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Better Buy Now: Gold at $3,500 or an S&P 500 Index Fund?

The price of gold is hitting new all-time highs -- surpassing $3,500 per ounce. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is in a correction. Some investors may be wondering if it is better at the moment to buy the dip in the S&P 500 or ride the gold wave higher.

Below I'll discuss why gold is doing so well, different ways to invest in gold -- including through an exchange-traded fund (ETF) -- and if gold is a better buy than an S&P 500 index fund.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More Β»

Gold bars stacked on top of U.S. $100 bills.

Image source: Getty Images.

Gold is piling on the gains

Gold prices are up over 30% year to date at the time of this writing, compared to a 12.3% sell-off in the S&P 500. Its price performance also slightly beat the S&P 500 in 2024.

Gold has been so hot that it's up more than the S&P 500 over the last three-year, five-year, and 10-year periods -- although the S&P 500 is beating it over the last five-year and 10-year periods when you account for dividends reinvested.

Still, gold's torrid run-up may come as a surprise, especially given the strong gains in the S&P 500 led by megacap growth stocks. It wasn't long ago that investors questioned when the first U.S. company would surpass $1 trillion in market cap. Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia all closed out 2024 with market caps over $3 trillion.

Gold has made most of its gains over the S&P 500 during the last three years (there were two major sell-offs in the S&P 500 -- in 2022 and now in 2025) thanks to its steady rise in that time. Even with dividends included, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is massively underperforming the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEMKT: GLD) fund over the last three years.

GLD Total Return Level Chart

Data by YCharts.

The S&P 500 generally is driven higher by earnings and investor sentiment, and higher earnings justify higher stock prices. When sentiment is positive, investors may be willing to pay more for stocks, based on future earnings expectations.

Gold is based on supply and demand. It's a commodity, not a company.

Lower interest rates can reduce borrowing costs and drive gold prices higher. However, geopolitical uncertainty is an even greater catalyst for higher gold prices.

Tariff tensions, the threat of trade wars, and President Donald Trump's attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell can weaken confidence in U.S. markets and potentially jeopardize their credibility. As a result, fearful investors around the world may turn away from U.S. stocks toward gold.

Another driving factor is the People's Bank of China -- the largest official sector buyer of gold in 2023 and 2024. Reports indicate that the central bank boosted its gold reserves for the fifth consecutive month in March.

In sum, there are valid near-term factors driving gold prices higher. However, that doesn't mean investors should dump stocks in favor of gold.

Buying gold versus equity ETFs

Buying gold through jewelry, coins, or bullion comes with storage and security risks. The most straightforward and liquid way to buy and sell gold is through an ETF, such as the SPDR Gold Shares.

The fund uses a custodian that holds physical gold on its behalf, with the fund passing along a 0.4% expense ratio as a fee for its services. By comparison, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF charges a mere 0.03% expense ratio.

The better buy now depends on your investment objectives and existing holdings. If you're looking to add a new asset class to your portfolio that can perform well, even if geopolitical tensions persist, then gold could be worth a closer look. However, if you're looking to invest in a variety of companies under the simplicity of one tradable ticker, then an S&P 500 index fund may be a better fit.

Another factor worth considering is what makes up the S&P 500. A whopping 35% of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is invested in just 10 companies -- Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Berkshire Hathaway, Broadcom, Tesla, and JPMorgan Chase. If you already own sizable positions in these companies, then buying an S&P 500 index fund may not achieve the level of diversification you're looking for. There are plenty of low-cost ETFs out there that don't include these megacap names or are less top-heavy.

However, if you're looking for broad-based exposure to the market, then an S&P 500 index fund is a good starting point.

Integrating gold into a diversified portfolio

Gold has been on a tear in recent years, which has bridged the gap between gold's gains and the S&P 500 over the last decade. However, for most investors, it's probably best that gold serve more as a role player in a diversified portfolio, rather than the focal point.

Gold could fall or underperform the S&P 500 if the supply/demand imbalance changes. It's also more difficult to analyze because it isn't based on business fundamentals.

Another factor worth considering is that there aren't dividends on gold ETFs, whereas S&P 500 index funds and plenty of other equity-based ETFs have dividends, which provide passive income no matter what the market is doing.

Ultimately, the amount of gold to include in a portfolio depends on your risk tolerance and what you already own. Investors with ultra-long-term time horizons may be better off keeping gold exposure to a minimum, especially given the long-term opportunity cost of investing in gold instead of the stock market. However, the near-term catalysts for gold are undeniable, so it makes sense that gold is crushing the S&P 500 year to date.

Should you invest $1,000 in SPDR Gold Trust right now?

Before you buy stock in SPDR Gold Trust, consider this:

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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Daniel Foelber has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan Chase, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom and recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Meet the Historically Boring Asset That Has Risen 610% Since 2000 and Crushed the S&P 500 Index

Stocks have always been viewed as the more aggressive investment that carry more risk but generate higher returns compared to safer assets like bonds. A traditional portfolio calls for 60% of capital allocated toward equities and 40% toward bonds. Younger investors are now encouraged to be more aggressive toward stocks earlier in their lives due to longer life expectancies and the higher cost of living.

But as most investors know, things don't always go as planned, and sometimes even the most unlikely of assets can outperform. After a sizable run over the past few years, driven by a myriad of different factors, a historically boring asset in the form of an exchange-traded fund is now up 610% since 2000 and is crushing the broader S&P 500 index. Let's take a look.

Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More Β»

The ultimate flight to safety

Several years ago, if you had told many investors that SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEMKT: GLD) would surpass $315 and an ounce of gold would surpass $3,400, they might have laughed. But that's exactly what has happened, thanks in particular to an incredibly strong couple of years for the commodity. Gold is up some 26% this year, 43% over the past 12 months, and about 88% over the last five years. It's also crushed the broader stock market since 2000.

^SPX Chart

^SPX data by YCharts

How has this happened? Well, there are several reasons, but a big one has actually been building for a few decades -- and that is the U.S. budget. The U.S. has taken on a cascading amount of debt since the turn of the century, fueled by big events like the Sept. 11 attacks, the Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In fiscal 2024, the government ran a roughly $1.8 trillion fiscal deficit, meaning it spent that much more than the revenue it collected. Total debt has now surpassed an astounding $36 trillion and interest payments consume an increasing amount of the budget each year, taking away funds that could otherwise be spent on government programs and initiatives.

Bond holders have taken notice and grown increasingly concerned about U.S. finances. S&P Global Ratings downgraded the long-term credit rating of the U.S. in 2011, and Fitch followed that up with a downgrade in 2023, both of which cited fiscal concerns. U.S. bonds are still considered extremely safe and regularly purchased in Treasury auctions, and the U.S. dollar is still considered the reserve currency of the world. However, there is more caution than there once was.

In fact, central banks are buying far fewer U.S. Treasury bonds than they used and instead piling into gold. According to The World Gold Council, central banks collectively purchased over $1 trillion worth of gold in 2024. It's the third year that demand has surpassed $1 trillion and the 15th straight year in which central banks have been net buyers of gold.

A report from State Street in 2024 noted that U.S. Treasury holdings among foreign official institutions fell from $4.2 trillion in early 2020 to $3.8 trillion in early 2024, partly due to foreign central banks diversifying their reserves. The U.S. Federal Reserve also started conducting quantitative tightening, which essentially involves selling bonds to take cash out of the economy. The private sector now holds the bulk of Treasuries in foreign markets, but these investors can be more temperamental and demand higher yield if they deem the U.S. government to be on shaky financial footing.

This seems to be the case amid President Donald Trump's tariff saga, which many believe could hurt growth if tariffs are left in place. Longer-term Treasury yields have shot higher and diverged from shorter-term notes and bills.

Some exposure to Gold is a good idea

Although gold is on a crazy run, I'm certainly not telling investors to sell all of their stocks and pile into gold. Between 1990 and 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average still widely outperformed gold and most still believe that equities will win out long term.

However, not only does gold perform well during stressed economic periods, it's also considered a hedge against inflation. Some investors like billionaire Paul Tudor Jones have previously said that the U.S. is essentially going to have to inflate its way out of this current debt situation, which is why "all roads lead to inflation." So, in this regard, it makes sense for a diversified portfolio to have some exposure to gold, perhaps in the form of SPDR Gold Shares.

Should you invest $1,000 in SPDR Gold Trust right now?

Before you buy stock in SPDR Gold Trust, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and SPDR Gold Trust wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $591,533!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $652,319!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 859% β€” a market-crushing outperformance compared to 158% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks Β»

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 21, 2025

Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends S&P Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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