Stocks have always been viewed as the more aggressive investment that carry more risk but generate higher returns compared to safer assets like bonds. A traditional portfolio calls for 60% of capital allocated toward equities and 40% toward bonds. Younger investors are now encouraged to be more aggressive toward stocks earlier in their lives due to longer life expectancies and the higher cost of living.

But as most investors know, things don't always go as planned, and sometimes even the most unlikely of assets can outperform. After a sizable run over the past few years, driven by a myriad of different factors, a historically boring asset in the form of an exchange-traded fund is now up 610% since 2000 and is crushing the broader S&P 500 index. Let's take a look.

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The ultimate flight to safety

Several years ago, if you had told many investors that SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEMKT: GLD) would surpass $315 and an ounce of gold would surpass $3,400, they might have laughed. But that's exactly what has happened, thanks in particular to an incredibly strong couple of years for the commodity. Gold is up some 26% this year, 43% over the past 12 months, and about 88% over the last five years. It's also crushed the broader stock market since 2000.

^SPX data by YCharts

How has this happened? Well, there are several reasons, but a big one has actually been building for a few decades -- and that is the U.S. budget. The U.S. has taken on a cascading amount of debt since the turn of the century, fueled by big events like the Sept. 11 attacks, the Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In fiscal 2024, the government ran a roughly $1.8 trillion fiscal deficit, meaning it spent that much more than the revenue it collected. Total debt has now surpassed an astounding $36 trillion and interest payments consume an increasing amount of the budget each year, taking away funds that could otherwise be spent on government programs and initiatives.

Bond holders have taken notice and grown increasingly concerned about U.S. finances. S&P Global Ratings downgraded the long-term credit rating of the U.S. in 2011, and Fitch followed that up with a downgrade in 2023, both of which cited fiscal concerns. U.S. bonds are still considered extremely safe and regularly purchased in Treasury auctions, and the U.S. dollar is still considered the reserve currency of the world. However, there is more caution than there once was.

In fact, central banks are buying far fewer U.S. Treasury bonds than they used and instead piling into gold. According to The World Gold Council, central banks collectively purchased over $1 trillion worth of gold in 2024. It's the third year that demand has surpassed $1 trillion and the 15th straight year in which central banks have been net buyers of gold.

A report from State Street in 2024 noted that U.S. Treasury holdings among foreign official institutions fell from $4.2 trillion in early 2020 to $3.8 trillion in early 2024, partly due to foreign central banks diversifying their reserves. The U.S. Federal Reserve also started conducting quantitative tightening, which essentially involves selling bonds to take cash out of the economy. The private sector now holds the bulk of Treasuries in foreign markets, but these investors can be more temperamental and demand higher yield if they deem the U.S. government to be on shaky financial footing.

This seems to be the case amid President Donald Trump's tariff saga, which many believe could hurt growth if tariffs are left in place. Longer-term Treasury yields have shot higher and diverged from shorter-term notes and bills.

Some exposure to Gold is a good idea

Although gold is on a crazy run, I'm certainly not telling investors to sell all of their stocks and pile into gold. Between 1990 and 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average still widely outperformed gold and most still believe that equities will win out long term.

However, not only does gold perform well during stressed economic periods, it's also considered a hedge against inflation. Some investors like billionaire Paul Tudor Jones have previously said that the U.S. is essentially going to have to inflate its way out of this current debt situation, which is why "all roads lead to inflation." So, in this regard, it makes sense for a diversified portfolio to have some exposure to gold, perhaps in the form of SPDR Gold Shares.

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For a majority of American retirees, Social Security provides more than half of their income. Some live on the program's benefits alone. But most U.S. seniors supplement those benefits with their retirement savings.

Built into the program is a regulation that boosts the size of beneficiaries' payments every year via a cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) that is intended to help Social Security benefits maintain their purchasing power in the face of inflation.

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However, many argue that the metric used to calculate how large those adjustments should be doesn't fully reflect how rising prices impact seniors, and that, as a result, those COLAs are not keeping pace with real-world inflation.

While I'm still far away from retirement, I'm not counting on Social Security to single-handedly support me once I get there, nor am I expecting its COLAs to fully cushion my finances against inflation. Here's what I'm doing to combat that future inflation instead.

The reality of Social Security COLAs

Each year's COLA is calculated based on the U.S. inflation rate during July, August, and September of the previous year -- so, for example, however much the Consumer Price Index rises in the third quarter of 2025, that's how much benefits will get boosted starting in January 2026. While that may sound straightforward, many experts say benefits are gradually losing their purchasing power.

A 2024 study conducted by the nonpartisan Senior Citizens League (SCL) found that the average retiree's Social Security benefits in 2024 had roughly 80% of their 2010 purchasing power, and asserted that the average benefit would need to be boosted by $4,443 per year to bring it back to 2010's level.

One reason for this is that, by law, the Social Security Administration (SSA) uses the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W) to calculate COLAs. However, the SCL believes the basket of products and services that the CPI-W is based on doesn't align well with what retirees actually spend their money on. Instead, the SCL would like to see COLAs calculated using the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E).

The SCL also points out that COLAs lagged behind annual inflation rates in eight of the last 15 years, largely because they are based on price data from a single quarter. Even minor gaps between COLAs and the actual rate of inflation can compound over time into significant losses of purchasing power for beneficiaries.

Image source: Getty Images.

Keeping your finances ahead of inflation

All that said, there are actions that people of all ages can take to help cushion their retirement finances against the inevitable impacts of inflation. One thing I am doing is investing as much money as I can. This does not involve high-stakes day trading or a complex options strategy. Rather, I invest money each month through a tax-advantaged retirement account and a standard brokerage account.

The great Warren Buffett has said many times that over time, the impact of compound growth is so powerful that it can make mediocre investors rich. Investors should be sure to gradually adjust their asset allocations based on their age and how long they have until retirement, but steady and consistent investing should prove to be a winning strategy.

I'm planning on working for at least another 30 years, which allows me to comfortably load up more on stocks and be more aggressive with my choices. However, when my retirement approaches, I plan to dial that back and shift more of my portfolio into less volatile assets so that I'm less exposed to the short-term gyrations of the market during the period when I'll be regularly drawing down on those funds.

Another good strategy is to try and manage your expenses and cut when you can. One thing I do each month is budget out my salary and how much I think I am going to spend. I also carefully track my progress because unexpected expenses arise.

I try and save discretionary purchases closer to the end of my credit card cycle, so I know exactly where I am at and how much I have left to work with. Coming in below my monthly budget for even three to six months of the year goes a long way because it's extra money to either invest or adds a cushion for unexpected expenses later in the year.

Finally, it can be good to practice some austerity each year. What subscriptions can you cancel? Can you go out to lunch or dinner a few times less each month? Are there material items you can live without? Can you buy certain household items in bulk? It may not seem like it at the time, but all of these little items can go a long way over a few years.

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Things have gone from bad to worse this year for the artificial intelligence (AI) chip king Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). It all started with the emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese start-up that used less advanced Nvidia chips to build a chatbot that could rival OpenAI's ChatGPT, supposedly at a fraction of the cost. This made some investors question what AI infrastructure spending might ultimately look like at a time when valuations across the industry were sky high.

Then, Nvidia had to deal with the threat of tariffs since the company sources a lot of its chips from Taiwan. Although Trump has excluded semiconductors from his tariffs, the administration just dealt another blow to Nvidia stock.

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Nvidia's latest roadblock

On April 15 after the market close, Nvidia disclosed in a filing that the U.S. government had informed the company it would need to obtain a license to export its H20 chips to China, including Hong Kong and Macao. The government told Nvidia the purpose of this restriction is to prevent China from obtaining parts it could use to build a supercomputer. As a result, Nvidia said it expects to take a $5.5 billion charge in its fiscal 2026 first quarter due to H20 chip inventory, purchase commitments, and associated reserves.

Nvidia has been dealing with increased export restrictions to China since the Biden administration. In fact, the company created the H20 chip, which trains AI models less quickly than some of the company's most advanced chips, in order to comply with previous restrictions. Trump's latest order is likely tied to the tense relations between the U.S. and China, but considering these actions have now been building through multiple administrations, it's also possible this export restriction may outlast the current trade war. Nvidia stock is down roughly 24% year to date.

During an appearance on CNBC, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives referred to the new restrictions as a "blockade" by the U.S. government and the "first shot across the bow." He said the near-term effect is that Wall Street analysts are likely to model zero revenue from China for Nvidia this year and take earnings projections down 10%. In fiscal 2025, Nvidia generated about $17.1 billion in revenue from China, or about 13% of its top line.

Can Nvidia recover?

The export restrictions and continued uncertainty stemming from the trade war will have negative near-term impacts on the company from a margin and earnings perspective. That said, much of the sell-off this year already reflects this headwind. However, analysts largely remain bullish on Nvidia as the best-in-class artificial intelligence chipmaker in an AI industry that is still in the early innings of its growth.

Sure, the total addressable market might be smaller right now, but other chip players like AMD are facing similar challenges. Meanwhile, Nvidia's latest-generation Blackwell chip generated $11.0 billion in revenue last quarter, "the fastest product ramp in [the] company's history."

CEO Jensen Huang is already talking about the company's next chip, the Vera Rubin, which will be faster than Blackwell and could be ready by 2026. After that, Nvidia has plans for even better offerings in 2028.

The stock now trades at 23 times forward earnings estimates, near its lowest level in two years. It could be rough sledding for the industry this year, but if you can take a long-term view, this is the time to start accumulating shares. Nvidia can eventually reclaim its previous high of $153 per share, implying significant upside from current levels.

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Shares of the large lender Capital One (NYSE: COF) were trading nearly 5% higher at noon today. The company reported its first-quarter earnings results after the market closed yesterday, delivering an earnings beat but a slight miss on revenue.

Solid earnings and merger approval

Capital One reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.06, well ahead of analyst estimates. However, revenue of $10 billion came up slightly short of estimates. Meanwhile, credit metrics held up well, with expected loan losses and 30-plus-day delinquencies falling from the previous quarter.

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Furthermore, Capital One recently received regulatory approval for its pending acquisition of Discover Financial Services. The acquisition will add a highly coveted payments arm to Capital One's repertoire while also bringing over a large consumer lending portfolio that will pair nicely with Capital One's current business.

On the earnings call, Capital One's CEO Richard Fairbank said the company expects to achieve the $2.7 billion of network and cost synergies it laid out when initially announcing the acquisition, which is now expected to close on May 18.

Gaining a significant moat

Overall, Capital One's earnings came in solid. While the company is certainly vulnerable to an economic downturn, management is experienced and knows how to navigate choppy waters.

Closing the Discover deal and adding a global payments network is a significant achievement for Capital One. It also makes the company that much more of a compelling buy because there aren't that many companies that can run a payments business at global scale, and this performance won't be easy for competitors to replicate.

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Discover Financial Services is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Discover Financial Services. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Shares of artificial intelligence infrastructure company CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) were trading roughly 7% higher, as of 11:05 a.m. ET today. The stock rose along with the broader market, which surged due to positive macro and tariff-related news. It also comes after numerous analysts recently issued bullish ratings on the company.

Wall Street likes what they see

At least a dozen analysts kicked off coverage of CoreWeave yesterday, with seven assigning buy or equivalent ratings and five saying hold. The company runs data centers with Nvidia's graphics processing units, specifically for companies looking to run AI applications without having to build out the infrastructure themselves.

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CoreWeave had arguably been the most hyped initial public offering of the year, but disappointed in its debut, pricing below its target of $40 per share. AI stocks have largely disappointed this year and CoreWeave's stock has been volatile since going public. Still, many analysts see a lot of runway ahead.

"We believe we're still in the very early innings of this build-out for AI, and CoreWeave being one of the few who has been able to scale and host AI compute reliably, is positioned well to capture this opportunity," Jefferies analyst Jeffrey Thill said in his initiation report. "While there are concerns over the durability of CRWV's business model, we believe that the unrelenting appetite for AI compute minimizes the downside risks."

An interesting way to play AI

CoreWeave offers an interesting way to play the AI trade because it makes it easier for companies to delve into AI. Right now, Coreweave's customer base is heavily concentrated, which does present a risk.

But if you believe AI is the future, then CoreWeave should be a part of that future. However, the company already has a high market cap and there could be several bumps along the way in the AI journey. For this reason, I'd recommend keeping positions in CoreWeave smaller for now.

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Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Jefferies Financial Group and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Two days after President Donald Trump issued a 90-day pause on higher tariff rates for most countries except China, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the "economy is facing considerable turbulence," citing concerns of trade wars, persistent inflation, and fiscal deficits. In JPMorgan's first-quarter earnings call this morning, Dimon placed the odds of a recession at a 50-50 coin flip.

Yet despite his ongoing concerns about the economy and the administration's trade negotiations, Dimon said he's less concerned about a recession in the current climate and has other things on his mind during this economic cycle for one reason, in particular.

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JPMorgan is well prepared for economic turbulence

If you were to block out all the noise and focus on JPMorgan's first-quarter earnings, one might simply see business as usual. The bank beat analyst estimates on earnings and revenue and actually slightly lifted its guidance for net interest income, one of the primary sources of revenue for most banks. Meanwhile, credit came in solid, with stable net charge-offs and lower nonperforming assets in the first quarter than the prior quarter. The bank built its credit reserves by about $1 billion, half the amount it did in the previous quarter.

Still, Dimon cautioned against reading too much into the backward-looking results and forecast. "We should have not given you that forecast. We don't know what the number's going to be. I would say it's a short-term number and based on what's happening today, there's a wide range of potential outcomes," he said. The guidance alludes to some things that are mechanical, like how loan losses flow through a bank. They don't just happen overnight. First, they are marked delinquent, and it can take months until they are actually ruled as a loss.

Dimon also said he expects analysts to eventually reduce their earnings forecasts for the broader benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and pencil in zero growth, down from an earlier projection of about 10%, which they have since lowered to 5% growth.

Dimon is not worried about JPMorgan navigating a recession, saying the bank has plenty of capital and liquidity to deal with whatever is thrown its way. He also noted the bank added $15 billion to its credit reserves in two months during the COVID-19 pandemic, only to release an equivalent amount of reserves several months later, partially due to the forward-looking way banks must now account and prepare for loan losses.

JPMorgan Chase also ended the first quarter with a 15.4% common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio, which compares a bank's core capital to its risk-weighted assets such as loans. This is the capital banks lean on to cover unexpected loan losses. JPMorgan's ratio of 15.4% is 300 basis points higher than when the pandemic started, which equates to billions of dollars of additional capital.

The big concern is the future of trade

Dimon's main concern seemed to be the current state of the economy and what's going on with tariffs and a looming trade war. As of midday Friday, U.S. tariffs on China amount to 145%, while China said it would retaliate with total tariffs of 125%.

Obviously, if you look at our numbers, we have the margins and capability to get through just about anything.... But guys, this is different, OK? This is different. [It's about] safety and freedom for democracy. That is the most important thing. I really almost don't care fundamentally about what the economy does in the next two quarters. That isn't that important... the China issue is a major issue. I don't know how that's going to turn out. You know, we obviously have to follow the law of the land, but, you know, it's a significant change that we've never seen in our lives.

Dimon also touched about the potential impacts of JPMorgan's status as a global player and how embedded it is in other countries. "I do think some clients or some countries will feel differently about American banks," he said. However, Dimon was also hopeful that the Trump administration will be able to strike trade deals that will ultimately be good for the country and offer clarity in the coming months.

He also tried to clarify past comments from earlier this year about tariffs and how he believes in them from a national security perspective, using them to protect things like rare earth materials, medical ingredients such as penicillin, and semiconductors. But that's a small part of global trade overall.

Ultimately, I think Dimon has a similar view as most investors right now, who are still struggling to see the bigger picture once everything shakes out. With Trump pausing the wide-ranging package of tariffs he announced earlier this month and showing a willingness to negotiate, the worst-case scenario seems less likely. But what will global trade ultimately look like? How will other countries view the U.S. as a reliable trade partner following this recent series of events? And how will new trade agreements and whatever tariffs end up sticking impact the economy? It's a lot to digest in a short period of time.

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Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $496,779!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $659,306!*

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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Congress recently confirmed President Donald Trump's pick, Dr. Mehmet Oz, to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Medicare and Medicaid provide healthcare insurance to an estimated 136 million Americans, with Medicare serving citizens 65 and older and Medicaid covering lower-income populations. The appointment comes as healthcare remains expensive and out of reach for many Americans, and as Republicans try to figure out ways to improve the country's fiscal situation.

Oz previously served as the vice chair and professor of surgery at Columbia University, and also directed the Cardiovascular Institute and Complementary Medicine Program at the NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital. He's also published five best-selling books, and hosted his own television show and radio talk show.

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Here is what he's said so far about the Medicare and Medicaid programs.

What Dr. Oz said (or didn't say) about Medicaid cuts

Both Medicare and Medicaid have been big topics of conversation this year. The programs are enormously costly at a time when the U.S. government just ran a $1.8 billion deficit in fiscal year 2024, meaning it's spending more than the revenue it collects annually. Total U.S. debt now exceeds $36 trillion.

In late February, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a budget resolution that directed the agency overseeing Medicaid to find $880 billion in savings over the next decade. Many surmise this wouldn't be possible without cuts to Medicaid. Although Trump supported the resolution, he also publicly said that programs like Medicare and Medicaid would not be cut. Senate Republicans, however, have shown some pushback on potential actions that could lead to cuts to Medicaid.

So far, Oz has been tight-lipped on what he thinks about potential cuts to Medicaid, dodging questions during his hearings about the proposals. "I cherish Medicaid," he said, but it must be "viable at every level."

He did provide some comments on past changes to the program, such as its expansion under Obamacare. In one of his hearings, Oz said he supports work requirements for receiving Medicaid coverage, although he doesn't necessarily think paperwork should be a barrier for enrollment. He also said that the program was expanded without providing more resources to doctors, and that doctors don't like the program due to its lower payments.

These problems, among others, have left the program at a critical juncture. "We have to make some important decisions to improve the quality of care," said Oz, according to CBS.

Image source: Getty Images.

Thoughts on Medicare Advantage and Biden's changes

Medicare Advantage ("Part C") has long been controversial. The program allows private insurance companies to work with the government to provide all other parts of Medicare (A, B, and D) to citizens. Frequent complaints about Medicare Advantage allege that private insurance companies take advantage of the program, by cherry-picking healthier or younger patients and diagnosing patients with more issues in order to receive higher payouts from the government.

"There's a new sheriff in town," Oz said, according to The Wall Street Journal. He was critical of practices by insurance companies that overdiagnose: "I pledge if confirmed I will go after it." However, some senators felt uncomfortable with Oz's past on Medicare Advantage, because he has filmed videos on YouTube promoting the program. In 2020, he also penned an op-ed suggesting that Medicare Advantage could be used to provide healthcare to everyone, while putting the nation's healthcare system on a sounder fiscal footing.

Oz does seem supportive of work that CMS began under former President Joe Biden thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, which let the agency begin negotiating prices on drugs frequently covered by Medicare and Medicaid.

In 2023, CMS negotiated lower prices on 10 drugs frequently used under Medicare and Medicaid that were expensive for consumers. Earlier this year, negotiations on another 15 drugs were announced. These negotiations are expected to save Americans billions of dollars in out-of-pocket expenses once they go into effect, starting next year.

Of the price negotiation program, Oz said: "It's the law. I'm going to defend it and use it."

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If you're like most Americans, you're a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known "Social Security secrets" could help ensure a boost in your retirement income. For example: one easy trick could pay you as much as $22,924 more... each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we're all after. Simply click here to discover how to learn more about these strategies.

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