The stock market has been on a roller coaster ride since the start of the year.

After a rocky January, when AI stocks got dinged by DeepSeek's news of a cheaper reasoning model, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) returned to an all-time high in February. Then, President Trump's tariff discussions put many investors on edge as he announced plans for taxes on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. That went into overdrive at the start of April, when Trump enacted significantly higher-than-expected tariffs on practically every country in the world. The announcement produced one of the worst two-day market crashes in history.

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But after walking back the implementation of most of the tariffs (for now) and investors acclimating to this uncertain environment, the stock market has mostly recovered. In fact, the S&P 500 index just did something in May for the first time since 1990, and historically, it signals a big move in stocks over the next 12 months.

Here's what investors need to know.

Image source: Getty Images.

A historic month for the stock market

The S&P 500 climbed 6.15% in the month of May. That's the first time the benchmark index climbed more than 6% in the month of May since 1990 and just the seventh time May's performance has topped 5% since 1985, according to Carson Investment Research's Ryan Detrick.

Data by YCharts.

While investors who missed the chance to buy the dip in April may be bemoaning the stock market's rapid comeback, history suggests they may still have an opportunity to buy. In each of the last six instances when the S&P 500 return topped 5% in May, it went on to produce an average return of nearly 20% over the next 12 months. So much for "Sell in May and go away."

In fact, Detrick's data shows that none of the six instances ended with a negative return over the next 12 months despite the market's penchant for reverting to the mean. That said, investors who bought after the 9.2% rally in May of 1990 did have to sit through a three-month period from July through October when stocks fell almost 20%. Ultimately, however, those investors saw the index climb about 8% for the year after the May rally.

The month of June is already off to a strong start as of this writing. But if investors can expect 20% gains in the index for the next year, there's still a lot more growth to come.

Here's what investors can really expect

While Detrick's data shows the market tends to keep climbing higher after abnormally strong Mays, investors shouldn't put too much weight into the historical data.

First of all, the sample size is minuscule. Six data points over 40 years don't give enough information for the basis of a financial decision.

Second of all, every market is different. The 1990 rally was fueled by falling interest rates. Indeed, the rate on the 30-year Treasury bond fell all the way from 9% to 8.6%. By contrast, the 2025 rally was fueled by easing trade tensions. In both cases, many investors expressed concerns about market valuations amid the rally. Indeed, the CAPE ratio returned to its high levels, and stocks look even more expensive after analysts adjusted their forward earnings expectations lower. Still, it's unlikely the next 12 months will look anything like the 12 months from June of 1990 through May of 1991.

As such, individual stock investors should remain vigilant in their efforts to find good investments. As investor Peter Lynch said, "Buy the right stocks at the wrong price at the wrong time and you'll suffer great losses." But if you find a good opportunity, history suggests you could end up with a strong return over the next year.

For passive investors, you're playing a different game. There's no need to pay attention to history. You should be fully invested in your index fund of choice at all times. Trying to time the market based on recent results is a surefire way to underperform the index over the long run.

May's rally was a welcome reprieve from the crash we saw in April. History suggests more strong months may be ahead, but I caution investors from reading too much into how similar May rallies have played out in the past.

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Adam Levy has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

One of the things that makes Warren Buffett a widely admired investor is his willingness to share how he does it. Buffett has been a student of the market since his first stock purchase more than 80 years ago. He shares mistakes made and lessons learned every year in his letter to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) shareholders and at the annual shareholder meeting.

Investors also gain insights into his and his team's investments through Securities and Exchange Commission filings disclosing Berkshire's portfolio changes.

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While Buffett has been a net seller of stocks the past few years, he still oversees a portfolio worth $281 billion as of this writing. And nearly half of that is invested in just three exceptional stocks.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

1. Apple (22% of portfolio value)

Buffett first bought shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) in 2016 when it traded at a valuation too low to ignore. Buffett saw the powerful moat created by the iPhone, locking hundreds of millions of consumers into the Apple ecosystem, and Berkshire Hathaway poured tens of billions of dollars into the stock duringthe next couple of years. At one point, Apple accounted for more than half of Berkshire's marketable equity portfolio. After selling a significant chunk in 2024, it now accounts for 22% of the portfolio.

As mentioned, Apple benefits from a wide competitive moat thanks to the success of its iPhone. Apple's iPhone sales topped $200 billion in each of the past three years, and sales are on track to grow in 2025. The iPhone is the center of Apple's growing ecosystem of devices and services, helping the rest of the business grow.

The services segment is a particularly bright spot for Apple, currently boasting a $100 billion annual run rate. Apple's services are significantly higher margin sources of revenue than its devices. As one of the fastest-growing segments of the business, Apple's overall profit margins are expanding as a result. When combined with Apple's huge share repurchase program, Apple is capable of producing meaningful growth in earnings per share.

Apple faces some headwinds, though. First of all, it's in the crosshairs of the tariffs planned by the Trump administration. Its supply chain relies heavily on China and Taiwan. As a result, its costs could increase and it may have to pass those expenses on to consumers. That could dent its device sales.

Additionally, Apple has been slow to develop competitive artificial intelligence services. It risks losing customers looking for more AI integrated capabilities from their phones and services. Apple customers tend to be locked into the ecosystem, which helps minimize that risk.

Apple stock has fallen from its late-2024 all-time high, trading more than 20% below its peak. At its current price, the stock's valuation is about 28 times forward earnings. While Apple isn't the fast grower it once was, it holds a lot of potential to unlock value with AI services in the future while its iPhone and services businesses remain rock solid today. As such, it looks like a fair price to pay for the tech giant.

2. American Express (16%)

American Express (NYSE: AXP) is a longtime holding for Buffett. He put about $1.3 billion into the stock in the 1990s and hasn't touched it since. Today, those shares are worth nearly $45 billion.

Amex separates itself from other credit card companies by operating as both the card issuer and as the payments network. Most issuing banks partner with Visa or Mastercard to remit payments to vendors from customer accounts. Doing both allows Amex to exercise more control over the business and capture more of the economics of card payments. To that end, it's done extremely well, commanding higher interchange fees from businesses by attracting affluent households to its high-fee products.

Amex has successfully raised the fees on its cards during the past few years. It reported an 18% year-over-year increase in net card fees during the first quarter, while its customers spent just 6% more compared to the first quarter of 2024. That said, the fees collected from processing payments is still its biggest source of revenue.

During the past few years, Amex has shifted strategies to offer more credit products to customers. Its charge cards historically required customers to pay their full balance each month, but Amex now lets customers pay over time with interest. Its interest income grew quickly from 2021 through 2024, but slowed to just 11% growth in the first quarter. That's mostly due to the law of large numbers, as interest income now accounts for nearly a quarter of its revenue.

Amex may be a bit more insulated from an economic slowdown compared to other banks and payment processors due to its focus on high-income households and lesser focus on interest income. As such, it's less susceptible to loan defaults. Amex trades for a significant premium relative to its most comparable competitor, Capital One Financial, but it arguably deserves a premium due to the strength of its customer base, its scale, and its ability to boost revenue through fee increases and more interest-bearing services.

3. Coca-Cola (10%)

Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) is another stock Buffett bought more than 30 years ago and has no plans to sell anytime soon. His original $1.3 billion investment in the company (yes, the same amount he invested in Amex) is now worth about $29 billion. Not to mention, Coke's paid out more and more each year in dividends. Berkshire shareholders will collect roughly $816 million in dividends from Coca-Cola this year.

The appeal of the company is two-fold.

First of all, it has one of the strongest global brands in history. The red Coca-Cola logo is known the world over transliterated into practically every language known to man. Its brand strength extends well beyond its flagship product, though, to include top-selling carbonated drinks, water, juice, and sports drinks. That gives it considerable pricing power, which it has used to help offset inflation in recent years.

The second factor is its huge scale, which has made it cost-effective to create localized supply chains for producing and packaging its products. That's come to the fore in recent months as global trade policies put pressure on other global companies. Coca-Cola has managed to avoid the impact of tariffs more than its competitors, enabling it to keep its costs down. During its first-quarter earnings call, management warned it's not immune to global trade dynamics, but it's better positioned than most businesses.

Both of those advantages helped Coke produce strong first-quarter results while reaffirming its forecast for the full year. Revenue grew 6% and earnings per share grew 1%. Those numbers might not seem impressive, but they look great compared to Coke's biggest rival PepsiCo, which saw revenue and earnings per share shrink in the first quarter.

Coke's relative strength hasn't gone unnoticed. The stock price has climbed 15% year to date as of this writing, and the shares trade at 24 times forward earnings. That's higher than its historic average, but not outrageously so. With its strong position in the current economic environment, it might be worth paying a premium for Coca-Cola stock. You'll also collect a nice 2.8% dividend yield at the current price.

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American Express is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Adam Levy has positions in Apple, Mastercard, and Visa. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Mastercard, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends Capital One Financial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

When it comes to cryptocurrency, one name stands out above the crowd: Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). The original cryptocurrency accounts for roughly 63% of the entire crypto market cap.

However, Bitcoin is so big that it doesn't always produce the best returns. More recently, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has gotten a lot of attention as regulatory pressure eases on the company, and its utility has gotten a major boost from several advancements from Ripple. Meanwhile, Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) is often seen as the backbone of DeFi, with its smart contract blockchain doing most of the heavy lifting in the industry.

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While there's a case to be made for either to outperform Bitcoin, I think Bitcoin will ultimately outperform amid the current environment. Here are three reasons why investors should consider the king of cryptos.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. The flight to quality

President Donald Trump has quickly and aggressively enacted wide-reaching tariffs on just about everything imported into the United States since taking office in January. Not only has he announced massive potential tariffs on imports, he's also paused them, said he will carve out exceptions, and unpaused certain tariffs.

All of this leads to massive amounts of uncertainty in the market. It's hard to know what to do with your money if the playing field could completely change tomorrow.

When markets are uncertain, they sell off riskier assets. That's certainly true of the entire cryptocurrency market, and Bitcoin hasn't been immune.

However, of all the cryptocurrencies investors could buy, Bitcoin is the highest-quality investment. It has significant institutional backing and a lot of big stakeholders, and the U.S. government now holds Bitcoin as part of its strategic cryptocurrency reserve. Investors selling risky altcoins are likely to move their money to Bitcoin.

As such, it's no surprise that Bitcoin has held up better than either XRP or Ethereum in the last few months. I expect that will continue to be the case as long as the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain.

2. Investors pulling money out of the U.S. markets

Since Trump's tariff announcement, we've seen both U.S. stocks and U.S. debt decline in value. That's not typically how it works. Remember, investors usually move from risky assets (stocks) to safer assets (Treasuries). However, the decline in Treasuries suggests investors are completely abandoning U.S. markets instead of shifting from risky assets to safer assets.

Those investors will be looking for a safe asset to buy. Foreign debt could be an option; gold is another, but Bitcoin presents an interesting case as well. That's particularly true as a result of a second-order effect from the mass exodus from U.S. securities. The U.S. dollar has grown significantly weaker in the last few weeks.

The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen more than 10% since Trump took office in January. The dollar weakened considerably after the tariffs were announced on April 2, and it failed to bounce back after Trump announced a pause on those tariffs. When the U.S. dollar weakens, it typically results in higher pricing for Bitcoin.

3. Inflation could push the price higher

Bitcoin is seen as a hedge against inflation. Most economists agree the tariffs will be inflationary.

That only makes sense. An escalating trade war with taxes on every import, from manufacturing equipment to parts to final products, will have a huge impact on the final price of goods. Combine that with the weakening U.S. dollar, and we'll see massive inflationary pressure.

Since Bitcoin has a fixed supply, a dollar that can buy less will theoretically apply to Bitcoin as well. That means the price of Bitcoin will go up.

The economics of Bitcoin don't exist in a vacuum, though. The three factors outlined here, all fallout from Trump's tariffs, point to Bitcoin performing relatively well compared to other cryptocurrencies and other assets in general. The longer the macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, the longer the trade war goes on, the more money we'll see flow into Bitcoin compared to other cryptocurrencies. As such, investors may see Bitcoin's dominance of the market extend even further over the coming months.

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Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $591,533!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $652,319!*

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Adam Levy has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

When to file for Social Security benefits is one of the most important decisions you'll make in retirement. Most people first become eligible for retirement benefits starting at age 62, but experts typically recommend waiting until 70 to maximize your monthly check.

Waiting until age 70 could increase your Social Security benefit by roughly 77% compared to claiming at age 62. Most people will live more than long enough for the bigger monthly check to make up for the years of foregone benefits. Indeed, the optimal decision for a single retiree is to wait until 70, barring any reasons to expect a shorter-than-average life.

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But no financial decision should be made in a vacuum. There are plenty of reasons why it might make sense to claim benefits long before age 70. In fact, I plan to claim my Social Security very early, perhaps as soon as I'm eligible. Here are three reasons why it makes sense for me.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. My spouse (to be) is the higher earner

Social Security claiming strategies can become a lot more complex when you're married in retirement.

It won't always be the case, but it usually makes sense for the higher-earning spouse to wait until age 70 to claim Social Security. As mentioned, the average person will live more than long enough for the bigger benefits check to make up for the Social Security they didn't receive in their 60s.

On top of that, the lower-earning spouse may end up receiving survivor benefits if the higher-earning spouse passes away first. Survivor benefits allow the surviving spouse to collect total Social Security benefits equal to the amount the higher-earning spouse received before passing away. That means the lifetime value of delaying benefits until 70 for the higher earner should account for the dual life expectancy of both spouses.

At the same time, the other spouse should consider collecting retirement benefits as early as age 62. Typically, if one partner waits until age 70, the present value of expected household income is maximized by the other partner claiming as soon as they're eligible.

2. I expect to claim spousal benefits

As things stand, I expect my future spouse's retirement benefit to be big enough that I would receive more each month by claiming spousal benefits over my own. Spousal benefits are worth up to 50% of your partner's primary insurance amount, which is the amount they'd collect if applying for benefits exactly when they reach full retirement age.

The key thing about spousal benefits is that, unlike personal retirement benefits, they do not receive delayed retirement credits. Personal benefits will increase by 8% of your primary insurance amount for each year you delay beyond your full retirement age up until age 70. Spousal benefits will max out at your full retirement age.

For me, that's age 67. As such, there's no reason I should delay claiming benefit beyond that age. That's despite the fact that I'm older than my partner, she's likely going to delay benefits until age 70, and I'll be waiting several years to switch to spousal benefits. It's worth taking the slightly smaller personal benefit for a few years before switching to the bigger spousal benefit.

3. I'm well-positioned to avoid taxes on Social Security income

One of the most overlooked challenges of collecting Social Security in your early 60s is Social Security taxation. Those taxes can completely nullify the benefits of strategies like Roth conversions and capital gains harvesting.

That's why it's important to position your finances to minimize the effect of Social Security taxes before you apply. If you don't, you'll end up decreasing the value of your benefits.

Social Security taxes are based on a metric called combined income, which is equal to the sum of your adjusted gross income, any untaxed interest income, and half your Social Security income. If your combined income exceeds certain thresholds, a portion of your Social Security income becomes taxable. The thresholds don't get adjusted for inflation, so they're increasingly difficult to avoid.

Data source: IRS.

I expect to be able to maintain a very low combined income in retirement, thanks to savings in Roth accounts and increasing my cost basis on taxable assets. We plan to stop earning income well before reaching the age of eligibility for Social Security, which will provide ample time to strategically take capital gains and convert some pre-tax retirement assets to a Roth account. As a result, we should be able to keep our adjusted gross income low in our 60s, minimizing the tax burden of Social Security.

I'm fully aware that most people aren't in the fortunate position I'm in. But doing whatever you can to position your finances strategically before you start Social Security is an important factor in making the most of your benefits, whether you're claiming at age 70 or well before it.

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