Airlines are among the most discretionary sectors out there, tied closely to the health of the consumer. So, perhaps it is no surprise that the stocks are seeing an oversize reaction to reports suggesting key parties are moving to de-escalate the trade war gripping the U.S. economy.

Shares of JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ: JBLU) traded up 10% as of 10 a.m. ET, and shares of United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ: UAL), Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), American Airlines Group (NASDAQ: AAL), and Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) were all up more than 5%.

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Clear skies up ahead?

We are only halfway through airline earnings season, but the message from the companies that have reported is clear: The industry is not seeing a dramatic fall-off from near-record demand, but executives are anticipating declines in demand should tariffs eat into the economy and cut consumer purchasing power.

Historically, airlines have been a bad sector to invest in during a recession. Households struggling to pay bills and afford groceries are unlikely to book vacations.

On Wednesday, investors were buying in hopes a worst-case scenario could be avoided. The market is up big on reports that the White House is mulling cuts to steep tariffs on Chinese imports, a move that could lessen the blow on consumers and lower the odds the U.S. falls into a recession in the second half of 2025.

Is now the time to buy airline stocks?

Investors should proceed with caution from here. The market has been volatile of late, trading up and down based on the latest tariff headlines. It is dangerous to try to get ahead of rumors, and until there are actual moves to de-escalate, it is possible these gains could evaporate just as quickly as they materialized.

For those willing to accept the turbulence and look past whatever near-term noise might be on the horizon, Delta and United are the safest investment choices from this group. JetBlue and American have relatively high debt burdens and questions about their revenue models, and Southwest is in the process of eliminating consumer-friendly policies and could see a backlash in the quarters to come.

United execs sounded an optimistic tone about the quarters to come even with the headwinds the airline is currently facing. If those headwinds recede, the airline looks best-positioned to gain altitude from here.

Should you invest $1,000 in United Airlines right now?

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Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) reported first-quarter 2025 earnings on Wednesday, April 9, that matched or exceeded analysts' consensus expectations. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.46 came in ahead of estimates for $0.38 but came in below management's Jan. 10 guidance of $0.70 to $1.00. Adjusted operating revenue totaled $12.98 billion, meeting forecasts but falling short of Delta's planned revenue growth rate of 7% to 9%, achieving only 3.3%.

Overall, the quarter demonstrated solid performance amid challenging conditions but indicated opportunities for further improvement.

Source: Delta Air Lines. Note: Analyst consensus estimates for the quarter provided by FactSet. YOY = Year over year.

Overview of Delta Air Lines

Delta Air Lines is one of the largest airlines in the U.S., known for its comprehensive network of destinations and its commitment to operational reliability. The airline maintains strong connections across over 120 countries, supported by strategic alliances with major global carriers. Key competitive advantages include its premium cabins and a digital SkyMiles loyalty program, contributing significantly to revenue despite market fluctuations.

Delta is focused on sustaining its operational excellence, improving its fleet efficiency, and expanding its revenue streams. With rising fuel prices and competitive pressures, financial discipline and strategic capacity management are crucial for its future success.

Quarterly Highlights

Delta Air Lines' adjusted EPS of $0.46 in Q1 came in well below the $0.70 to $1.00 range anticipated by management. This discrepancy reflects lower-than-expected growth driven by domestic travel softness. Adjusted operating revenue growth of 3.3% also missed management guidance of 7% to 9% growth, indicating challenges. Key segments like international travel showed resilience with Pacific revenues increasing by 16%.

Operating margin was impacted, standing at 4.6%, below the 6% to 8% guidance. This signals cost pressures and softer domestic demand, affecting revenue per seat mile, an important industry metric that assesses efficiency in generating passenger revenue. Total revenue per available seat mile of 20.53 cents fell 2% year over year.

On the strategic front, Delta continued its efforts in cost management, improving its non-fuel cost growth by 2.6%. Debt reduction remained a priority, with adjusted net debt down by $1.1 billion from the previous quarter, reflecting ongoing financial resilience.

Looking Forward

Delta revised its capacity plans, suggesting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainty. This defensive measure underscores anticipated continued headwinds in demand, requiring strategic evaluation of growth opportunities versus conservative expansion. Importantly, the company has not reaffirmed its full-year earnings guidance set earlier this year, instead providing a narrower focus on quarterly targets with an EPS projection of $1.70 to $2.30 for the June quarter. This cautionary focus arises from shifting demand patterns and uncertain macroeconomic conditions, affecting profitability.

Investors should watch Delta's strategic revenue diversification and cost management efforts amidst ongoing uncertainties. Continued attention to its SkyMiles program and premium product offerings is expected. Additionally, shifts in capacity plans reflect management's strategic adaptability, positioning the airline for sustained performance when economic conditions stabilize.

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JesterAI is a Foolish AI, based on a variety of Large Language Models (LLMs) and proprietary Motley Fool systems. All articles published by JesterAI are reviewed by our editorial team, and The Motley Fool takes ultimate responsibility for the content of this article. JesterAI cannot own stocks and so it has no positions in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

• Airline stocks have been plummeting this year on fears of reduced demand.
• They were among the hardest hit by Trump's Wednesday tariff announcements.
• Analysts also expect ticket prices to rise for customers as a result of the sweeping tariffs.

Tariffs are spelling more bad news for airlines and passengers.

Even before Donald Trump's self-styled "Liberation Day" announcement, the big three airline stocks had fallen around a quarter in a month.

Analysts have already warned that airline customers are set to have less spending money while plane ticket prices rise. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America analysts said the effective tariff rate was about double what they expected.

With US companies paying the tariffs on items they import, prices are set to go up for Americans.

"The resulting hit to purchasing power could take real disposable personal income growth in 2Q-3Q into negative territory, and with it the risk that real consumer spending could also contract in those quarters," JPMorgan Chase's chief US economist Michael Feroli wrote in an analyst note.

Vacations aren't a necessity, so are something people can forego when they tighten their purse strings. Cruise and hotel stocks have dipped, too. Corporate travel is expected to drop as well, since the tariffs are designed to incentivize doing business at home.

Higher-than-expected tariffs have exacerbated an already dreary outlook for travel.

Delta Air Lines and United Airlines' share prices have fallen more than a third since the start of the year. American Airlines' is down 44%.

Stocks dipped on Tuesday after Jefferies analysts downgraded American Airlines and Delta Air Lines to Hold ratings.

They said consumer sentiment was at a four-year low and cited "swelling macro uncertainty." In other words, fewer people want to fly because of the state of the economy.

On Monday, Virgin Atlantic executives also warned of softening demand for Americans flying to the UK — although travel in the opposite direction remains at expected levels.

"We think that's quite a natural reaction to the general consumer uncertainty there is in the US at the minute," chief financial officer Oli Byers said in comments reported by several outlets.

The day after the tariffs were announced, the big three airline stocks dropped between 10% and 15% — compared to the broader S&P 500's 5% decline.

Airline ticket prices have been lower this year due to slower demand, but some analysts say they're set to get more expensive.

Airfares set to rise

Tariffs are set to hit planemakers with the costs ultimately being passed down to passengers.

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg told a Senate hearing Wednesday that 80% of its airplanes are sold to customers outside the US, and a fifth of the production materials are imported.

"Free trade is very important to us," he added.

Morningstar's analyst for aerospace and defense equities, Nicolas Owens, said: "Investors concerned that the new import tariffs might be devastating to US aerospace firms may overestimate the risk."

However, there is also the risk of retaliatory tariffs on exports. Boeing's share price fell more than 10% on Thursday.

While European rival Airbus has an assembly line in Alabama, it would still have to import parts there.

"Obviously there would be an increase of cost and most probably in price for the airlines, and therefore to the end customers," CEO Guillaume Faury said in February.

In a note Thursday, analysts at Vertical Research Partners also warned they expect airfares to get more expensive.

"Ultimately we see these cost increases being passed on to airlines, and the flying public, which logically will have a negative impact on passenger demand […] and airline profits," they wrote.

Business Insider attended a summit at Airbus' headquarters in Toulouse, France, last week. At the summit, executives spoke to reporters ahead of the tariff announcement.

"We are in an industry where I think tariffs will be very, very damaging," Faury said. "Probably more damaging to the US at first glance."

He also pointed to the effects of a 17-year dispute between the US and Europe over subsidies given to Boeing and Airbus, with tariffs imposed as a result.

"It was so bad for everybody that it came to a cease-fire," he said.

Airlines have already taken a hit as Canadians book fewer flights to the US. Europeans are also starting to lose interest in transatlantic travel, the CEO of hotel operator Accor told Bloomberg.

While airlines have yet to see a drop in demand on this route, the looming trade war could change that.