When investors think of AI stocks, Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST) may not be the first that comes to mind. However, the company has a strong claim to the title. It's harnessed the power of machine learning and data science for a new credit platform that has been more accurate at assessing creditworthiness than conventional FICO scores, according to Upstart.

As a stock, Upstart has been one of the more volatile names in the market as the business has considerable potential, but it has also struggled to turn a profit in recent years. Plus, any credit business is inherently risky, since loans could go bad if the economy sours, or Upstart's credit partners could stop buying its loans, eliminating the funding it needs to operate.

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Upstart's latest earnings report offered more reasons to be optimistic. Its transaction volume jumped 102% in the first quarter to 240,706 with originations up 89% to $2.1 billion. Meanwhile, its conversion rate improved from 14% to 19.1% because of an update in its AI model that makes as many as 1 million predictions per applicant to determine whether to lend to the applicant and what interest rate to charge.

Overall, revenue jumped 67% to $213 million, and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) improved from a loss of $20.3 million to a profit of $42.6 million.

Now, several Wall Street analysts have turned bullish on Wall Street, and some see considerable upside to the stock.

Image source: Getty Images.

What Wall Street thinks about Upstart

According to Tipranks, of the 11 analysts that have rated Upstart in the last three months, four analysts rate it a buy and seven call it a hold. However, the average price target for the stock is $65.33, or a 39% upside on average.

Among the analysts that are most bullish on Upstart are Peter Christiansen of Citi, who rates the stock a buy and gives it a price target of $83; Dan Dolev of Mizuho, who gives it a buy rating and a price target of $83; and Kyle Peterson of Needham, who gives it a buy rating and a price target of $70.

Christiansen has noted Upstart's increasing interest from private credit managers and improving partner network. Dan Dolev recently reiterated a buy rating after double upgrading the stock last year in response to the company's improved profitability, and it's capturing the benefits from AI in its updated model. Kyle Peterson of Needham also sees an improving funding backdrop and balance sheet at Upstart driving the stock higher.

Is Upstart a buy?

Wall Street forecasts on their own aren't a good reason to buy the stock, but they can alert you to good buys. Upstart has its share of naysayers as well. Nearly 25% of the stock is sold short, and Goldman Sachs gave it a sell rating in February with a price target of $15.

However, Upstart's business is improving in multiple ways. In addition to the preceding numbers, the company is increasingly tapping into the auto and home loan markets, which represent the biggest addressable markets in front of it. In the first quarter, auto originations grew five times over the last year to $61 million, while home loans grew six times to $41 million. That still represents a small fraction of the company's business, but there is potential for it to get much larger.

Upstart's business model is also scalable. The tech platform fully automates more than 90% of loan applications and can therefore scale up to make more loans at a relatively low marginal cost. Operating expenses grew by just 11% in the first quarter even as fee-based revenue was up 34%.

Overall, Upstart's technology appears to give it a competitive advantage, and it's seeing momentum in customer demand and funding partnerships. If its momentum continues, its profit should rapidly improve.

With a long runway of growth, Upstart looks like a good buy.

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Jeremy Bowman has positions in Upstart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Upstart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Investors came in to Upstart's (NASDAQ: UPST) first-quarter earnings report hoping the company would maintain its momentum from the end of last year.

Its growth has accelerated thanks to a new artificial intelligence (AI) model, Model 18 or M18, that has significantly improved its conversion rate thanks to an even broader prediction set that includes approximately 1 million predictions per applicant, or six times its prior model.

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With those tailwinds behind it, Upstart's results in Q1 did not disappoint. Revenue jumped 67% to $213.4 million, which topped estimates at $201.3 million. Those results included 34% growth in revenue from fees to $185.5 million, and Upstart benefited from a decline in fair value adjustments on its loans, indicating better credit performance.

Underlying growth in its business was especially impressive as loan originations rose 102% to 240,706 loans, and total originations jumped 89% to more than $2.1 billion. The conversion rate continued to improve, rising from 14% to 19.1%, all signs that adoption is growing rapidly.

Its metrics on the bottom line also improved. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) improved from a loss of $20.3 million to a profit of $42.6 million. It nearly reported a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) profit, finishing the quarter with a loss of $2.4 million, up from a loss of $64.6 million in the quarter a year ago.

It reported an adjusted per-share profit of $0.30, ahead of the consensus at $0.17, and up from an adjusted per-share loss of $0.31 in the quarter a year ago.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why was Upstart down?

Despite the strong Q1 earnings report, Upstart essentially reiterated its full-year guidance untouched as it guided to revenue of $225 million for Q2, below the consensus at $226.3 million.

Wall Street tends to see a beat without a raise as a sign that the current momentum won't last, and investors sometimes punish growth stocks for that pattern. As a result, the stock was down 16% in after-hours trading on Tuesday.

While management did acknowledge the uncertainty in the economy, there wasn't anything in the guidance to indicate weakness. Meanwhile, a number of indicators in the business showed it continuing to strengthen.

Upstart is moving in the right direction

Upstart has diversified its business away from unsecured consumer loans in recent years as auto loans grew by five times to $61 million in the quarter and up 42% from Q4. Home loan origination jumped six times to $41 million, and management noted on the earnings call that its lending partners greatly prefer secured loans to unsecured loans, which bodes well for continued growth in the business.

Prior to the earnings release, the company announced a one-year strategic partnership with OnePay, a fintech majority owned by Walmart. Upstart said the partnership would help it market lending product to Walmart's customer base, a massive opportunity for the company. It also plans to offer co-branded products without OnePay, though it said it didn't expect the partnership to have a material impact on financial results this year.

Additionally, Upstart announced a forward-flow commitment from Fortress Investment Group, which agreed to purchase up to $1.2 billion in loans originated on Upstart, which will further diversify the company's base of lending partners and help ensure adequate funding for its loans.

Why Upstart's a buy

If the after-hours sell-off holds, Upstart now trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 31 based on adjusted earnings, and that number is likely to fall as analysts up their forecasts following the strong quarter.

Meanwhile, Upstart's revenue growth and the tailwinds in the large auto and home loan markets show it still has a significant growth runway in front of it.

Upstart's own proprietary data even shows the macroenvironment improving modestly, and the business is less at risk of turmoil in the credit market than it was in 2022 when interest rates surged, freezing borrower demand. With interest rates already high and Upstart's business now resilient, the company seems to be in good shape no matter what happens on the macrofront.

A recession could even be a positive for the company as it could lower interest rates.

Overall, Upstart's business is getting stronger, its technology is improving, and the valuation looks attractive. The company also has scheduled an "AI day" when it will present technology updates and discuss its business model and strategy.

Should you invest $1,000 in Upstart right now?

Before you buy stock in Upstart, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Upstart wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $623,103!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $717,471!*

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Jeremy Bowman has positions in Upstart. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Upstart and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.