In March 2020, I outlined where I thought tech giant Nvidia's business and stock would be in five years, or in March 2025. It's now a little past the five-year mark, so how did I do?

Overall, I'd give myself a B or a B+. I was mostly correct in my business predictions and accurate about what investors care about the most, the stock price: "I feel very comfortable predicting that Nvidia stock will solidly outperform the market over the next half decade," I wrote.

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Indeed, from March 1, 2020 (when my five-year predictions article published) through March 1, 2025, Nvidia stock's total return was 1,760% -- nearly 15 times the S&P 500's return of 118%. In other words, Nvidia stock turned a $1,000 investment into a whopping $18,600 over this five-year period. (Nvidia stock's five-year return through the date of this writing, June 4, is a little lower, as the chart below shows. Shares are up since March 1; it's the change in the 2020 start date that slightly lowers their current five-year return.)

Nvidia stock's fantastic performance has largely been driven by the incredible demand for the company's graphics processing units (GPUs) and related technology that enable artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities.

Prediction 1: CEO Jensen Huang will still be leading the company

Status: Correct.

In March 2020, I wrote that "as long as [Huang] stays healthy, the odds seem in favor of his still being at Nvidia's helm in five years."

For context, Jensen Huang, who co-founded the company in 1993, turned 62 in February, according to public records.

Nvidia investors should certainly hope that Huang remains the company's leader for some time. As I wrote in June 2024:

Nvidia is many years ahead of the competition in AI-enabling technology thanks to Huang's foresight. Starting more than a decade ago, he began to steadily use profits from Nvidia's once-core computer gaming business to position the company to be in the catbird seat when the "AI Age" truly arrived.

Prediction 2: Nvidia will still be the leading supplier of graphics cards for computer gaming

Status: Correct.

Here's part of what I wrote in the March 2020 article:

Nvidia dominates the market for discrete graphics processing units (GPUs) -- the key component in graphics cards for desktop computer gaming. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the company controlled 68.9% of this market.

Nvidia has increased its leadership position over the last five years. In the fourth quarter of 2024, it had an 82% share of the desktop discrete GPU market, compared with longtime rival Advanced Micro Devices' 17% share, according to Jon Peddie Research. Intel, which entered this market in 2022, had a 1% share.

Growth in Nvidia's gaming market platform will be covered below.

Prediction 3: The global gaming market will continue its robust growth

Status: Correct.

In March 2020, I wrote: "In 2025, the gaming market should be much bigger [relative to 2020]."

By all counts -- the number of global gamers, total computer gaming market revenue, and computer gaming PC revenue -- the computer gaming market has grown solidly over the last five years.

And Nvidia has benefited nicely from this growth. In fiscal year 2020 (ended late January 2020), the company's gaming market platform generated revenue of $5.52 billion. In fiscal 2025 (ended in late January), this platform's revenue was $11.35 billion. This increase amounts to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.5%.

This is strong growth for such a huge market. It might not seem so only because Nvidia's data center market platform's growth has been phenomenal over this same period.

In fiscal 2020, gaming was Nvidia's largest platform, accounting for 51% of its total revenue. In fiscal 2025, gaming was its second-largest platform behind data center, contributing about 9% of its total revenue.

Prediction 4: Nvidia's GPUs will still be the gold standard for AI training

Status: Correct.

In March 2020, I wrote:

The company's GPU-based approach to accelerating computing is considered the gold standard for DL [deep learning, the dominant type of AI] training, the first step in the two-step DL process. [The second step is inferencing.] This statement is extremely likely to hold true in 2025, in my opinion.

Since 2020, both AMD and Intel have launched GPUs for AI-powered data centers, but Nvidia's grip on this market -- which is growing like wildfire -- remains tight. IoT Analytics, a technology market research firm, estimates Nvidia had a 92% share of the data center GPU market in 2024.

As an added plus, since 2020, Nvidia's GPUs have gone from having very little share of the AI inferencing chip market to having the largest chunk of this market. Inferencing is the running of an AI application.

In fiscal 2020, Nvidia's data center platform's revenue was $2.98 billion. It skyrocketed to $115.2 billion in fiscal 2025, equating to about a 107% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). This amazing growth powered the data center to account for 88% of Nvidia's total revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 27% in fiscal 2020.

Prediction 5: The legalization of driverless vehicles will turbocharge its auto platform's growth

Status: My timeline was too optimistic.

In March 2020, I wrote: "In 2025, fully autonomous vehicles should be legal -- or very close to being so -- across the United States. Nvidia is well positioned to majorly profit from [this event]."

I wouldn't say that fully autonomous vehicles are "very close" to being legal across the U.S. This event seems at least a few years away. But I continue to believe this watershed event will "turbocharge" Nvidia's growth thanks to its widely adopted AI-powered DRIVE platform.

Prediction 6. The X factor

Status: Correct.

In March 2020, I wrote: "Nvidia is incredibly innovative, so there seems a great chance that the company will introduce at least one major new technology that takes nearly everyone by surprise."

Over the last five years, Nvidia has launched a good number of major new technologies that have likely taken most investors and Wall Street analysts by surprise.

One example is its Omniverse platform, which launched in 2021. This is a simulation platform that enables the creation of virtual worlds and digital twins. It's been widely adopted by a broad industry range of large enterprise companies -- including Amazon, PepsiCo, and BMW Group -- for uses such as designing products and optimizing facility workflow.

2020 article ending: And Nvidia's stock price in 2025?

Status: Correct.

Here's what I wrote in March 2020:

It's impossible to predict a company's stock price in five years because so many unknowns ... can have a huge influence on the market in general. That said, given the projections made in this article, I feel very comfortable predicting that Nvidia stock will solidly outperform the market over the next half decade.

Stay tuned. I'm planning on a predictions article similar to my 2020 one. Hint: It's going to be optimistic, as Nvidia's highly profitable strong revenue growth is far from over, in my opinion.

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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Beth McKenna has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Amazon, Intel, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft and recommends the following options: short August 2025 $24 calls on Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

One of the things that makes Warren Buffett a widely admired investor is his willingness to share how he does it. Buffett has been a student of the market since his first stock purchase more than 80 years ago. He shares mistakes made and lessons learned every year in his letter to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) shareholders and at the annual shareholder meeting.

Investors also gain insights into his and his team's investments through Securities and Exchange Commission filings disclosing Berkshire's portfolio changes.

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While Buffett has been a net seller of stocks the past few years, he still oversees a portfolio worth $281 billion as of this writing. And nearly half of that is invested in just three exceptional stocks.

1. Apple (22% of portfolio value)

Buffett first bought shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) in 2016 when it traded at a valuation too low to ignore. Buffett saw the powerful moat created by the iPhone, locking hundreds of millions of consumers into the Apple ecosystem, and Berkshire Hathaway poured tens of billions of dollars into the stock duringthe next couple of years. At one point, Apple accounted for more than half of Berkshire's marketable equity portfolio. After selling a significant chunk in 2024, it now accounts for 22% of the portfolio.

As mentioned, Apple benefits from a wide competitive moat thanks to the success of its iPhone. Apple's iPhone sales topped $200 billion in each of the past three years, and sales are on track to grow in 2025. The iPhone is the center of Apple's growing ecosystem of devices and services, helping the rest of the business grow.

The services segment is a particularly bright spot for Apple, currently boasting a $100 billion annual run rate. Apple's services are significantly higher margin sources of revenue than its devices. As one of the fastest-growing segments of the business, Apple's overall profit margins are expanding as a result. When combined with Apple's huge share repurchase program, Apple is capable of producing meaningful growth in earnings per share.

Apple faces some headwinds, though. First of all, it's in the crosshairs of the tariffs planned by the Trump administration. Its supply chain relies heavily on China and Taiwan. As a result, its costs could increase and it may have to pass those expenses on to consumers. That could dent its device sales.

Additionally, Apple has been slow to develop competitive artificial intelligence services. It risks losing customers looking for more AI integrated capabilities from their phones and services. Apple customers tend to be locked into the ecosystem, which helps minimize that risk.

Apple stock has fallen from its late-2024 all-time high, trading more than 20% below its peak. At its current price, the stock's valuation is about 28 times forward earnings. While Apple isn't the fast grower it once was, it holds a lot of potential to unlock value with AI services in the future while its iPhone and services businesses remain rock solid today. As such, it looks like a fair price to pay for the tech giant.

2. American Express (16%)

American Express (NYSE: AXP) is a longtime holding for Buffett. He put about $1.3 billion into the stock in the 1990s and hasn't touched it since. Today, those shares are worth nearly $45 billion.

Amex separates itself from other credit card companies by operating as both the card issuer and as the payments network. Most issuing banks partner with Visa or Mastercard to remit payments to vendors from customer accounts. Doing both allows Amex to exercise more control over the business and capture more of the economics of card payments. To that end, it's done extremely well, commanding higher interchange fees from businesses by attracting affluent households to its high-fee products.

Amex has successfully raised the fees on its cards during the past few years. It reported an 18% year-over-year increase in net card fees during the first quarter, while its customers spent just 6% more compared to the first quarter of 2024. That said, the fees collected from processing payments is still its biggest source of revenue.

During the past few years, Amex has shifted strategies to offer more credit products to customers. Its charge cards historically required customers to pay their full balance each month, but Amex now lets customers pay over time with interest. Its interest income grew quickly from 2021 through 2024, but slowed to just 11% growth in the first quarter. That's mostly due to the law of large numbers, as interest income now accounts for nearly a quarter of its revenue.

Amex may be a bit more insulated from an economic slowdown compared to other banks and payment processors due to its focus on high-income households and lesser focus on interest income. As such, it's less susceptible to loan defaults. Amex trades for a significant premium relative to its most comparable competitor, Capital One Financial, but it arguably deserves a premium due to the strength of its customer base, its scale, and its ability to boost revenue through fee increases and more interest-bearing services.

3. Coca-Cola (10%)

Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) is another stock Buffett bought more than 30 years ago and has no plans to sell anytime soon. His original $1.3 billion investment in the company (yes, the same amount he invested in Amex) is now worth about $29 billion. Not to mention, Coke's paid out more and more each year in dividends. Berkshire shareholders will collect roughly $816 million in dividends from Coca-Cola this year.

The appeal of the company is two-fold.

First of all, it has one of the strongest global brands in history. The red Coca-Cola logo is known the world over transliterated into practically every language known to man. Its brand strength extends well beyond its flagship product, though, to include top-selling carbonated drinks, water, juice, and sports drinks. That gives it considerable pricing power, which it has used to help offset inflation in recent years.

The second factor is its huge scale, which has made it cost-effective to create localized supply chains for producing and packaging its products. That's come to the fore in recent months as global trade policies put pressure on other global companies. Coca-Cola has managed to avoid the impact of tariffs more than its competitors, enabling it to keep its costs down. During its first-quarter earnings call, management warned it's not immune to global trade dynamics, but it's better positioned than most businesses.

Both of those advantages helped Coke produce strong first-quarter results while reaffirming its forecast for the full year. Revenue grew 6% and earnings per share grew 1%. Those numbers might not seem impressive, but they look great compared to Coke's biggest rival PepsiCo, which saw revenue and earnings per share shrink in the first quarter.

Coke's relative strength hasn't gone unnoticed. The stock price has climbed 15% year to date as of this writing, and the shares trade at 24 times forward earnings. That's higher than its historic average, but not outrageously so. With its strong position in the current economic environment, it might be worth paying a premium for Coca-Cola stock. You'll also collect a nice 2.8% dividend yield at the current price.

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American Express is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Adam Levy has positions in Apple, Mastercard, and Visa. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Mastercard, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends Capital One Financial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Equity markets have dropped this year as President Donald Trump's tariffs have raised fears that the U.S. economy will fall into a recession. U.S. gross domestic product did shrink in the first quarter, and the S&P 500, though it has recovered from its earlier declines this year, is still down by more than 4% so far in 2025 as of May 6, and down by more than 8% from its peak.

However, market pullbacks give investors who are focused on the long term opportunities to pause and investigate companies with strong long-term prospects. It's also comforting to buy dividend-paying stocks, as those regular payouts can help enhance your returns. That's particularly true during uncertain times.

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These two companies have increased their payouts annually for more than 50 consecutive years, making them Dividend Kings. Those impressive track records mean they've not only consistently made payouts but increased them even during challenging economic times.

1. PepsiCo

PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) sells beverages and foods under well-known brands like Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, Cheetos, and Quaker. Still, its sales haven't been immune from the difficult overall economic environment.

Its sales increased by a tepid 1% in the first quarter, after factoring out the impacts of acquisitions, divestitures, and shifting foreign currency exchange rates. That increase was entirely attributable to price increases, which added 3 percentage points to the top line, as lower sales volumes subtracted 2 percentage points.

While no one can predict when the current complex economic headwinds will abate, they undoubtedly will at some point. When consumers return to their normal spending habits, PepsiCo will undoubtedly be one of the beneficiaries. Meanwhile, its management team has done a good job at controlling costs -- adjusted earnings per share grew by 5% in Q1.

In a positive sign, a couple of months ago, the board of directors announced a 5% increase in the quarterly dividend that will be distributed in June. That will extend PepsiCo's streak of payout hikes to 53 straight years -- and with a 78% payout ratio, it can afford those payments.

At the new $5.69 annual rate and its current share price, PepsiCo's stock has a 4.3% dividend yield. That's more than three times the S&P 500's yield of 1.3%.

The stock has fallen by more than 25% over the last year versus a 9.6% gain for the S&P 500. However, for patient investors, this has created a better valuation that creates a buying opportunity. PepsiCo's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at around 19 compared to 27 a year ago. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has a P/E ratio of about 27.

2. Target

Target (NYSE: TGT) has grown into a popular shopping destination by offering differentiated merchandise. Many times, you might only find the items at Target.

Its sales have also been impacted by customers paying more for everyday essentials like food. In its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended on Feb. 1, same-store sales (comps) increased just 1.5%.

Positively, people still visited Target's stores and website. That's evidenced by the 2.1% increase in the number of transactions. They spent less on each visit, though, with the average transaction size down by 0.6%.

The company's gross margin contracted from 26.6% to 26.2% due in part to markdowns and higher supply chain costs. Looking ahead, higher tariffs create short-term uncertainty that may raise Target's costs and potentially hurt sales and margins. However, long-term investors should not get discouraged.

After all, the increased traffic shows that people haven't abandoned Target. They're just spending less. When their personal economic situation improves, it seems likely that they'll go back to spending more money at Target.

While waiting for the improvement, Target shareholders can enjoy its 4.6% dividend yield. When the board of directors raised dividends last June, it ran the company's streak of boosts to 53 consecutive years.

The streak doesn't seem like it will get broken anytime soon based on the company's free cash flow (FCF). Last year, the company generated $4.5 billion in FCF and paid out $2 billion in dividends.

The stock has tested investors' patience with a price drop of more than 40% over the last year. However, the share price looks compelling with its trailing P/E falling from 18 to below 11.

That suggests an opportunity to collect dividends and benefit from capital appreciation.

Should you invest $1,000 in PepsiCo right now?

Before you buy stock in PepsiCo, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and PepsiCo wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $623,103!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $717,471!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 909% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 162% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

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Lawrence Rothman, CFA has positions in Target. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Target. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.