Normal view

Received before yesterday

Is Amazon Stock the Best Prime Day Deal?

In this podcast, Motley Fool host Anand Chokkavelu and contributors Jason Hall and Matt Frankel discuss:

  • The Aug.1 tariffs.
  • This year's four-day Prime Day (and whether Amazon stock is a deal).
  • Elon Musk's political party and Tesla.
  • Bold predictions.

To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. When you're ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

A full transcript is below.

Should you invest $1,000 in Amazon right now?

Before you buy stock in Amazon, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Amazon wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $694,758!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $998,376!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,058% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 180% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of July 7, 2025

This podcast was recorded on July 08, 2025.

Anand Chokkavelu: What are you buying today? Motley Fool Money starts now. I'm Anand Chokkavelu and I'm joined by two of my favorite Fools, Matt Frankel and Jason Hall. They we're talking Amazon's Prime Day. It's more like a prime week at this point, the latest on Tesla and Elon Musk, and we'll make some bold predictions. But first, let's update ourselves on tariffs. What's going on there, Matt?

Matt Frankel: Well, the tariff news seems to be changing so quickly. We're only recording this a few hours before it's being published, and I'm worried, if I'm being honest. The president announced a whole new round of tariffs yesterday, set to begin on August 1st for 14 countries, and that includes Japan and South Korea, which are our Number 4 in six trading partners, actually. Those both got 25% tariff rates. Some of the announced rates were as high as 40%. The president also said that the August 1st date is not set in stone. He said, "It's firm, but not 100% firm." I really think this is more noise than news at this point. Remember the initial Liberation Day tariff rates with the thing that looked like the cheesecake factory menu, [laughs] and then the pause that was announced until July 9th? This might be an effective negotiation tactic to get better trade deals. To be fair, it looks like it might be. But until anything actually goes into effect and is actually finalized and signed by both parties, it's noise. But in other tariff news, there is a good possibility that we're going to see a European Union trade deal soon. Each of the countries in the union are small trading partners, but collectively, they actually would make up our number one trading partner in terms of both imports and the trade deficit we have. It's definitely worth watching.

Jason Hall: From an investing perspective, maybe the Taco trade's real and still alive? I don't know. We've got another extension, another delay here, so there is a group that are going to say it's another chicken out moment. But I don't know if that's really investable for most of us. But thinking about the broad economic impact, I do think that for our trading partners, they're in a tough position. There's the tension between continuing to delay and avoid substantial tariffs because it seems like they keep getting kicked down the curb. But also, all of their industry and government spending, they still have to plan, too. All of the uncertainty weighs in there. But if you look at the markets, it seems like the markets are just shrugging this off is what's become business as usual. Maybe it's this fall before we really find out if litigation continues to play out, and eventually this ends up at the Supreme Court, it might have been a whole lot of work for the Supreme Court to say, hey, Congress, you guys need to do something. The president can't do this. We'll see.

Anand Chokkavelu: Jason, today's Amazon's Prime Day. We all know the deal. This is Amazon's once brilliant move to juice sales during the summer doldrums, maybe pull forward some of that back to school shopping, taking a little market share. It's grown to four days long now. It's doubled from last year. Any takeaways for investors? You know what? Is Amazon's stock priced as a Prime deal at this?

Jason Hall: You're not including the early days, the pre-Prime days deals that they do for people that can't hold off and wait for the four whole days. My wife may or may not have changed my Amazon password as an Amazon shopper. I'll tell you, there are some things that I'm looking at, for sure, but there's not much of an investing takeaway from that. It has become an event. It's become a retail event. But if we start looking at the business, the e-commerce business has really bounced back. There was some much needed restructuring a couple of years ago of expenses after the massive expansion during the pandemic. But that added scale, it's really, really paying off. It's e-commerce- revenue since 2019, so clean before the pandemic is up 77%. They've added $110 billion in e-commerce sales on a trailing 12 month basis.

Here's another interesting data point. Third party services revenue, that's also up by over $100 billion. Amazon's role as a giant in fulfillment has also exploded along with its own sales. But on AWS is still the big profit driver. Generates more than half of operating income, but only off of 17% of revenue over the past four quarters. Now, the stock, is it a Prime day deal? Maybe. Trades for less than 21 times operating cash flow. If you look back over the past decade, that's cheap. Here's the problem. They put about 85% of that operating cash flow right back into the business. But they need to right now, especially building up the tech infrastructure and R&D spending, but only time is going to tell if it can start converting those investments into free cash flow.

Matt Frankel: AWS is definitely the biggest profit driver for now. You also didn't mention the advertising that they're building out. That's one of the faster growing parts of their revenue, which is technically reported under the e-commerce platform. But it's a higher margin type of revenue than it gets elsewhere. Amazon certainly is not as cheap as it was just a few months ago, but it still looks very attractively valued, considering the recent progress with both efficiency and profitability of the business and all that growth you mentioned.

Anand Chokkavelu: Well, you got to raise the price right before you do the discount. [laughs] It's just a little stock trick. Speaking of those deals, any top prime deals for your household, Jason?

Jason Hall: I have to admit I'm eyeing a robot lawnmower. But I'm not convinced just yet, but since it's not Prime Day, it's Prime Week, like you said, I got a little time to think about it.

Matt Frankel: In the past few years, we've bought the kids the new Fire tablets because they're so cheap on Prime Day. I haven't looked yet, but I'm sure my wife has and has a plan. I like it when she does the shopping, because then when a bunch of packages show up and it's like Christmas.

Anand Chokkavelu: We've got a kid who never brushes his teeth and has destroyed his previous electric toothbrush, but we still waited a week to see if there are any deals. Spoiler alert, no deals on the specific toothbrush [laughs] we wanted. We also looked at Walmart and Target who do similar Remora to the Amazon Shark sales. But we'll see. I'm sure we'll be buying a bunch of stuff.

Jason Hall: Well, Anand, do you know what you call a kid that won't brush their teeth?

Anand Chokkavelu: What?

Jason Hall: A kid.

Anand Chokkavelu: [laughs] Exactly. But this is where he's beyond the normal distribution.

Matt Frankel: I was going to say you've won, too. [laughs]

Anand Chokkavelu: Right. At least versus his brother and all of his cousins. Let's move on to the boy who may have cried wolf on focusing less on politics and more on Tesla. What's up with Elon Musk today, Matt?

Matt Frankel: Oh, I assume you're talking about the new political party that he's starting the American Party, because there's a lot that's up with Elon Musk. Between Tesla, between SpaceX, between xAI, between all the other things, there's a lot that's up with Elon Musk. He wanted to add one more thing to his plate by creating his own [laughs] political party. To be fair, he ran a poll on X, formerly Twitter, asking who would want a third party. Overwhelmingly from millions of votes and not just like his own followers, through millions of votes 80% or so said yes. One of the party's stated goals is to get Republicans out of office who voted for Trump's bill. We all saw the big public fallout between him and the president. That's really what led to this. He describes the party as a tech centric, budget conscious, pro energy, and centrist party with the goal of drawing both disaffected Democrats and Republicans. Now, this is easier said than done.

This is not the first attempt to create a third party. There are actually like four or five of them already in existence that don't have any traction. It's very difficult to gain any traction as a third party. You would essentially have to set up a political party in all 50 states because all the local rules and things like that, it's all different. You need a lot of money, which fortunately he has. How much he wants to spend on this is another issue. But he has the resources to do it if he wants to.

Jason Hall: I think the investing take, if we circle back around to Tesla and is honored as you joked there at the beginning, the boy who cried wolf, clearly, Tesla shareholders, as much as from a political perspective, I'm sure there's a lot of people, no matter your political affiliation, that are so frustrated with the environment that support the idea of this. Tesla needs to figure out how to start selling more Teslas. They need the resources from selling more Teslas to pay for so many things. The company is at a major inflection point right now. Dan Ives talked about this with where they stand with trying to start bringing robotics to commercial use in the next few years. We've seen what's going on in Austin with autonomous driving. That's such a massive future part of the business. You got to start selling more Teslas and generate the cash flow to fund these things. There's even more headwinds now with some things in the spending bill that was passed that are going to gut a pretty important part of Tesla's profitability with emissions credits. There's a lot of reasons for investors to certainly be concerned about this wherever you stand as an engaged citizen.

Anand Chokkavelu: Elon Musk is famous for his bold predictions. After this break, we'll have some of our own.

Time for a segment we call bold predictions. Jason, start us off. What's your bold prediction?

Jason Hall: I'm going to stick with the theme from the show today, Anand, and talk about Tesla. I think Tesla's stock in the near term, it's probably going to rebound. But those robotics ambitions, the autonomous driving ambitions, I think they might be about as successful as the Solar Roof has been so far, and that's to say not very. At least not within the next five years' time. Now, a couple of reasons why. Number 1, I think we've seen some very ambitious, you talked about Musk's predictions about things. They've accomplished a lot of great things, but always years and years later. I think that's going to continue to play out.

But I think the concern that I have, and this is really at the heart of the prediction is that while the stock might rebound in the near term, I think the next few years are going to be really, really tough for Tesla and probably tough for Tesla shareholders because there's so much of those future prospects that are baked into today's price. I think as the realization comes out that those things are going to take longer and longer to monetize, and they might be harder to monetize if Tesla can't start selling more Teslas instead of less Teslas, then shareholders may be really in for a tough time in the next five years or so.

Matt Frankel: I'll make a very bold prediction, and I'm going to say that the Fed is going to surprise the market and cut rates this month when they meet at the end of July. The market's only pricing in about a 10% chance of that happening right now. But based on what the Fed governors have said, other than Jerome Pell, it's more likely than that to happen. I think there's a lot of economic data between now and then, a lot of trade deals that can be settled between now and then to calm the Fed's nerves. I think it's going to happen earlier than people think.

Jason Hall: That would be positive for Tesla.

Matt Frankel: True.

Anand Chokkavelu: Here at The Motley Fool, we live on feedback and Amazon gift cards. Be part of that feedback or to ask a question. Email us at podcast at fool.com. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. Don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards. It is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

Anand Chokkavelu: Jason Hall, Matt Frankel, the entire Motley Fool Money team, I'm Anand Chokkavelu. My bold prediction is that we'll see you tomorrow.

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Anand Chokkavelu, CFA has positions in Amazon and Target. Jason Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Matt Frankel has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Target, Tesla, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Where Will Realty Income Stock Be in 5 Years?

Key Points

  • Realty Income weathered some tough headwinds over the past five years.

  • But it continued to raise its dividend as its AFFO increased.

  • It might not consistently beat the market, but it’s still a great long-term buy.

Realty Income (NYSE: O), one of the world's largest real estate investment trusts (REITs), is often considered a dependable income investment. It sports a forward yield of 5.6%, it pays its dividends monthly, and it's raised its payout 131 times since its IPO in 1994.

As a REIT, Realty Income must distribute at least 90% of its pre-tax income to its investors as dividends to maintain a favorable tax rate. It leases its 15,621 properties to 1,565 different clients in over 89 industries in the U.S., U.K., and Europe, and its occupancy rate has never dipped below 96%. It's also a capital-light triple net lease REIT -- which means its tenants need to cover their own property taxes, insurance premiums, and maintenance fees.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

Plants sprouting from stacks of coins.

Image source: Getty Images.

Over the past five years, Realty Income's stock price fell about 3%. Like many other REITs, it struggled in 2022 and 2023 as rising rates made it more expensive to purchase new properties, stirred up macro headwinds for its tenants, and drove some of its income investors toward risk-free CDs and T-bills. But if we include its reinvested dividends, it still delivered a total return of 25%. So will Realty Income's stock rally over the next five years as interest rates decline, or does it face other unpredictable challenges?

What happened to Realty Income over the past few years?

Realty Income merged with VEREIT in 2021 and Spirit Realty in 2024. Those mergers more than doubled its number of properties from 2020 to 2024, but it still maintained a high occupancy rate as it grew its adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) and dividends per share.

Metric

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Total year-end properties

6,592

10,423

12,237

13,458

15,621

Year-end occupancy rate

97.9%

98.5%

99%

98.6%

98.7%

AFFO per share

$3.39

$3.59

$3.92

$4.00

$4.19

Dividends per share

$2.71

$2.91

$2.97

$3.08

$3.17

Data source: Realty Income.

Some of Realty's top tenants -- including Walgreens, 7-Eleven, and Dollar Tree -- struggled with store closures over the past few years. However, stronger tenants like Dollar General, Walmart, and Home Depot consistently offset that pressure by opening new stores.

Realty Income still doesn't generate more than 3.4% of its annualized rent from a single tenant, and it locks its tenants into long-term leases with an average term of nearly 10 years. That diversification and stickiness insulates it from economic downturns.

What will happen to Realty Income over the next five years?

Over the next five years, Realty Income will likely expand in Europe to curb its dependence on the U.S. market. Unlike its leases in the U.S., most of its European leases are tethered to the consumer price index, which allows it to raise its rent to keep pace with inflation. It will likely ramp up its investments in data centers to profit from the secular growth of the cloud and AI markets, and scoop up more properties at favorable prices in sale-leaseback deals (in which businesses sell their own real estate and lease it back to cut costs). It could also expand into more experiential markets -- like gyms, resorts, and restaurants -- to further diversify its portfolio.

Realty still generates most of its rental income from the retail sector, but those tenants should face fewer headwinds as inflation subsides and interest rates decline. Lower interest rates should also make CDs and T-bills less attractive and drive more investors back toward REITs.

From 2019 to 2024, Realty Income grew its AFFO at a CAGR of nearly 5%. If it continues to grow its AFFO at a CAGR of 5% from 2024 to 2030 -- and still trades at 14 times its trailing AFFO -- its stock price could rise 33% to about $77 within the next five years. It should continue to raise its dividends and stay within its historical yield of 4%-6%.

So while Realty Income might not consistently beat the S&P 500 -- which has delivered an average annual return of 10% since its inception -- it should remain a stable investment for investors who need a reliable stream of monthly income. That's why I personally own shares of Realty Income, and why I think it's a solid long-term play.

Should you invest $1,000 in Realty Income right now?

Before you buy stock in Realty Income, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Realty Income wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $699,558!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $976,677!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,060% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 180% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 30, 2025

Leo Sun has positions in Realty Income. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Home Depot, Realty Income, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

My 2 Favorite Stocks to Buy Right Now

Key Points

  • Target is struggling and has become oversold.

  • Sea Limited is making a comeback amid growth in all three of its business segments.

A market at all-time highs is mixed news for investors wanting to put more money to work. Although the momentum points to a positive direction, the bargains in the stock market tend to be more challenging to find.

Fortunately for investors, some stocks buck overall trends and can be buys even with record stock prices. Knowing this, investors may want to give additional consideration to the following stocks, and possibly add positions if they prove to be a fit for their portfolio.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

Favorite, happy, pointing.

Image source: Getty Images.

Target

Investors have turned on Target (NYSE: TGT) in recent years for a variety of reasons. High inventories, a sluggish economy, and controversial political stances contributed to declining foot traffic and lower sales in its nearly 2,000 stores across the U.S.

Those challenges also come at a time when rivals such as Walmart and Costco have managed to grow sales levels. Consequently, those stocks have risen as Target stock has fallen, and today the retailing giant is down by more than 60% from its all-time high.

However, the market has seen increasing indications that the stock has become oversold. Despite its troubles, Target stock is up by around 20% from its April low. Also, even with this increase, Target trades at a P/E ratio of around 11, comparing favorably to Walmart at 42 times earnings and Costco at a 56 P/E ratio.

The lower stock price and valuation have also had a positive effect on Target's dividend yield. As a result, its payout now returns 4.3%, far above the S&P 500 average of 1.2%.

Target also increased the dividend for the 54th straight year in June, making the company a Dividend King. That streak means it is less likely Target will stop the yearly payout hikes, as abandoning such a streak would probably further diminish confidence in the company at a time when it has struggled.

Also, CEO Brian Cornell has held that role since 2014. With the stock down over the last three years and his contract coming due around the September time frame, Target may experience a change in leadership in the near future.

Target's difficulties are likely not over, and a change in CEO could add to the uncertainty. But with the company still in a position to recover and the valuation at rock-bottom levels, its stock may be too appealing not to buy at current prices.

Sea Limited

Sea Limited (NYSE: SE) stock is available to U.S. investors through American depositary receipts. Still, the Singapore-based tech conglomerate is likely not a familiar name outside of Southeast Asia and Latin America.

The company is made up of three segments. Garena is a major force in the gaming world, particularly with its mobile game Free Fire again becoming one of the world's largest mobile games as measured by daily active users. Its other segments, e-retailer Shopee and its fintech enterprise Monee, lead both of those industries in seven Southeast Asian countries.

Sea Limited is also strong in Brazil despite competition from MercadoLibre, the e-commerce and fintech leader in Latin America.

Sea Limited stock dropped from lofty highs in 2021 when it made the ill-advised decisions to introduce Shopee to Europe and Latin America, places where it held no obvious competitive advantage. At the same time, Free Fire lost its No. 1 position and fell victim to a ban in the world's most populous country, India.

However, Shopee has scaled back in markets outside Southeast Asia and now follows the lead of MercadoLibre and Amazon, bolstering its logistics network in its home markets. Moreover, aside from Free Fire, it again operates esports in India, serving as a bullish sign for its stock.

Sea Limited stock is in recovery mode. Despite still trading at a 60% discount from its all-time high, the stock has more than quadrupled in value since its 2023 low.

Those gains have taken Sea Limited's P/E ratio to 105. Nonetheless, the recovery-driven profit growth places the forward P/E ratio at 38, a potentially attractive level for a fast-growing tech conglomerate. With all three segments back in growth mode, the stock is likely to continue moving higher as it seeks to return to all-time highs.

Should you invest $1,000 in Target right now?

Before you buy stock in Target, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Target wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $699,558!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $976,677!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 1,060% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 180% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 30, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Will Healy has positions in MercadoLibre, Sea Limited, and Target. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Costco Wholesale, MercadoLibre, Sea Limited, Target, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Earning Attention With Seth Godin

AI, marketing, brand, creativity, These are just a few of the subjects that Seth Godin can talk about with eloquence and insight. In this episode of Rule Breaker Investing, the Purple Cow author joins Motley Fool co-founder David Gardner and guest host Andy Cross, The Motley Fool's chief investment officer, to shed light on what earns attention, transaction, and loyalty.

To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. When you're ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

A full transcript is below.

Where to invest $1,000 right now

When our analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor’s total average return is 995%* — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500.

They just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy right now, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025

This podcast was recorded on May 21, 2025.

David Gardner: This week a special treat. Seth Godin, only on this week's Rule Breaker Investing.

Among the many remarkable traits of Seth Godin, one of my favorites is the power of his brevity. In honor of Seth, you just got the shortest cold open I've ever done. This week, I'm featuring our recent Motley Fool interview from Fool24. That's the video channel on our website with superstar business author Seth Godin, joined by Andy Cross, as well, our Chief Investment Officer, that interview is coming right up. But first, a quick reminder next week is your mailbag. I love receiving your thoughts and questions every month. Reach us at [email protected] or tweet us at RBI podcast.

As I shared at the start of the year, my 2025 book, Rule Breaker Investing is now available for pre-order. After 30 years of stock picking, this is my magnum opus, a lifetime of lessons distilled into one definitive guide, and each week until the book launches on September 16, I'm sharing a random excerpt. I crack open the book to a random page and read a few sentences. Let's do it. Here's this week's Page Breaker preview a succinct Godin-like statement, summing up my investing approach in exactly 20 words. I quote. "I try to find excellence, buy excellence, and add to excellence over time. I sell mediocrity. That's how I invest." That's this week's Page Breaker preview to pre-order my final word on stock picking shape by three decades of market crushing success. Just type Rule Breaker Investing into amazon.com, Barnes and Noble.com, or wherever you shop for great books. When you think about it, a great investment book literally pays for itself, and then some. To everyone who's already pre-ordered, thanks. That means a lot to me. In the words of the poet, Taylor Allison Swift, our next guest is feeling 22. Seth Godin has 22 best sellers in 39 languages. He's an Internet entrepreneur, best-selling author, renowned speaker and marketing. Sure, expert. He's posted more than 9,000 times on his blog, and his 22 books, I think I have that number right. He can correct me if I'm wrong. It'll destroy the Taylor Swift opening if I don't have that right, Andy. His 22 books include The Dip, Linchpin, Purple Cow, and Tribes. I want to throw Free Prize inside in there as well, book I love. His newest book is the best seller, This is Strategy Make Better Plans, published last year. He's one of the two most famous people from Mount Vernon, Virginia. Seth Godin, welcome back.

Seth Godin: You guys, you're great. David, you're a genius. I'm from Mount Vernon, New York, but I'll take it.

David Gardner: I rarely do this step. I'm going to throw my producer Mac Greer under the bus for, I would say, inadequate research that caused me to make, What is an embarrassing gas?

Seth Godin: It's not embarrassing. I just don't want to take any credit for being from a place I'm not from and move people from Virginia down the ladder. It's not fair. [laughs].

Andy Cross: It's all in the storytelling, anyways, Seth.

David Gardner: Seth, let's go right to AI because how can we not? Seven years ago, you joined me on my podcast. You were my first ever author in August. It was August 1st, 2018, and you described daily blogging back then as the best way to sharpen your thinking. Today, so many creators lean on AI assistant like ChatGPT to draft, edit, spark ideas. How has AI changed your own writing process, Seth, if at all, and what would your advice be to someone who worries that AI will cheat their way to insight?

Seth Godin: Let's say it's 1,900, 1905, and we're talking about electricity. I think it's a little bit of a trap to ask about, are you using a light bulb at night to help you type? Because electricity opened the door for so many miracles that we had no idea were coming. Claude is one of my closest compatriots. I find ChatGPT to be arrogant and lazy, but Claude and I get along great, and I never ask it to do my writing for me, but that's a personal choice because I write because I want to, not because some teacher told me I had to. What I do with Claude that continually amazes me are two things. First, is if you have a complicated document, 30, 40 pages, I had one that was written by 10 different people over the course of a year, and you upload that document and say to Claude, "Please find the internal inconsistencies, please ask me five hard questions, please criticize the structure," it will write you a two page memo better than most humans could do. The second thing I use it for is, I'll come up with a list of three or four or five things and say, "Give me four more." Of the four it gives me, at least two of them are things I never thought of that are really important. This idea of, did I think of all the things on my list, is great, but, two years from now, both of these uses are trivial compared to what AI is going to be doing to our lives.

David Gardner: Do you want to make any predictions, Seth?

Seth Godin: My prediction is this. Everything AI has done so far for the typical person in business in the developed world is solo. It's me and the AI. But the Internet has two words in it, Inter, which means connected and net, which means connected. That's what fuels everything that works on the Internet. Once AI says to me, "I noticed you were writing X, Y or Z, David, who's also using the same tool is working on the same thing. Should I connect you guys?" Whoa. What happens when my databases talk to each other or my databases talk to your databases? What happens when we create this amplification of community, not just amplification of knowledge? That adds two zeros, I think, to the way the world works.

David Gardner: Seth, you've written about how true pros don't fear amateurs, but I think a lot of pros are fearing ChatGPT, generative AI, Claude, whatever it is. Should we?

Seth Godin: Well, I've had technology put my projects out of business before, and it will do it again. What I mean by true pros, don't fear amateurs, when the camera came along, a whole bunch of people who were painters poo putt it. When the iPhone came along, wedding photographers freaked out. How dare guests at a wedding take pictures? Don't they know how hard I work to get all this fancy equipment? But the best wedding photographers got busier after that, not less busy because you're now charging for something that's not a commodity. If you made a living doing genre covers for science fiction novels, you don't have a job anymore, because if there's a genre, AI can do it better than you can. What it does is it requires you to go beyond genre and to be on the frontier. If I think about something like radiology, there are plenty of professional radiologists, but they're doing genre radiology by the book. Now an X-ray machine can instantly and for free, read a wrist fracture 95% of the time. I don't need a mediocre radiologist ever again. This is great news because now the 90% of the population that didn't even have access to X-rays and is going to. It's really bad news if you're by the book anything, and so that's what I mean by being a professional is you're not just checking the box and handing in the form.

David Gardner: Such a good distinction. Let's talk a little bit more about AI. I'm wondering, especially Seth, I admire so much so many of your thoughts, words, deeds, your books. I've read a bunch of them. Branding is always top of mind when I think about you, and obviously, I think about the Motley Fool brand. That's just our company, but branding matters a lot to me as an investor. In fact, I think that branding is often misunderstood because there's no number for it on the balance sheet or the income statement, and so most people calculate their valuation ratios without factoring in what, to me, might be the central asset of every great company. Every great company sets go and ends up looking overvalued because we're not counting brand. But I care about brand. Do you think AI is being well-branded today? Does AI have a branding problem?

Seth Godin: What's a brand? It's not a logo. The Motley Fool logo is a tiny fraction of the goodness of Motley Fool. You didn't win the logo sweepstakes, but you built a brand that matters. And if you look at AI logos, they're terrible. A brand is simply the promise that an organization makes and our expectation of what to expect. Hyatt has a logo, but Nike has a brand. If Hyatt came out with a line of sneakers, we have no idea what it would be like. But if Nike opened a hotel chain, we all know what it would be like. [laughs] And so that's the brand value, if you're not paying extra, there is no brand value, if you're not taking risks because you give them the benefit of the doubt, there is no brand value. Fifty years ago, the mass murderer Marlborough had an enormous brand value because people would cross the street if the convenience store was sold out of Marlborough's and buy their brand across the street. The thing about AI is anthropic as they say 600 people in their marketing department. I have no idea what they're doing because there's no consistency, there's no structure to what I should be expecting from them. It's just engineers launch stuff, and then the marketing people go to meetings and try to catch up.

AI has a brand in the sense that more people are paying more money for this new technology than has ever happened before for any technology I can recall. We're paying the money because of what it's going to do for us tomorrow, and so there's this expectation. The challenge they have, is in order to get our attention, they have made insane promises, and regularly they break those promises, and so I wouldn't trust AI to drive my car, and I wouldn't trust AI to write my prescriptions, and I wouldn't trust AI to write my books. But it does a little of those things all the time. Going forward, if there's going to be enterprise value greater than the tech value, they're going to have to develop this soft tissue brand, because I think the tech value, as always happens, will become a commodity. That means you either have to have a network effect, or a benefit of the doubt loyalty brand, or else it's a commodity you're going to charge with, it costs you to make the electricity work and a penny more, but you can't get a premium because if not, I'll just switch to somebody else.

Andy Cross: Seth, just a quick follow up there. You've written a lot about authenticity of brands. Generative AI and those tools, do they have an authenticity problem? Then a parallel to that is just in general, how do you evaluate the authenticity of a brand's marketing?

Seth Godin: I've written that I think authenticity is a crock, and I think it's a trap, and I think it should be avoided. Friends should be authentic, professionals should be consistent. If I go to see Taylor Swift and I pay $2,000 for the tickets, and she has a cold, I don't want her to act like she has a cold. I want her to fake it, and act like the best version of Taylor Swift, because she's a professional, and the same thing is true for anything I transact with a stranger hoofer. What I want from AI is not authenticity because I don't care if it's authentically having a hallucination. I want it to consistently keep its promise, and part of the job the marketers have. Well, so let me explain about marketing in tech firms. The greatest value created ever by a marketer in a tech firm is not Steve Jobs, it's Marissa Mayer. Marissa Mayer, who didn't have marketing in her title was one of the first employees at Google. At the time I was at Yahoo. Yahoo had 183 links on its homepage. Google was heading down that path really fast, and Marissa Mayer put a stake in the ground and stopped at two, and every time the engineers tried to make Google more complicated, she made them stop. That single act, which took five plus years of diligence, created what is it now, $1 trillion worth of value, because otherwise, it would have just been another place to do search. Yahoo was lazy.

I was the third member of the marketing department after they acquired my company, and so the two people who were in the marketing department, they were just in charge of putting up a billboard here and there. That wasn't marketing. Marketing is, what is the story we're going to live? What are the promises we're going to make and the promises we're not going to make? When people think of us, what are they going to think of? This has been missing in tech for a long time, and so you end up with people who let the tech run the company, and as a result, they inevitably slam into the wall.

David Gardner: I want to make sure I have my math and my history right. Seth, when you said there are two options on the Google homepage, I think one was search, and the other was, I'm feeling lucky?

Seth Godin: Correct. They're taking it down as of, like, the next couple of weeks.

David Gardner: I have to admit I haven't really clicked. I'm feeling lucky for a long time, so maybe but I love the whimsy of it.

Seth Godin: They didn't want anyone to click on it. They just wanted to show confidence. [laughs]

David Gardner: Let's shift now from branding to permission marketing. Early on, Seth Godin coined the term permission marketing to contrast with interruption tactics. These days, we've got some cookies crumbling, privacy regulations, proliferating, first party data, now king. Seth, how do you see permission marketing evolving and where should marketers focus to earn genuine consent permitted consent in 2025?

Seth Godin: When you and I met, it was 1991 or '92, and I think somewhere in there and I had just invented email marketing. Someone needed to invent it, and it was me. The whole point was, it's not spam. I testified at the US Senate against spam and got kicked out of the Direct Marketing Association in response. The Direct Marketing Association said, how dare you invite regulation of anything any company wants to do to steal attention? I said, you're completely missing the point. The good guys want there to be regulation. The good guys want it to be rational and quiet and trustworthy. It's the scammers and the spammers that want it to be the Wild West. You, the DMA, you should be on my team. I was thrilled years later, they let me back in because they understood the mistake they had made. The stuff you're talking about, it's all ham-handed, but it's all in response to greedy, lazy organizations skirting around the edges. Permission is simple. It's not the fine print. It's a simple question. If you didn't show up tomorrow, would we miss you? Would we miss you if you didn't send us that email? Would we miss you if you didn't update your website? If the answer is no, then you're a spammer, and if the answer is yes, you've earned permission. I'm confident that if the Fool stopped sending its fans and its subscribers your newsletter, you would hear from a lot of people within five minutes. That's because you've earned their permission, not you have some legal loophole you're exploiting.

David Gardner: I really appreciate that point, and I do think the Motley Fool does a good job in some regards, and I think we also send out a lot of emails, too. I don't think we're 100% yet, but I certainly think we're on the path. Thirty-one years in since you embedded email marketing Seth, a lot of people are still just trying to figure out how to do it best. It's funny, just a quick reflection, and then Andy's going to have a follow up, but my reflection is that what you just said, if we didn't send it, would anyone notice? Would anyone care? That's exactly the question that I ask in something I call the snap test when I look at companies, and I'm thinking like, will I invest in this stock or that one? The snap test was later made popular. I first wrote about this in our 1998 book, Rule Makers, Rule Breakers but it was later made popular by Thanos of Marvel Avengers fame when he snapped his fingers and half of the world, including superheroes, disappeared. But literally in 1998, I said, here's the way I think you can decide whether you should buy a stock or not. When you snap your fingers, if that company disappeared overnight, would anyone notice? Would anyone care? It has focused on impact and who's got the love out there and it's just fascinating to me that you basically said the same thing, and we're using different contexts.

Seth Godin: Well, I'm just stealing all your ideas.

David Gardner: Not at all. No, we stole email marketing from you, sir. [laughs] Andy,

Andy Cross: Seth, how about the progression or the regression in permission marketing when you think about the technology of programmatic ads and cookies and targeting over the years? Where do we stand nowadays with permission marketing?

Seth Godin: Well, it's like when one of your kids grows up and ends up in a federal prison. [laughs] When we were running Yoyodyne, we had a 82% open rate and a 33% response rate to the emails we sent. We're the largest recipient and sender of email in the world at the time that was doing permission marketing. Those were our numbers week after week. Now, for most organizations, it's 0.000001%, and the reason is the inevitable race to the bottom caused by people skirting around the edges to make their quarterly income go up. Because they're like, It's OK if I burn it down because it's an emergency, and so they cheat. It was naive of me when I wrote the book and in the years afterwards to not expect that that would happen because it always happens. What Google could have done is established better standards for how these interactions are going to go down so that good action would be more rewarded, and the open web is magnificent. We don't have an open web. We have a semi-open web, and when somebody who has enough money and resources comes in and decides to bend it to their will, then the principles and ethics of what I'm talking about often go out the window because Milton Friedman was wrong. We need both independent entities they are trying to maximize their profit and their shareholder value and community action that's organized around what's best for the culture. The purpose of culture isn't to enable capitalism. The purpose of capitalism is to enable culture, and so we're going to see all of this craft and destruction, and then the next thing is going to come, and then the next thing is going to come. My hope is that AI is going to work at least as hard to defend my attention as it's going to work to steal my attention.

David Gardner: Seth, let me shift now to something that I really appreciate about you, and that's your terseness. That's how concise you are. Truly, and I remember talking about this seven years ago with you on the Rule Breaker Investing podcast, for every blog you write, you've thrown out four or five. There's a lot, and you probably still do that or maybe you're more efficient. It's just two or three of these days, but I really appreciate the effort that you've put in to make things as tight as possible. I would say in some ways, Seth, you've built a career on brevity. Today's short form video, this is where I'm heading now, thinking TikTok I don't actually use TikTok, but turns out a lot of people do, I think Instagram. I also don't use it, and even punch your economy of attention, 15 seconds of content for a lot of videos. What lessons from your writing practice might you do this content yourself? If so, what translates?

Seth Godin: What do we make? I think most people who listen to this make decisions. You don't make pottery, you don't dig ditches, you make decisions. Maybe you make a difference, and maybe you make change happen. I'm a teacher. What I make is I help my students who have opted in to whatever we're doing like right now, change the way they see the world, change the way they get what they're getting. The rule is, put the effort in to make the teaching as cogent and concise as possible, but no more than that.[laughs] There are all these ancient fables of the guy who knocks on the Sage's door and says, wise guy, while I'm standing here on one foot, teach me everything there is, the meaning of life. My response would be, if you're only willing to wait long enough for you to stand on one foot, you don't care enough to change, and I'm not here to entertain you.

The reason I don't show up on TikTok is not that I couldn't get a lot of use because I understand the medium and I understand how to do a dance there that people might click on or the algorithm would like. It's that it wouldn't get me anything. I don't sell stuff online, but I know people who have had 42 million views of something and sold four units. The goal is not to make Mark Zuckerberg happy. The goal is not to make the TikTok algorithm happy. The goal is to achieve what you set out to achieve. What's the purpose of this work? I sometimes run into people who said, I read a two-paragraph blog post of yours, and it changed my life, but I'm way more likely to run into someone who says, I read your book and it changed my life. I'm even more likely to run into someone who said I took the altMBA, which I used to run, and that changed my life. What I'm looking for are people who are ready to lean in, and the short stuff opens the door, but they've got to then teach themselves or it's not going to work, and the problem with TikTok is there's not a lot of autodidactic experience going on there. There's just amusement.

David Gardner: Do I recall correctly that you only took one English course in high? There's some story, I remember you telling Seth about your own schooling in English.

Seth Godin: My high school English teacher, I took all the classes in high school, but she wrote in my yearbook, you are the bane of my existence, and you will never amount to anything. I still have it. I dedicated one.

David Gardner: Is that really what a teacher wrote into all like that?

Seth Godin: I dedicated one of my books to her cause was slightly tongue in cheek. My dad made a deal with my two sisters and me. We'd have to pay room and board in college. He'd pay tuition, but we had a major in engineering in exchange. Because he said, learn to solve problems, the rest of this is a bonus. Take as many English classes as you want, but first learn to solve problems. When I got to school, I discovered a loophole in the course catalog, so I took engineering and a lot of philosophy classes. I loved the thinking and philosophy, and I took exactly one English class. What I discovered is college-level English, at least for me, wasn't about learning to express myself the way I wanted to in a practical way. It was about literature, and I have too short of an attention span for that. That's correct. One English class in college.

Andy Cross: Seth, back to the, well, a little bit tied to attention spans and the marketing question that David had asked. I'm really curious about this concept between grabbing and earning someone's attention, especially today, as David said and you all were talking about just the brevity of information out there and the volume of information out there. Explain to us how we can earn someone's attention versus grabbing someone's attention?

Seth Godin: Two quick case studies. This is a book that saved my career. I'd been kicked out of publishing, and then I wrote this book called Purple Cow. It came in a milk cart, and I self-published the first 10,000 copies. Now, that's a gimmick, and I'm aware it's a gimmick, but I was only selling it to people who already liked my work, who were reading me in Fast Company. I sold out of the 10,000 copies, five dollars a copy, broke even. How did everyone else find out about it so that it has sold millions of copies? Is it because I did stunts and hung from a building and figured out how to make a commotion? Zero people. It's because somebody put this on their desk. They didn't put it on their desk because they like me. They don't know me. They put it on their desk because it would benefit them, earning them status or affiliation or the workplace they wanted to be if their co-workers knew about it. You earn attention never by doing a stunt or by grabbing it. You earn attention when someone who likes you tells someone else. If I think about David and the heritage of the Motley Fool, you had a lucky break at the beginning, which is that Ted gave you a channel on basically the pre-Internet. But that was still only what, 10,000 people at the beginning? How did you get from 10,000 people to the millions of people that know you and trust you now? Is it because you ran a billboard in Times Square? I don't think so.

It's because people who were on board with you told their friends, they told their spouse, they told their peers. Why did they do that? Because you did something worth talking about. This is the essence of the Purple Cow, and it is missed by almost everybody. When Apple goes out and hypes and hypes a TV show. Well, that's because they don't believe in themselves enough to have the show do what it could do, which is spread organically from viewer to viewer. That is how we ended up with everything that happened after the original Super Bowl ad. It wasn't that Apple ran better ads after that. It's that they made a product that people like me told their friends about. I think that Serrandos said Netflix understands this way better than whoever's running Apple TV, because they're trying to make shows that don't make critics happy, but that people want to talk about. It's that simple.

David Gardner: Let's stick with Purple Cow, one of my favorite business books. Back in Purple Cow, at one point in the book, Seth, you argue that winning companies, a fun word, cheat by building unique assets. I'm going to quote because, in fact, I have a book called Rule Breaker Investing coming out this fall, and I quote directly from you, this passage because it's so relevant for me when I think about what companies I want to be invested in. Here's a little bit of Seth Godin. "Starbucks is cheating. The coffee bar phenomenon was invented by them, and now whenever we think coffee, we think Starbucks. Vanguard is cheating. Their low-cost index funds make it impossible for a full service broker to compete. Amazon.com is cheating. Their free shipping and huge selection give them an unfair advantage over the neighborhood store." A little bit later in that passage, you end up asking, "Why aren't you cheating?" You ask rhetorically, of the reader. I will note some years later, you wrote a separate blog about how you really shouldn't cheat. Cheating is not a good thing, and you explain very clearly the other cheating that we think of, and that's not good. But I've always loved that passage, and that's why I adduce it in my book. But Seth, I want to ask you, I don't know how much time you spend looking at emerging businesses or industries today. I hope some because that's my question.

Do you see anybody cheating today in a way that impresses you? They just have an unfair advantage and they're exploding it.

Seth Godin: First, I don't remember writing any of those words. It makes me smile to read it. It was so long ago I had to call it amazon.com.

David Gardner: It's true.

Seth Godin: I made the decision a long time ago that I generally don't talk about what's going to be the next big company because every time I do, I curse them and they fail. This is your job. You are much better at it than me. [laughs] But here's what I would say. If you think of a brand that you admire, it's not because they have a good logo. It's because that brand is doing something that is an unfair advantage. I am deep in on Patagonia, almost every article of clothing I own. Could I tell if my eyes were closed, if it was Patagonia? Probably not. But I like the way it makes me feel to be the person that is going to buy that item from a company that stands for that. No one's going to be the next Patagonia because that slot is taken. Luxottica figured out how to corner the market, and it took an innovator like Neil at Warby Parker to expose the $400 premium that they had been charging as a tax to everybody. No one's going to be the next Warby Parker. There's no room to be the next Warby Parker. You can be a bottom fisher making a nickel at a time, but Warby Parker figured out how to play a remarkable game when the space changes.

My dad used to call this a change agent. Technology, big shifts, these are agents of change. When it shows up, we rescramble the board, and we saw this happen when we got streaming and YouTube and everything and cable before that. ABC, CBS, NBC, boom, toast because we scrambled the board. What I'm seeing right now is the biggest scramble of the board since the Internet and probably bigger, which is AI. If you have a job where you do something that someone could write down what they want, they're probably going to get AI to do it cheaper because if that's all the job involves is writing down the steps in the spec, I got a machine that's going to do that for me for $20 a month. That giant scramble means a whole bunch of organizations that do something that requires judgment and insight are going to arise. I think many of them are going to have very few people who work there, and most of them aren't going to need to go public, but some of them will choose to, and we're not going to recognize the corporate landscape, I think, in eight years. I really don't.

Andy Cross: Seth, when you think about remarkable companies tied to the purple cows, are there key signs of what makes in your eyes a remarkable company?

Seth Godin: Generally, there's only a little bit about them that's interesting, and then everything else they're doing is boring. That they're not trying to change everything all at once all the time. They have one principle that they stick with. In the new book, This is Strategy, I call this an elegant strategy. Microsoft said, "We're going to be the IBM of software." That's it. If we do this right, if everything we do is not about making the single best product or the most cutting edge product, but just a well supported, well sold product that the Fortune 1000 wants to buy, and we just keep doing that. No one ever got fired for buying Microsoft, we'll do fine. That we can go down the list of companies for the ages. It's not that they have a fancy elevator pitch because no one ever bought anything on an elevator. That's not it. [laughs] It's that they have a compass. The compass says, the more we do this, the better it goes. That's what you need to have. At Walmart, one of the rare exceptions, Walmart's exception was, the more we lower price, the better we do. Because lower price got the more volume, volume got the more container ships, more container ships, got the lower price, and they could repeat and repeat . But everybody else who's remarkable has to say something other than low price. The more Shake Shack acts in a way that McDonald's is afraid to go, they do better. Just keep going down the list. The more we do blank, the better we do. That's what makes you remarkable.

Andy Cross: That's great. I think that reminds me of Costco for the same reason. They're remarkable is because they have the membership business that is so reasonably priced, and they use the advantages of their scale and their low product footprint to be able to keep prices at rock bottoms level, and they make the profit up on the membership side.

Seth Godin: Well, also, and you guys are much more expert than me. As a marketer, I think what Costco did was they created a cultural narrative that said, I'm a good parent because I'm willing to buy ridiculous quantities of ridiculous items to support my family. Having 40 pounds of Vlasic pickles in a container, that's part of the brand ethos. They didn't try to out Walmart . I'll tell you one aside about this. In 1999, 2000, Walmart hired me to come give a speech to their entire digital division. I flew to Bentonville, Arkansas. The local only hotel lost my reservation. I slept on the floor in their lobby. The next morning, I went to the headquarters. There's 400 people in the room, and there's a banner behind me. It had been there for six months. Remember, this is 25 years ago. The banner says, "We can't out Amazon. Twenty five years ago, they realized their strategy was their strategy, and Jeff's was Jeff's, and if they started chasing him, the public markets would just murder them. They had to say, "No, we got 25 years to do a different thing, and then we'll see what happens." You need the humility to realize you're not going to be for everybody, but you got to be for somebody.

David Gardner: Let's stick a little bit with stuff that's cheap and stuff that's increasingly free. Because Seth, I'm just curious of your thoughts on the topic of, "Hey, I'm about to lose my job because something can do it faster, cheaper, easier." If that happens enough times, I've sometimes wondered whimsically, rhetorically aloud. If that happens enough times, that means so much stuff has gotten so cheap that maybe we don't actually need full time jobs as we once did, because these days we get Khan Academy lectures for free. You and I used to have to dial, collect, mom and dad, collect call from Seth, dollar an hour international fees. That's all free today. Google Docs, last I checked, turn-by-turn GPS navigation. There are so many things now in 2025 that are cheap or near free that we used to pay quite a bit for. I'm just curious, Seth, can you see a future where stuff keeps getting more shared, more cheaper, more free, where we don't actually worry about being displaced from our full time job?

Seth Godin: There are a few things you're twisting together here. Again, there are parts of this where I'm consistently wrong, so let's just leave that aside for a second. [laughs] Historically, every piece of technology has displaced a certain labor. When the steam shovel came along, ditch diggers were not happy. When writing came along, Plato famously said it's the end of civilization because people won't have to memorize stuff anymore. It's been going on for a very long time. Every single time that displacement has led to more jobs, not fewer jobs. Past performance might not be an indicator of future, but that's been true every single time. Number 2, we keep making certain things cheaper. The amount of time somebody used to have to go to work to get an hour of light in their home in the evening was three hours of work. Now, it's two seconds. The amount of money this pencil used to cost out of my income, it's so vanishingly small that pencils are free. Keep going down the list. We've been doing this for a very long time. But at the same time, we keep inventing all of this stuff that people say they need that they actually want. Most of what we do and buy and pay attention to in 2025 didn't exist in 1950 and no one missed it. [laughs] We're going to keep inventing these desires because human beings want two things in all areas.

Once we have a roof over our head, and we're not going to die tomorrow, we only want two things status and affiliation. Status is who eats lunch first? Who's up and who's down? Am I winning? What am I winning at? Some people get status by showing up at a board meeting in ratty clothes. Some people get status by showing up in a civil suit. Or affiliation, people like us do things like this. One of the rules apparently at the Motley Fool is you got to have those big headphones maybe with a little thing there [laughs] because people like us, that's how we show up at these events. [laughs] Affiliation works, for example, in Disney's favor, because if your kids are really into Mickey, it's probably because their friends are really into Mickey. If every single person had their favorite superhero, no one could make a living selling superhero stuff. Affiliation and status. Once we don't have to work, three hours to get an hour of electricity. Why do we still work? Why is it? David, how many billionaires do you know? 100, probably?

David Gardner: I'm invested in more than I know, I can say that.

Seth Godin: But I'm guessing you could pick up the phone and talk to 100 different billionaires, all of whom still work. What are they going to work for?

David Gardner: Good point?

Seth Godin: They're going to work for status and affiliation. We're not going to stop doing that. I am certain we're not going to stop doing that. Just like in the Star Trek world, people fight to get on the enterprise. Why? They could just stay home and use the Matter thing and eat peeled grapes, but they don't. Status and affiliation.

Andy Cross: Seth, outside of the billionaire landscape and the community, do you think that stands for everybody? Because I think there is this as we're thinking about 2025 and AI, we talked a little bit about it earlier. Just a little bit of fear out there about what is going to take my job the white collar side, that I didn't have even just six months ago or 12 months ago.

Seth Godin: The white collar people didn't complain when the punch press and the robot came along and took away the blue collar jobs and certainly, they're whining like crazy. It's going to take away your job. I am not doubting that one bit. What's going to happen is somebody is going to invent new jobs that offer status and affiliation for people who have pencils and light and all this other stuff they didn't have to pay for anymore because we keep doing that. If you do average work for average pay, for average customers, be prepared to be replaced. I am really confident that is likely. I'm not in favor of it. I wish people to have a smooth and calm life. But this is as normal as the world is ever going to be again. Today is peak normal.

Andy Cross: Seth, because you've written and talked so much about creativity, does that make creativity more important today or certainly as important as it was even just a few years ago?

Seth Godin: This is really cool. Do I have like four minutes to tell you the history of creativity? [laughs].

Andy Cross: Let's go.

Seth Godin: I just learned this the other day. The word creativity only showed up in the dictionary in the last 100 years. Creativity at work was invented by the Department of Defense in the 1950s and promoted as a way to keep white collar workers from getting too antsy. They started this whole idea of the creative at the ad agency and creativity. Before that, the expectation at work was you were going to do what you're told, and it was going to be brain dead boring. When the Industrial Revolution came to Manchester, England, they didn't have coffee carts that went up and down the aisle. They had gin carts, because people who were used to freedom in the farm had to go for 12, 13 hours in a dark room following instructions and then we got used to it. Most people do pretend creative work. The rest of the time, they're checking the boxes and filling out the forms and being part of the system. But now, that we've got a machine that's going to check the boxes, fill out the forms, and be the system, you're going to have to do actual creative work. That's going to be really stressful, particularly for people who are over 15-years-old, who got successful by turning off the part of their brain that wanted to have a spark, and now they're going to be on the hook for it. It's going to be as big of shift as when Gutenberg came out with the Bible, which caused meltdowns all over Europe because for the first time people could read this thing, instead of having someone tell them what it said. AI is going to say, "If you can't figure out how to do something that I haven't already imagined, you're going to be lower and lower in status." That's going to put a lot of people in a bad place for a while.

David Gardner: Seth, you referenced it briefly. Let's talk about it. Your new book, This is Strategy: Make Better Plans. This is the one I haven't read yet. Can you give us without causing our listeners not to go out and buy it a short prose, a cliffs notes version of This is Strategy: Make Better Plans.

Seth Godin: Part of my goal is that people don't need to buy my books because the book is an excuse for me to talk about it. If you want the souvenir edition, that's fine, and if you don't, that's fine. [laughs] If I could tell you everything in the book in 90 seconds, I would. The short version is tactics aren't the same as strategy. Strategy is a philosophy of becoming. It's the hard work we do before we do the hard work. If you have an elegant strategy, new tactics present themselves, that Warren Buffett told everybody his strategy and then just repeated the tactics as they shifted through the years. But the strategy stays the same, and what is missing from most people and most organizations is an ability to even talk about it. I argue that there are four surprising components which are systems because if you don't see the system, that means it's taking advantage of you. The college industrial complex, the wedding industrial complex, the capitalist system that drives you to think of some things as normal. It's a non-secret conspiracy that we never notice. There's time because tomorrow is different than today and everything the Motley Fool has ever done is about time because no one cares what a stock did yesterday, you're only talking about what it's going to do tomorrow. The third one games. Games are any human situation where there's scarcity and choices to be made. The fourth one I don't remember. But it's important that we learn to see how these pieces fit together so that we will be ready to make the change we want to make tomorrow.

David Gardner: When did the idea for the book first present itself to you years ago? Was it in a blog? How did these things germinate?

Seth Godin: It's all over the map. When we first met, I was in the book business, and so I went to bed every night knowing I needed to wake up in the morning with a book idea. I could only do a couple of books or one book a year, and I had to take my best shot. A book takes a really long time to write but I did it for work, and after a bunch of books, I stopped doing that because it's too much work. It doesn't pay to do it for a living. I only write a book when I have no choice. I write a book when it's the best way for me to share an idea. Some books like my book, Survival Is Not Enough, took me eight hours a day every day for a year, I threw out 100,000 words before the book was finished. Other books like The Dip I wrote in an 11-day fugue state, and it just came to me one day, and then I just wrote it. This book is a love letter to my friends who are stuck and it didn't take very long to write, but it's heartfelt in the sense that because I don't charge to coach my friends and because I don't do any consulting, I said if I was going to talk to someone I care about about why they're stuck or how the world works, what would I say? That's what this is.

Andy Cross: Seth, we spend a lot of time as analysts studying strategic plans of the companies we follow, and I want your guidance on how we can identify companies that truly have good strategic plans versus those that do not.

Seth Godin: In my experience, the ones that have a good strategic plan, it's really obvious that they do. Just before we got on, we were talking about that guy, Brad, who's building the roofing company. His strategy is super simple and it's like, on the first page of their 10K. Done. You might not agree with the strategy, but the strategy is not hidden. When Yahoo stopped being the center of the Internet, if you asked any 10 people at Yahoo, what's your strategy, they would give you 14 different answers, and they haven't had a strategy ever since. It's right there. Google had a strategy. then when they invented LLMs and what became AI, they freaked out because they said, this completely undermines our existing strategy. We don't know what to do, so they tried to keep the world from seeing AI, and now they're toast, because they can't do their old strategy anymore, and they're not winning with their possible new one. That was a good long run, but they lost the thread.

David Gardner: Let's move now to our game, buy sell or hold. Seth, you may or may not remember this. I'm springing this on you. I know you're ready for it. The key is, and I know you appreciate this about buy, sell, or hold. These are not stocks we're talking about.

Seth Godin: Oh, good. Then I'm fine.

David Gardner: We're talking about things happening in the world at large. The worlds of business in life and ask if they were stocks, Seth Godin, would you be buying, selling or holding? Let me kick it off with, let's go with this one. Is turning down more opportunities the key to doing your best work, or is that a branding luxury, Seth Godin buy, sell, or hold saying no as a growth strategy?

Seth Godin: Strong buy.

David Gardner: Why?

Seth Godin: Because no is a complete sentence. No lets you stop hiding. No puts you on the hook. No gives you the chance to become a meaningful specific instead of a wandering generality. I have never met anyone who yesed their way to where they wanted to go.

David Gardner: Brilliant. Next one up. We may have covered this one already, but let's go there again anyway. The word authentic in 2025, has it become inauthentic, buy, sell, or hold, authentic?

Seth Godin: Short. Sell. It's like, what a disaster.

David Gardner: Let's keep moving. AI tools in the creative process. A brainstorming partner or the beginning of creative complacency, buy, sell, or hold the AI creative tools.

Seth Godin: Well, what you just said is both of those sentences are true. That the same way typesetting shifted when we got desktop publishing. Some people use it to make the greatest type ever set, and some people made bank ransom notes. The same thing is going to happen here.

David Gardner: This next one comes via text beforehand, Andy Cross asking me, what does Seth, does he watch this TV show? We're about to find out. Buy, sell, or hold, Shark Tank as a lens on entrepreneurship?

Seth Godin: True story. Before they were on in the United States, the phone rang and they said, would I please audition to be the judge? I said, "What do you mean?" They said, "We want you to be the nasty, bald, possibly semitic judge." I said, "You got the wrong guy. I'm not going to show up there and scotch people's dreams."

David Gardner: Love it. Great answer. Next one up. The personal newsletter Renaissance, so from Substack to Buttondown, are curated, thoughtful emails, the new social media, buy, sell or hold?

Seth Godin: I'm buying the idea that anybody who wants to be a singular voice benefits from having this newsletter. I don't think email is the best way to deliver it, and I don't think that Substack is your friend in the long run, but I do think no matter how many people are reading it, if you can write and leave behind a legacy of work you are proud of, I'm up to 3.4 million words, that's a useful way for you to spend your time. Do not expect that it is going to come with prizes and cash, but it will build you the authority and consistency to stand for something, and it won't cost you anything.

David Gardner: Well said and hear-hear., Seth, how do you count those 3.4 million words? Is there a counter? How are you doing that?

Seth Godin: Every once in a while, I download the entire blog just in case something bad happens, and then there's something called word count because I don't keep track of any stats. I don't know how many people are reading it today. I don't have comments, but the incremental thing, about 10 years ago, I realized I had a streak, and so my blogs are queued up so even after I'm dead, there'll be new blogs coming out because I don't want this streak to end. It's just it's one of the only things that I've got right this minute that no one's ever going to catch up to, and I'm still going.

David Gardner: We love that about you, and I'm curious, Seth, do you find yourself attracted by streaks in other contexts in your life? Duolingo, for example, has this whole thing where if you start learning Spanish or Chinese, it's going to say come back tomorrow, and then it's going to start saying you've come back 57 days in a row, do you find yourself ever beholden to other streaks?

Seth Godin: Yeah, I have a lot of willpower, but Duolingo tried and failed, 40 days, my streak lasted, and I just couldn't do it. But this thing on my wrist, I'm up to 450 days. It got my health back after long COVID. It's not for everybody, but the idea that I'm going to break a 450 day streak, I'll hook it up to one of those goodwill cats or whatever. There's just no way this streak is ending.

David Gardner: Love it. For podcast listeners who can't see what you just did, Seth, what product did you just influence?

Seth Godin: Oh, there was one of those watches that keeps track of your fitness.

David Gardner: A couple more for you. I mean, I could do this all day. Buy, sell, or hold is so much fun and especially with Seth Godin. Seth, crowdsource governance, algorithmic leadership, phrases that are coming to mind, things we couldn't have imagined before, radical transparency or chaos in the C suite, buy, sell, or hold, public companies with no CEOs?

Seth Godin: There's not going to be public companies with no CEOs. But the idea of a Dow, a DAO, the idea of new sorts of institutions, that's inevitable, and it's going to be great if it's not run by a grifter or something that's part of an MLM scam. But that hasn't happened yet. But the idea that an entity can be true to what it said it was going to be true to and stick around for the long haul. I think that happens. Neal Stephenson wrote a book years ago that the whole idea that if you look at the longest lived institutions, they tend to be orders of monks, they tend to be places that have a constitution, a moat, and a way of governance that gives them consistency but flexibility. I think that we're going to see more of those, but they have no need to go public. Why would they?

David Gardner: Which Neal Stephenson book was that? I read The Diamond Age, but I don't think that was The Diamond Age.

Seth Godin: No, that wasn't. The Diamond Age and Snow Crash should be required reading for every single person. This was another one. I don't remember anything about it other than that it was tedious once I got the joke, so I didn't even finish it.

David Gardner: Let's go with this one. I think there are two more because I have a bonus one in mind. Andy, Mac Greer is going to make a toward the end of this hour together.

Andy Cross: He needs his comeback.

David Gardner: That's right. Here's my last official one. Seth Godin, buy, sell, or hold, branding yourself, are you with me here, as anti-hustle? Has rejecting the grind become the new grind? [laughs]

Seth Godin: What's Hustle? Hustle, in honor of Pete Rose, hustle is not the effort one puts into winning at hockey. Hustle is shortcuts and invading other people's space, throwing an elbow to the face and hoping you don't get caught, hustle is spamming people, hustle is asking a friend for something that they don't want to do for you and just piling up a whole bunch of favors. I am anti-hustle because you don't ever want to burn trust to earn attention. Trust is worth more than attention, and it's generative, and it lets you play the game for longer. There is this idea that shortcuts are possible and a grind is to be avoided. so the question is, is your grind additive or is it simply an endless treadmill? If you're on an endless treadmill where the grind isn't getting you anywhere, you're not in a dip, you're in a cul de sac. It's like emphysema. It's not going to get better. What you want is a grind that eventually is going to get you to the other side, and you want to do that grind without hurting the trust other people have in you. There are plenty of organizations that have done that, and we don't hear from them for a long time, and then suddenly they're an overnight success. Well, they're not an overnight success. You're just noticing them at the end.

David Gardner: Love it. "Trust is the coin of the realm." wrote dearly departed George Schultz in an excellent essay that is worthy of everyone's attention. Last one for you, Seth. He Googled you in preparation for today's interview and discovered on the Google overview page, check it, if you Google Seth Godin, it says, Seth Godin was born in George Washington's Mount Vernon, Mount Vernon, VA. My question, Seth is, that person is Mac Greer, buy sell or hold Mac Greer.

Seth Godin: Oh, I love Mac. We've never met, but I'm a fan. I have no idea how to fix the Internet. If you can get around to fixing it, please do. I never look at my Wikipedia page. It can make you go blind. If someone else wants to fix my Wikipedia page, please do.

David Gardner: Well said. Andy, last thought from both of us. I'll let you go first.

Andy Cross: Seth, thank you so much. This has been just brilliant. The only question, a topic I wanted to talk to you about because we focused so much on decision making at the Motley Fool for investors, is this concept of the lizard brain. I know we don't have much time, but I wanted to give you a chance to give us some guidance on how we can avoid being a lizard.

Seth Godin: Real science has said that maybe the amygdala isn't the lizard brain, and I'm not a neurologist. But what I would say is, please go read Steve Pressfield's book, The War of Art, and go read Annie Duke's book, Thinking in Bets.

Andy Cross: Yes.

Seth Godin: Before you spend $1 of your family's savings investing in anything, understand what those two people are telling you.

David Gardner: I want to thank Seth Godin for a very special hour here on Fool 24 and some podcast-worthy stuff that we'll be sharing throughout the fool world in the next week. Seth, I want to just say thank you, friend, and you always make me laugh, and you always make us think. Here's to the next 3.4 million words.

Seth Godin: Thank you both.

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Andy Cross has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Netflix, and Starbucks. David Gardner has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Duolingo, Netflix, Nike, Starbucks, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, International Business Machines, Microsoft, Netflix, Nike, Starbucks, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends Duolingo and Warby Parker and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

3 Reasons to Buy Walmart Stock Like There's No Tomorrow

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) is the largest company in the world by sales, and it's held on to that status tightly, even as tech stocks have surged and the world has gone digital. Although Amazon, the second-largest company, keeps getting closer, Walmart's simple retail model beats out everyone else.

This kind of strength is something every investor should have in their portfolios, and Walmart is an excellent candidate. Here are three reasons to buy it today.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

A Walmart associate in a store.

Image source: Walmart.

1. It's safe

When the market is uncertain, it's the safe, established stocks that can tide your portfolio over. Investors have been pouring into Walmart stock, and it's crushed many growth stocks and the market itself over the past year as it's gained 47%.

Walmart's sheer size gives it an edge over its competitors. It has more than 10,500 global locations, including 4,600 in the U.S. alone. It's a discount retailer, so it appeals to customers at all times, but even more so when the economy is under pressure. It has tremendous leverage with suppliers, allowing it to play with price and change its supply chain when necessary.

Management said that with the new tariffs, it would have to raise some prices. But the company's exposure is limited, as most of its high-moving products are everyday essentials that it can easily keep flowing, with two-thirds of its product assortment already made in the U.S., and because it's a global company. In any case, Walmart has many levers to pull to offset the impact of new tariffs, such as shifting production to different regions and changing the materials it uses. Again, due to its scale and leverage, it can have suppliers make these changes.

It's also benefiting from some of its new businesses, such as a Prime-style membership program and advertising, which are high-margin and can make up some of the higher costs.

2. It's growing

Walmart has $685 billion in trailing-12-month sales, yet it still manages to report year-over-year growth consistently. Sales increased 4% (currency neutral) in the fiscal 2026 first quarter (ended April 30), and management expects sales to increase 3% to 4% for the full year as well.

The company constantly finds new ways to upgrade and boost sales. It recently launched a new line of premium products to attract a more upscale consumer, and it's still opening new stores. The advertising business, including the recently acquired Vizio ad-supported streaming, increased 50% year over year in the first quarter. This is an exciting new venture. Membership is also adding value, and membership fee income increased by 15% over this quarter last year.

One of its most compelling growth drivers lately has been e-commerce. Walmart was a bit behind the curve when e-commerce first exploded, losing significant ground to Amazon. But it's invested in its digital channels over the past few years and has a formidable program, including an edge over Amazon in using its thousands of stores for distribution and order fulfillment.

E-commerce sales increased 22% year over year in the first quarter, with a 21% increase in the U.S. and a 27% increase for the Sam's Club stores. Sam's Club represents its own opportunity as it continues to open stores across the globe.

3. It's reliable for passive income

Finally, Walmart is a Dividend King. That's an exclusive status given to stocks that have raised their dividends annually for at least 50 years, implying a rock-solid dividend and a growing check. Walmart has raised its dividend under all kinds of circumstances for the past 53 years, providing reliable passive income for retirees and other shareholders who count on it.

Walmart's 0.9% (at the current price) dividend isn't high-yielding. Its other qualities, though, are very attractive.

As the market continues to experience uncertainty, with no one knowing what lies ahead, Walmart stock can bolster your portfolio and create long-term shareholder value.

Should you invest $1,000 in Walmart right now?

Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $669,517!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $868,615!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 792% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 173% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Jennifer Saibil has positions in Walmart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Where Will Walmart Stock Be in 3 Years?

When most investors are thinking about buying a particular stock, they'll start by looking at the underlying company's recent fiscal results. And to be fair, it's a sound approach. Although past performance is no guarantee of future results, that past gives us a reasonably good idea of what the future likely holds.

Still, sometimes we need to dig deeper and examine the qualitative things a company is doing that could alter its quantitative future.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

With that as the backdrop, although there's not much unpredictability with its business, Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and its stock are apt to be somewhere pleasantly surprising in the next three years. Here's why.

Meet the new-and-improving Walmart

Walmart is the world's biggest brick-and-mortar retailer, with 90% of U.S. residents living within 10 miles of one of its 4,600 domestic namesake stores, or one of its 600 Sam's Club warehouses. There are almost 5,600 other locations outside of the United States as well.

Last year this giant of a company did $681 billion worth of business, turning $19.4 billion of that into after-tax net income, and extending long-standing (even if occasionally bent and sometimes slow) growth trends. And yes, those numbers confirm the retailer continues to dominate at least North America's general merchandise and grocery retailing landscapes.

A woman shopping for groceries in a Walmart store.

Image source: Getty Images.

But the Walmart of yesteryear -- and even the Walmart of today -- isn't quite the Walmart you can expect come 2028. There are several initiatives underway right now that should be measurably more mature three years from now, each of which could make a positive impact on its top and bottom lines.

One of these initiatives is its nascent online advertising business.

If you ever shop at Walmart.com then you've seen advertisements, probably without even giving it a second thought. Every website runs ads these days, after all.

Except, Walmart isn't simply hoping to prompt you into making a purchase of something it's selling. Brands are paying Walmart to promote their particular goods online with these ads. The retailer did $4.4 billion worth of this high-margin advertising business, in fact, up 27% year over year, and bolstering the bottom line for an e-commerce platform Walmart was going to operate anyway. This still only scratches the surface of the opportunity, though. With an ever-growing amount of insight as to what works and what doesn't, this advertising revenue's growth accelerated to a pace of 31% year over year during the first quarter of this year.

While it's not clear exactly where the ceiling is for this business, eMarketer expects average annualized growth of 17.2% for the United States' entire retail media (digital advertising at retailers' e-commerce sites) business. That outlook bodes very well for Walmart.com's long-term ad business growth.

The mega-retailer isn't just looking to the U.S. as a growth engine, however. Indeed, Walmart seemingly understands that it's running out of places within the United States to establish profitable brick-and-mortar stores, having closed 11 of them last year. There's opportunity abroad, and the company is capitalizing on it more than you might realize. In 2023, management announced its goal to grow its international revenue from around $100 billion per year then to $200 billion annually by 2028. After last year's reported tally of $121.9 billion, that target doesn't seem so crazy after all.

Finally, while most investors can acknowledge Walmart has done the unthinkable by building a respectably sized e-commerce business in a market that's dominated by Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), they may be underestimating just how well it's doing online. Although the company itself doesn't disclose the specifics, consensus numbers provided by Statista suggest Walmart's worldwide annual online sales have soared from around $25 billion in 2019 to roughly $100 million last year.

That's still only a drop in the bucket, to be clear. Even within the all-important U.S, market, Walmart's 10.6% share of the e-commerce market is a distant second to Amazon's 39.7%, according to data compiled by industry research outfit Digital Commerce 360.

It's worth noting, however, that Walmart's share of the domestic online shopping market has more than doubled since 2017, while Amazon's share has barely budged. Clearly the company is doing something right.

And remember that each of these initiatives is still a work in progress. We're not yet seeing these efforts working at their eventual, refined best.

But tariffs? Arguably more bark than bite. The longer the standoff lingers, the clearer it becomes that President Donald Trump is posturing as a negotiation tactic. He wants trade to flow as freely as much as anyone.

What it means for revenue, earnings, and Walmart stock

So what does it mean for investors? It means don't be surprised if Walmart outperforms expectations over the course of the coming three years.

As of the latest look, the analyst community is calling for full-year revenue of $766 billion for the 12-month stretch ending in 2027. Extrapolating that annualized growth rate of 4% would put calendar 2028's top line in the ballpark of just under $800 billion. Using the same projection math, per-share earnings should swell from last year's $2.41 to roughly $3.60 for the same time frame. Not bad.

Just bear in mind that analysts could be underestimating Walmart's potential upside just as much as average individual investors are. Walmart's yearly sales growth rate has easily exceeded 6% in most years since 2021, and that's without all the growth weapons the company is successfully wielding now.

As for the stock, assuming its current earnings-based valuation of around 42 times its trailing per-share profits, Walmart stock could be priced around $144 three years from now. That's a 47% gain, or an average annualized improvement of roughly 15%.

Just don't get so enamored by the numbers that you look past the bigger and better reason to own a piece of this company (or any other). That is, Walmart is doing a lot of things right, leveraging its strengths while creating new ones. When an organization does that, everything else including progress from its stock tends to fall in line.

Should you invest $1,000 in Walmart right now?

Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $669,517!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $868,615!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 792% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 173% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why Is Everyone Talking About Walmart Stock?

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) is generating buzz in the investor community due to its success in e-commerce.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of May 25, 2025. The video was published on May 27, 2025.

Should you invest $1,000 in Walmart right now?

Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $653,389!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $830,492!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 982% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 171% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.

Walmart Is Beating Amazon at Its Own Game

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) is encroaching on Amazon's (NASDAQ: AMZN) turf and winning the battle.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of May 24, 2025. The video was published on May 26, 2025.

Should you invest $1,000 in Walmart right now?

Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $653,389!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $830,492!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 982% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 171% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool.

Tariff Turmoil: Is Walmart's Stock Set to Slide?

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) easily beat Wall Street's first-quarter earnings estimates. But it didn't matter. The big story in the world's largest retailer's Q1 update was the impact of the Trump administration's tariffs. And that story wasn't great for investors or American consumers.

Walmart is usually viewed as a stock that's resilient during times of economic uncertainty. However, the tariff turmoil raises the question: Is Walmart's share price set to slide?

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

Walmart sign.

Image source: Walmart.

Walmart's warning

Many investors celebrated the agreement between the U.S. and China to relax trade tensions at least temporarily. Walmart's executives expressed some relief as well in the company's Q1 earnings call. CEO C. Douglas McMillon thanked President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for lowering tariffs on Chinese imports.

Despite the improvement, though, 30% tariffs will remain in place on Chinese products. McMillon said that Walmart won't be able to absorb all the price increases resulting from the tariffs even at reduced levels.

CFO John David Rainey stated that Walmart thinks the tariffs are still "too high." He added that the prices for some products "are likely going to go up, and that's not good for consumers."

What hurts American consumers could also hurt Walmart. The really bad scenario is if the Trump administration puts the previous steep tariffs back into place. Rainey warned, "[I]f we see a restoration of dramatically high tariff levels, the impact on our financials could be significant and even jeopardize our ability to grow earnings year over year."

Chinese tariffs present the most significant challenge for Walmart, but they're not the only concern for the company. The retailer purchases products from countries around the world that now have tariffs levied on their products, notably including Canada, India, Mexico, and Vietnam. McMillon said in the Q1 earnings call, "The cost pressure from all the tariff-impacted markets started in late April, and it accelerated in May."

What can the giant retailer do?

More than two-thirds of products Walmart sells in the U.S. are made (or, in the case of some foods, grown) domestically. But while the company continues to increase the volume of products sourced in the U.S., it won't be able to reduce imports rapidly. So what can the giant retailer do to reduce the negative impact of the Trump administration's tariffs on its business?

McMillon noted that Walmart is working with suppliers to shift "from tariff-impacted components like aluminum to fiberglass, where there is no tariff." He added, "Our merchants, sourcing team, and suppliers are being creative."

Walmart is also prepared to pass along higher costs to consumers on some products. McMillon acknowledged, "[E]ven at the reduced levels, the higher tariffs will result in higher prices." Could this slow the company's sales growth? Perhaps.

However, Walmart will absorb some tariff-related price increases. McMillon thinks the retailer has some capacity to do so as a result of its diversification of profit streams. He said, "[W]e're positioned to manage the cost pressure from tariffs as well or better than anyone."

A two-part prediction

Is Walmart stock likely to tumble because of tariffs? My prediction is: both yes and no.

Short term, I suspect the negative impacts of tariffs could put pressure on Walmart's share price. Rainey was undoubtedly correct in stating, "[W]e're not fully immune from the financial impacts in the short term."

But McMillon expressed optimism in the Q1 call, saying, "We've been operating in challenging environments for years now, and we'll come through this one stronger than ever, just as we have before." Rainey noted, "We've seen during periods of economic uncertainty in the past, we tend to gain share and come out of the other side in an even stronger position. We expect this period to be no different."

I think they're both right. While Walmart's shares could be volatile over the short term as a result of the tariff-related uncertainty, it remains a solid pick for long-term investors, in my view.

Should you invest $1,000 in Walmart right now?

Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $635,275!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $826,385!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 967% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 171% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 12, 2025

Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why Walmart Stock Topped the Market Today

The market wasn't so hot on Walmart (NYSE: WMT) stock on Thursday following the company's latest quarterly-earnings release, but sentiment changed the following day. Thanks in no small part to a clutch of positive analyst updates on the company, investors snapped up Walmart again, sending it to a 3% gain on the day. With that performance, it eclipsed the 0.7% increase of the S&P 500 index.

Delayed praise

As a titan in the U.S. retail sector, Walmart is closely tracked by a platoon of stock analysts. More than a few of them weighed in on the company with updates, the bulk of which had quite the bullish tone. Several even raised their price target on the shares.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

Person shopping in a grocery store aisle.

Image source: Getty Images.

One of the raisers was Truist Securities's Scot Ciccarelli, who bumped his fair value assessment on the stock to $111 per share from his preceding $107. He also maintained his buy recommendation. According to reports, the pundit felt that Walmart's opening quarter of its fiscal 2026 was a strong one, especially with its nearly 5% increase in U.S. same-store sales.

He also flagged the company's reiteration of its full-year guidance despite concerns about the effect of tariffs on its fundamentals.

Thinking about tariffs

Tariffs were the key reason why Walmart's stock slumped in the immediate aftermath of the earnings release.

While I feel that investors are right to be concerned about the almost-certain detrimental effect on company finances, in the long term this company is one of the best buys in the retail sector. Management consistently proves it can grow the business -- as strongly evidenced by that nice lift in same-store sales. Even in a worst-case tariff scenario, it should find a way to thrive.

Should you invest $1,000 in Walmart right now?

Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $635,275!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $826,385!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 967% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 171% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 12, 2025

Eric Volkman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Fox Corp. Readies Fox One Streaming Service

In this podcast, Motley Fool analyst Jason Moser and host Dylan Lewis discuss:

  • The U.S. and China's short-term trade truce, and why there's some hope that a more permanent deal will be struck.
  • Fox's next step into streaming with Fox One, its existing Tubi footprint, and success in video advertising.

GoDaddy is known for its commercials, less known for its capital allocation strategy. GoDaddy CFO Mark McCaffrey walks Motley Fool host Ricky Mulvey through the company's philosophy on share buybacks.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. When you're ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy.

A full transcript is below.

Should you invest $1,000 in GoDaddy right now?

Before you buy stock in GoDaddy, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and GoDaddy wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $635,275!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $826,385!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 967% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 171% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 12, 2025

This podcast was recorded on May 11, 2025

Advertisement...

Dylan Lewis: Set the time machine for a few weeks back. Motley Fool Money starts now. I'm Dylan Lewis and I'm joined over the airwaves by Motley Fool analyst Jason Moser. Jason, thanks for joining me.

Jason Moser: Happy to be here, Dylan. Thanks for having me.

Dylan Lewis: On this bright and sunny day for the market. S&P 500 up a little over 2%, Nasdaq up, the Dow Jones up, everybody up on reports of the US-China trade deal. I've seen this called tariff cuts, Jason. I've also seen it called temporary trade truce. The market's excited about it. What are you calling it?

Jason Moser: I definitely understand the excitement. Yes, bright and sunny day in the market. It's bright and sunny day here in Northern Virginia, and hey, happy belated Mother's Day to all of the mothers out there. What a tremendous Sunday. We had a great time here, and I hope everyone else did too.

We woke up to a great headline, of course, the market responding obviously very positively to it. I think that goes back to what we have been talking about for the last couple of months, is just day by day, you just don't know really what is going to happen. This is a very headline-driven market, and for as bad as things may seem one day, you just don't know the next day they could turn on a dime, and it seems like today we hit that turn on dime status. I think it's worth remembering, this is a temporary solution. This is not something that is locked in in a full-on deal, but it does seem at least like there is some progress in diplomacy and talks. Perhaps the UK deal that was announced late last week, is a bit of a catalyst here. Maybe that's a sign of good things to come. We will have to wait and see.

But I think a lot of what we've been discussing in regard to tariffs and trade talks, most of this is really centered around ultimately China. China is the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, as they would say. This is where we really need to figure this deal out because when you talk about trade deficits, and there are positives and negatives that come with all of that. But in regard to China, specifically, we've become very dependent on China through the years. When you think about the relationship we've had with China through the years, going all the way back to the 1970s when we really started diplomatically working together, over time, we've seen this trade deficit, where we're importing more than we're exporting. This trade deficit has just continued to grow.

You look at the 2000s. Around 2000, that trade deficit had reached around $85 billion. From there, it just continued to grow. It hit a peak of close to $420 billion in 2018. Today, it's closer to around $300 billion. But the goal, I think, here, is to try to balance that relationship out. Hopefully, this is a sign of good things to come. Again, it's one headline. We don't know a lot. There are not a lot of specifics, but it does seem like progress is at least being made.

Dylan Lewis: If you're like me, you've probably had a hard time following where we are relative to where we've started with a lot of these escalations. From the reading and from some of the reporting out there, it seems like this essentially resets to where we were with the US and China relations in late March. Initial tariffs announced by the Trump administration, retaliations on both sides. You were on the show last week with our colleague Ricky Mulvey, talking about how the S&P 500 had essentially retraced the Liberation Day losses. In terms of macro mentality, are we basically looking at 90-day amnesia here, where we lost some time, but we wound up back in the same place?

Jason Moser: When we look at the numbers, it's just been such a boring year. The market is essentially flat. Ho-hum, who cares? This has just been a really bumpy ride, going back to, you remember how this all started? This was what? The late February, early March, where the conversation really centered around Canada and China in certain trade negotiations there, but also fentanyl stuff and border stuff. Then it expanded very quickly to it seemed like virtually every country on the face of the planet, which is, I know, something like 180, 190 countries. It does feel like we are back to where we started. It's nice to see at least some progress being made. Go back to that UK trade deal. Hopefully, that is a sign of things to come.

We know that countries are coming to the table and want to negotiate. But again, given our relationship with China, and to an extent, our reliance on China, I think China is really seen as the most important of all of these deals. Again, time will tell there. Again, this is not a permanent solution. This is just something that it's extending the timeline. It's indicating that, hey, conversations are being had, because if you think about it, this tit for tat just doesn't work. Hey, I say 175% tariffs. Well, hey, I'll say 185%. Well, I'm going to go 195. It can just go up and up and up and nobody ends up benefiting. We certainly know that China's economy is suffering from this. But we also know that our economy will suffer from this as well. Particularly as we get closer to the holiday season, if you start seeing supply dwindle and consumers aren't able to get what they want, there are going to be real problems. There will be political ramifications that come from that, as well. It's good to see progress being made. I certainly would not look at this as a solution, but it seems like at least a step in the right direction.

Dylan Lewis: Your dogs seem to agree there, Jason.

Jason Moser: They do. They're big fans of diplomacy, Dylan.

Dylan Lewis: As we noted, good day for the market. Even better day for companies that are in the business of buying and selling, and really, anybody in retail, anybody with international supply chains. As you noted, this is a reset, but a reprieve as well. Not a full solution. Any wise words for investors seeing some major moves with their stocks today?

Jason Moser: I think it's great. We always love to see our portfolios in the green or the black, however you want to put it. But it's always nice to see positive as opposed to negative. I think it's really interesting to see the companies that are reacting most strongly to these results. Look at some of these companies that stand out, Wayfair, for example, have better than 20%, totally understandable. They really depend on the supply chain centered around China. Shopify, again, we've talked about that before, plenty of small and medium-sized businesses that do not fare well during these heavy tariff times, all the way down the line there. Amazon doing well, Nike doing well. I think it's nice to see those companies at least starting to recover a little bit from these lows. Again, I think this reiterates why we invest the way we do here. It is so if you tried to time your way in and out of this stuff, I can't imagine that many people would have been very successful. Continuing to invest regularly, staying invested, that is something we just need to reiterate to people because that is really, truly, that's the solution to long-term wealth creation.

Dylan Lewis: We may get some more commentary on the big picture here when we see Walmart and some of the Chinese companies like Alibaba report later in the week, fairly big earnings week, and Fox got started. They're out with earnings this week, and they also had an announcement that their upcoming streaming service, Fox One, will be launching before the upcoming football season, which I can't imagine is an accident. I imagine that's quite intentional. This is something we've been looking forward to for a while, Jason. There's a history of legacy media companies getting streaming services right. There's a history of legacy media companies getting streaming services wrong. I think CNN+ lasted for about a month. What are you thinking about as you see Fox stepping up to the competition here?

Jason Moser: I think it's noteworthy to acknowledge that Fox is looking at this streaming service as something where they want to attract the cord cutter. There's two sides of the coin here, in that we've got folks who are still very happy cable subscribers, and we were looking at it countrywide. There's still plenty of cable subscribers out there. Now, we know the trend is toward cord-cutting, but Fox wants to make sure to offer something for everyone. If, for example, you are a cable subscriber and you get your Fox channels, well, then it sounds like you're going to get access to this Fox One streaming service as well. If you're a cord cutter and you don't really want to participate in the cable network, well, then you have the opportunity to go ahead and subscribe to this Fox streaming service. It's important to note, I think this Fox streaming service is going to be all of the properties. It's not just Fox News. It's the stand-alone Fox channel. It's all of the Fox Sports channel. It's everything that comes within that Fox portfolio.

Let's be clear. It's a very popular portfolio. It garners a lot of viewers, and I think that really matters. You referred back to that NFL relationship there, and that is obviously a very big driver come August when we start talking about preseason and getting into September with the regular season games. NFL is just big business. We know that, and Fox benefits greatly from that. I think we don't really know exactly what pricing is going to look like for this service yet, but it does sound like at least they are not looking for some type of discount or low cost price point, something like, think about Disney when they introduced Disney Plus, for example, and I think they started that out at 599 or 699 per month. I don't think that's what this is going to be. It's going to be something that's a little bit more reflective of the value that they feel like they're returning to all of their viewers. But all things considered, I think this makes sense. It's going to be something that I think helps expand their viewership and gives everybody a chance to participate in that Fox portfolio, how they want, whether they're cable subscribers or whether they are cord cutters that really just want to find access to the best content.

Dylan Lewis: One thing that might bolster some market confidence here in what Fox is able to do, this is not their first horse in the streaming race. They already own Tubi, which is a free ad-supported streaming service. A sleeper in the streaming space in a lot of ways, but at a critical mass. I think with what they saw for Super Bowl editions, they are probably over 100 million monthly active users at this point. It's not a profitable operation for them yet, but they've done over a billion dollars in trailing 12-month revenue. There is some track record of success here, and I think crucially, Jason, there's success in connecting with advertisers and working that ad-supported model. That really seems to be the future of where a lot of this industry is going.

Jason Moser: Well, we've talked about this a lot in regard to ad-supported video-on-demand. This is a massive market opportunity worldwide. I think when you get outside of the US and you get to economies that are a little bit more cost-sensitive, it makes even more sense. But when you look at revenue in the advertising video-on-demand supported market right there, worldwide, it's projected to reach around $55 billion in 2025. That's only going to continue to grow. For me, it makes a lot of sense that they continue to pursue this. It's just interesting that, I don't know about you, it's not top of mind for me. I'm not the biggest Tubi user. I know we have the app on our TV, and I guess we use it every once in a while if we're searching for content. But again, you mentioned this massive base of user, closing in on 100 million monthly active users. They saw in the quarter, their total revenue is up 27%. Fox's total revenue is up 27% for the quarter. Advertising revenue increased 65%, and that primarily was due to the impact of Tubi. They saw tremendous benefit there from the Super Bowl. I think that's something that is slated to continue. For me, it makes sense that they continue to invest in this business because not only do they benefit from this portfolio of central Fox offerings that they have, but then they've got these other little ancillary properties that they just continue to invest in and they fly under the radar.

But obviously, it's working out very well for the company. I think it's worth noting, you look at Amazon, for example, Amazon making a lot of investments in their Freevee offering, which is something essentially, you're going to get Amazon Freevee if you just have Amazon at all, if you're a Prime member. However your relationship is with Amazon, you're going to have access to Freevee. Amazon clearly sees an opportunity there as well. Again, I think, going back to those growth numbers in the AVOD market there, it's nice to see that Fox continues to invest in this business because it's obviously working out for them.

Dylan Lewis: Fox is not a name that we talk about all that often and to our detriment. Shares up almost 60% over the last 12 months. I was glad that we had the opportunity to check in on it because it's one that not a lot of folks have been paying attention to. Stock basically set new all time highs earlier this year, not too far off those levels now. It seems like advertising is a big part of the recent run. If this is getting onto people's radar at all, anything else you pay attention to?

Jason Moser: I think just continue to pay attention to the overall advertising revenue. The ratings that Fox brings in, I think we all know. Fox does pretty well with all of its properties. I think they really benefited tremendously from this most recent election cycle. They noted in the call from last call that on election night, they saw over 13-and-half million viewers tuning in, and then I think they said Fox News Channel had grown. It become the most watched cable network in total day and prime time in that space, growing total day audience by nearly 40%, and then their prime time audience by 45% year over year. It's not just Fox News. We go back to the NFL relationship in all of the different ways they can really win. It's not just Fox News. It's Fox Sports. It's Fox News. It's the stand-alone Fox offering there. They do have a lot of different ways they can win with their media properties. At the end of the day, it does boil down to ratings and as it stands right now, Fox continues to bring in strong ratings across all of its properties. That would be a very encouraging thing for investors looking to maybe get some exposure to the entertainment space.

Dylan Lewis: Jason Moser, thanks for joining me today.

Jason Moser: Thank you.

Dylan Lewis: Hey, Fools, we're taking a quick break for a word from our sponsor for today's episode.

Real estate. It's been the cornerstone of wealth building for generations, but it's also often been a major headache for investors, with 3:00 AM maintenance calls, tenant disputes, and property taxes. Enter Fundrise's flagship fund, a $1.1 billion real estate portfolio, with more than 4,000 single-family homes in the Sun Belt communities, 3.3 million square feet of in-demand industrial facilities, all professionally managed by an experienced team. The flagship fund taps into some of real estate's most attractive qualities, long-term appreciation potential, a hedge against inflation, and diversification beyond the stock market. Check, check, and check. All without the complex paperwork, massive down payments, and soul-sucking landlord duties. Visit fundrise.com/fool to explore the portfolio, check out historical returns, and see just how much easier investing in real estate can be. Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Fundrise Flagship Fund before investing. This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at fundrise.com/flagship. This is a paid advertisement.

Listeners, coming up on the show, you may know GoDaddy for its commercials, but you probably don't know its capital allocation story. One that's made the stock a market beater. My colleague Ricky Mulvey caught up with GoDaddy's CFO, Mark McCaffrey, for an interview about the company's growth engine and philosophy on share buybacks.

Ricky Mulvey: A lot of our listeners may know GoDaddy as a domain registration business. They may not know GoDaddy as a long-term market outperformer, which I want to get into. We'll focus on the quarterly results, though, because right now, the growth engine and about a third of your revenue is coming from this applications in commerce business. This is not just registering websites. That's where you're getting 17% sales growth. For our listeners who just know GoDaddy is a spot where you're buying websites, what should they understand about the applications in commerce business?

Mark McCaffrey: Absolutely. It's a great question. We've become so much more than just being a domain company over the years. We just hit our 10-year anniversary of being a public company. We've been around 28 years. We've become a one-stop shop for micro businesses that provide them the IT services for them to be effective, them to be efficient, them to compete on a much broader scale. We're talking the mom and pop shops. I always refer to them the underdogs. They are doing what they love. They are passionate about what they do. They want to do it broader. They want to connect to more customers. They may not be IT savvy. We provide them, I sometimes refer to it as the operating systems for the micro businesses. That's what our application and commerce segment represents. Our core platform was the traditional domain part of our business, but this is the software that gets attached.

It's more often than not a website or an email or commerce capabilities. But it represents a second and third and fourth product attached that makes our customers successful. Because it's proprietary software and some third-party software, but proprietary software, it comes at a much higher profit margin for us and therefore has been our growth engine. It has become a bigger and bigger part of the business.

Ricky Mulvey: We've been talking on the show about how very large companies are using artificial intelligence, Microsoft building up with OpenAI. Palantir getting inserted into every government and any company they can find. You're at a micro level with very small businesses in helping them use AI to build and grow their businesses. At a very broad level, how do you see AI impacting small business creation in the US right now?

Mark McCaffrey: When you think about it, and again, when we say micro businesses, we're probably smaller than the small businesses others refer to. They don't think about AI as to, oh, my God, I want to use AI, but they want to have help. They don't want to hire necessarily more employees. But yet, for example, they have to respond across multiple different social media platforms to inbounds, and our tools do that automatically. They write in their voice. They allow them to be in multiple places at multiple times. I was just meeting with, I call them the pizza guys, but they're two guys who run a mobile pizza oven, and between putting a pizza in for 90 seconds, they're on our conversations tool just clicking Send to make sure that they're setting up their next gig. That's the type of customer we want. They don't sit there and think about, oh, my God, I'm using AI. They're sitting there going, oh, my God, this just works better. That is the customer we want. That's what our product does, Airo, A-I-R-O, just for the record. It allows our customers using AI to respond more effectively and more efficiently within their customer base to grow. It works because we have so much data around it.

Ricky Mulvey: This is a zone where Shopify also plays. We talk about Shopify a lot on the show. What's the differentiation of Airo? If I'm a micro business, if I'm starting my own pizza business with my brother, why would I do it on GoDaddy's platform instead of Shopify?

Mark McCaffrey: Number 1, it's a seamless experience for us. You come to one place and you're able to get all the functionality. Number 2, the cost effectiveness of it. We do it at such a good price point for the value our customers are getting. It allows them to start up, be more successful, and quite frankly, manage across one application. When you think about it, we're the only company in the world that has the technology stack all the way from the domain to the transaction. Because we can combine that into one seamless experience with them, they don't have to manage eight apps. They manage one app, and when they need help, they go to our care organization, and our care organization is designed to work with this customer base, work with the micro business. This is what they do best and why they're so effective. Between the technology itself and our ability to guide them through all of this, I always say, you can be up and running with a business in 15 minutes. I get corrected by my internal people to say, no, actually, we can do it in three minutes. Can you stop saying it takes so long. But you can get everything you need almost instantaneously bundled together as a great price, be up and running with website, transactions, professional email, and a domain, and you can be getting all your traffic across multiple social media platforms. That's what we offer. It's simple. It's easy. It's easy to use, and it's easy to maintain.

Ricky Mulvey: One of the reasons I'm happy to have you on the show is that GoDaddy has a very interesting capital allocation story. There's a long-term outperformance for your stock since GoDaddy IPOed. But 2023 is when a lot of that performance came, and that's in line with when you started a stock repurchase authorization program. Since 2022, GoDaddy bought back four billion dollars worth of stock. I don't want to dismiss the growth in the actual business, but there's a capital allocation story here that's important for shareholders. As CFO, you've really focused on share buybacks. You've got another three billion dollar authorization plan moving forward for the next few years. But just conceptually you've got a lot of options at your disposal. You can buy back stock. You can pay a regular dividend. You can pay a special dividend. Why stick with the buyback so much?

Mark McCaffrey: I'll start with the underlying premise that we think investing in our own stock is one of the most attractive returns we have out there. We've shown that we've been able to execute on this buyback strategy very effectively. Thank you for pointing out. We've done it over four years, four billion dollars. Not many companies have reduced their fully diluted share account by 25% over a period of time such as this. We're very proud of that, and we're very proud to not only share the success we've had, obviously, we generate a lot of free cash flow that allows us to have these options, but also return that value back to our shareholders and do it in a manner that we continue to, I would say, create this great model. I'll even take it a step further, how many companies out there today are growing 6-8%, have expanded their normalized EBITDA margins by 900 basis points in five years, and then bought back 25% of their fully diluted shares over a similar period of time and still are able to compound to free cash flow per share on a CAGR of 20%. That whole model works together for us fantastically. It's durable. It's resilient, and we continue to put it forward because it works, and our investors keep giving us the feedback. They really like the program. They really like how we do this, and they want us to continue doing this.

Ricky Mulvey: Since GoDaddy's IPO 10 years ago, I mentioned this at the top, it's been a quiet market beater, and a lot of that performance has come within the past few years, so I don't want to dismiss that. But when you look at the overall results, the S&P 500 compound annual growth rate of about 12%, the Nasdaq about 16%, and GoDaddy at 25%, smashing the return of the S&P 500. When you look back on 10 years as a public company, any reflections on the outperformance or maybe what's been the recipe for that at GoDaddy?

Mark McCaffrey: The recipe is focusing on what we call our North Star and making sure that everything we do is in honor of that North Star. We call our North Star free cash flow per share. We generate free cash flow, whether it's growth, whether it's profitability. We're always looking to do that in a way to maximize that equation, understanding that our model is durable, it's predictable, and we can use the levers to make sure we continue to compound into that equation and drive that value. As we've done that, as we've grown as a company, as we've hit this milestone, because we are a very large tech company, we know that hey, 90% of our revenue starts with our existing customer base. We know we have great products and innovation that bring people into our funnel. We know this model compounds on itself year after year as our customer retention rates get stronger. That compounding free cash flow is what creates the value within the business itself, and that's the same value we can use to return to our shareholders.

I would say the model works. Our execution of our strategy works. Our model works behind it, and it's about the compounding effect of layering on every year just to be a little bit better and to grow based on these metrics that just continue to generate cash flow. I would also say, three years ago, we took an effort to really simplify our infrastructure so that our operating leverage just supported this going forward. We're growing revenue at over two times. We're growing our operating expenses right now. That allows us to be so efficient in how we do things. When we're efficient, we can do what we do best, which is focus on our customers. Again, it all holds together, but it all compounds on each other. The balance sheet gets stronger. We're able to generate free cash flow. We're able to look at the options for capital allocation, and it puts us in a great spot going forward.

Ricky Mulvey: Good place, send it. Mark McCaffrey. That is the chief financial officer of GoDaddy. Appreciate your time and your insight. Thanks for joining us on Motley Fool Money.

Mark McCaffrey: Thanks, Ricky. Thanks for having me.

Dylan Lewis: As always, people in the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about, and Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy sell anything based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards. It's not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure. Please check out our show notes. For the Motley Fool Money team, I'm Dylan Lewis. We'll be back tomorrow.

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Dylan Lewis has positions in Shopify. Jason Moser has positions in Amazon, Shopify, and Wayfair. Ricky Mulvey has positions in Shopify. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir Technologies, Shopify, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends Alibaba Group, GoDaddy, and Wayfair and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Dollar General and Dollar Tree Are Both Dollar Stores, but They're Actually Very Different. Here's What That Means for Investors.

At first sight, the two discount store chains appear similar enough. Sure, Dollar Tree's (NASDAQ: DLTR) distinguishing feature is a retail price point of $1.25 for at least most of its merchandise. It and Dollar General (NYSE: DG) are still both categorized as dollar stores, however, and certainly compete with one another for consumers' dollars.

These two companies are actually quite different from one another, though, so much so that their stocks aren't likely to move in tandem for the long haul. Here's what investors need to know.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

The aisle of a store.

Image source: Getty Images.

Not the same

Dollar General is still the titan of the business, operating 20,594 total stores peppered across most of the United States. Some of those are more experimental stores called pOpshelf, but by and large these locales operate under the Dollar General banner. This company did $40.6 billion worth of business last year, selling goods at a typical range of price points you'd expect from a discounter.

Dollar Tree's structure is different. It's actually the combination of 8,881 Dollar Tree stores and 7,622 Family Dollar stores, although the entirety of the latter chain is soon going to be sold to a private equity outfit. While this sale will essentially cut Dollar Tree's physical footprint in half, the remainder may be better off with this severing. The pairing never achieved the synergies investors were hoping it would when it was first formed back in 2015. The two separate units ended up operating quite independently of one another, with the Family Dollar arm simply devolving into dead weight that couldn't quite compete with more than a little head-to-head rivalry like Dollar General, but also outfits like Ollie's and Big Lots.

Still, the Dollar Tree brand itself enjoys enough scale -- $17.6 billion in sales last fiscal year -- and enough presence so that its eventual smaller size won't prevent it from effectively competing with Dollar General.

Nevertheless, there are differences investors will want to keep in mind.

Comparing and contrasting Dollar General and Dollar Tree

Giving credit where it's due, consumer market research outfit Numerator dug up most of the data on the table below, while the two companies themselves supplied the rest. Take a look, noting that Numerator's numbers for Dollar Tree only apply to Dollar Tree, and do not reflect Family Dollar's presence in the marketplace. (Dollar Tree's sales mix data at the bottom of the table, however, comes from these two companies themselves, and does include Family Dollar's portion of Dollar Tree's total sales.)

Metric Dollar General Dollar Tree
Locations
Rural 42% 30%
Suburb 38% 38%
Urban 19% 32%
Demographics
Lower income (<$40K) 27% 26%
Middle income ($40K-$125K) 49% 48%
Higher Income (>$125K) 24% 26%
Penetration/Reach
Average annual spend $522 $290
Household penetration 60% 79%
Purchase frequency (annual) 20x 27x
Repeat rate 85% 80%
Sales mix
Consumables 82.7% 48.8%
Discretionary (seasonal, home, etc.) 17.3% 51.2%

Sales-mix data comes from each respective company. All other data provided by Numerator.

Much of this was already known, or at least broadly understood. Dollar General, for instance, has frequently touted the fact that roughly three-fourths of its stores are found in towns with populations of less than 20,000. According to Numerator, rural customers, despite shopping less often, contribute significantly due to higher spending per trip.

It's also arguable that Numerator's income breakdown understates just how many lower-income consumers depend on Dollar General. With above-average exposure to rural markets where incomes tend to be less than what they are in more urban settings, Dollar General's average customer lives in households with annual incomes believed to be right around the $40,000-per-year threshold Numerator is using at the low end of its middle range.

Perhaps the most eye-opening data point here, however, is how much consumables (food, cleaning supplies, etc.) Dollar General sells as opposed to Dollar Tree. More than 80% of Dollar General's sales are consumables, in fact, while a little less than half of Dollar Tree's are.

And remember, this sales-mix data includes Family Dollar's revenue, which presumably is more like Dollar General than not. Once Family Dollar's sales are taken out of the mix, look for Dollar Tree's sales mix to shift to an even greater proportion of discretionary goods.

Built to thrive in different environments

Great, but what does this mean for current and would-be investors of either stock?

It seems counterintuitive at first, but Dollar General's significant exposure to consumables is a problem when inflation lingers at relatively high levels, as it has since soared in 2021 and 2022. Not only does this pump up the retailer's costs on goods that already sport paper-thin margins, but in many cases struggling consumers simply stop making these purchases rather than shopping around for a cheaper alternative. As CEO Todd Vasos said last August following a disappointing Q2 report that preceded a cut to full-year guidance, "this lower-end consumer continues to be very much financially strapped, especially as it relates to her ability to feed her families and support her families." That message was reiterated in March this year.

The graphic below quantifies Vasos' qualitative assessment. Dollar General's same-store sales growth in 2022 is only the result of 2021's steep declines. This improvement withered in 2023, and has yet to be restored in earnest.

Dollar General's same-store sales have been subpar since 2021, crimped by inflation.

Data source: Dollar General Corp. Chart by author. (Note that the reason Dollar General's same-store sales soared in 2022 is only because the comparisons to 2021's poor numbers were so easy to improve.)

In contrast, Dollar Tree's discretionary business is arguably a competitive edge when inflation is chipping away at consumers' buying power.

This also initially seems counterintuitive. Think bigger-picture though. In a normal, decent economic environment, consumers might splurge modestly on décor, kitchenware, toys and the like with purchases at Walmart, Target, or Amazon. When forced to really pinch pennies though, these "splurges" increasingly happen at Dollar Tree at an affordable starting price point of $1.25.

In other words, Dollar Tree is the spending downgrade that Dollar General can't be.

The comparison below supports this argument. Not only have Dollar Tree's same-store sales consistently outgrown those of Dollar General since inflation was catapulted in 2021, Dollar Tree appears to have actually thrived when Dollar General couldn't specifically because of this lingering inflation.

Dollar Tree's same-store sales growth has consistently beaten Dollar General's since 2021, when inflation first soared.

Data source: Dollar General Corp. and Dollar Tree Inc. Chart by author. Note that Dollar Tree's same-store sales growth data does not include Family Dollar's same-store sales figures.

These two stocks aren't exactly interchangeable

The opposite situation will, of course, lead to the opposite outcome. That is to say, if and when inflation finally cools and rekindled economic strength takes hold -- improving household incomes even in rural areas -- that plays to Dollar General's strengths.

That wouldn't necessarily put Dollar Tree at a troubling disadvantage though, to be clear. Dollar Tree's greater exposure to more urban shoppers and at least slightly bigger household incomes keeps its business relatively steady. There will also always be at least some demand for an affordable "treasure hunt" that only Dollar Tree can offer.

Still, an improving economy would set the stage for a shift in the competitive dynamic between these two dollar store chains, which could ultimately make a difference in their underlying stocks' performances.

And that may be what the market's betting on happening sooner rather than later, in light of Dollar General stock's recent market-beating run-up.

In the meantime, Dollar Tree shares are underperforming at least partly due to its Family Dollar drama. Even if it will be shedding this problematic arm soon, it's disruptive. Some investors may also be sensing a brewing shift toward economic health despite fallout from newly imposed tariffs that Dollar Tree is far more vulnerable to than Dollar General.

If you don't think the U.S. economy is actually out of the woods yet though (particularly as it pertains to consumers' buying power), beaten-down Dollar Tree shares are still arguably your better bet. Dollar General's more modest exposure to higher tariff costs still isn't enough to offset its disadvantageous mix of shopper demographics and its heavy reliance on lower-margin consumables.

Should you invest $1,000 in Dollar Tree right now?

Before you buy stock in Dollar Tree, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Dollar Tree wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $614,911!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $714,958!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 907% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 163% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 5, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Target, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends Ollie's Bargain Outlet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Here's Why I'm Still Investing in May

2025 has been an eventful year on Wall Street. The market has been making wild moves in response to unpredictable events. Many market watchers expect a downturn, a recession, and/or another bear market to emerge any day now. Then again, they've already been looking for these negative outcomes for several months.

There was a sharp drop in early April, but it didn't really stick. Whether you call the current situation a bear market or not, it's certainly a period of huge volatility.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

I understand if you've sworn off investing altogether amid these shifting economic conditions However, I've been putting more spare cash to work than usual in recent months -- and I plan to continue doing so. Let me explain why I'm an unusually active stock investor in this fickle market. By the time I'm done, you just might want to join me.

Timing the market is an impossible game

Nobody knows what the stock market will do tomorrow, or next week, or next year.

There are surprises around every corner. Nobody expected the COVID-19 pandemic. The artificial intelligence (AI) surge was another surprise. The shocking dot-com boom was followed by an equally unexpected crash. I could go on and on.

The point is, real-world events have profound and unpredictable effects on the stock market. Some shocks beget golden eras for specific industries. Others can lay a muffling blanket over the whole economy.

So I don't trust anyone who says they know what the market will do over a specific period. Even master investor Warren Buffett can't forecast Wall Street's next moves.

"Let me be clear on one point: I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market," Buffett said in a 2008 New York Times article. "I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month or a year from now."

If Buffett doesn't know, I don't stand a chance of getting it right. It's not for me to forecast when the next market downturn will start, or how deep it might go. Trying to time my stock purchases for the absolute bottom of a potential trough is a bad idea.

A wide-eyed, nervous person looks at the camera over a white barrier.

Image source: Getty Images.

Time in the market is a winning strategy

That 2008 Buffett article didn't end on that gloomy note, of course. He went on to describe his contrarian investment style, and his focus on holding great stocks for a long time.

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," he wrote. Yeah, you've heard that bit before. "Bad news is an investor's best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price."

In the long run, great companies will make patient shareholders happy. If you're not comfortable with picking the best stocks in a crowded market, a diversified mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) will do the same job.

For example, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) will never beat the market. However, it will help you build up your wealth if you invest in it steadily over many years and decades.

So I won't nail the perfect time to buy -- but at least I'm trying

Math is a wonderful science. I'm particularly thrilled about the power of compound growth.

Earning annual returns of 10% on your investments for a decade won't just double your money, because you're not just experiencing those 10% gains on your portfolio's original value. In the second year, you'll also see a 10% gain on the first year's gains, and so on in every year that follows. The benefits really start to rack up over time. In this basic example, If you started with a $1,000 investment, after 10 years, your investment would be worth $2,594.

Longer investment periods will continue to boost the overall returns. Add another decade to that $1,000 thought experiment with perfect annual returns of 10%, and you'd have $6,727 at the end. Going to 30 years results in a $17,449 result.

In reality, your gains won't be smooth. You'll go through down years like 2022 and fantastic periods like 2024. Adding more cash to your portfolio is a great idea when the market is booming. Yet as Warren Buffett suggests, you can get more value for your investing dollar when stock charts are trending down.

What I'm buying in 2025

That's why I don't mind buying stocks and exchange-traded funds in this nerve-wracking economy. My most recent buys have included the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and the more aggressive Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth (NASDAQ: VONG) ETF. Among my hand-picked stock buys in recent weeks, you'll find a few shares of retail giant Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and media-streaming pioneer Roku (NASDAQ: ROKU). These are some of my best investment ideas right now.

It feels easy to find undervalued stocks right now. I've only shared a few of my 2025 purchases here. Most of them have posted negative returns in the early going, and that's fine. I might just keep buying them at better and better starting prices.

Should you invest $1,000 in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF right now?

Before you buy stock in Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $617,181!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $719,371!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 909% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 163% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 5, 2025

Anders Bylund has positions in Roku, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, Vanguard Scottsdale Funds-Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth ETF, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Roku, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why Walmart Stock Jumped 11% in April

Walmart (NYSE: WMT) stock gained 11% in April, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Investors are flocking to what they see as a safe stock in the new tariff environment, and this call was bolstered by updates at the company's annual shareholders' meeting, where management shared recent successes.

A safe name in an uncertain world

Walmart has been enjoying strong growth recently, particularly in its e-commerce business, which is driving growth across the business. It's the largest retailer in the world, with more than 10,000 stores globally, nearly half in the U.S., and it happens to be a discount retailer, which makes it even more attractive when there's inflation.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

In the 2025 fiscal fourth quarter (ended Jan. 31), sales increased 5.3% (currency neutral) over last year, with operating income up 9.4%. Sales growth was driven by e-commerce, which was up 16% year over year. It was late to the e-commerce game, but it's finally leveraging its assets, meaning its stores, to beat out other e-commerce retailers. It's using its huge stores as distribution centers, and its unmatched portfolio count means it can get goods to customers fast and at a low cost. E-commerce sales increased 21% for the full year.

Management is taking a confident stance on tariffs. "History tells us that when we lean into these periods of uncertainty, Walmart emerges on the other side with greater share and a stronger business," said CFO John Rainey.

The company gave a positive outlook at the investor meeting, where it identified ways to drive growth through offering more value and leaning into technology. It sees the potential to widen margins as it grows its high-incremental-margin businesses, and it outlined a plan to generate higher cash flow and create greater shareholder value.

A Walmart worker in a store.

Image source: Walmart.

The dividend doesn't hurt, either

Walmart pays a growing dividend that yields 0.9% at the current price. That's pretty low because it moves conversely with the stock price, and the stock has been on fire.

It's risen so high that it trades at a P/E ratio of 41, which is much higher than the typical safe stock. Investors see a rare combination of growth and security in Walmart stock, plus the dividend, which makes the stock look very attractive in today's environment.

At this price, I wouldn't make Walmart a central position in your portfolio, but it's a strong contender if you're looking for a stable, dividend-paying stock.

Should you invest $1,000 in Walmart right now?

Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $623,685!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $701,781!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 906% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 164% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 5, 2025

Jennifer Saibil has positions in Walmart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

A Steady Business During Uncertain Times

In this podcast, Motley Fool analyst Jason Moser and host Ricky Mulvey discuss:

  • How trade disputes are impacting the Port of Los Angeles.
  • What PayPal's advertising business means for its growth story.
  • Earnings from Spotify.

Then, Motley Fool personal finance expert Robert Brokamp joins Ricky to discuss how to diversify your savings.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

To catch full episodes of all The Motley Fool's free podcasts, check out our podcast center. When you're ready to invest, check out this top 10 list of stocks to buy.

A full transcript is below.

Should you invest $1,000 in PayPal right now?

Before you buy stock in PayPal, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and PayPal wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $623,685!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $701,781!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 906% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 164% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of May 5, 2025

This video was recorded on April 29, 2025

[Advertisement]

Ricky Mulvey: The ships are slowing down. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. 'm Ricky Mulvey joined today by Jason Moser, the man who can do it all by himself. Jason, thanks for being here, man.

Jason Moser: Thank you for having me, Ricky. How's everything going?

Ricky Mulvey: It's going pretty well. I'm going to Casa Bonita tonight, which I feel like is a real introduction to Denver, and I will tell you about what that is maybe after the show, because we got a lot of news to break down.

Jason Moser: Yes, we do.

Ricky Mulvey: Let's get to this story. We have a lot of earnings going on, but I think this macro story is worthy of investors attention. Gene Seroka is the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, and anytime you start getting port directors going on cable news, it's usually not a great sign for the economy, JMo. He went on CNBC's Squawk Box, and he said that he expects cargo volume to be down by more than a third next week, compared to last year, and that a number of major American retailers are stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs. To lay out the law, who's getting hurt by this?

Jason Moser: Maybe the better question is, who isn't getting hurt by this? Because it does seem like something that is going to hurt an awful lot of folks covering the spectrum there. I think, generally speaking, small businesses stand out as ones getting a bit more hurt by this, at least in the near term. They tend to not have the same financial resources and are a little bit more dependent on imports and whatnot. I think large companies like Walmart, your Costcos of the world, they're able to shoulder the burden more just because of their scale. Now, with that said, I will say Walmart is particularly levered to China, for example. It's estimated that 60-70% of Walmart's globally sourced products actually come from China. Even more noteworthy, I think there is market research that suggests that figure could be closer to 70-80% for merchandise sold in the US so they're not immune, but they have the ability to shoulder that burden. They can handle it and bye their time as all of this tariff stuff plays out. I think ultimately that really points to the biggest question mark in regard to all of this is just when is this going to ultimately be resolved? And that is still just very unclear, but there's just no question, small businesses are going to feel the brunt of this very quickly.

Ricky Mulvey: Well, I think there will at least be an inflection point when these decreased shiploads lead to empty shelves in physical stores and on online stores like Amazon. I've noticed that these looming tariffs have absolutely impacted my shopping habits. Are you doing any pre tariff shopping in the Moser household right now?

Jason Moser: I have not yet, but it is still early. Now, when I start seeing Chewy telling me that our dog and cat food is out of stock and that shipment's not coming, then I know I've got serious problems because I have three dogs and a cat that won't stand for that, and I can't explain it to him either. But as of now, listen, I've got a garage full of toilet paper and paper towels so I think we at least have the necessities for now.

Ricky Mulvey: You've got a big yard, and you just might need to learn how to hunt in order to provide for your dogs. I've noticed it over here, I just bought a set of AirPods because I'm like, Oh, these are made in China and better get them while I can, first of all, get them and while they're on sale. I've been stocking up on clothes just because I don't know what's going to happen to the shelves. I don't know if my size is going to be impacted, but yeah, it's absolutely impacted my shopping habits, Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok released a presentation earlier this month, and he laid out a timeline for tariffs, and there's a slide with the spicy title for a PowerPoint slide, the voluntary trade reset recession. Points out early mid May, that's when you start seeing those containerships come to a stop. Then in mid to late May, that's when trucking demand also comes to a halt a fewer trucks are taking things off containerships. Then right in that late May, early June window, that's when you're going to see empty shelves and companies responding to lower sales. What do you think about that timeline?

Jason Moser: I think it's certainly a potential outcome in theory. Now, if that happens, I think there will be massive political consequences. We have to look at this and say well, This is self inflicted. We started this, and it's a matter of trying to figure out, ultimately what the goal is here, and I think that is still unclear, and we're operating just on this day to day headline economy, so to speak. My hope is that this is a worst case scenario and that cooler heads prevail sooner rather than later. But listen, we're just getting ready to start May here, very soon so that's not far off and if that happens, clearly, the consumer will have their say.

Ricky Mulvey: Let's take a look at PayPal reported this morning, and JMo is an investor in this company. I'm pretty happy to own a company that's not making big moves on earnings right now. I'll take some stability that seems to be what PayPal is offering, revenue up 2% on a currency neutral basis. Transaction margin dollars, which is just direct transaction revenue minus transaction expenses. Think things like payment processing, and PayPal likes that is a core measure of its profitability. That was up 7% to about $3.7 billion. Free cash flow, and adjusted free cash flow, both down from last year by about 45% in a quarter respectively. There's some cash flow questions, some operating profitability targets happening. What are your big takeaways from the quarter?

Jason Moser: Yeah, I think it was an OK quarter. It was right in that meaty part of the curve, as George Costanza might say. Not showing off, not falling behind. It was their fifth consecutive quarter of profitable growth, which I think is really encouraging for Alex Chriss. As you mentioned, revenue growth was really non existent, but I wouldn't really look into that as much. I think what we're seeing with PayPal, they're doing a very good job of bringing things down to the bottom line. We saw GAAP earnings per share, up 56%, non GAP earnings per share, up 23%, and really just flew past the guidance that they offered from a quarter ago. I think when you look at the metrics that really matter for the business, things like total payment volume that was up 3%. $417 billion going through those networks there. This is up 4% currency neutral, payment transactions and payment transactions per active account saw a little bit of a decrease, but that's in regard to the payment service provider part of PayPal so, ultimately, those numbers actually excluding that payment service provider part of the business were up as well, and active accounts grew 2% to 436 million.

Remember, they went through just a period not too long ago of trying to call a lot of those inactive accounts that really aren't using the service, so to speak. But returned 1.5 billion dollar to shareholders with share repurchases, which I think was very encouraging. In regard to cash flow, I think the one thing with cash flow with PayPal, it's going to ebb and flow a little bit, particularly because of the buy now pay later side of the business, that fell a little bit, just because of some timing stuff between originating some European buy now pay later receivables and then the ultimate sale of those receivables so I wouldn't read too much into that. This is still a business that generates a ton of cash.

The one thing that stood out to me, though in the quarter that I just can't help but wonder what the future holds for this, because PayPal is building out this little ads part of the business right now, PayPal ads, and they're making some progress. I don't know is this a sneaky ad play? It could be, they're starting to introduce programmatic advertising, and they're starting to launch offsite ads, which ultimately those are ads that are generated from all of this data that PayPal and Venmo and those properties get. that's the beauty of this company. They generate a ton of data because of the consumers that use these services so it reminds me a little bit of Amazon back in the day. If you remember with Amazon, several years back, we knew they were getting into advertising, but didn't really know if it was going to be anything material so it was starting from nothing. But you fast forward to today, Amazon is generating they're on a $70 billion run rate for their advertising business alone. Now, I'm not saying that PayPal could get to that scale. But I do think PayPal could get to meaningful scale relative to its business, and that is very high margin revenue. I think that's going to be something fun to follow with this company as time goes on, particularly as they're launching this offsite advertising business.

Ricky Mulvey: I think one of my big questions then for PayPal's future is the buy now pay later initiative. You see here, Alex Chriss, touting the growth in that in that people are when they use buy now pay later, they're making more transactions. But if we're skidding into a self induced recession, there may be consequences for that, and on a personal level, I'm not super thrilled about buy now pay later. I understand it's part of the business. But speaking strictly as an investor is a growth lever. If you're looking at the growth in that and you're also seeing credit card delinquencies going up, maybe that's not a great thing for that part of PayPal's business.

Jason Moser: I think that's a very valid point. Buy now pay later is just credit card ultimately in another form and you have to count on the fact that some of those loans, so to speak, are not going to pan out, and they're going to write off delinquencies and non payments there. We are seeing consumers relying more and more on buy now pay later for. Buy now pay later, it's a clever product for things that maybe aren't necessities, but when you start seeing data that shows consumers are using buy now pay later for things like their groceries, that's where you start wondering what is the real condition or what is the real state of the consumer? And when you see consumers resorting to BNPL for necessities like groceries, that starts to raise at least some yellow flags in the near term.

Ricky Mulvey: What do you think about CEO Alex Chriss reaffirming the full year guidance? We talked about the macro pressures that will have an impact on this company. A lot of PayPal transactions are consumer spending. If you're in the office of the CEO, what are you telling him? Are you telling him to pool lower guidance? What's going on with that?

Jason Moser: I wouldn't tell him to pull guidance necessarily. I think that what we've seen with Chriss over the couple of years that he's been with the company at this point, he seems to at least like to underpromise and overdeliver I like that. Now, some people will call that sandbagging. I don't care, whatever you want to call it, it's fine on me. But he sets the bar fairly reasonably so he's not setting these super high aspirations, and we know how that works. You set the bar high, eventually, you miss it, and the market really punishes you. But if you set the bar just not low, but just right there in that mid range, that goldilocks range you can hit those targets, you can continue to grow at modest rates, and you're not disappointing the market in the near term. You're not really thrilling everybody in the near term either, but at least you're able to hit those targets and keep on moving the business in the direction that you intend. I don't mind them maintaining that guidance because it does seem like they are offering relatively modest expectations. But as we know, and we're seeing as the headlines change day to day, things can materialize very quickly so it'll be something to keep an eye on for sure.

Ricky Mulvey: Let's go to Spotify real quick. Monthly active users growing 10% for the company. Premium subs grew 12%, but the analysts did not like the user growth projections. That's why the stock is getting punished a little bit. CEO Daniel Ek quickly on the conference call saying we could be impacted by tariffs, but people still want to be entertained. They want to learn stuff they want to listen to music. Before we get into the meat of this conversation, JMo, we have a content partnership with Spotify. The Motley Fool actively recommends the stock, I own the stock. How's that for bias? I also want their algorithm to promote this podcast, as well. I'm speaking from a pretty biased perspective but still, in my view, a pretty strong company when you're looking into the actual business results, anything there stand out to you from Spotify's quarter.

Jason Moser: The stock has been on a heck of a run here recently so a little pullback is understandable. There was a bit of a miss on operating income there, and that was due to what they were calling social charge, what they call social charges, which are ultimately payroll taxes associated with employees salaries and benefits in other countries. But to me, this is still just such a strong business. You see the growth in the users, whether it's premium or ad supported. It's amazing to see what this business has become, and it's evolving so far beyond being like a music streaming app. I think that when you consider that you consider the fact that Spotify has such strong market share in the entertainment industry at large, to me I understand there are some macro concerns there in the near term, but I think when you look at it, at the end of the day, Spotify and things like Netflix, those are the subscriptions that consumers will probably cut last. The value-focused consumer is looking for value and understanding what are they getting for their dollar. That monthly charge for Spotify or for something like Netflix, given how much we all use those, they, I think, give this company a resiliency that probably more don't have.

Ricky Mulvey: We'll leave it there. Jason Moser, thanks for being here. Appreciate your time and your insight.

Jason Moser: Thank you.

Ricky Mulvey: Hey, it's Ricky, and I want to shout out another podcast called Radical Candor. Based on the New York Times best selling book, Radical Candor talks about how to be a great boss without losing your humanity. Kim Scott, Amy Sandler and Jason Rozov deliver actionable insights each week to help you improve your career and relationships. They have other business experts, including Guy Kawasaki and Steven Covery to stop in and share how they use Radical Candor concepts and their work. Their guidance will help you move beyond ineffective flattery and brutal criticism toward guidance that drives real growth and development. Listen every Wednesday for new episodes wherever you get your podcasts and see how you can apply Radical Candor in your life.

Are you feeling a little concentrated? Up next, Robert Brokamp joins me to discuss some ways to diversify your portfolio. This year has been a reminder that stocks can be volatile. In 2023 and 2024, investors were treated to 20% plus returns in the S&P 500. This year, both the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 were in bear market territory, and the S&P 500 got pretty close. That's if we define a bear market is a drop of 20% or more from all time highs. A drop that in and of itself is the cost of doing business in the stock market, even if the reason this time is, well, you can decide for yourself. Still, it's a good time to ask some questions. If you're near retirement, are you too concentrated in tech stocks? This is a question that even indexers should ask since about one-third of the S&P 500's market value lies in just seven companies. Should I follow the lead of institutional investors spreading their bets outside of the United States, or even Berkshire Hathaway, which now has the most cash on the books of any company Bro ever? All of this is to say, how can I diversify my portfolio to take some of the bite out of bear markets?

Robert Brokamp: Well, there are plenty of investments that may add some balls to your portfolio, and we're going to talk about the most popular candidates. But I first want to talk a little bit about diversification in general. We're going to talk about what diversifies a portfolio for what I see as the typical Motley Fool investor who owns stocks primarily in the S&P 500, which, as you mentioned, Ricky, has a tilt toward growth leaning tech-oriented, tech adjacent companies, and a lot of our listeners also own those companies outright. That's the starting point here. I do want to emphasize that diversification is somewhat of a double-edged sword. You often have to own a diversifying asset through many stretches of, frankly, pretty mediocre ho-hum performance in order to eventually get the payoff. Then as I talk about these various things, I do think it's important that when you're looking for a diversifier, it's helpful to know how they perform basically during past market downturns, and over the last 25 years, there's been a good range of examples to see how investments perform during different types of bear markets. We had longer ones such as the dotcom crash and the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Market dropped more than 50% then. I took more than five years for the market to recover. But then we've also had shorter ones like the pandemic panick and 2022. With all that said, here are some diversifiers to consider, and I'm going to give each a letter grade.

Ricky Mulvey: What's the grade then for the dividend payers?

Robert Brokamp: I'm going to give dividend payers A, B, and here I'm talking about a diversified mix of companies that have paid a consistent and growing dividend for many years, and many have an above average yield. With the current yield on the S&P 500 being 1.3%, it doesn't take much to have an above average yield. It's not necessarily the dividends themselves that make these good diversifiers, though, getting a reliable stream of income is nice, especially since historically that stream will outpace inflation, it's that these types of companies tend to be more value-oriented, a little less volatile than the overall market, and score high on other factors such as quality, which is dined by different people in different ways. But basically comes down to a company that is profitable. The earnings growth is less volatile and they have a strong balance sheet, meaning not a lot of debt. I recently looked at the returns of the 10 biggest dividend focus ETFs, and they're all down this year, but not as much as the overall market. In 2022, when the S&P 500 was down almost 20%, NASDAQ was down more than 30%. The losses in these ETFs were in the single digits, and a couple actually made money. That's it. The diversification among dividend payers is important. During the Great Recession, some of the best dividend payers were financial stocks, and they got walloped. You definitely want a diversified portfolio of dividend payers.

Ricky Mulvey: Our colleagues, Matt Argersinger and Anthony Shavon, who run our dividend investing in service would also tell you that dividends are great for companies to pay because they make them a little bit more disciplined on capital allocation decisions when they're not maybe pursuing growth at all costs, and they have to return a little something to their shareholders. Another idea, international stocks, getting outside the United States. Bro, how are you feeling about these? What's the grade right now?

Robert Brokamp: I'm going to give them a C plus, which doesn't sound great, though, I think most people should have a little bit of international exposure. I'm giving them a C plus because, frankly, over the past 15 years, it's been tough to argue for international stocks. US stocks have outperformed them by some measure, it's a historical amount. But looking longer-term, there are many long-term periods, several years, even a decade or more, when international stocks outperform US stocks. You could saw it in parts of the '70s, the '80s, and the early 2000s, and looking very short-term, the total non-US stock market is actually up 8% so far this year, while US stocks are down, developed market stocks are doing even better, returning almost 11%. I do think there's something special about the American economy, and it explains why US stocks have outperformed the vast majority of other national stock markets over the last century or so, which is why I'm giving international stocks a C plus when it comes to diversification. But there's no question that there are long stretches when international stocks will do well, and they're certainly a lot cheaper these days than US stocks when you look at P/E or dividend yield or anything like that, which is why I personally have between 15 and 20% of my portfolio overseas.

Ricky Mulvey: The next one is a big one. We could be talking multifamily REITs, rental properties, office buildings. We could be talking about the Vanguard entire real estate index fund, but I'll make it easy for you, Bro. How are you feeling about real estate?

Robert Brokamp: As you hinted at, there are all real estate, so I'm going to give it a range of grades from C plus to B plus, depending on the type of real estate. A few weeks ago, we did an episode on what happens to different types of assets during a recession. We cited research which actually found that home prices actually hold up well. In fact, they tend to do better during bear markets and stocks than during bull markets with the very notable exception, of course, a 2007-2009 recession when both the economy, the stock market, and home prices collapsed. But usually, over the long-term, residential real estate, whether it's your own home or perhaps investing in rentals, can provide some excellent diversification. Now, you hinted at REITs, real estate investment trust. These are stocks and companies that own and operate real estate. It can be all real estate: apartment buildings, medical facilities, office facilities, storage, and they can be a good portfolio diversifier as well, though, like international stocks, man, they have lagged the S&P 500 for a good while now. Their diversification benefits can be mixed. They did very well during the dotcom crash and the ensuing recession, but also they were part of the real estate bubble, and boy, they got pummeled in 2008. As a starting point, I think it makes sense to have maybe a 5% allocation to REITs, and you can use that Vanguard ETF that you suggested. That's what I choose, especially if you're close to in retirement since they have above average yields, but they're still moderately to highly correlated to the overall stock market, so the diversification benefits are going to be mixed.

Ricky Mulvey: This next one has been on a run. Two investments over the past 12 months. One of these has returned about 7%. The one that I'm talking about now has returned 42%. Bro, this is the comparison between what the S&P 500 has done over the past year and gold.

Robert Brokamp: It's been quite remarkable. I'm going to give gold a diversifying grade of C plus, though I could easily be moved to a B minus on this. Gold has been in the news a lot lately because, as you pointed out, the return has been exceptional. It's up 26% so far this year, based on the performance of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, and as you may have seen on social media, it's actually returned about the same as the S&P 500 over the past 20 years, almost identical. Why am I giving it a C plus? Well, first of all, part of it is just philosophical. We at the full believe in owning businesses with products, services, innovations, they generate a growing stream of cash. Gold, on the other hand, just a piece of metal, pass some decorative industrial uses, but mostly you're just betting that someone will be willing to pay a higher price for it in the future, not because it's going to be generating more cash in the future, but you're just hoping that there'll be more demand. Gold has gone through some really long stretches of lousy performance. It did really well in the 1970s due to the high inflation, peaked in 1980, went the other direction, and it took around 25 years to get back to its 1980 peak. All that said, it is true that gold has done well during bear market in stocks. We're seeing that this year, saw in 2022, 2008, and in two of the three bad years during the dotcom crash. It's fine to own some Gold as a hedge against bear markets, which is why I own little myself. I own some of that SPDR Gold Shares ETF.

Ricky Mulvey: By the time you notice it's outperforming, maybe that means you're a little late to the party on gold, Bro? It is you're betting on someone to pay more for it than you are today. However, gold has been around for thousands of years that people have been accepting it is a store of value. A little bit more of a track record there than something like crypto or even the tulip bulbs I was trying to sell you before we were recording. Let's get to crypto, because this is one that is interesting, and some investors still see it as a store of value. Let's talk for hours about Bitcoin as a digital gold in this economy we live in.

Robert Brokamp: We could talk for hours. In terms of a grade, I'm giving this one incomplete. I'm going back to my teaching days. I just feel like I can't give it a grade right now because it's just too soon to say what diversification benefit you're going to get from crypto. We'll talk mostly about Bitcoin, but as you know, there's so many varieties of it. It just doesn't have a long enough history for me. Bitcoin is flat for the year, which means it's doing better than in the stock market, so that's good news. But in 2022, it plummeted more than 60%. For me, the jury's still out. There's no question that it is gaining wider adoption, both in terms of by investors, by countries, and it's boosted by the availability of ETFs to make it easier to invest. I'm more comfortable investing in it than I would have been maybe three or four years ago. But the value of it as a diversifier is pretty much still unproven.

Ricky Mulvey: How about as a strategic reserve? Moving on. Let's get to alternatives, however you define them.

Robert Brokamp: This is a very broad category that can include really all investments that aren't commonly held by everyday investors. We're talking commodities, managed futures, currencies, hedge funds, private equity, and so on. For the most part, it's difficult or expensive for the regular investor to buy into these types of investments, and you're often not getting the cream of the crop. You're getting what's left over. Depending on how you invest in them, they keep illiquid and/or endure really long periods of bad or at least mediocre performance. For most people, I don't think they're necessary. However, I will add that the proponents of these types of investments do make some good points. Primarily, they say that a standard portfolio of stocks and bonds isn't as diversified as some people think because they often rely on a single factor like the overall economy or maybe just the movement of interest rates. We saw that in 2022 when interest rates skyrocketed and stocks and bonds fell. If you have the time and the inclination to research more about alternatives, you actually might find some things that strike your fancy. Just be prepared to pay higher fees to hold on to something that will behave very differently from a standard portfolio, which, I guess is the whole point.

Ricky Mulvey: The next one is Uncle Warren's one of his favorites right now, and that is just cash, Bro.

Robert Brokamp: Cash is boring, but I'm going to give it at an A, front of the class. I won't belabor this, cash is king or queen when times get tough. It's the only investment that you can feel reasonably sure won't drop in value. Just make sure you're putting in the effort to get the highest yields possible, which these days is close to or around 4%, and you're going to have to accept the fact that returns will never be great. When you invest in cash, you're making a trade-off. You're choosing lower return certainty over the unpredictable possibility, and you can even say historical probability that you'd earn a higher return in stocks given enough time. But for money you need in the next few years that you want to make sure holds up in value, it's hard to beat cash.

Ricky Mulvey: Another way you can take your money out of the stock market is to put it in bonds. Bro, there are some higher-yielding bond funds that look pretty attractive to me.

Robert Brokamp: This is why I'm giving this a range of grades, actually, from C minus to A. Because when it comes to bonds, the returns will depend on the issuer, the duration, meaning short or long-term, shorter-term bonds are going to be less volatile, longer-terms are much more volatile and how you own them, individual bonds versus bond funds. But let's start with the safest and move on to the riskiest. US treasuries are considered very safe, maybe not as safe as they were like five years ago, Fitch and S&P have downgraded them, and Moody's made some announcement recently about they might be doing some things as well, but they're still considered the safest investments in the world. Investment grade corporates are considered safe. Not super safe, but safe. Then you have below investment grade corporates, otherwise known as junk, and they're very risky. This is where you get the higher yields. You'll get much higher yields from junk bonds and somewhat higher yields from corporates, but you got to understand that they will often go down during recessions, and junk bonds really go down.

I'm going to talk about 20% or more during the tough times. Bonds are holding up pretty well this year, by the way, returning around 3%, but they've been disappointing over the past several years. In fact, it's really been one of the worst stretches for bonds in US history. I would say the future looks brighter, but if you want more certainty from bonds, explore investing in individual bonds because you know exactly how much interest you're going to get. How much you're going to get back when the bond matures at maturity date, assuming the issuer is still in business, of course. I would also explore what are known as either target date bond funds or defined maturity bond funds. These only owned bonds that mature in the same year. That way you have a little bit more certainty about what they'll be worth when that year arrives. The two biggest issuers of these ETFs are iShares and Invesco.

Ricky Mulvey: Bro, junk bonds are how I started my casino chain. Let's wrap it up with annuities.

Robert Brokamp: Yes, annuities. Not everyone's favorite topic, but let me explain. I'm going to give these an A for the right people. When I mean annuity, I'm saying anything that sends you a regular check in retirement for the rest of your life. In the original versions of annuities, you'd get that check or that payment every year. You'd get it annually, which is why they're called annuities. We all get some of this. By this, I'm talking about Social Security. Yes, Social Security is in trouble. People in their 50s and younger may not get everything they're promised, but you'll get most of what you're promised, and you'll get that check every month, regardless of what's happening in the stock and bond markets, it adjusts for inflation. It's partially tax-free. I think if you can maximize your Social Security benefit to some degree, that is a great diversifier in retirement. Same principle if you're getting a defined benefit pension, the traditional pension. If you can maximize that, that's good. Now, you can buy more, actually buying annuity from an insurance company. But the only annuity that appeals to me personally it's called a single premium Immediate annuity. You hand over a lump sum, say, $100,000, and you'll get $68,000 a year for the rest of your life. You give up a lot of liquidity, so don't do it without understanding the loss of liquidity when you do that. If you choose to go that way, you take that money from the portion of your portfolio that would otherwise have been taken from the bond part of your portfolio.

Ricky Mulvey: Very good. Robert Brokamp, appreciate being here. Thanks for your time and insight.

Robert Brokamp: My pleasure, Ricky.

Ricky Mulvey: As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about in the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and are not approved by advertisers. The Motley Fool only picks products that would personally recommend to friends like you. I'm Ricky Mulvey. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Jason Moser has positions in Amazon and PayPal. Ricky Mulvey has positions in Chewy, Netflix, PayPal, and Spotify Technology. Robert Brokamp has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, Bitcoin, Chewy, Costco Wholesale, Moody's, Netflix, PayPal, Spotify Technology, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2027 $42.50 calls on PayPal and short June 2025 $77.50 calls on PayPal. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Contrarian Opinion: Tariffs, Inflation, and Recession Fears Could Be a Tailwind for This Retail Stock and Propel It to a $1 Trillion Valuation

Right now, there are only seven public companies that are trading at a market capitalization north of $1 trillion. The exclusive list of trillion-dollar stocks includes Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Berkshire Hathaway.

Beyond trillion-dollar stocks, the next three largest companies in the world as measured by market cap are Broadcom, Tesla, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. Do you see any themes here?

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

With the exception of Berkshire, each trillion-dollar or near-trillion-dollar business dominates the technology sector. The next largest company after those referenced above is retail specialist Walmart (NYSE: WMT). With a market value of approximately $760 billion, Walmart is the most valuable non-pure-play technology business on the planet besides Berkshire.

The exterior of a Walmart store.

Image source: Getty Images.

What's interesting is that each company valued higher than Walmart could be facing some unwelcome deceleration across their various businesses thanks in large part to new tariff policies. A common fear in the stock market right now is that tariffs could lead to higher prices (inflation) for consumer goods and raw materials, thereby sparking an economic slowdown (recession).

As a contrarian, I think a tariff-induced slowdown could actually benefit Walmart. Let's explore why Walmart's business is ideally positioned to maneuver around any crises caused by tariffs. From there, I'll make the case for why Walmart could soon earn its entry into the trillion-dollar club.

Walmart's business is built for a tough economy

Walmart is primarily known as a brick-and-mortar powerhouse -- offering consumers a variety of goods across apparel, consumer electronics, produce, home remedies, and much more. While that might not sound too different from stores like Target or CVS, Walmart's main value proposition is its attractive prices. Cost-conscious shoppers tend to gravitate toward stores such as Walmart during periods underscored by rising prices or economic uncertainty.

To back this idea up, let's take a look at some key performance indicators for the retail juggernaut over the last few years.

US Inflation Rate Chart

US Inflation Rate data by YCharts

The chart above illustrates trends seen in Walmart's revenue and gross profit, indexed against inflation rates over the last five years. In addition, I've included the brief (but important) COVID-19 recession -- as illustrated by the grey column on the left. Let's unpack what's happening here.

Following the COVID-19 recession in early 2020, inflation levels started accelerating -- peaking at around 9% in mid-2022. During this period, Walmart's revenue and gross profit started to steadily climb. This is an impressive feat, considering many retailers were plagued by lower foot traffic during the pandemic.

Not only are Walmart's prices one way to attract to consumers, but the company has also done a stellar job complementing its physical retail storefronts with an e-commerce marketplace of its own -- providing it with multiple avenues to monetize shoppers.

Taking this a step further, let's analyze some important metrics retailers use to gauge the health of their business. During the fourth quarter of Walmart's fiscal 2025 (ended Jan. 31), the company recognized same-store sales growth of 4.6%, while transactions rose by 2.8% and average ticket size grew by 1.8%. This means that Walmart is seeing more people come to its stores and spending more money while they are there.

Although same-store sales, transaction volumes, and average order size can be variable in the retail space, I think any concerns related to this are mitigated by Walmart's ability to hold onto its shoppers. The big takeaway I gather from the chart above is that Walmart's revenue and gross profit continue to steadily rise, even as inflation levels have cooled over the last two years.

I think ongoing economic uncertainty from tariffs could wind up being a tailwind for Walmart and its ability to lure consumers in and keep them part of its ecosystem in the long run.

What would it take for Walmart to reach a $1 trillion valuation?

For the fiscal year ended Jan. 31, Walmart's earnings per share (EPS) totaled $2.42. Given the company's current share price of $95, Walmart stock trades for a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 39.

A $1 trillion market capitalization implies roughly a 32% increase Walmart's current valuation of $760 billion. This means in order to reach the trillion-dollar club, Walmart stock would need to be trading around $125 per share.

If I assume that the company expands both its EPS and P/E ratio by 15%, that would imply future earnings of $2.81 and a P/E ratio of 45 for Walmart. In turn, this results in a future share price of about $126, which would put Walmart just above a trillion-dollar market capitalization.

I think this level of EPS growth is attainable for Walmart, especially against the backdrop of a cloudy economic picture. The bigger question mark is whether investors will start applying a premium multiple to Walmart -- viewing it as a more essential player in the retail arena, all while giving the company credit for some of its higher-margin pursuits beyond brick-and-mortar sales.

While the exercise above is rooted in simple math, I am cautiously optimistic that Walmart could emerge as a member of the trillion-dollar club sooner rather than later. Investors looking for opportunities that may be slightly more insulated from tariffs or economic slowdowns may want to consider a position in Walmart right now.

Should you invest $1,000 in Walmart right now?

Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $594,046!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $680,390!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 872% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 160% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 21, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Adam Spatacco has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Target, Tesla, and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and CVS Health and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

7 Reasons to Buy Walmart Stock Like There's No Tomorrow

Walmart (NYSE: WMT), one of the largest retailers in the world, has been a reliable stock for long-term investors. Over the past 10 years, it has gained nearly 270% as the broad market S&P 500 index advanced by about 160%. Factoring in reinvested dividends, Walmart's total return was 340% against the S&P 500's total return of 205%. Here are seven reasons it's still worth buying with both hands today.

A prototype Walmart delivery truck.

Image source: Getty Images.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Continue »

1. Its consistent comps growth

Walmart's comparable-store sales metric, which gauges the year-over-year growth of stores that have been open for at least 12 months (plus its e-commerce sales), has consistently risen over the past decade. It achieved that sales growth by renovating its stores, rolling out more private label brands, matching Amazon's prices, expanding its e-commerce and digital capabilities, and leveraging its massive network of brick-and-mortar stores to fulfill online orders.

Its Sam's Club chain also grew at a healthy rate, keeping pace with rival Costco (NASDAQ: COST) in the membership-driven warehouse club market. Walmart's international growth slowed down in fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2023 (which ended in January 2023) as it divested some of its weaker overseas businesses, but that streamlined segment flourished over the following two years.

Metric

Fiscal 2021

Fiscal 2022

Fiscal 2023

Fiscal 2024

Fiscal 2025

Walmart U.S. comps growth

8.6%

6.4%

6.6%

5.6%

4.5%

Sam's Club U.S. comps growth

11.8%

9.8%

10.5%

4.8%

5.9%

Walmart International sales growth

1%

(16.8%)

0%

10.6%

6.3%

Total revenue growth

6.7%

2.4%

6.7%

6%

5.1%

Data source: Walmart. Comps growth excludes fuel sales.

Walmart's growth over the past five years shows how resistant it was to inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and other disruptive macro headwinds. For its fiscal 2026 (now underway), it expects its net sales to grow by 3% to 4% on a constant-currency basis.

2. Its stable brick-and-mortar expansion

The total number of Walmart stores worldwide declined from 11,501 at the end of fiscal 2020 to 10,593 at the end of fiscal 2022. However, a large portion of that decline was caused by its overseas divestments.

It has been expanding its footprint steadily since then, and it ended fiscal 2025 with 10,711 physical locations. That stable pace of expansion should help it widen its moat and maintain its lead against its smaller retail competitors.

3. Its gross and operating margins are resilient

Walmart's scale enables it to maintain higher gross and operating margins than many other retailers. While surging inflation squeezed its gross and operating margins in 2022 and the first half of 2023, both figures bounced back in the second half of 2023 and 2024 as those headwinds diminished.

WMT Gross Profit Margin Chart

Source: YCharts.

4. It's resistant to tariffs

Those resilient margins suggest that it will be able to resist the impact of President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariffs, even though most of the products it sells are manufactured in China and other Asian countries. Walmart should be better positioned to convince its overseas suppliers to pre-deliver more products to the U.S. warehouses before the larger portion of Trump's tariffs kick back in, leverage its scale to negotiate better prices for its future shipments, have its suppliers absorb some of those higher costs, or pass the costs of tariffs onto consumers by raising its prices. The last solution would certainly be the least preferable for its customers -- but the chain could still sell its products at lower prices than its competitors.

5. It's a Dividend King

Walmart's forward dividend yield of 1% might seem paltry, but it has raised its dividend annually for 52 consecutive years, earning it the title of Dividend King. It also spent just 52% of its free cash flow on its dividend payments over the past 12 months, so it has plenty of capacity to make future hikes.

6. It's still buying back its own shares

Walmart bought back 6% of its outstanding shares over the past five years, 17% of its shares over the past decade, and 36% of its shares over the past 20 years. Its consistent stock buyback policy, combined with its regular dividend hikes, indicates that it's committed to returning a lot of its free cash flow to its investors.

7. It deserves its premium valuations

From fiscal 2025 through fiscal 2028, analysts on average expect its revenue to grow at a compound annual rate of 4% as its EPS increases at a compound annual rate of 11%. Investors should take those estimates with a grain of salt, but they do suggest that Walmart can continue to grow regardless of Trump's tariffs and his escalating trade war, sticky inflation, and other macroeconomic challenges.

That's why Walmart's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 36 doesn't seem too expensive. Costco, which also has plenty of evergreen advantages, trades at 54 times forward earnings. Walmart's stock isn't cheap, but the company's resilience in this rough market justifies its valuation multiple. That's probably why it's still up 6% year to date even as the S&P 500 is down by 7%. Investors who buy the stock today should be well rewarded over the next few years.

Should you invest $1,000 in Walmart right now?

Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $591,533!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $652,319!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 859% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 158% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 21, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Leo Sun has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Costco Wholesale, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why Hasbro, Mattel, and Walmart Stock Investors Love President Trump's Latest Tariffs Promise

Was it only Monday that the U.S. stock market was falling apart, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1,000 or more points, and economic nightmare just around the bend? Indeed it was, and yet, two straight days of strongly rebounding markets seem to have erased that nightmare from investors' minds, at the same time as it erased losses from their portfolios, and sent stock market averages charging deeply into "the green."

In late morning trading Wednesday, 10:55 a.m., the Dow is solidly higher with a 2.6% gain, while the broader S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq are doing even better, up 3% and 4%, respectively. Notable among the stocks enjoying the euphoria today are three consumer goods companies in particular: toymakers Hasbro (NASDAQ: HAS) and Mattel (NASDAQ: MAT), up 5.1% and 6.6%, respectively, and Walmart (NYSE: WMT) with a 0.9% gain (although Walmart, too, was doing even better, earlier).

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

Why consumer goods stocks love President Trump's new tariffs policy

What's behind the optimism? Mr. Donald J. Trump.

Earlier in the week, as you may recall, President Trump spooked stock markets with calls for the dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and threats that failure on the Fed's part to lower interest rates would hurt the economy, raising the specter of recession in many investors' minds. The President's tariffs war, too, was in full swing, with little evidence (yet) of other countries bowing to his demands for economic concessions to avoid imposition of "reciprocal" tariffs.

But my, what a difference a day (or two) makes!

As Wednesday dawned, the President had changed his tune on Powell entirely, reassuring investors he actually has "no intention" of firing the Fed Chair. On tariffs, too, the news is now good, or at least substantially less bad than it seemed on Monday. The President is now promising to "substantially" reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from their current, prohibitive, level of 145%. Once all is said and done with his negotiations, promises the President, tariffs "won't be anywhere near that high."

This, in a nutshell, is why shares of Hasbro, Mattel, and Walmart are all benefiting today. While exact percentages are hard to nail down, and vary year to year, Hasbro and Mattel are both widely recognized to depend heavily on imports of toys, cheaply manufactured in China, to sell to American consumers. Estimates range as high as 70% for the amount of their toys that both companies source from China.

Likewise Walmart is not just a big retailer for both companies' products, but a big retailer of lots of other consumer goods sourced from China. 145% tariffs on Chinese imports could have blown (and to be honest, probably still can) blow a big hole in the business models of all three companies.

But that risk has now come down -- how did the President put it? -- "substantially."

Which of these stocks would you buy?

All this being said, when stock markets score back to back 1,000-plus point gains on headline news, and particularly headline news coming from a source as erratic as Mr. Trump, there's a risk of investors getting irrationally exuberant.

While I'm as happy as any other investor today, to learn that the threat of a global trade war and U.S. recession may not be quite as dire as it looked a couple days ago, valuation still matters. If you're looking to play today's rally in consumer goods stocks, that means you're probably safer sticking to low price-to-earnings ratio stocks like Hasbro, which costs a modest 19 times earnings, or even Mattel -- twice as cheap with a P/E of barely 9x earnings -- than with a relatively expensive retailer like Walmart, which costs nearly 40 times earnings.

Remember: What President Trump giveth today, he could just as easily taketh away tomorrow with another U-turn on tariffs policy. Caveat investor -- and stick to value stocks if you want to stay safe.

Should you invest $1,000 in Walmart right now?

Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $561,046!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $606,106!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 811% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 153% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 21, 2025

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends Hasbro. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Is Walmart a Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2025?

If you're unsure what to make of Walmart (NYSE: WMT), you're not alone. It's resilient, but certainly not immune to the effects of newly enacted tariffs. As CFO David Rainey recently noted: "The range of outcomes for Q1 operating income growth has widened due to less favorable category mix, higher casualty claims expense and the desire to maintain flexibility to invest in price as tariffs are implemented."

Translation? The retailer might be forced to spend a little more or accept narrower profit margins as a means of maintaining market share. The market sensed all this well before the statement was made, of course, which is why the stock is still well down from its February peak despite Wednesday's sizable surge.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

Now, take an honest look at the bigger picture. Walmart is as strong as it's been since its heyday growth of the 1980s and 90s, and far better equipped to handle tariffs than the market's giving it credit for. That spells opportunity for investors.

More strategic sourcing than most people think

Walmart is the world's biggest brick-and-mortar retailer, with 10,771 locations. More than 5,200 of these are in the U.S., where more than 90% of the population lives within 10 miles of a store. It did $681 billion worth of business last fiscal year, up 5% from the previous year's top line.

WMT Revenue (TTM) Chart

WMT Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.

Size isn't everything, though. In fact, it can be a liability simply because the bigger an organization gets, the more difficult it becomes to manage. Any tariff-related headaches, of course, only aggravate such unwieldiness.

However, Walmart isn't nearly as vulnerable to the latest round of tariff-prompted turbulence as it seems like it should be. Roughly two-thirds of what the company spends on inventory is spent on American-made products, for perspective. So, while Mexico and China supply a significant portion of the other one-third of its merchandise costs and many of its U.S. suppliers are certainly affected by tariffs, Walmart is far from being catastrophically undermined, despite much of the recent rhetoric.

The company's also been making moves that ultimately offer it a means of maintaining reasonably wide profit margins. Walmart now manages more than 20 private label brands of its own that each drive more than $1 billion in annual sales, five of which are each generating more than $5 billion worth of yearly revenue. These in-house goods essentially sidestep the wholesaling stage of the procurement process, making them cheaper to put on store shelves than nationally branded merchandise.

Walmart's resilience as an investment, however, is rooted in far more than a careful refinement of how and where it sources its inventory.

The bigger-picture, philosophical bullish thesis

You could argue that Walmart's sheer size provides it with an unfair advantage over its competitors. And you'd be right. Investors don't want a fair fight, though. They want the companies they own to dominate their respective markets. Not only does this help keep competition in check, greater scale also allows an enterprise to operate more cost-effectively.

While e-commerce giant Amazon is now roughly the same size as Walmart in terms of total revenue, it's a somewhat misleading comparison. Less than half of Amazon's annual revenue stems from sales of physical products. The slightly bigger portion actually comes from subscription and service revenue, like Amazon Prime or its cloud computing business.

There's no denying that Walmart simply enjoys a physical reach that no brick-and-mortar competitor can match. Costco Wholesale only operates 890 locales, while Target's store count is less than 2,000. Given the U.S. Census Bureau's estimate that 84% of the country's retail spending is still done in store, this dominant market presence leaves Walmart very well-positioned for whatever the future holds on this front.

Bolstering this bullish argument is the fact that well over half of Walmart's business is groceries. This matters simply because -- regardless of any economic hardship -- people are going to need to eat. Many are going to lean on Walmart as their best bet for getting the most bang for their grocery buck, since the giant retailer is also better positioned than any other to push back on suppliers when its wholesale costs start to swell. The company's been doing exactly that for the past month, in fact.

Not only is Walmart likely to hold up to any brewing economic headwind, it might even thrive because of one. As Rainey commented at a recent investor event: "We see opportunities to accelerate share gains while maintaining flexibility to invest in price as tariffs are applied to incoming goods."

There's also the distinct possibility that the tariff war may end before it races out of control.

Now's the time to buy

This bullish argument begs the question: Why is this stock down as much as it is since February's peak? The right answer is also the most obvious one. That is, most investors are jumping to broad, sweeping conclusions based on rhetoric without knowing all the relevant facts. Had they known most of the information laid out above, the crowd might not be nearly as quick to dump Walmart stock.

Someone else's mistake can mean opportunity for you, though. Walmart was already a compelling long-term prospect, but given the likelihood of 2025 results that will be far better than recently presumed, the stock's a strong buy sooner rather than later.

The analyst community thinks so, anyway. It's calling for sales growth of more than 4% this year and the year after that, which is impressive given its size and the industry's usually slow movement. Despite recent disruption, the vast majority of this crowd also still considers Walmart stock a strong buy, with a consensus price target of $109.08 that's more than 20% above the stock's present price. That's certainly not a bad way to start out a new trade.

Should you invest $1,000 in Walmart right now?

Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $495,226!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $679,900!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 796% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 155% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 10, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Costco Wholesale, Target, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Walmart vs. Target

The stock market's sharp sell-off is testing investors' patience. The recent tariff implementations and pauses have created a lot of near-term uncertainty.

That's particularly true for global retailers like Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT) that sell goods and source materials in different countries. However, with overall stocks down, you can use this as a buying opportunity -- if the long-term fundamentals remain sound.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More »

Which one of these two retail giants offers better investment potential for those planning to buy and hold for the long haul?

Two people shopping in a store.

Image source: Getty Images.

Walmart

Walmart operates namesake stores in the U.S. and internationally. It also runs Sam's Club, a membership club with warehouses in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. The Walmart U.S. business accounted for 69% of last year's $676.3 billion in sales.

The business was founded on keeping costs and prices ultra-low, and that remains true. Management continues to invest heavily in technology that combines its physical stores with e-commerce to offer convenience and fast delivery.

For instance, almost all U.S. Walmart stores have same-day pickup and delivery. Management also launched Walmart+, a subscription service that offers free shipping, discounts on gas, and a more efficient checkout process, a few years ago.

The low prices and convenience continue to draw customers. The Walmart U.S. segment saw same-store sales (comps) increase 4.6% in its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter. Higher traffic contributed 2.8 percentage points. with increased spending accounting for the balance. This period ended on Jan. 31.

The company remains highly profitable, putting it in a good position to increase investments to stay ahead of the competition. Fourth-quarter operating income, adjusted for certain non-operating expenses and excluding foreign currency fluctuations, grew 9.4% to $7.9 billion.

Walmart's share price hasn't been immune from the recent stock market sell-off. The stock has dropped 0.8% in 2025 (through April 9) versus 7.2% for the S&P 500 index, although that index fell more during the recent market downturn.

That valuation has remained constant since the start of the year. The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37.

Target

Target sells a wide array of goods, including apparel, beauty, home furnishings, food/beverage, and household essentials. It aims to differentiate itself by offering merchandise under its own brands and those sold exclusively at its stores and website.

The company's sales have been hurt lately as consumers have focused on basic items in the wake of rising costs. Still, Target's fiscal fourth-quarter comps increased 1.5%, driven by higher traffic that contributed 2.1 percentage points. The amount customers spent dropped 0.6 percentage points. The period ended on Feb. 1

Target's gross margin contracted 0.4 percentage points to 26.2%. That's due in part to higher promotional activity and markdowns.

Although management has given a cautious outlook for the year, including flat comps, the higher traffic shows people still like to shop at Target. They're just spending less right now and are drawn to discounts. That's likely due to larger economic forces that will subside at some point.

Target's stock price has taken it on the chin. The share price has fallen nearly 28% this year. That's partly due to tariff implementations and the feared economic effect on Target's costs and prices that will impact short-term profitability.

The shares have become cheaper, however. The stock trades at a P/E of 11, down from 14 at the start of 2025.

Which retailer to choose?

I like both retailers. Walmart's ultra-low prices will always attract customers. It's particularly true during challenging economic times. That's why its share price has held up relatively well.

Target depends on differentiated merchandise, and its customers will likely trade down to lower-priced merchandise when tough times come. But over the long run, people will likely return to Target.

Based on Target's attractive valuation and favorable long-term outlook, I'd choose its stock over Walmart right now.

Should you invest $1,000 in Walmart right now?

Before you buy stock in Walmart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Walmart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $495,226!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $679,900!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 796% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 155% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 10, 2025

Lawrence Rothman, CFA has positions in Target. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Target and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

❌