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Should You Buy Polkadot While It's Under $5?

The Polkadot (CRYPTO: DOT) cryptocurrency is going through some pretty exciting changes these days. The Web3 Foundation's official crypto coin is becoming a distributed supercomputer, ready to provide a wide variety of apps and services. Yet, the coin price keeps falling.

Should you pick up a few Polkadot coins while they're available for less than $5 apiece? I think that's a good idea, and here's why.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

Polkadot's big internet ambitions

First things first. Polkadot was designed to support a Web3 future. The social networks and paywalls of the Web2 world were unstoppable over the last 20 years. These days, a lot of web users are getting tired of this aging structure, looking around for new ideas. The Web3 idea is one alternative, bringing more personal freedom and giving content creators more control over their creations. In this system, gigantic hubs of advertising and social media connections are replaced by decentralized services. And Polkadot's app-building ecosystem provides a handy platform to get all the Web3 ideas done in the real world.

It's still a futuristic ideology with just a handful of early success stories. But in the long run, Web3 apps could take over your online community connections, your day-to-day financial management processes, and your favorite channels for text, video, and audio infotainment. The tools won't even run in the centrally managed cloud you know and love today, but in a new global network of blockchain-based systems. When tweaked just right, the crypto world's smart contracts can run any kind of program and perform all sorts of services. And that's what Polkadot is doing, with the help of many other cryptocurrency systems.

Several gold and silver coins with various cryptocurrency logos, including a Polkadot coin in the corner.

Image source: Getty Images.

Meet JAM: The next big step in Polkadot's evolution

So far, Polkadot is mostly known for its ability to interact with other blockchain networks. This coin's smart contracts can tap into Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) monetary value storage, Ethereum's (CRYPTO: ETH) sophisticated contracts, and Chainlink's (CRYPTO: LINK) real-world data reports, just to name a few.

It's also known as a complicated and cumbersome system, but that's changing in 2025. Polkadot's central blockchain will soon be replaced by a more flexible and standards-based system known as JAM (the Joint-Accumulate Machine, if you're curious). This is actually a virtual machine in the blockchain universe. It can compile and run any code for bog-standard central processors, because it's a software-driven and full-featured RISC-V processor.

For example, Polkadot co-founder Gavin Wood has made it a habit to show off old-school computer games running on a test version of JAM. His personal laptop is good enough to make that work, but the full JAM upgrade will run on hundreds of server-class computers around the world. Imagine what this on-demand supercomputer can do for the Web3 vision.

Don't expect instant fireworks

JAM is coming up, probably in the second half of 2025. It won't cause an immediate frenzy in the Polkadot community, because it takes time for people to use new tools. Then the tools must create useful apps, which in turn need to find a target audience of actual users. So it's not a magic wand that will make Polkadot's developer community's dreams come true in a heartbeat, and it won't lift Polkadot's usage-based coin price right away.

But this is a much-needed step toward a true Web3 version of the online world. In the long run, I expect Web3 alternatives to disrupt the online experience as you know it today. Web2 leaders such as Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), Spotify (NYSE: SPOT), and TikTok will either join the Web3 revolution or put up roadblocks instead. I can't wait to see how true innovators like Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) will find their place in the Web3 era.

Take it easy out there, Polkadot investors

I could be wrong, of course. Web2 may stick around for another decade or two, as the current leaders focus on protecting the old social media world. Other cryptocurrencies can also support Web3-worthy apps, though they'll need to overcome Polkadot's built-in advantages first.

So I'm not betting the proverbial farm on Polkadot coins. I simply recommend any investor who agrees with the Web3 project's ideas to pick up a few Polkadot coins while they're cheap.

This cryptocurrency is only worth $6.6 billion today, which is a far cry from the trillion-dollar titans you see ruling today's Web2 structure. The coin price could multiply by 10 or 100 and still look small next to Meta and Alphabet. In short, Polkadot can be a big long-term winner even if it never matches the Magnificent 7 group's trillion-dollar market caps. I think that's worth a modest position in your long-term crypto portfolio.

Should you invest $1,000 in Polkadot right now?

Before you buy stock in Polkadot, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Polkadot wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $657,871!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $875,479!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 998% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 174% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Anders Bylund has positions in Alphabet, Bitcoin, Chainlink, Ethereum, Netflix, and Polkadot. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Bitcoin, Chainlink, Ethereum, Meta Platforms, Netflix, and Spotify Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Could Buying Netflix Today Set You Up for Life?

Shares of Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) have likely minted many millionaires over the years. If you had invested $10,000 in its initial public offering (IPO), you would have more than $10 million today.

There probably aren't too many who invested $10,000 at its IPO and still own Netflix stock today, which climbed and crashed on many occasions. But those who invested early and held their positions are enjoying fabulous returns.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

Although it isn't that young growth stock anymore, it has other things going for it. Today, it's a household name with formidable assets, and it's the leading paid streaming service. Can it still set you up for life today?

Streaming for all

Netflix has gone through several iterations on its way to becoming the leading global streaming company. It went public in 2002, five years before it became a streaming company. You would have had to have confidence in its chances as a DVD rental company to have invested at the time, so early investors either saw a great spark of innovation or were just lucky.

Today, the company services more than 300 million global viewers through its premium paid subscription channel as well as its relatively new ad-supported network. It generates increased revenue through more subscriptions, price hikes, and advertising. As more people join the ad-supported tier, it gets higher ad revenue through increased views.

Couple watching TV.

Image source: Getty Images.

The company uses a top-down margin model, which means it determines what kind of margin it wants to have and spends accordingly. That could restrain how much content it produced at a particular time, but it ensures efficiency and profitability.

In the 2025 first quarter, revenue increased 12.5% year over year, and operating income increased 27%. Operating margin expanded from 28.1% to 31.7%. Management is guiding for revenue to increase 15.4% in the second quarter and for an operating margin of 33.3%, up from 27.2% last year.

Upcoming opportunities

Netflix shifted directions several times in the past, from its origins as a DVD company to streaming, and from a premium network to offering the ad-supported tier. There have been worries multiple times about where it might be headed, but it has always landed on its feet and continued to run.

The accelerated shift to streaming that began when the pandemic started is still winding down, and that was followed by the ad tier and a pivot to offering gaming. There hasn't been a shortage of new opportunities over the past few years, but I wouldn't be able to envision what the next stage could be.

The field is quite full today, with many of the smaller players consolidating or breaking up, figuring out where they belong in the world of streaming. Netflix has been the steady and stable leader throughout this time.

The company now produces world-class films that can compete with the best studios. It has had some limited runs of its films in theaters, but it hasn't taken that route as a significant part of its operating model. Although that could change if it makes sense, as streaming has eaten away at the box office, it doesn't seem that theaters are the next step for Netflix at this time.

Many companies have made the mistake of entering new areas that would seem complementary instead of focusing on their core competencies. It's always a balance for an innovator, and it could be something lucrative at some point in time.

A hefty price to pay

Netflix stock has delivered for shareholders, and it has a premium price tag to show for it. It trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 57 and a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 13.

It was recently reported that management had plans to reach a market cap of $1 trillion by 2030. That implies the stock almost doubling, and it's not really within its control.

However, it can take action to generate higher sales and profits and boost its price. I think that's an ambitious goal, but while possible, it's not likely. Netflix is a mature company, and it would have to keep up the growth it's reporting today to double revenue over the next five years -- it would require a compound annual growth rate of 15%.

However, that assumes the same premium P/S. If that goes down, it won't be able to double its market cap even with those growth rates.

So, unless you invest a lot of money and have a long time horizon, I don't think Netflix stock will set you up for life. But it can still be a valuable part of a wealth-creating portfolio and grow over time.

Should you invest $1,000 in Netflix right now?

Before you buy stock in Netflix, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Netflix wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $657,871!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $875,479!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 998% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 174% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025

Jennifer Saibil has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Is Roku Stock a Long-Term Buy?

At first glance, Roku (NASDAQ: ROKU) looks like a terrible investment. Earnings are negative. Sales are rising, but much more slowly than they were four years ago. The stock trades at an unaffordable valuation of 125 times forward earnings estimates. After a long-forgotten price spike in the pandemic lockdown era, Roku's stock fell hard and then traded sideways over the last three years.

But if you look a bit closer, you should see a healthy long-term growth story in play. Roku targets a huge global market, following in the footsteps of proven winners, and the stock doesn't appear expensive at all from other perspectives.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

It's actually one of my favorite stocks to buy in 2025, and Roku should be a helpful addition to long-term portfolios.

Breaking down common concerns about Roku stock

Let me deconstruct the scary qualities I mentioned above.

Negative earnings

Roku's red-ink earnings are at least partly a voluntary choice. The company treats its streaming hardware as a marketing tool, selling Roku sticks and TV sets below the manufacturing and distribution costs. This user-growth tactic is especially unprofitable in Roku's highest-volume sales periods. The holiday quarter of 2024, for example, nearly quadrupled the devices segment's negative gross margin from 7.6% in the third quarter to 28.6% in the fourth.

In other words, Roku is running its business with unprofitable profit margins to maximize its market reach and user growth. Furthermore, I'm talking about generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which is the standard accounting method used for calculating taxes. Roku often posts negative GAAP earnings that result in tax refunds rather than expenses.

At the same time, free cash flows tend to land on the positive side with modest cash profits. That's just efficient accounting powered by stock-based compensation and amortization of Roku's media-streaming content library.

Slowing sales growth

Roku's year-over-year sales growth has averaged 14.7% over the last two years. That's a sharp retreat from 40.9% in the three years before that. But don't forget that the extreme growth was driven by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Lots of people turned to digital media during the lockdown period, resulting in a unique business spike for companies like Roku and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX). The pandemic also happened to take place just months after Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) launched the Disney+ streaming service, inspiring a torrent of copycat service launches. Long story short, there may never be a media market like the one in 2020-2021 again. Holding on to nearly half of that nitro-boosted growth rate in recent years is actually really good.

Sky-high valuation

Let me point back to the voluntary GAAP losses. Roku isn't trying to generate huge taxable profits at this time, which makes price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios largely unusable. Even the forward-looking version of this common metric relies on Roku's guidance targets filtered through Wall Street's analysis. If anything, the analyst community's projections are more optimistic than Roku's official targets. Management expects a $30 million GAAP loss in fiscal year 2025, which would work out to another "not applicable" P/E ratio.

If you look at other valuation metrics, Roku starts to look like a bargain. Trading at 2.6 times trailing sales, the stock is comparable to slow-growth giants such as Caterpillar or Unilever. Roku also seems undervalued, if you base your analysis on its robust balance sheet, with a price-to-book ratio of 4.4 and a price-to-cash multiple of 4.9.

Two people in different moods share a TV couch. One smiles at the screen and the other looks away.

Image source: Getty Images.

The stock seems stuck

I'll admit that Roku's stalled stock chart can be frustrating. Share prices are down 17% over the last three years, missing out on 44% growth in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) market index. Roku's sales are up 45% over this period, while free cash flow rose by 66%. When will the big payoff come, rewarding patient shareholders for Roku's quiet success?

That's OK, though. Keeping stock prices low just gives investors more time to build those Roku positions. I have bought Roku more often than any other stock since the spring of 2022, and I might not be done adding shares yet. Whenever I have spare cash ready for investments, Roku pops up as a top idea. That remains true in June 2025. So, let the chart slouch lower. Affordable buy-in prices can set you up for tremendous long-term returns.

Should you invest $1,000 in Roku right now?

Before you buy stock in Roku, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Roku wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $669,517!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $868,615!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 792% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 173% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025

Anders Bylund has positions in Netflix, Roku, and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix, Roku, and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool recommends Unilever. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Is Starbucks Serving Up Promise or Peril?

In this podcast, Motley Fool analyst Asit Sharma and host Mary Long discuss:

  • What to do with 2 extra minutes.
  • Earnings from Starbucks.
  • What's cooking at Wingstop.

Then, Motley Fool analyst Yasser el-Shimy joins Mary for a look at Warner Brothers Discovery, in the first of a two-part series about the entertainment conglomerate and its controversial CEO.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. When you're ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy.

A full transcript is below.

Should you invest $1,000 in Starbucks right now?

Before you buy stock in Starbucks, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Starbucks wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $623,685!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $701,781!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 906% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 164% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 5, 2025

This video was recorded on April 30, 2025

Mary Long: A dollar saved is a dollar earned, so a minute saved is what? You're listening to Motley Fool Money. I'm Mary Long joined today by Mr. Asit Sharma. Asit, good to see you. How are you doing?

Asit Sharma: I'm great, Mary. How are you doing? Good to see you.

Mary Long: I'm doing well. We got reports from Starbucks today, that's the coffee chain that most listeners are probably pretty familiar with. They're in the midst of a turnaround. They dropped earnings yesterday after the bell. I want to kick us off by focusing on Starbucks' measurement of a different currency, not dollars, but time, Asit. A big focus of Starbucks' turnaround is returning the chain to its golden age of being a neighborhood coffee house. But as a part of that, there's also a focus on efficiency. Management seems to think they're making good progress on that efficiency front. The company shaved two minutes off its in store wait times thanks to the help of a swinky ordering algorithm. If you had an extra two minutes in each of your days, what would you be doing with that time?

Asit Sharma: Well, I'm not giving it back to TikTok and YouTube shorts, I'm done with you guys. I'm grabbing the cast iron bookmark, breaking out of that house, and I'm getting two minutes extra to read Orbital by Samantha Harvey, which is my Middle Age men's book club read of the month, and I'm behind, I need it finished by Saturday.

Mary Long: It sounds like you're being very productive with those extra two minutes.

Asit Sharma: Living my best life.

Mary Long: There's a detail here that's very interesting to me because notably, this algorithm that's shaved off these two minutes of order times is not powered by artificial intelligence. Instead, it follows an if then structure. This is fascinating to me because it seems like every other company is going out of their way to highlight its AI capabilities, build themselves as an AI company, even if they don't really play in the tech space. What does it say about Starbucks that they seemingly have an opportunity to do that with the rollout of this algorithm and yet they're not?

Asit Sharma: Well, on the one hand, I think they would love to be able to float some great AI stuff to the market, but truthfully, everyone knows that it's going to take more than AI to solve Starbucks' problems, so let's get real here and go back to some very elementary type of algorithmic thinking to solve some of the throughput issues they have.

Mary Long: Again, Starbucks seems pretty proud of these shorter wait times, but that doesn't necessarily seem to be translating into great sales numbers quite yet. I'm going to call out some metrics from the report, including same store sales, which is closely watched here, and you tell me how you're interpreting these numbers. Do they spell to you, Asit Sharma, promise or peril for the coffee company? We'll kick things off with same store sales. In the US, that's down about 3% for the quarter. What do you say, Asit, promise, peril, something in between?

Asit Sharma: I think that's an easy peril. This is the trend at Starbucks. They're losing a little bit of traffic. They're trying to turn it around to get people to come back into the stores or come back to the drive throughs. They have a strategy for this, back to the good old days. We can chat about this. But this is emblematic of Starbucks larger problem, so this is a peril call, easy.

Mary Long: Two hundred and thirteen net new store openings in the second quarter, bringing the total store count to nearly 40,800 around the world. Promise, peril, something in between?

Asit Sharma: Promise. I like that. Brian Niccol, turnaround artist. Let's slow this puppy down. Why should we be expanding when we don't have the unit economics right? Why should we be expanding when CapEx, capital expenditure is one of the things dragging this company down? Most people don't realize Starbucks has a pretty big debt load because it has invested so much in its stores over the years. Why don't we try to figure out how we can solve some of our problems with operating expenses versus capital expenditure? Let's also try to renovate stores at a lower cost. All of this points to taking it very easy on that new store development, so I like that, it's promise.

Mary Long: Just to be clear, you're saying that that 213 net new store openings number sits right at the sweet spot of, Hey, you're still growing, but it's at a small enough clip that it's not distracting from the real focus, which is improving throughput at existing stores?

Asit Sharma: Yeah. It's also a signal that the new management isn't taking the easy way out. Conceivably, one way you could solve Starbucks' problems would be to take on a little bit more debt and to speed up new stores and to say, We're going to actually increase revenue, but traffic will take a bit of time to come back to the stores. We know people of our brand, so we're going to throw a bunch more stores out in places where we don't have this dense concentration and cannibalization. We're going to map this great real estate strategy out. They could have easily said that, but I don't think the market would have liked it too much, so they're doing the sensible thing, which is like, we're not really worried about adding new stores right now, that's not the problem that we have to solve today.

Mary Long: Our next quick hit metric, GAAP operating margin down about 7% compared to a year ago. How do you feel about that one?

Asit Sharma: It's a little bit of peril situation going on there, Mary. Starbucks is doing something which I think should help the business, which is to say, we've got a couple of pain points for customers. One is the time that it takes for customers to get through their order, average wait times of four minutes. You pointed out going this algorithmic route, so very old school. If a drink is very complex to make, don't make that the first thing you do, or in some cases, maybe you should if it has x number of ingredients, so that way it's ready and the stuff isn't melting on top when the customer gets it. Don't just do first come first serve. I think that is a really insightful way to start from scratch if you're a new CEO. Starbucks has these problems which they're thinking can be solved by labor. Then bring more people in so that we can satisfy customers, we can keep that throughput moving, but that increases your operating expenses, and they've got leftover depreciation from all of the investments they've made in technology.

Under the previous CEO, they were trying to solve their problems by having more components like the clover vertica which make things automatic, and they had a cool brew system, which was very expensive, so now we're seeing that work through the profit and loss statement. What we're seeing in the GAAP numbers is that net income is going to be pressured. Number 1, they still have a lot of depreciation that they have to account for, and Number 2, to keep customers happy, which should be the first order of business, they're going to have to hire more baristas, keep those shifts occupied. That is not a clear out type situation, it will take time to resolve. That's a peril.

Mary Long: Last but not least, we got GAAP earnings per share. That's down about 50% compared to a year ago. I think I know where you might land on this one. What do you say?

Asit Sharma: It's a peril. Something that was a little iffy in the earnings call is both Brian Niccol and his new CFO, who's actually a veteran of the retail business, Cathy Smith. They were like, don't worry about earnings per share too much. We really think you should focus on us taking care of the customer, us becoming that third place again, us becoming the brand that attracts people, us being the place where you can have these day parts like the afternoon where we're going to revive your desire to come into the store and maybe have a non alcoholic aperitif, mind you, I'm not sure that's what investors want to hear. Investors will give a long line to Brian Niccol because he has been successful in the past, and so has his new CFO. But I didn't like that, don't pay attention to this because we're investors, we want money. We give you money, you make money, you give us back money in terms of dividends and share price, so a little bit of peril there.

Mary Long: Another data point that I do think is relevant to the Starbucks story and just like the consumer story more broadly is GDP data, which we got out this morning. That showed a contraction of 0.3% down from 2.4% growth a quarter ago. This is the first decline since the start of 2022. Starbucks can improve wait times all they want, they can implement this back to Starbucks strategy, but if we are headed toward a recession and the company is already still struggling, how does that macro picture affect this chain that sells seven dollars drip coffees and $10 lattes to people?

Asit Sharma: Mary, the first thing I'm going to ask you is, I actually throw circumstance Kanata Starbucks once every two weeks, and I buy drip coffee and sometimes hot chocolate, and we'll buy a pastry here and there. Where are you getting these seven dollar drip coffees from? Is that some venti with adding some special milk? I don't get that. It is expensive, stop, but seven sounds excessive.

Mary Long: Okay, Asit. I was at a Marriott Hotel earlier this month for a latte.

Asit Sharma: Here we have the first qualification. Like, well, I was at the airport Starbucks. It's not the airport Starbucks, but everyone listen to Mary. It was at Marriott Hotel. Go ahead.

Mary Long: There are some asterisks attached to this example, but it fired me up, so I'm going to use this platform to share it. I'm at Marriott in Collierville Tennessee for a wedding earlier this month. There is no free coffee in the lobby at this hotel, which was my first red flag. I go down searching for coffee, and all that there is is a Starbucks Bistro, so I say, Okay, I'll go to the Starbucks Bistro, buy my coffee. It was a large, but it was a drip coffee. No fills, so easy, they turn around, pour the cup, and it cost me $7.50. I was so enraged, I was ready to throw that coffee across the lobby. I did not. I held it in, but I'm using this moment to share that. That is a real number. Though, again, perhaps that's not the price at every Starbucks.

Asit Sharma: Well, I want to extrapolate from that. Which is to say, if it's seven bucks at that Marriott, that tells us something about what's happened to the price over the last few years because in all honesty, that entry level drip coffee, a tall order with nothing on it has increased. I'm going to guess it's 30-40% more than it was just two years ago. Now, some may say that this is taking a little bit advantage of commodity inflation and inflation in general, that Starbucks took an opportunity to bump up those prices, even though it has tremendous purchasing power, and it should be one of the first places to say, Hey, we're going to hold your price steady because we're Starbucks, because we buy from I don't know how many coffee providers across the globe. It's interesting Brian Niccol is saying, We're not going to raise prices anymore this year. I think he's sensing the winds and maybe realizes that Starbucks took a little bit of advantage of its most loyal customers by bumping up these prices.

This is yet another thing that makes this very hard. But all in all, I do want to give the new team credit for leaning toward, again, OpEx people versus machines because under the previous management, Starbucks was really thinking that it could solve so many things by having automation. They could improve the rate at which people are going through the drive through lines and the wait times that you have even if you ordered in advance on your mobile order app, and it became something where they lost connection with the customer, and management, of course, is well aware of that. But it reminds me of something that Ray Kroc said years ago, the man who bought McDonald's when it was all of two restaurants, I think, and turned it into what it is today, he said, Hell, if I listened to the computers and did what they proposed with McDonald's, I'd have a store with a row of vending machines in it. Under the previous leadership, I almost felt like that's where they thought they could go, it's just a really automated format without this customer connection. Bringing that back, even though it sounds a little iffy, Mary, whoever is going to go back to Starbucks as a real third place when so many great community coffee shops have sprung up and our consumption preferences have changed? I still applaud management for getting that, that you've got to do right by your customers, price wise, ambience wise, connection wise, brand wise. Maybe there's something in there. Of course, this is a harder problem to solve than Brian Niccol had at Chipotle.

Mary Long: I want to close this out by getting another look at the fast casual business from a different company, one that really is leaning more into this digital landscape, and that's Wingstop. Not even a year ago, this chicken wing joint was flying very high, indeed. Shares have dropped significantly since then, down about 45% from their high in September 2024. We're going to get to their earnings that dropped this morning, which were more positive in just a moment, but before we get them, let's look at the past several months. Why that drop? What headwinds was this company up against?

Asit Sharma: Wingstop created its own headwinds in a way, Mary, because it had been so successful improving same store sales. The company has a really light real estate footprint, stores are incredibly small compared to some of their wing competitors, and they're meant for just going in, maybe sitting down, but mostly picking up and taking away. They really started to get a deeper concentration, some good metropolitan markets, not huge ones, but decent markets. They saw such an increase in traffic that their comparable stores went through the roof on what's called a two year stack. You compare what you sold today versus not just one year, but two years ago. When you lap great results, it becomes really hard. You can't keep increasing those results exponentially. This year, it turns out what they're doing is holding the gains over the past two years, but it's not like they're having another year where you're seeing same store sales increase by 25%. The projections were, this year we're going to grow those same store sales by mid digits to single high digits, and with this latest report, they're saying, Well, they could be flat this year. The market like the report for different reasons. But that's what happened to the stock because investors were like, Wait a minute. You're spending more on marketing. Yeah, because we're getting to the NBA. We're the official wing of the NBA. But I want those profits. Well, you're not going to get them because we're scaling, and people are just lining up to develop new franchises, and we're going to build this business out globally.

Investors were a little bit confused last quarter. We're not getting profits that we want or as much profit as we want. We're not getting the growth that we want to see. But in the grand scheme of things, those were very understandable pauses in the business model and the economic model, and I think over time, it's destined to pick up. But you had some questions about the earnings today.

Mary Long: Help us make sense of this most recent quarter because, OK, we saw a teeny tiny improvement in same-store sales. That number only ticked up by 0.5%. But there are some other numbers that seemed pretty impressive. You've got systemwide sales increasing almost 16%, hitting $1.3 billion, total revenue up almost 17.5%, net income increasing, wait for it, 221%. That's all in spite of what's obviously a very tricky, very uncertain macro environment. We've already seen that impact trickle down to other fast-casual chains. Domino's, for instance, reported a decline in same-store sales earlier this week, which is pretty rare for them. What's working and what's not in the Wingstop model, as we've just seen it reported today?

Asit Sharma: Wingstop has been a company that's invested a lot in its technology. They've moved digital orders to some, I think, 70% now of their sales. That helps them with a leaner cost structure. Also, Mary, the company has its tremendous cash on cash returns. If you're an investor, let's say, a franchisee in a Wingstop business, you can make 70% cash on cash returns, 50% if you use financing, and that's just a stellar type of return in the QSR, quick service restaurant industry. What they have is tremendous demand in their development pipeline. Their franchise groups are like, we love this, we want more, and that's propelling a really fast store growth count. With Starbucks, they're slowing down. Wingstop is trying to build out new units as fast as possible, and that's where the growth is coming from. What investors are seeing is, I can live with this equation. You have a lean operation. You don't really own your own supply chain. You work with partners, so you've got less exposure to that. You seem to be able to manage all-important bone-in chicken price really well and not pass those increases on to customers for the most part, so I want in and I want to develop more stores.

I will note that the company, one of the things that investors did like earlier this year, is the company keeps increasing its total advertising spend based on systemwide sales. It used to be 3%. Then it was 4% of systemwide sales was advertising budget for local markets. Now it's something like 5.5%. But look, with these big brand partnerships, like I mentioned with the NBA, and a lot more advertising in local markets, that's only increasing the flywheel of returns for the franchisees. This is a company that just looks destined to grow, almost like Dunkin' Donuts did in the early days. That's. A powerful equation for investors who can withstand the volatility of angst over same-store sales in any given quarter. Think of this as like, I'm going to buy this business for 10 years, and I'm going to watch it expand into Europe, into the Middle East, here in the States, and I'm going to watch you take market share from some of the bigger competitors who have larger store footprints. Of course, there's a lot that can go wrong in that. They have to keep executing and they have to make sure that they do manage those all-important bone-in chicken cost over time. But I like their chances in this environment.

Mary Long: Asit Sharma, always a pleasure to have you on the show. Thanks so much for giving us some insight into coffee and bone-in chicken wings today.

Asit Sharma: Thanks a lot, Mary. I had a lot of fun.

Mary Long: Two of the biggest movies of the year, a Minecraft movie and Sinners, both came out of Warner Brothers Studios. But there's a lot more to this company than its movie-baking business. Despite the success of those two films, the stock WBD has been far from a winner for its shareholders. Up next, I talk to Fool analyst Yasser El-Shimy about Warner Brothers Discovery. This is the first in a two-part series. Today, we talk about the business. Tomorrow, we shine the spotlight on David Zaslav; the character charged with leading this conglomerate into the future.

Warner Brothers Discovery came to be as a result of a 2022 merger between Warner Media, which is the film and television studio that was spun off from AT&T, and Discovery, another television studio. Together, today, this is a massive entertainment conglomerate, and it owns the likes of HBO, Max, CNN, Discovery Plus, the Discovery Channel; a mix of streaming services and traditional cable networks. One of the reasons, Yasser, why I find this company so interesting is because you can't really talk too much about it without hearing all these different names, all these different services, a fascinating history of mergers and acquisitions and spin-offs, etc. I want to focus today mostly on the person who has been tasked with leading this massive conglomerate into the shaky future of media. But before we get to David Zaslav, let's talk first about the company. Again, WBD is a big conglomerate. What are the most important things about this business as it exists today that investors need to know?

Yasser El-Shimy: Well, thanks, Mary. To tell the story of WBD is to almost tell the story of entertainment itself in the United States. We're talking about structural challenges that are afflicting almost all television and film studios across the board, as well as TVs on TV networks. On the one hand, you have a structural decline of linear TV viewership. That is your basic cable, basically people, paying a monthly fee for whatever provider there might be to get a whole host of channels that they flip through at home. We've heard of the phenomena of cord-cutting. It has almost become a cliche at this point. It has been going on for years, at least over a decade at this point, but recently, it seems to have accelerated even further as people migrate more and more toward streaming options, subscribing to such channels as Netflix and Disney+ and Max and others. This has created quite a dilemma for a lot of studios like Warner Brothers Discovery, where much of the profits and the free cash flow has traditionally come from those very lucrative linear TV deals that they have had with the likes of Charter Communications and others. They have had to effectively wage a war on two fronts. They are being disrupted by the likes of Netflix, they're losing subscribers on the linear TV site, but at the same time, they can't go all in on streaming, at least not just yet, because so much of their profit and so much of their sales actually come from that linear TV side that is declining.

What do you do? You try and just be everything to all people, and that has become a challenge. Warner Brothers is no different here. We're talking about a company that started off in 2022, as a result of that merger. You talked about between Discovery and Warner Brothers. Since then, they have focused on two main objectives. The first one is to pay down as much of the debt on the balance sheet as possible, and we can get to that later, and the second goal has been to try and effectively promote and develop their streaming business. Initially, it was HBO Plus, now it's called Max, and try and actively compete with the likes of Netflix and Disney. They've actually done rather OK on that front, as well.

Mary Long: Let's talk about the debt before we move on because this is a big gripe with the business as it exists today. Warner Brothers Discovery carries $34.6 billion in net debt. That's as of the end of fiscal 2024. You get to that number because there's $40 billion gross debt minus $5.5 billion of cash on hand. How did they end up with so much debt? $34.6 billion is a lot of debt. How did they end up with so much of that in the first place?

Yasser El-Shimy: That is a lot of debt. Let's just say that David Zaslav who was the head of Discovery, he was very enthusiastic about putting his hands on those assets from Warner Brothers. As a result, he actually saw that merger with the Warner Brothers assets from AT&T. AT&T took a huge loss on the price it had originally paid to acquire Time Warner, a 40% loss. However, what they did do is that they effectively put all the debt that they had from that business, as well as some of their own debt, into this new entity that was to merge with Discovery. Warner Brothers Discovery just was born with a massive debt load of $55 billion or so. That was nearly five times net debt to EBITDA, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, which was very high leverage for this new company. From the very beginning, Warner Brothers Discovery had to deal with paying down that huge debt load. Luckily, a lot of that debt was in long-term debt effectively that most of it will mature around 2035. Can be easily rolled over. It has an average interest rate of about 4.7%. It's not the worst in the world. Considering how much cash flow per year that Warner Brothers Discovery is able to produce around, again, the $5 billion range or more, you can see that the company has been able to effectively navigate this and pay down that debt. David Zaslav has paid down over around $12 billion since that merger took place. That leaves them with the $40 billion you're talking about. Still more to go, but at least you can see that they are able to accomplish that feat.

Mary Long: Let's also hit on the streaming service because that's an essential part WBD and where it wants to go in the future. Max, which is the streaming service that's basically HBO plus others allegedly has a clear path to hitting, this is per their most recent earnings, at least 150 million global subscribers by the end of 2026. At 150 million global subscribers, that would make it about half of Netflix's current size. What metrics and what numbers does Max have to post in order to be considered a success?

Yasser El-Shimy: I would say that Max has to, again, focus on growing that subscriber base, and they have done an excellent job at that. They've almost doubled subscribers year over year, reaching around 117 million subscribers currently. They accomplished that through a strategy that had two wings to it. The first is that they effectively bundled a lot of content into the Max service. The previous HBO Plus service, it merely had some TV and film IP that the studios produced from the namesake HBO, but also from the Warner Brothers Studios. But then they decided to expand that to include also shows and other content from the reality TV side of the Discovery side of the business. Think of your home network, HGTV, or Food Network, and so on. They accommodate a lot of that content in there. They also introduced live sports and live news into the Max. That made it a lot more appealing to be a place where you can have almost all of your viewing needs met. That has been a successful strategy for them. They have also struck a partnership with Disney to bundle Disney+, Hulu, and Max together for a reduced price, but that has definitely also helped with the increase in their subscription numbers. But I would also be remiss to say that they have successfully and actively sought to expand their presence in international markets.

They are still at less than half the markets where Netflix is, so the opportunity is still pretty vast on there. However, as you started your question with asking about the metrics that we need to be watching out for, obviously, we need to be watching out, as I said, for subscriber numbers, as well as the EBITDA operating margins that will come from the streaming side. They are targeting around 20%, which would actually very good if that turns out to be the case, long term. But also we need to look at things like average revenue per user or ARPU. How much are these subscribers contributing, both to the top and bottom line for Max? I think on this metric, there might be a little less confidence because especially when you expand internationally, you're going to get a lot of subscribers who are not paying as much as a US subscriber might, so you might be looking at a decline there. On the bright side, they've introduced advertising as part of the package, but the basic package that you get. That strategy we have seen it successfully play out with Netflix, and I think that they may be able to increase or ad revenue on Max, and that can be a big contributor for their profits as well.

Mary Long: As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. For the Motley Fool Money Team, I'm Mary Long. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.

Asit Sharma has positions in Marriott International, McDonald's, Walt Disney, and Wingstop. Mary Long has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Yasser El-Shimy has positions in Warner Bros. Discovery and Wingstop. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix, Starbucks, Walt Disney, and Warner Bros. Discovery. The Motley Fool recommends Marriott International and Wingstop. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

A Steady Business During Uncertain Times

In this podcast, Motley Fool analyst Jason Moser and host Ricky Mulvey discuss:

  • How trade disputes are impacting the Port of Los Angeles.
  • What PayPal's advertising business means for its growth story.
  • Earnings from Spotify.

Then, Motley Fool personal finance expert Robert Brokamp joins Ricky to discuss how to diversify your savings.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. When you're ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy.

A full transcript is below.

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This video was recorded on April 29, 2025

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Ricky Mulvey: The ships are slowing down. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. 'm Ricky Mulvey joined today by Jason Moser, the man who can do it all by himself. Jason, thanks for being here, man.

Jason Moser: Thank you for having me, Ricky. How's everything going?

Ricky Mulvey: It's going pretty well. I'm going to Casa Bonita tonight, which I feel like is a real introduction to Denver, and I will tell you about what that is maybe after the show, because we got a lot of news to break down.

Jason Moser: Yes, we do.

Ricky Mulvey: Let's get to this story. We have a lot of earnings going on, but I think this macro story is worthy of investors attention. Gene Seroka is the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, and anytime you start getting port directors going on cable news, it's usually not a great sign for the economy, JMo. He went on CNBC's Squawk Box, and he said that he expects cargo volume to be down by more than a third next week, compared to last year, and that a number of major American retailers are stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs. To lay out the law, who's getting hurt by this?

Jason Moser: Maybe the better question is, who isn't getting hurt by this? Because it does seem like something that is going to hurt an awful lot of folks covering the spectrum there. I think, generally speaking, small businesses stand out as ones getting a bit more hurt by this, at least in the near term. They tend to not have the same financial resources and are a little bit more dependent on imports and whatnot. I think large companies like Walmart, your Costcos of the world, they're able to shoulder the burden more just because of their scale. Now, with that said, I will say Walmart is particularly levered to China, for example. It's estimated that 60-70% of Walmart's globally sourced products actually come from China. Even more noteworthy, I think there is market research that suggests that figure could be closer to 70-80% for merchandise sold in the US so they're not immune, but they have the ability to shoulder that burden. They can handle it and bye their time as all of this tariff stuff plays out. I think ultimately that really points to the biggest question mark in regard to all of this is just when is this going to ultimately be resolved? And that is still just very unclear, but there's just no question, small businesses are going to feel the brunt of this very quickly.

Ricky Mulvey: Well, I think there will at least be an inflection point when these decreased shiploads lead to empty shelves in physical stores and on online stores like Amazon. I've noticed that these looming tariffs have absolutely impacted my shopping habits. Are you doing any pre tariff shopping in the Moser household right now?

Jason Moser: I have not yet, but it is still early. Now, when I start seeing Chewy telling me that our dog and cat food is out of stock and that shipment's not coming, then I know I've got serious problems because I have three dogs and a cat that won't stand for that, and I can't explain it to him either. But as of now, listen, I've got a garage full of toilet paper and paper towels so I think we at least have the necessities for now.

Ricky Mulvey: You've got a big yard, and you just might need to learn how to hunt in order to provide for your dogs. I've noticed it over here, I just bought a set of AirPods because I'm like, Oh, these are made in China and better get them while I can, first of all, get them and while they're on sale. I've been stocking up on clothes just because I don't know what's going to happen to the shelves. I don't know if my size is going to be impacted, but yeah, it's absolutely impacted my shopping habits, Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok released a presentation earlier this month, and he laid out a timeline for tariffs, and there's a slide with the spicy title for a PowerPoint slide, the voluntary trade reset recession. Points out early mid May, that's when you start seeing those containerships come to a stop. Then in mid to late May, that's when trucking demand also comes to a halt a fewer trucks are taking things off containerships. Then right in that late May, early June window, that's when you're going to see empty shelves and companies responding to lower sales. What do you think about that timeline?

Jason Moser: I think it's certainly a potential outcome in theory. Now, if that happens, I think there will be massive political consequences. We have to look at this and say well, This is self inflicted. We started this, and it's a matter of trying to figure out, ultimately what the goal is here, and I think that is still unclear, and we're operating just on this day to day headline economy, so to speak. My hope is that this is a worst case scenario and that cooler heads prevail sooner rather than later. But listen, we're just getting ready to start May here, very soon so that's not far off and if that happens, clearly, the consumer will have their say.

Ricky Mulvey: Let's take a look at PayPal reported this morning, and JMo is an investor in this company. I'm pretty happy to own a company that's not making big moves on earnings right now. I'll take some stability that seems to be what PayPal is offering, revenue up 2% on a currency neutral basis. Transaction margin dollars, which is just direct transaction revenue minus transaction expenses. Think things like payment processing, and PayPal likes that is a core measure of its profitability. That was up 7% to about $3.7 billion. Free cash flow, and adjusted free cash flow, both down from last year by about 45% in a quarter respectively. There's some cash flow questions, some operating profitability targets happening. What are your big takeaways from the quarter?

Jason Moser: Yeah, I think it was an OK quarter. It was right in that meaty part of the curve, as George Costanza might say. Not showing off, not falling behind. It was their fifth consecutive quarter of profitable growth, which I think is really encouraging for Alex Chriss. As you mentioned, revenue growth was really non existent, but I wouldn't really look into that as much. I think what we're seeing with PayPal, they're doing a very good job of bringing things down to the bottom line. We saw GAAP earnings per share, up 56%, non GAP earnings per share, up 23%, and really just flew past the guidance that they offered from a quarter ago. I think when you look at the metrics that really matter for the business, things like total payment volume that was up 3%. $417 billion going through those networks there. This is up 4% currency neutral, payment transactions and payment transactions per active account saw a little bit of a decrease, but that's in regard to the payment service provider part of PayPal so, ultimately, those numbers actually excluding that payment service provider part of the business were up as well, and active accounts grew 2% to 436 million.

Remember, they went through just a period not too long ago of trying to call a lot of those inactive accounts that really aren't using the service, so to speak. But returned 1.5 billion dollar to shareholders with share repurchases, which I think was very encouraging. In regard to cash flow, I think the one thing with cash flow with PayPal, it's going to ebb and flow a little bit, particularly because of the buy now pay later side of the business, that fell a little bit, just because of some timing stuff between originating some European buy now pay later receivables and then the ultimate sale of those receivables so I wouldn't read too much into that. This is still a business that generates a ton of cash.

The one thing that stood out to me, though in the quarter that I just can't help but wonder what the future holds for this, because PayPal is building out this little ads part of the business right now, PayPal ads, and they're making some progress. I don't know is this a sneaky ad play? It could be, they're starting to introduce programmatic advertising, and they're starting to launch offsite ads, which ultimately those are ads that are generated from all of this data that PayPal and Venmo and those properties get. that's the beauty of this company. They generate a ton of data because of the consumers that use these services so it reminds me a little bit of Amazon back in the day. If you remember with Amazon, several years back, we knew they were getting into advertising, but didn't really know if it was going to be anything material so it was starting from nothing. But you fast forward to today, Amazon is generating they're on a $70 billion run rate for their advertising business alone. Now, I'm not saying that PayPal could get to that scale. But I do think PayPal could get to meaningful scale relative to its business, and that is very high margin revenue. I think that's going to be something fun to follow with this company as time goes on, particularly as they're launching this offsite advertising business.

Ricky Mulvey: I think one of my big questions then for PayPal's future is the buy now pay later initiative. You see here, Alex Chriss, touting the growth in that in that people are when they use buy now pay later, they're making more transactions. But if we're skidding into a self induced recession, there may be consequences for that, and on a personal level, I'm not super thrilled about buy now pay later. I understand it's part of the business. But speaking strictly as an investor is a growth lever. If you're looking at the growth in that and you're also seeing credit card delinquencies going up, maybe that's not a great thing for that part of PayPal's business.

Jason Moser: I think that's a very valid point. Buy now pay later is just credit card ultimately in another form and you have to count on the fact that some of those loans, so to speak, are not going to pan out, and they're going to write off delinquencies and non payments there. We are seeing consumers relying more and more on buy now pay later for. Buy now pay later, it's a clever product for things that maybe aren't necessities, but when you start seeing data that shows consumers are using buy now pay later for things like their groceries, that's where you start wondering what is the real condition or what is the real state of the consumer? And when you see consumers resorting to BNPL for necessities like groceries, that starts to raise at least some yellow flags in the near term.

Ricky Mulvey: What do you think about CEO Alex Chriss reaffirming the full year guidance? We talked about the macro pressures that will have an impact on this company. A lot of PayPal transactions are consumer spending. If you're in the office of the CEO, what are you telling him? Are you telling him to pool lower guidance? What's going on with that?

Jason Moser: I wouldn't tell him to pull guidance necessarily. I think that what we've seen with Chriss over the couple of years that he's been with the company at this point, he seems to at least like to underpromise and overdeliver I like that. Now, some people will call that sandbagging. I don't care, whatever you want to call it, it's fine on me. But he sets the bar fairly reasonably so he's not setting these super high aspirations, and we know how that works. You set the bar high, eventually, you miss it, and the market really punishes you. But if you set the bar just not low, but just right there in that mid range, that goldilocks range you can hit those targets, you can continue to grow at modest rates, and you're not disappointing the market in the near term. You're not really thrilling everybody in the near term either, but at least you're able to hit those targets and keep on moving the business in the direction that you intend. I don't mind them maintaining that guidance because it does seem like they are offering relatively modest expectations. But as we know, and we're seeing as the headlines change day to day, things can materialize very quickly so it'll be something to keep an eye on for sure.

Ricky Mulvey: Let's go to Spotify real quick. Monthly active users growing 10% for the company. Premium subs grew 12%, but the analysts did not like the user growth projections. That's why the stock is getting punished a little bit. CEO Daniel Ek quickly on the conference call saying we could be impacted by tariffs, but people still want to be entertained. They want to learn stuff they want to listen to music. Before we get into the meat of this conversation, JMo, we have a content partnership with Spotify. The Motley Fool actively recommends the stock, I own the stock. How's that for bias? I also want their algorithm to promote this podcast, as well. I'm speaking from a pretty biased perspective but still, in my view, a pretty strong company when you're looking into the actual business results, anything there stand out to you from Spotify's quarter.

Jason Moser: The stock has been on a heck of a run here recently so a little pullback is understandable. There was a bit of a miss on operating income there, and that was due to what they were calling social charge, what they call social charges, which are ultimately payroll taxes associated with employees salaries and benefits in other countries. But to me, this is still just such a strong business. You see the growth in the users, whether it's premium or ad supported. It's amazing to see what this business has become, and it's evolving so far beyond being like a music streaming app. I think that when you consider that you consider the fact that Spotify has such strong market share in the entertainment industry at large, to me I understand there are some macro concerns there in the near term, but I think when you look at it, at the end of the day, Spotify and things like Netflix, those are the subscriptions that consumers will probably cut last. The value-focused consumer is looking for value and understanding what are they getting for their dollar. That monthly charge for Spotify or for something like Netflix, given how much we all use those, they, I think, give this company a resiliency that probably more don't have.

Ricky Mulvey: We'll leave it there. Jason Moser, thanks for being here. Appreciate your time and your insight.

Jason Moser: Thank you.

Ricky Mulvey: Hey, it's Ricky, and I want to shout out another podcast called Radical Candor. Based on the New York Times best selling book, Radical Candor talks about how to be a great boss without losing your humanity. Kim Scott, Amy Sandler and Jason Rozov deliver actionable insights each week to help you improve your career and relationships. They have other business experts, including Guy Kawasaki and Steven Covery to stop in and share how they use Radical Candor concepts and their work. Their guidance will help you move beyond ineffective flattery and brutal criticism toward guidance that drives real growth and development. Listen every Wednesday for new episodes wherever you get your podcasts and see how you can apply Radical Candor in your life.

Are you feeling a little concentrated? Up next, Robert Brokamp joins me to discuss some ways to diversify your portfolio. This year has been a reminder that stocks can be volatile. In 2023 and 2024, investors were treated to 20% plus returns in the S&P 500. This year, both the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 were in bear market territory, and the S&P 500 got pretty close. That's if we define a bear market is a drop of 20% or more from all time highs. A drop that in and of itself is the cost of doing business in the stock market, even if the reason this time is, well, you can decide for yourself. Still, it's a good time to ask some questions. If you're near retirement, are you too concentrated in tech stocks? This is a question that even indexers should ask since about one-third of the S&P 500's market value lies in just seven companies. Should I follow the lead of institutional investors spreading their bets outside of the United States, or even Berkshire Hathaway, which now has the most cash on the books of any company Bro ever? All of this is to say, how can I diversify my portfolio to take some of the bite out of bear markets?

Robert Brokamp: Well, there are plenty of investments that may add some balls to your portfolio, and we're going to talk about the most popular candidates. But I first want to talk a little bit about diversification in general. We're going to talk about what diversifies a portfolio for what I see as the typical Motley Fool investor who owns stocks primarily in the S&P 500, which, as you mentioned, Ricky, has a tilt toward growth leaning tech-oriented, tech adjacent companies, and a lot of our listeners also own those companies outright. That's the starting point here. I do want to emphasize that diversification is somewhat of a double-edged sword. You often have to own a diversifying asset through many stretches of, frankly, pretty mediocre ho-hum performance in order to eventually get the payoff. Then as I talk about these various things, I do think it's important that when you're looking for a diversifier, it's helpful to know how they perform basically during past market downturns, and over the last 25 years, there's been a good range of examples to see how investments perform during different types of bear markets. We had longer ones such as the dotcom crash and the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Market dropped more than 50% then. I took more than five years for the market to recover. But then we've also had shorter ones like the pandemic panick and 2022. With all that said, here are some diversifiers to consider, and I'm going to give each a letter grade.

Ricky Mulvey: What's the grade then for the dividend payers?

Robert Brokamp: I'm going to give dividend payers A, B, and here I'm talking about a diversified mix of companies that have paid a consistent and growing dividend for many years, and many have an above average yield. With the current yield on the S&P 500 being 1.3%, it doesn't take much to have an above average yield. It's not necessarily the dividends themselves that make these good diversifiers, though, getting a reliable stream of income is nice, especially since historically that stream will outpace inflation, it's that these types of companies tend to be more value-oriented, a little less volatile than the overall market, and score high on other factors such as quality, which is dined by different people in different ways. But basically comes down to a company that is profitable. The earnings growth is less volatile and they have a strong balance sheet, meaning not a lot of debt. I recently looked at the returns of the 10 biggest dividend focus ETFs, and they're all down this year, but not as much as the overall market. In 2022, when the S&P 500 was down almost 20%, NASDAQ was down more than 30%. The losses in these ETFs were in the single digits, and a couple actually made money. That's it. The diversification among dividend payers is important. During the Great Recession, some of the best dividend payers were financial stocks, and they got walloped. You definitely want a diversified portfolio of dividend payers.

Ricky Mulvey: Our colleagues, Matt Argersinger and Anthony Shavon, who run our dividend investing in service would also tell you that dividends are great for companies to pay because they make them a little bit more disciplined on capital allocation decisions when they're not maybe pursuing growth at all costs, and they have to return a little something to their shareholders. Another idea, international stocks, getting outside the United States. Bro, how are you feeling about these? What's the grade right now?

Robert Brokamp: I'm going to give them a C plus, which doesn't sound great, though, I think most people should have a little bit of international exposure. I'm giving them a C plus because, frankly, over the past 15 years, it's been tough to argue for international stocks. US stocks have outperformed them by some measure, it's a historical amount. But looking longer-term, there are many long-term periods, several years, even a decade or more, when international stocks outperform US stocks. You could saw it in parts of the '70s, the '80s, and the early 2000s, and looking very short-term, the total non-US stock market is actually up 8% so far this year, while US stocks are down, developed market stocks are doing even better, returning almost 11%. I do think there's something special about the American economy, and it explains why US stocks have outperformed the vast majority of other national stock markets over the last century or so, which is why I'm giving international stocks a C plus when it comes to diversification. But there's no question that there are long stretches when international stocks will do well, and they're certainly a lot cheaper these days than US stocks when you look at P/E or dividend yield or anything like that, which is why I personally have between 15 and 20% of my portfolio overseas.

Ricky Mulvey: The next one is a big one. We could be talking multifamily REITs, rental properties, office buildings. We could be talking about the Vanguard entire real estate index fund, but I'll make it easy for you, Bro. How are you feeling about real estate?

Robert Brokamp: As you hinted at, there are all real estate, so I'm going to give it a range of grades from C plus to B plus, depending on the type of real estate. A few weeks ago, we did an episode on what happens to different types of assets during a recession. We cited research which actually found that home prices actually hold up well. In fact, they tend to do better during bear markets and stocks than during bull markets with the very notable exception, of course, a 2007-2009 recession when both the economy, the stock market, and home prices collapsed. But usually, over the long-term, residential real estate, whether it's your own home or perhaps investing in rentals, can provide some excellent diversification. Now, you hinted at REITs, real estate investment trust. These are stocks and companies that own and operate real estate. It can be all real estate: apartment buildings, medical facilities, office facilities, storage, and they can be a good portfolio diversifier as well, though, like international stocks, man, they have lagged the S&P 500 for a good while now. Their diversification benefits can be mixed. They did very well during the dotcom crash and the ensuing recession, but also they were part of the real estate bubble, and boy, they got pummeled in 2008. As a starting point, I think it makes sense to have maybe a 5% allocation to REITs, and you can use that Vanguard ETF that you suggested. That's what I choose, especially if you're close to in retirement since they have above average yields, but they're still moderately to highly correlated to the overall stock market, so the diversification benefits are going to be mixed.

Ricky Mulvey: This next one has been on a run. Two investments over the past 12 months. One of these has returned about 7%. The one that I'm talking about now has returned 42%. Bro, this is the comparison between what the S&P 500 has done over the past year and gold.

Robert Brokamp: It's been quite remarkable. I'm going to give gold a diversifying grade of C plus, though I could easily be moved to a B minus on this. Gold has been in the news a lot lately because, as you pointed out, the return has been exceptional. It's up 26% so far this year, based on the performance of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, and as you may have seen on social media, it's actually returned about the same as the S&P 500 over the past 20 years, almost identical. Why am I giving it a C plus? Well, first of all, part of it is just philosophical. We at the full believe in owning businesses with products, services, innovations, they generate a growing stream of cash. Gold, on the other hand, just a piece of metal, pass some decorative industrial uses, but mostly you're just betting that someone will be willing to pay a higher price for it in the future, not because it's going to be generating more cash in the future, but you're just hoping that there'll be more demand. Gold has gone through some really long stretches of lousy performance. It did really well in the 1970s due to the high inflation, peaked in 1980, went the other direction, and it took around 25 years to get back to its 1980 peak. All that said, it is true that gold has done well during bear market in stocks. We're seeing that this year, saw in 2022, 2008, and in two of the three bad years during the dotcom crash. It's fine to own some Gold as a hedge against bear markets, which is why I own little myself. I own some of that SPDR Gold Shares ETF.

Ricky Mulvey: By the time you notice it's outperforming, maybe that means you're a little late to the party on gold, Bro? It is you're betting on someone to pay more for it than you are today. However, gold has been around for thousands of years that people have been accepting it is a store of value. A little bit more of a track record there than something like crypto or even the tulip bulbs I was trying to sell you before we were recording. Let's get to crypto, because this is one that is interesting, and some investors still see it as a store of value. Let's talk for hours about Bitcoin as a digital gold in this economy we live in.

Robert Brokamp: We could talk for hours. In terms of a grade, I'm giving this one incomplete. I'm going back to my teaching days. I just feel like I can't give it a grade right now because it's just too soon to say what diversification benefit you're going to get from crypto. We'll talk mostly about Bitcoin, but as you know, there's so many varieties of it. It just doesn't have a long enough history for me. Bitcoin is flat for the year, which means it's doing better than in the stock market, so that's good news. But in 2022, it plummeted more than 60%. For me, the jury's still out. There's no question that it is gaining wider adoption, both in terms of by investors, by countries, and it's boosted by the availability of ETFs to make it easier to invest. I'm more comfortable investing in it than I would have been maybe three or four years ago. But the value of it as a diversifier is pretty much still unproven.

Ricky Mulvey: How about as a strategic reserve? Moving on. Let's get to alternatives, however you define them.

Robert Brokamp: This is a very broad category that can include really all investments that aren't commonly held by everyday investors. We're talking commodities, managed futures, currencies, hedge funds, private equity, and so on. For the most part, it's difficult or expensive for the regular investor to buy into these types of investments, and you're often not getting the cream of the crop. You're getting what's left over. Depending on how you invest in them, they keep illiquid and/or endure really long periods of bad or at least mediocre performance. For most people, I don't think they're necessary. However, I will add that the proponents of these types of investments do make some good points. Primarily, they say that a standard portfolio of stocks and bonds isn't as diversified as some people think because they often rely on a single factor like the overall economy or maybe just the movement of interest rates. We saw that in 2022 when interest rates skyrocketed and stocks and bonds fell. If you have the time and the inclination to research more about alternatives, you actually might find some things that strike your fancy. Just be prepared to pay higher fees to hold on to something that will behave very differently from a standard portfolio, which, I guess is the whole point.

Ricky Mulvey: The next one is Uncle Warren's one of his favorites right now, and that is just cash, Bro.

Robert Brokamp: Cash is boring, but I'm going to give it at an A, front of the class. I won't belabor this, cash is king or queen when times get tough. It's the only investment that you can feel reasonably sure won't drop in value. Just make sure you're putting in the effort to get the highest yields possible, which these days is close to or around 4%, and you're going to have to accept the fact that returns will never be great. When you invest in cash, you're making a trade-off. You're choosing lower return certainty over the unpredictable possibility, and you can even say historical probability that you'd earn a higher return in stocks given enough time. But for money you need in the next few years that you want to make sure holds up in value, it's hard to beat cash.

Ricky Mulvey: Another way you can take your money out of the stock market is to put it in bonds. Bro, there are some higher-yielding bond funds that look pretty attractive to me.

Robert Brokamp: This is why I'm giving this a range of grades, actually, from C minus to A. Because when it comes to bonds, the returns will depend on the issuer, the duration, meaning short or long-term, shorter-term bonds are going to be less volatile, longer-terms are much more volatile and how you own them, individual bonds versus bond funds. But let's start with the safest and move on to the riskiest. US treasuries are considered very safe, maybe not as safe as they were like five years ago, Fitch and S&P have downgraded them, and Moody's made some announcement recently about they might be doing some things as well, but they're still considered the safest investments in the world. Investment grade corporates are considered safe. Not super safe, but safe. Then you have below investment grade corporates, otherwise known as junk, and they're very risky. This is where you get the higher yields. You'll get much higher yields from junk bonds and somewhat higher yields from corporates, but you got to understand that they will often go down during recessions, and junk bonds really go down.

I'm going to talk about 20% or more during the tough times. Bonds are holding up pretty well this year, by the way, returning around 3%, but they've been disappointing over the past several years. In fact, it's really been one of the worst stretches for bonds in US history. I would say the future looks brighter, but if you want more certainty from bonds, explore investing in individual bonds because you know exactly how much interest you're going to get. How much you're going to get back when the bond matures at maturity date, assuming the issuer is still in business, of course. I would also explore what are known as either target date bond funds or defined maturity bond funds. These only owned bonds that mature in the same year. That way you have a little bit more certainty about what they'll be worth when that year arrives. The two biggest issuers of these ETFs are iShares and Invesco.

Ricky Mulvey: Bro, junk bonds are how I started my casino chain. Let's wrap it up with annuities.

Robert Brokamp: Yes, annuities. Not everyone's favorite topic, but let me explain. I'm going to give these an A for the right people. When I mean annuity, I'm saying anything that sends you a regular check in retirement for the rest of your life. In the original versions of annuities, you'd get that check or that payment every year. You'd get it annually, which is why they're called annuities. We all get some of this. By this, I'm talking about Social Security. Yes, Social Security is in trouble. People in their 50s and younger may not get everything they're promised, but you'll get most of what you're promised, and you'll get that check every month, regardless of what's happening in the stock and bond markets, it adjusts for inflation. It's partially tax-free. I think if you can maximize your Social Security benefit to some degree, that is a great diversifier in retirement. Same principle if you're getting a defined benefit pension, the traditional pension. If you can maximize that, that's good. Now, you can buy more, actually buying annuity from an insurance company. But the only annuity that appeals to me personally it's called a single premium Immediate annuity. You hand over a lump sum, say, $100,000, and you'll get $68,000 a year for the rest of your life. You give up a lot of liquidity, so don't do it without understanding the loss of liquidity when you do that. If you choose to go that way, you take that money from the portion of your portfolio that would otherwise have been taken from the bond part of your portfolio.

Ricky Mulvey: Very good. Robert Brokamp, appreciate being here. Thanks for your time and insight.

Robert Brokamp: My pleasure, Ricky.

Ricky Mulvey: As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about in the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and are not approved by advertisers. The Motley Fool only picks products that would personally recommend to friends like you. I'm Ricky Mulvey. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Jason Moser has positions in Amazon and PayPal. Ricky Mulvey has positions in Chewy, Netflix, PayPal, and Spotify Technology. Robert Brokamp has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, Bitcoin, Chewy, Costco Wholesale, Moody's, Netflix, PayPal, Spotify Technology, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2027 $42.50 calls on PayPal and short June 2025 $77.50 calls on PayPal. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Recession-Resistant Stocks: What Stocks Should Hold Up Best During a Recession?

The risk has been increasing that the United States will have a recession in 2025 or within the next year, according to top Wall Street firms and economists. Recession risk has risen sharply over the last few months, largely due to the trade war and the potential for tariffs to hurt U.S. (and global) economic growth and ignite inflation.

Below I'll explore the current probability of a near-term recession and what stocks could hold up best during the next recession.

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What's the probability of a near-term recession in the United States?

Many of the probability estimates from experts that the U.S. will have a recession in 2025 or within one year fall within the 40% to 60% range, though there are some credible sources with estimates that are lower and higher. In early April, Wall Street company Goldman Sachs boosted its one-year recession-risk probability to 45% from 35%, which it had previously increased from 20% in late March.

Also in early April, JPMorgan pegged the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 at 60%, up from its early March forecast of 40%. In mid-April, the investment bank reiterated its 60% probability. It said that President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on his April 2 country-specific so-called reciprocal tariffs "reduces the shock to the global trading order, but the remaining universal 10% tariff is still a material threat to growth, and the 145% tariff on China keeps the probability of a recession at 60%."

Which categories of stocks should hold up best during the next recession?

Certain categories of stocks tend to perform better than others during economic downturns. These mostly include what are called "defensive stocks" that tend to pay dividends.

Defensive stocks include several broad classes, including:

  • Stocks of companies that make products or provide services that people need no matter the economic climate.
  • Gold and silver mining stocks. Precious metals are considered hedges on inflation and the relative value of the U.S. dollar, which generally weakens during recessions.

Examples of the first group listed above include:

  • Consumer staples: Food and beverage makers, personal and home care products manufacturers.
  • Utilities: Water, electric, and gas utilities.
  • Healthcare: Pharmaceutical makers, medical-device makers.
  • Discount retailers: In tough economic times, many consumers tend to be more price-conscious.

There are other types of stocks that tend to weather recessions well. You can think of one group as "small indulgence stocks."

During economic downturns, many people will feel uncertain about their job security. As a result, they'll put off large expenditures, such as homes and new vehicles, and cut back their spending on discretionary items, such as clothing.

However, many folks will keep spending on what they consider relatively inexpensive "treats." Some might even increase their spending on such products or services to reward themselves for putting off spending on big-ticket items.

Examples of "small indulgence" products and services include relatively inexpensive:

  • Entertainment, such as video-streaming
  • Comfort foods (such as chocolates), meals out (fast-food restaurants)

What stocks gained or held up relatively well during the Great Recession?

All recessions are somewhat different, so it's not possible to say that just because select stocks held up well during prior recessions, they'll hold up well in future ones. That said, in general, certain types of stocks tend to perform better than others during tough economic climates, as discussed above, so investors can learn valuable lessons by looking at past recessions.

The Great Recession was a deep economic downturn that officially lasted for 18 months from Dec. 2007 through the end of May 2009. It's widely considered the most severe U.S. economic downturn since the Great Depression, which began following the stock market crash in 1929 and didn't end until the start of World War II in 1940.

During the one-and-a-half years of the Great Recession, the S&P 500 index, including dividends, plunged 35.6%.

Table 1: Stocks that gained during the Great Recession

These stocks and one exchange-traded fund (ETF) are listed in order of descending performance during the Great Recession. This list isn't all-inclusive.

Company Market Cap Dividend Yield Wall Street's Projected 5-Year Annualized EPS Growth Return During Great Recession Return From Start of Great Recession to Present*
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) $469 billion -- 23.6% 70.7% 33,280%
iShares Gold Trust ETF $41.9 billion net assets -- -- 24.3% 302%
J&J Snack Foods $2.5 billion 2.4% 9.1% 18.1% 404%
Walmart $762 billion 1% 9.5% 7.3% 761%
McDonald's $226 billion 2.2% 7.6% 4.7% 778%
S&P 500 index -- 1.36% -- (35.6%) 424%

Data sources: Yahoo! Finance, finviz.com and YCharts. Data to Friday, April 25, 2025. EPS = earnings per share. *Bold-faced returns = stock has beaten the S&P 500.

  • Netflix: Video-streaming pioneer that's the world's leading video-streaming company.
  • iShares Gold Trust ETF: Exchange-traded fund that aims to track the price of gold.
  • J&J Snack Foods: Produces niche snack foods and frozen beverages.
  • Walmart: World's largest retailer by revenue, focuses on low prices.
  • McDonald's: World's largest fast-food restaurant chain by revenue.

Table 2: Stocks that held up relatively well during the Great Recession

The following stocks declined during the Great Recession but held up much better than the broader market, which dropped nearly 36%. This list isn't all-inclusive.

Company Market Cap Dividend Yield Wall Street's Projected 5-Year Annualized EPS Growth Return During Great Recession Return From Start of Great Recession to Present*

Newmont

$60.8 billion 1.8% 7.2% (0.3%) 54.5%
Hershey (NYSE: HSY) $33.1 billion 3.4% (7.4%) (7.2%) 524%
Church & Dwight (NYSE: CHD) $24.4 billion 1.2% 7.4% (9.6%) 792%
American Water Works (NYSE: AWK) $28.1 billion 2.1% 6.5% (12.7%)* 953%
NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) $136 billion 3.4% 8.2% (15.7%) 531%
S&P 500 index -- 1.36% -- (35.6%) 424%

Data sources: Yahoo! Finance, finviz.com, and YCharts. Data to Friday, April 25, 2025. EPS = earnings per share. *Bold-faced returns = stock has beaten the S&P 500. **Company went public in April 2008, a few months after the recession started.

  • Newmont: World's largest gold mining company, which also mines other metals.
  • Hershey: Largest chocolate company in the U.S. by market share, also sells salty snack foods.
  • Church & Dwight: Home and personal-care product maker, best known for its iconic Arm and Hammer brand baking soda.
  • American Water Works: The largest and most geographically diverse regulated U.S. water and wastewater utility.
  • NextEra Energy: Largest electric utility in the U.S. by market cap and the world's largest generator of renewable energy from wind and sun.

Key takeaways from the above 2 tables

1. Gold mining stocks (Newmont, Table 2) and gold ETFs (iShares Gold Trust ETF, Table 1) might hold up well or even make strong gains during tough economic climates, but they rarely perform well during booming economic times. Therefore, they tend to underperform the market over the long term. These investments are highly volatile and cyclical and best left to short-term traders.

2. Netflix and Hershey are good examples of "small indulgence stocks," as described above. Moreover, Netflix has an added benefit that wasn't an issue during the Great Recession: It should be little affected by the raging tariff war, as U.S tariffs on imports and other countries' retaliatory tariffs are on goods, not services. This is an important distinction that investors should keep in mind when selecting stocks.

3. Top utility stocks can outperform the market over the long term, despite conventional wisdom to the contrary. (Cases in point: American Water Works and NextEra Energy, Table 2.) These stocks aren't just "widow and orphan stocks," as stockbrokers, in general, have long characterized them. A statistic that might surprise many investors: As of April 25, shares of Google parent Alphabet have performed only slightly better than shares of American Water since the latter's initial public offering (IPO) 17 years ago in April 2008: GOOGL has returned 1,090% to AWK's 953%.

4. There are some top-performing stocks that get very little coverage in the financial press. (Case in point: Church & Dwight, Table 2). One takeaway here is that investors shouldn't conflate the amount of coverage a stock gets in the financial press with its desirability as an investment, especially a long-term investment.

Review your stock holdings -- but stay in the market

As noted in this article's opening, top Wall Street banks and economists generally give odds ranging from 40% to 60% that the U.S. will have a recession in 2025 or within the next year. These are quite high odds, so it makes sense that investors review their stock portfolio and perhaps tweak it to make it more recession-resistant.

That said, if you're a long-term investor, it's not a good idea to get out of the stock market entirely or make huge changes, such as selling all of your growth stocks. It's extremely difficult to time the market. If you sell your growth stocks that don't tend to do well during recessions (such as tech stocks), you'll risk missing the early stages of their upturns during the next bull market -- and the early stages of a sustained upturn tend to be strong.

Time is a long-term investor's friend. Over the long term, the direction of the U.S. stock market has been decisively up. The longer your investing time frame, the less concerned you need to be about recessions causing market downturns.

Should you invest $1,000 in Netflix right now?

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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Beth McKenna has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Goldman Sachs Group, Hershey, JPMorgan Chase, Netflix, NextEra Energy, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Is Netflix the Perfect Recession Stock?

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) has changed the media landscape, not once but twice. First it altered the way consumers rented DVDs and then it basically helped to create the streaming business. Both times it used a subscription model. And that model is what makes this company so resilient during economic downturns. It could be the perfect recession stock, but does that make it worth buying today?

What does Netflix do?

Netflix basically provides the software platform through which consumers can stream media. It charges monthly fees to consumers for the use of the platform. The subscription revenue it generates is used to pay for the content that Netflix offers on its service. In the early days, the company was busy building its software offering and spent heavily on content to attract consumers. But it has now gained enough scale that it is a sustainably profitable business.

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Two people comparing charts with a calculator and computer on a table.

Image source: Getty Images.

The subscriptions are annuity-like income streams. The key here is that a monthly subscription to Netflix is fairly low cost relative to what it would cost to go out to see a movie in a theater. And that's true for just for a single person, the benefit gets even greater for couples and greater still for couples with children. And since Netflix can be used on multiple types of devices, the service can, essentially, travel with a customer. There are a lot of positives here and very few negatives.

Which is why recessions aren't that big a deal for Netflix's business. While consumers may pull back on going to the movies, or other out-of-home entertainment, they probably aren't going to cut off Netflix unless they have no other choice.

The company sailed through the brief recession during the coronavirus pandemic period. But the bigger test was the Great Recession, where revenue didn't skip a beat despite the length and depth of the economic downturn. If history is any guide, the next recession shouldn't be too much of a headwind for the company, either.

Is Netflix worth buying now that economic uncertainty is high?

The key words above are "too much of a headwind." That's because Netflix was still in an early stage of growth during the Great Recession. It has reached a far more mature state today, so there's a chance that a recession will have a bigger impact on the top line. Given the nature of its media business, however, it seems highly unlikely that Netflix's sales and earnings will suddenly plunge.

This dynamic was highlighted in the company's first-quarter results. The company's revenue was ahead of its guidance, which is a very good sign. But management refrained from updating its full-year guidance. That suggests that the company is worried that the strong first quarter will be offset by weaker quarters later in the year.

That's hardly the end of the world, however, and is probably a prudent decision given the economic uncertainty. Netflix is still likely to be a strong performer even if there is a recession. The problem isn't the company's business, it is the stock's valuation. The stock's price-to-sales, price-to-earnings, and price-to-book value ratios are all above their five-year averages. This suggests the stock is expensive, noting that the shares are trading near their all-time highs.

To paraphrase famed value investor Benjamin Graham, even a good stock can be a bad investment if you pay too much for it. And it looks like investors are paying a high price for the perceived safety of Netflix's streaming business.

Netflix's business is resilient, but it stock may not be

If you are looking for an investment that will survive a recession in relative stride, Netflix's business seems highly likely to do just that. However, it is unclear what will happen to the stock, which appears to be pricing in a lot of good news. And given that management is taking a cautious stance with its full-year 2025 guidance, it probably makes sense for investors to take a cautious stance with the company's richly valued stock.

Should you invest $1,000 in Netflix right now?

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Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $591,533!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $652,319!*

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*Stock Advisor returns as of April 21, 2025

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

1 Monster Stock That Turned $10,000 Into $6 Million in 20 Years

Let's face it: Investors put money to work in the stock market with a single core goal -- to achieve strong returns and grow those funds. And over the long term, a diversified portfolio can certainly do just that. Over the past two decades, the S&P 500 index has registered a 557% total return. But that is, of course, the average result from a large group of companies. Some have produced drastically better gains.

For example, a $10,000 investment made exactly 20 years ago in one business that has since become an industry leader would be worth more than $6 million (as of April 22). That monster gain would be life-changing wealth for any patient investor who was bold (and lucky) enough to bet on that then-unproven company and hold on through good times and bad along the way.

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That amazing business was none other than Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX). But should you buy it today?

Press play

When it comes to disruption and innovation, few companies fall into the same elite category as this one. Netflix's success over the years has been truly exceptional.

When Netflix was young, traditional cable TV was the primary medium by which households watched their favorite shows and movies. However, the growth of high-speed internet access provided the DVD-rental-by-mail company with the technological infrastructure to bring streaming video entertainment to the masses. Netflix launched its streaming service in the U.S. in 2007, and today, it operates in 190 countries.

Netflix easily won over customers by providing a superior experience. People could choose to watch whatever they wanted from a large and growing content catalog whenever they wanted to watch it, all for a monthly fee that was much cheaper than a basic cable subscription. This helped drive rapid adoption. Between the end of 2014 and the end of 2024, the company increased its paid subscriber base by 459% and its revenue by 609%.

A dominant force

It would be hard to overstate just how much of a media powerhouse Netflix has become. More than 300 million households pay for its subscriptions, and management says it reaches a whopping 700 million people. It's on pace to rake in $44 billion in revenue in 2025.

From a financial perspective, Netflix has reached a level of profitability that its early critics probably never thought was possible. Credit goes to the company's massive scale. Keeping the new content pipeline full is expensive, but those costs are (relatively speaking) fixed -- it won't cost the company incrementally more to show the new season of Stranger Things to a larger audience, for example. Netflix plans to lay out $18 billion this year on new shows and films, but it has huge user and revenue bases to amortize that spending against.

The result is a lucrative business model. Netflix executives forecast an operating margin of 29% for 2025. That would be up drastically from 18% in 2020, showcasing the company's ability to scale up profitably. The business reported $6.9 billion in free cash flow last year -- most of which it used to repurchase $6.2 billion worth of outstanding shares.

Press pause

The stock market is in correction territory right now, but this hasn't fazed Netflix investors. The stock is up 17% this year as of April 22, bucking the S&P 500's 10% decline.

But though Netflix stock has been a tremendous winner in the past, I don't believe it's automatically a buy today. The valuation is what worries me. As of this writing, shares trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.2. That's not a small premium to pay.

I'm totally confident that Netflix will not generate another 60,000% return over the next 20 years. Given its current market cap of around $467 billion, it's just not financially feasible for it to grow to a size 100 times bigger than Apple. My perhaps more controversial view is that it might not even outperform the broader market during that time. The business is poised to continue its solid growth, but its current valuation already has some of the market's high expectations baked in.

Investors who believe Netflix is a quality company worth owning should be patient and wait until there's a better opportunity to add shares at a less lofty valuation. But if you prefer not to wait, consider using a dollar-cost averaging strategy to build your position over time.

Should you invest $1,000 in Netflix right now?

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Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $591,533!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $652,319!*

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*Stock Advisor returns as of April 21, 2025

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple and Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Does Netflix Have the Right Artificial Intelligence (AI) Ideas?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is still Wall Street's favorite water-cooler talk. It's also serious business. Finding the right AI strategy can make or break a company's future. That's true even outside the traditional tech sector, and digital entertainment specialist Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) is taking it very seriously.

In last week's first-quarter earnings call, co-CEO Ted Sarandos explained how Netflix is thinking about AI nowadays. Let's dig in and see whether his AI comments make sense or not.

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Making movies 10% better beats making them 50% cheaper

Near the end of the earnings call, Morgan Stanley analyst Ben Swinburne asked Netflix's management for an update on the company's AI strategy. To summarize Swinburne's question: Leading directors have started to embrace generative AI technology, so how is Netflix planning to leverage this powerful tool?

Sarandos highlighted Avatar and Titanic director James Cameron's view that generative AI could cut movie production costs in half, and turned in a different direction.

"I remain convinced that there's an even bigger opportunity if you can make movies 10% better," he said. "Traditionally, only big budget projects would have access to things like advanced visual effects (VFX) such as de-aging. So today, you can use these AI-powered tools so to enable smaller budget projects to have access to big VFX on screen."

As an example, the big-budget Scorsese movie The Irishman in 2019 used "very expensive" technologies to make actors look younger, said Sarandos. Five years later, that movie's cinematographer, Rodrigo Prieto, directed another sprawling epic; based on the classic Juan Rulfo book of the same name, Pedro Páramo shows several characters in several time periods, several decades apart. Generative AI is a cost-effective method for achieving the right looks in each period.

"Using AI-powered tools he was able to deliver this de-aging VFX to the screen for a fraction of what it cost on The Irishman," Sarandos said. "In fact, the entire budget of the film was about the VFX cost on The Irishman."

In other words, generative AI tools helped Prieto get this long-suffering project off the ground. Making it without generative AI would have been too expensive, not good enough, or perhaps both.

This is how Sarandos wants to use generative AI in the future -- enabling creative talents to run with ideas that always seemed out of reach without AI assistance.

AI in filmmaking isn't exactly new

So Sarandos added a twist of human talents to the generative AI discussion. Just a couple of days later, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences updated its Academy Awards rule book. In the Academy's updated view, the decision to include AI tools will "neither help nor harm the chances of achieving a nomination." Instead, each film will be judged by the human creativity instead of which methods it used.

And this analysis could have been made many years ago. Peter Jackson's digital effects crew put thousands of orcs and elves on the Lord of the Rings battlefields 20 years ago, and they didn't control each animated figure by hand. All three films won the Academy Award for best visual effects, despite their heavy use of automated animation. The Walking Dead added lots of digital zombies to many scenes, as early as 2010. Sure, these lurchers were based on motion-capture filming, but their behavior on the screen was as computer-controlled as any generative AI avatar.

Netflix wants to make premium content with an AI assist

Taken together, Netflix and the Academy are making generative AI look more like an ordinary movie-making instrument than a dangerous replacement of human creativity. Will this message stick? I don't know, but the discussion has been started.

The long-term effects of this generative AI revolution might follow Ted Sarandos' planned path, delivering more and better content to viewers without taking away the human quality of creative work. Critics might argue that this is the wrong idea, and that the entertainment market is about to be drowned in tons of cheap but low-quality shows and movies.

I'm sure you'll see solid examples of both strategies. There's a place for inexpensive mass-market versions of anything and everything, but truly creative efforts will also always find an audience. It looks like Netflix wants to play on the high-end side of this divider, which aligns with the company's stated goals: "Netflix is a focused passion brand, not a do-everything brand: Starbucks, not 7-Eleven; Southwest, not United ; HBO, not Dish."

As a longtime Netflix user and investor, I applaud Sarandos' focus on production quality over cost-cutting. I'd rather see more award-winning nuggets of creative gold than rushed bargain-bin entertainment -- no matter how the content was created.

Should you invest $1,000 in Netflix right now?

Before you buy stock in Netflix, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Netflix wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $532,771!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $593,970!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 781% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 149% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

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*Stock Advisor returns as of April 21, 2025

Anders Bylund has positions in Netflix. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix, Starbucks, and Warner Bros. Discovery. The Motley Fool recommends Southwest Airlines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

2 Stocks That Could Thrive in a Tariff-Heavy Environment

President Donald Trump's decision to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from nearly every country in the world has resulted in one of the worst quarters for the U.S. stock market in years. Investors fear that the impact of this move, as well as the retaliatory actions that some countries have already responded with, will take a heavy toll on the entire economy.

In this now-shaky macro environment, those who wish to buy stock may want to start by looking for companies that might not be as affected by a trade war due to the nature of their businesses. Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Visa (NYSE: V) are two great examples which fit that bill, but aren't just "tariff plays." Each can perform well in the long run.

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1. Netflix

Netflix's business is somewhat insulated from the impact of tariffs because it has no physical products. It generates most of its revenue from subscriptions. That's not to say the streaming specialist will be entirely immune from the impacts of Trump's trade war. The streamer has a fast-growing, ad-supported subscription tier. If the tariffs lead to an economic slowdown, many companies could cut their ad budgets, which would likely affect Netflix.

In addition, the streaming leader might lose paid subscribers if a recession hits. Still, Netflix should perform better than most in these challenging times since the lion's shares of its sales don't come from ads, and most companies suffer one way or another in economic downturns. Just as important, Netflix is still well-positioned to deliver strong performances long after this storm has subsided.

Netflix's subscriber base provides it with a massive amount of data on viewer habits that it can use to steer its content production decisions in the right directions. It has done that quite successfully throughout its history. Its revenue, earnings, and free cash flow have been growing at healthy clips recently, and they can keep doing so in the long run, considering the massive amount of white space still available to the company.

NFLX Revenue (Annual) Chart

NFLX Revenue (Annual) data by YCharts.

Netflix estimates it has an addressable market of $650 billion in the markets where it operates -- it has only grabbed 6% of that total. While it will never capture anywhere close to all of it since the competition in streaming is fierce, Netflix remains the top dog. It should profit more than its peers from the ongoing shift in viewing away from linear TV and toward streaming. It is an excellent stock to buy and hold through this tariff-driven market meltdown and beyond.

2. Visa

Visa is a leading provider of financial services. Billions of credit and debit cards worldwide are branded with its famous logo. However, Visa does not issue these cards itself, nor does it provide the credit that underpins them -- that's the job of banks. Visa provides a network that facilitates digital transactions and charges a fee for each transaction made.

Since it does not issue the cards or lend money, it isn't subject to the risk that borrowers will default -- a threat that intensifies during recessions. If Trump's macroeconomic policies lead to a recession, Visa won't have to worry as much about that issue. Further, tariffs can lead to higher inflation, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pointed out recently.

Inflation could be good for Visa, though. Since the fees it charges are computed as a small percentage of each transaction, people spending more money on the same items means higher revenues for Visa. With hundreds of millions of transactions on its network every day, incrementally growth in the average size of its fees starts to add up. That's why Visa could navigate the current environment just fine.

The company also has excellent long-term prospects. There is an ongoing shift in purchasing activity away from cash and checks, which still are used for trillions of dollars worth of retail activity. Meanwhile, Visa benefits from the network effect. The more consumers hold credit and debit cards with its logo, the more attractive it is for businesses to accept the brand as a payment option. And the more places Visa cards are accepted, the more appealing those cars will be to consumers. The result is a virtuous cycle that has kept the company's place in the financial landscape secure for decades.

Lastly, Visa is a terrific dividend stock. It has increased its payouts by a total of about 392% over the past decade. Visa's dividend should be safe even in challenging times. And for investors, reinvesting those growing distributions can add a boost to what should already be superior long-term returns.

Should you invest $1,000 in Netflix right now?

Before you buy stock in Netflix, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Netflix wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $495,226!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $679,900!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 796% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 155% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

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*Stock Advisor returns as of April 10, 2025

Prosper Junior Bakiny has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix and Visa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

2 Resilient Growth Stocks to Buy in April

Sudden drops in the stock market can leave investors with an uneasy feeling. While market crashes have happened several times over the last century, they all come to an end and prove to be the best times to buy stocks.

If you're looking for resilient growth stocks that could hold up better than most in this environment, while positioning you for long-term gains, here are two stocks to consider buying right now.

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1. Netflix

Shares of Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) soared last year and are significantly outperforming the S&P 500 year to date. Its focus on delivering affordable digital entertainment should make it a resilient investment for 2025 and beyond.

Netflix has a strong upcoming content slate that serves as a catalyst for subscriber growth. Returning hits like Squid Game, Stranger Things, and Wednesday should attract millions of viewers. Plus, Netflix's push into live events is proving to be a game changer. The livestreams of two NFL games on Christmas Day led to an average minute audience surpassing 30 million, which indicates a promising opportunity for Netflix to widen its appeal.

Paid memberships grew 15.9% year over year in the fourth quarter, crossing 300 million for the first time. A combination of live events and demand for the cheaper ad-supported subscription tier contributed to strong growth in the quarter.

The ad-tier plan is another catalyst that should deliver profitable growth for Netflix this year. Management's guidance calls for ad revenue to double in 2025, which should bolster the company's earnings.

Analysts expect Netflix's earnings to grow at an annualized rate of 24% in the coming years. The stock could fall in the near term, but a strong content lineup could help it perform relatively well. Long term, Netflix's momentum in signing up subscribers indicates it is nowhere near its ceiling.

2. Take-Two Interactive

Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) makes some of the best-selling video games in the $400 billion video game industry. The stock rocketed to new highs earlier this year and is outperforming the S&P 500 year to date. It has a strong release slate for 2025 that should lead to record revenue and potentially higher share prices over the next year.

Take-Two's catalog of titles across consoles, PC, and mobile platforms generates more than $5 billion in annual revenue. This year, it is releasing new titles from some of its most popular franchises. The most highly anticipated title is Grand Theft Auto VI. All the previous releases in the Grand Theft Auto series have sold a cumulative 440 million copies, with the most recent version comprising nearly half of those sales.

Grand Theft Auto gets more popular with every release, which is why management expects this to be a record year for the company. Analysts are currently projecting Take-Two to haul in $8.2 billion in adjusted revenue for fiscal 2026 (ending in March). This would represent an increase of approximately 46% over expected fiscal 2025 revenue.

While video game sales are not immune to a recession, spending on entertainment is generally more resilient than it is in other industries. Like Netflix, Take-Two's upcoming release schedule should go a long way to mitigate weak consumer spending. Assuming Take-Two delivers on analysts' estimates, it would cement the company's position as a leader in the video game industry.

Grand Theft Auto VI will be monetized for years to come with content updates, similar to how a lot of video games make money these days. Analysts expect Take-Two's earnings per share to reach $9.24 in fiscal 2027, representing a significant jump over the last few years. With the stock currently trading at $195, the shares have the potential to deliver market-beating gains in 2025 and beyond.

Should you invest $1,000 in Netflix right now?

Before you buy stock in Netflix, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Netflix wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $495,226!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $679,900!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 796% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 155% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 10, 2025

John Ballard has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix and Take-Two Interactive Software. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Should You Buy Netflix Stock Before April 17?

Netflix's (NASDAQ: NFLX) management team has made excellent decisions and executed effectively during challenging times for the streaming pioneer.

*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of April 5, 2025. The video was published on April 7, 2025.

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Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity

Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.

On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:

  • Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $244,570!*
  • Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $35,715!*
  • Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $461,558!*

Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.

Continue »

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 5, 2025

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.

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