1 Magnificent Growth Stock Down 43% to Buy and Hold Forever
Key Points
Fair Isaac's FICO score could face new competition in mortgages originated through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The stock's tumble could be due to a previously excessive valuation instead.
Strong pricing power and aggressive share repurchases make Fair Isaac a stock to buy on the dip.
When someone wants to take out a loan, open a credit card, or apply for a mortgage, lenders will look at that person's credit score. It's been a lucrative business model for decades for Fair Isaac (NYSE: FICO), the company whose FICO credit scoring system has become a global leader, used in making more than 10 billion credit decisions annually.
Shares of Fair Isaac have returned more than 43,000% since 1994!
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The stock, however, has tumbled for months. The downtrend continued after the U.S. government announced it would let U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac use VantageScore, an alternative credit scoring model created by the U.S.'s top three credit bureaus. That decision breaks the decades-long monopoly Fair Isaac has enjoyed in that market, helping generate those staggering investment returns.
But despite the troubling news, the stock's steep 43% decline from its 52-week high could instead be an opportunity to buy the dip and hold for the long haul.

Image source: Getty Images.
FICO's network effects will be hard to undo
The most important part of lending money is getting paid back. Fair Isaac's FICO score dominates this aspect of the lending industry. About 90% of the top U.S. lenders and credit unions use the FICO score, and 95% of the total dollars of U.S. securitizations -- loans pooled together and sold as investments -- solely cite the FICO score to measure their risk.
The more lenders depend on the FICO score, the more data it has to hone its algorithm, and the more people trust its reputation. It's a self-fulfilling loop, often called the network effect. It's a powerful advantage that doesn't typically erode overnight.
The industry criticized Fair Isaac for raising its wholesale royalty price from $3.50 to $4.95 per score on mortgage originations last year, an increase of more than 40%. It probably influenced the government's decision to open up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages to a competitor. But how likely is this to hurt Fair Isaac's business? I'm skeptical that it will, at least for now.
With a mortgage averaging roughly $6,000 in total closing costs, the $4.95 Fair Isaac charges for a FICO score is a minuscule component of the total costs of originating a mortgage loan. Is a lender going to opt for a less-proven credit scoring system to save a couple of dollars per loan? Even if the VantageScore system performs well, a loan default could wipe out a lender's cumulative savings on thousands of originations.
On the securitization side of things, institutions and other investors who buy securitized mortgage products would need to feel comfortable with an alternative tool gauging the risk of such products. Once again, it's not that it can't happen, but assuming it will could be getting too far ahead of things.
This could explain the stock's sharp decline
Instead, Fair Isaac's recent tumble could boil down to the stock's valuation coming back to earth.
After all, the stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio topped out at nearly 120 at its peak, an excessive valuation that made an eventual reversion a matter of when, more so than if.
FICO PE Ratio data by YCharts.
You can see the stock's P/E was less than 30 not very long ago. Stock prices can act like pendulums, swinging hard in either direction. The overextended valuation had already begun to unwind and the VantageScore announcement simply added to the selling pressure.
A fantastic company at a reasonable price
The decline has dropped Fair Isaac to a reasonable price for long-term buyers. Wall Street is quite optimistic about the company's future; long-term estimates call for 27% annualized earnings growth. That's a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of about 2, a solid valuation for a top-notch company.
Fair Isaac will have opportunities to live up to expectations as consumers in America and abroad continue to borrow. Much of that growth could depend on its ability to raise prices on its FICO credit scores. Investors probably shouldn't anticipate more 40% price increases, but Fair Isaac's market leadership with FICO should give it solid pricing power across various types of credit.
Additionally, Fair Isaac aggressively buys back stock to boost its earnings per share. Management has retired nearly a quarter of the diluted share count during the past decade.
Fair Isaac's valuation isn't a bargain yet. If the shares decline more, pushing the stock to valuations reminiscent of 2022 and 2023, investors may want to buy slowly and steadily to ensure they leave some cash handy for lower prices should they present themselves.
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Justin Pope has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Fair Isaac. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.