In what might go down as one of the wildest weeks for investors in stocks in recent history, Newmont (NYSE: NEM) stock offered much respite, with solid and steady gains through the week. Shortly after noon ET Friday, Newmont stock hit a weekly intraday high of 26%, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), meanwhile, managed to log 6.1% gains, at its intraday best over the past five trading days, through 2 p.m. ET Friday

Newmont stock is riding the wave of fresh enthusiasm in gold stocks amid the stock market turmoil, with one analyst even upgrading the stock's price target by 20%.

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This analyst expects gold prices to rise further

Newmont is the world's largest gold producer, with its mines churning out 6.8 million attributable ounces of gold in 2024. The mining giant also produces silver, copper, zinc, and lead.

As one may guess, Newmont's fortunes depend on commodity prices, and we are witnessing gold's golden days right now. Gold is on fire, with its price hitting a record high this morning and jumping over $3,220 per ounce. Analysts at UBS just predicted gold prices to hit $3,500 per ounce in 2026 as investors flock to the yellow metal amid the tariffs and trade war that have triggered fears of a recession.

At the same time, analyst Daniel Major lifted Newmont stock's rating to buy from neutral and upped its price target to $60 per share from $50 a share. That would mean a 20% upside from the gold stock's closing price of April 10. Major believes Newmont stock could get a lift as the miner achieves its 2025 guidance amid low expectations.

Other gold stocks, however, could rise faster

Newmont stock has hugely underperformed the industry and gold prices in recent years as operational challenges and high costs hit the miner's profits and cash flows. 2024, however, was a strong year for Newmont. Having acquired Newcrest in 2023, Newmont's sales jumped 57% in 2024, and it turned a net profit of $3.4 billion versus a net loss of nearly $2.5 billion in 2023.

Newmont is also cutting debt, and expects to raise net cash proceeds of around $2.5 billion from the sale of some assets this year. A UBS analyst believes the miner could return much of this cash to shareholders in the form of share buybacks.

I'm not too sure here, though. While soaring gold prices should send Newmont's sales up in 2025, I'm still wary about its mining and production costs and expect them to remain high this year. That means other, even smaller, gold stocks, might be able to better exploit gold prices to their advantage and grow faster than Newmont.

Should you invest $1,000 in Newmont right now?

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At long last, it's Friday, and a turbulent week of selling, buying, and even more selling is at an end.

Investors seem exhausted by the roller-coaster week. Major market indices are slightly in the green as traders pause in relief, unfazed by the latest economic news that China is retaliating from the most recent U.S. tariffs hike on Chinese exports (to 145%) by raising its own tariff on U.S. exports to 125%.

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Gold stocks, meanwhile, are looking like one bright pocket of green in the market today, with shares of Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) rising 5.6% through 10:30 a.m. ET, Newmont (NYSE: NEM) up 6.6%, and Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE) doing best of all -- up 7.6%.

UBS loves gold stocks

Giving the gold industry a lift this morning is investment bank UBS, which this morning announced higher price targets on both Barrick and Newmont. As StreetInsider.com reports, UBS today raised its price target on Barrick stock to $25 a share, while maintaining a buy rating.

UBS also upgraded Newmont to buy, and raised its price target by 20%, to $60 a share. As the banker explained, gold stocks in general are following a script seen in past "major macro shocks," such as the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and the pandemic of 2020.

To wit, UBS says, "gold & gold equities were initially sold" to cover margin calls and generally pare back stock investments, but "are now rallying" again. UBS sees gold as a safe haven in a turbulent market, and predicts the shiny metal will rise in price to as much as $3,500 an ounce (from $3,230 today) by 2026.

Long story short, UBS is predicting a "stronger for longer gold price environment" that should benefit all gold stocks. The analyst likes Newmont better than the others, though, because the stock has greatly underperformed the gold price index over the last five years, and so will presumably benefit disproportionately from any return to the mean.

Image source: Getty Images.

Which gold stock should you buy?

Is UBS right to recommend buying gold stocks? Investors won't have to wait long for their first clue. According to Yahoo! Finance data, Newmont will report earnings less than two weeks from now, on April 23, followed by Barrick on April 29. Coeur Mining recently confirmed its own Q1 earnings date will lag a bit behind, arriving on May 7, but even just seeing the forecasts from the first two gold mining companies should give us a strong hint of which way things are heading.

What I can tell you already today is that analysts are feeling pretty optimistic about these stocks as a group. Valued just under 18 times trailing earnings today, forecasts see Newmont profits surging in the year ahead, such that the stock's forward P/E ratio is just 8.4. Barrick balances a better trailing P/E (15.8) against more modest growth expectations yielding a forward P/E of 11.6.

Coeur, on the other hand, not only has its earnings farthest out, but also looks least attractive from a valuation perspective. Priced at 36.6 times trailing earnings today, Coeur stock's forward P/E drops to 13.7 looking 12 months out, indicating strong profits growth -- but still a more expensive valuation than its gold-mining peers. Adding to the unattractiveness, Coeur is currently the only one of these three gold stocks that is not generating positive free cash flow.

So which of these three stocks would I buy, were I in the market for a good gold stock? Honestly, my hunch is that Barrick is the best of the bunch. Valued on P/E, the stock seems reasonably priced already, and its valuation isn't as dependent on hitting aggressive growth targets as is Newmont's.

Additionally, Barrick has the least leveraged balance sheet, with only $1.2 billion more debt than cash. And Barrick generates substantial free cash flow of $1.3 billion -- not as much as the $3 billion that much larger Newmont throws off, granted, but still a tidy sum.

Factor in its modest 2.3% dividend yield, and Barrick looks like a decent way to invest in UBS's prediction of a bright future for gold stocks to me.

Should you invest $1,000 in Barrick Gold right now?

Before you buy stock in Barrick Gold, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Barrick Gold wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $496,779!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $659,306!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 787% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 152% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 10, 2025

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.