• Apple risks a 'BlackBerry Moment' if it doesn't embrace AI, a usually bullish analyst warns.
• BlackBerry's decline was due to its failure to pivot fast when a new tech wave arrived.
• Apple may be facing similarly difficult choices, as generative AI remakes the tech industry.

Do you remember the BlackBerry? If you're younger than 30, you probably think I'm talking about the fruit.

Nope. The BlackBerry was by far the most popular smartphone 20 years ago. Back in the mid-2000s, everyone used and loved its QWERTY keyboard and the ability to get emails instantly. Gasp!

They were actually really cool. I loved mine, and I was late to trade it for a new device called the Apple iPhone. You may have heard of this one!

BlackBerry was among the most valuable companies in the world and the pride of Canada, where it was founded. The stock peaked at more than $140 in May 2008, then plunged as consumers adopted the iPhone en masse over the ensuing years. BlackBerry shares trade at about $3.65 these days. That's epic value destruction of more than 97%.

What went so wrong? BlackBerry had an amazingly profitable existing business. Competing with Apple would have meant throwing away this formula for success and probably cratering revenue and income. It's very hard for a public company to pivot radically like this. Shareholders don't like it — they want steadily growing income, not wild swings and big risky bets.

So, BlackBerry stuck to its guns for a few years, and by the time it had to change, it was too late: Everyone was already addicted to their iPhones, not their "CrackBerries" (as BlackBerries used to be called).

Apple won the mobile revolution, hands down. Its stock has risen more than 3,000% since May 2008, and is now worth $3.33 trillion.

A new tech revolution has begun, though. Generative artificial intelligence is remaking the industry in radical ways, and there's concern among some on Wall Street that Apple could be facing its own "BlackBerry Moment" now.

This catchy phrase was in the title of a new research note on Friday by Dan Ives, a tech analyst at Wedbush Securities.

In a striking departure from his typically bullish tone, Ives issued a stark warning to Apple: Move aggressively into AI or risk becoming the next BlackBerry.

While rivals such as OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon surge ahead in AI innovation, Ives said Apple is "on a park bench drinking lemonade," watching, rather than getting in the race.

With 2.4 billion iOS devices and 1.5 billion iPhones in circulation, the company holds an unparalleled platform, but it risks squandering that lead without a bold AI play, Ives wrote.

The analyst outlined three strategic imperatives for Apple to avoid a BlackBerry moment:

• Acquire Perplexity: The AI-native search engine startup could serve as a cornerstone of a revitalized Siri. Ives called Perplexity's tech "some of the most impressive in the AI world" and argued a +$30 billion acquisition would be a small price relative to Apple's potential AI monetization upside. ("We are unaware of any M&A discussions that involve Perplexity," a spokesperson for the startup said.)
• Bring in AI Talent from the Outside: Apple's innovation pace has stagnated, Ives said, comparing recent product launches to reruns of "Back to the Future." He urged Apple to shake up its executive ranks with outside AI leaders, warning that the current team, including Tim Cook, is running in place.
• Double Down on Google's Gemini: Despite regulatory headwinds, Ives believes Apple must fully embrace Google's Gemini AI chatbot for deep integration into the iPhone ecosystem. OpenAI is not a viable long-term partner, he said, and time is running out for Apple to place its bets.

When Apple fanboys get upset at their beloved company, it's time to pay close attention.

The message is clear: Cupertino must stop watching the AI party from afar and start leading it. (I asked Apple for comment on all this on Friday. It didn't respond.)

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It's now clear that Apple plans to survive Donald Trump's trade war by playing to the president's ego.

On Wednesday, Trump announced that Apple would be exempt from a threatened 100 percent tariff on semiconductors that could have driven up the cost of iPhones globally, Reuters reported. In an apparent effort to secure this exemption, Apple promised to increase its total investment commitment in the US by $100 billion, while also gifting Trump a one-of-a-kind statue that Apple CEO Tim Cook had engraved with Trump's name.

It serves as a bizarre love letter to Trump's push to bring tech manufacturing into the US, despite Apple resisting that push for its most popular product.

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• Apple is going to spend another $100 billion investing in US facilities.
• That's on top of a $500 billion pledge the company made earlier this year.
• Is that a lot? Sort of. Is it a move to make iPhones in the US? Not at all.

At a White House event on Wednesday afternoon, Apple CEO Tim Cook announced plans to invest $100 billion in US manufacturing.

Is this a real plan, with real money? A bit of stagecraft designed to give Donald Trump a public win for his reshoring push? Or a way for Apple to keep on the right side of Trump tariffs that could cause great harm to the company?

Yes. And yes. And yes.

Some context:

• In February, Apple said it would invest $500 billion and hire 20,000 US employees over the next four years.
• Now Apple is going to add another $100 billion to that commitment.
• Apple spelled out how it is going to spend some of that money at the White House event, including a pledge to spend $2.5 billion expanding its work in a Corning plant in Kentucky, where it makes glass for iPhones and Apple Watches. Apple says that work will eventually ensure that all of its devices sold worldwide will use American glass (though it didn't spell out how much of that work was already being done in America).

But this isn't the first time Apple has announced a pledge like this. In 2021 — when Joe Biden was president — it announced a plan to invest $430 billion in the US over five years and hire 20,000 employees. Some of those plans involved new construction, like a new "engineering hub" in North Carolina. Others involved expansions of existing facilities, or construction that was already underway, like a $1 billion campus in Austin.

As Bloomberg notes, Apple's announcement from February was really an acceleration of its earlier plans — it meant Apple was planning to spend an extra $39 billion a year, and to increase its hiring plans by 1,000 people a year.

Using that same logic, Apple's Wednesday announcement means it is planning on spending another $25 billion a year above its earlier plans. (No word, yet, about any additional hiring, though Apple did say its work with Corning would increase the workforce there by 50%.)

So that's definitely some additional spending.

Will Apple make iPhones in the US?

Does that mean Apple is going to start making iPhones in the US, as Trump has demanded?

No. As we've discussed before, recreating the supply chain Apple would need to make iPhones in the US seems close to impossible. And certainly not something that Apple could pull off in a few years — if it even wanted to.

Cook was asked that question directly at the press conference, and was ready for it. "There's a lot of content in there from the United States," he argued, pointing to the glass deal and other elements made at least in part in America. But as far as actually putting that stuff together — which requires a complicated supply chain Cook spent years and billions overseeing? "That will be elsewhere for a while," he said.

Still, getting to stand next to the CEO of one of the world's most valuable companies, while that CEO says he's going to invest in America, is most definitely valuable to Trump, who was beaming throughout the event.

And it's not as if any particular number means much to Trump, who recently announced he was going to reduce drug prices by "1,500 percent," which is definitely not possible.

Trump is also flexible when it comes to announcements about Trump-directed spending in America. Like when he stood next to Cook during his first term and announced that Apple had opened a new plant in Texas at his behest. Also not true.

What does Apple get in return? It would most obviously like permanent relief from Trump's tariffs. So far, Trump has granted Apple some immunity from some of his tariffs on foreign manufacturing — but not all of them, which is why Apple has said it will have paid some $2 billion in tariffs over its last two quarters.

Apple and other tech companies are also hoping Trump will keep pushing on their behalf to beat down other countries' tech regulations. Apple is particularly vexed by the European Union, which has forced the company to do things like change its iPhone chargers and open up its App Store.

So yes: Apple is spending money in the US. And no: It's not exactly the story Donald Trump would like to tell.

• Google has quietly launched a film and TV production initiative called 100 Zeros.
• Google wants to promote its products and a positive image of tech, particularly to young people.
• The goal is to sell projects to studios, not put them on YouTube.

Google wants to use Hollywood to upgrade its cool factor.

The tech giant has quietly launched a new film and TV production initiative, Business Insider has learned.

The effort, called 100 Zeros, is a multiyear partnership with Range Media Partners, the talent firm and production company whose notable films include "A Complete Unknown" and "Longlegs." It's tasked with identifying projects that Google can help fund or produce. The goal is to get behind an array of scripted and unscripted films and TV shows. (The companies wouldn't comment on a number or timeframe.)

Google has a few goals with 100 Zeros. The company sees it as a way to get the creative community to adopt its newer tech products and services, like its Immersive View feature that lets you see things in 3D, spatial tools that blend the physical and virtual worlds, and AI.

Google also wants to promote a positive view of its products — and tech generally — through entertainment to young audiences by helping shape pop culture.

Last year, 100 Zeros quietly dipped a toe in the water, putting some marketing dollars behind an indie horror film from Neon, "Cuckoo." In exchange, 100 Zeros' logo was prominently shown in the opening credits. Google didn't seek any publicity for the move, but it was indicative of the alignments it wants: A celebrated indie studio ("Parasite," "Anora") and a movie aimed at Gen Z and starring Hunter Schafer, known for "Euphoria" and the "Hunger Games" franchise.

In another step in that direction, Google and Range announced a partnership this spring called "AI On Screen" to commission short films about AI, with the goal of making two into feature films. Here's how it described one of the shorts, "Sweetwater": "When the son of a late celebrity visits his childhood home, a piece of fan mail reveals a startling AI, forcing him to reconcile his mother's legacy."

"Through our continued partnership with Range, we aim to collaborate with the Hollywood creative community in a thoughtful and productive way, upkeeping our ongoing commitment to responsibly support creative expression and explore the possibilities of technology through storytelling," a Google spokesperson said in a statement.

Google wants to make Android cool

In projects where Google is involved early on, the company wouldn't mind if characters clutched Android phones instead of iPhones and used its features like "Circle to Search." That's provided the integration isn't forced. Product placement isn't 100 Zeros' main focus, however. Google has a separate effort with United Talent Agency for marketing partnerships like its recent ones with "The White Lotus" and "Wicked" to promote the Pixel.

One of the ways Google will judge the success of the initiative is how it impacts popular sentiment around the company's products and services. Google dominates the global mobile phone market, but is outsold by Apple in the US. Apple has gained a strong following with Gen Z with its luxury image and blue text bubbles that can make Android users feel left out. Its phones have become entrenched in pop culture, appearing in buzzy titles like "Succession" and "Knives Out." Piper Sandler's spring survey found 88% of US teens owned an iPhone.

Beyond Android, Google search is losing its hold on young people, who are increasingly going to AI or other platforms like Amazon and TikTok for answers to their questions.

Google isn't looking at YouTube as a distributor

Consumer brands are increasingly using Hollywood-style entertainment to spread their messages, as it's gotten harder to get people's attention with traditional ads. The interest is welcome in cash-strapped Hollywood.

A common approach by brands is to lean on established filmmakers and agencies to develop or produce projects. A handful of brands like Procter & Gamble and WeTransfer have gone further and hired in-house expertise. Google's efforts are similar to those of Waffle Iron Entertainment, a studio Nike set up to make original entertainment that aligns with the company's goals while operating at arm's length.

100 Zeros has a small dedicated staff: Penny Lin, a film producer at Range, and development execs Casey Durant and Tony Nguyen. Rachel Douglas, partner and manager at Range, oversees the relationship with Google. On the Google side, the point person is Jonathan Zepp, the managing director of emerging content experiences.

"This initiative is different in that it's staffed by full-time people who come out of Hollywood and are housed at and supported by Range," Douglas said of 100 Zeros.

Consumer brands' flirtation with films isn't guaranteed to last. Some have been halting or slowing film projects amid President Donald Trump's tariffs and attacks on DEI. Even before the tariff news hit, some corporations that had made commitments to the space — including Starbucks, Marriott, and Southwest Airlines — laid off marketers who worked in filmed entertainment as a part of larger corporate cuts, a reminder of the tenuous nature of the work.

One aspect of 100 Zeros that people might find surprising is that it's not looking to leverage YouTube as a primary distribution platform. YouTube has become a TV juggernaut and has been working to make itself a home for premium programming. But 100 Zeros isn't trying to recreate YouTube Originals, the platform's onetime stab at making original shows, or even use YouTube as the first stop for these projects. Instead, the goal is to sell projects to traditional studios and streamers like Netflix.