Stitch Fix (NASDAQ: SFIX) reported some tough results in its latest fiscal quarter. While revenue was positive and losses better than the previous trend, it's still hard to say that Stitch Fix is a good buy.

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Down more than 13% recently, investors seem to be noticing the trend of declines in clients, which will make it harder for the subscription clothing service to grow revenue over the long term.

Image source: Getty Images.

The revenue gains are undermined by the number of declining customers

For Stitch Fix to grow, it has to increase its customer base. The opposite happened in its most recent quarter, with active clients decreasing by 10.6% year over year, and 0.8% quarter to quarter. In all, Stitch Fix's fiscal third-quarter revenue increased 0.7% year over year to $325 million.

The problem is that revenue was gained by increasing net revenue per active client by 3.2% to $542 per person. Short term, this certainly works. Long term, it's not a promising proposition. You can only derive so much revenue from a declining client base over time.

Total revenue increased slightly for the quarter, but if you look at the first nine months of the fiscal year, revenue was down from roughly $1.06 billion, to $956 million year over year.

Looking ahead

For fiscal year 2025, of which there is only one quarter left, guidance is calling for net revenue of $1.245 billion to $1.26 billion, which would be a 6.2% to 5.9% decline from the year before. It follows a troubling trend for Stitch Fix. The subscription clothing service has seen its top line deteriorate annually for three years in a row, and fiscal 2025 doesn't look like it's going to be any different.

If the client base keeps shrinking, it's very hard to be bullish on this stock. The annual losses are also a headache for the company as it tries to grow.

To be fair, things were much better through the first nine months of fiscal 2025. Total net losses were $20.16 million through the first three fiscal quarters, whereas things were much higher at $92.34 million the year before. This was encouraging news, and definitely something to make shareholders happy. But I still don't see how a trend toward profitability can carry over the long term if the number of customers remains in decline.

I will extend an olive branch where it's due: Under CEO Matt Baer, the company finally reported revenue growth in the most recent quarter. The game plan seems to be to focus on increasing personalization, but to this point, that hasn't brought in new customers.

This is not an easy concept

This seems like a wait-and-see stock. Until it rights the ship in terms of clients, there's danger here. The stock is down 82% over the last five years for a reason, and compared to a gain of nearly 98% for the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), it doesn't seem like a great buy.

A contraction in clients cannot be ignored, and there's some logic behind it. The concept of having clothes chosen for you might not appeal to a broad audience. People like to pick their own things.

This is a tricky concept to execute. Not only do you have to pick things that people will actually like, you have to get the sizing right as well, lest you end up with tons of returns. That, to me, might be one of the reasons that the number of clients is in decline.

The one thing that might counter the negative sentiment, given the weakening client base, would be a shift to profitability. But estimates aren't calling for that in the near future.

Analyst estimates are predicting that earnings will remain negative all the way into fiscal 2027, with a loss of $0.10 per share that year. To me, it's difficult to remain overly motivated to buy Stitch Fix stock when you're looking at that long a time frame without profitability, combined with the fact that there's weakening customer interest.

I reiterate that it's going to be difficult to drive top-line growth over the long term if the total number of customers declines. For now, I think this is definitely a wait-and-see stock.

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Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU) shares dropped roughly 20% in value last week after the company delivered an earnings report that included less enthusiastic earnings expectations for the year. While its revenues are still expected to be relatively in line with previous guidance, the added costs that tariffs will impose led management to dial back earnings estimates, causing the market to hit the stock pretty hard.

To be fair, Lululemon has historically been a fairly expensive stock, and companies need to produce solid results if they want to sustain higher valuations.

Lower guidance

Arguably the biggest factor impacting Lululemon shares right now is the guidance cut. Yes, the apparel retailer beat estimates for the first quarter, but management nonetheless reduced earnings per share (EPS) expectations for the year to a range of $14.58 to $14.78 compared to previous guidance of $14.95 to $15.15.

As with most things these days, the weaker outlook is largely due to President Donald Trump's tariffs. Clothing companies like Lululemon largely hire overseas subcontractors to do the manufacturing of their clothes, which puts them in the crosshairs of Trump's policies. When I wrote about Lululemon in April, I noted that the tariffs Trump was imposing on Vietnam would impact 40% of Lululemon's production. Though those new taxes are currently paused, the president set the tariff rate on imports from that country at 46%.

Image Source: Getty Images

Despite a 7% increase in revenue, Lululemon's earnings fell year over year in its fiscal 2025 first quarter. For the period, which ended May 4, net income was $314 million compared to $321 million a year earlier; a lower overall share count was responsible for its EPS growth. According to CNBC, comp sales increased a mere 1% compared to Wall Street's expectations for a 3% increase.

From what I can see, Lululemon has two main problems. Its costs of production will rise due to tariffs while the premium prices it charges for its goods could be putting a damper on its sales, especially in the United States, where recent Commerce Department reports have shown weak consumer spending growth.

Valuation

One positive that can be pointed out for the stock is its now-lower valuation. According to fullratio.com, Lululemon has historically averaged a P/E ratio of around 42. After the stock's latest pullback, investors can pick up shares for a mere 17 times earnings. Based on the low end of the company's new guidance for 2025, the stock is trading at roughly 18 times forward earnings. But are these valuations low enough to make the stock a buy?

Previously, my stance was that the market conditions Lululemon faces make it a stock to avoid for the time being. That's still my view. CFO Meghan Frank said that the company plans to make some "strategic" price increases on certain items to pass their tariff costs along to their customers. However, I don't see how the company can keep raising prices on what are already $100 leggings. Granted, Lululemon has really branched out into different categories, even offering golf-oriented apparel, but I still think that any price increases will be a problem at a time when U.S. consumers are tightening their belts. The combination of high tariffs and reduced consumer discretionary spending is going to pressure apparel brands like Lululemon and Nike (NYSE: NKE). Until those headwinds abate, there isn't going to be much momentum here.

As a final note, I would also add that Lululemon operates in a highly competitive area of the apparel industry. It's constantly vying for market share and consumer attention with the likes of Nike, Gap (NYSE: GAP), and others. In the end, prices do matter in that fight.

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David Butler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Nike. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.