Shares of ASML, the Dutch semiconductor equipment giant, tumbled 11% on Wednesday after the company announced it could no longer confirm that it will grow in 2026. The drop wiped out over $30 billion in market value and sent shockwaves through global tech markets, as investors digested the implications for the broader semiconductor and AI industries.

The selloff followed ASML’s second-quarter earnings report, which beat expectations on revenue and net profit, with robust bookings of $6.4 billion. However, CEO Christophe Fouquet’s comments overshadowed the strong results: “While we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage,” he said, citing escalating macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, especially the threat of new tariffs on semiconductor equipment.

Smart money watches ASML for signals on the tech cycle’s health; a growth warning here may be the market’s early clue that the AI and semiconductor supercycle is reaching a plateau—or at least preparing for turbulence.

Why ASML’s outlook matters more than most

This isn’t just a company-specific event—it could be a canary in the coal mine for the global tech and AI ecosystem. Why? ASML is the world’s exclusive supplier of EUV lithography machines—the ultra-precise fabrication equipment that makes cutting-edge semiconductors possible. Every state-of-the-art AI accelerator, every data-center chip that powers generative AI, traces its technological lineage back to ASML’s tools.

So when ASML tells the market it “cannot confirm” growth for 2026—despite beating on current earnings—it’s signaling not just caution about its own pipeline, but a potential inflection point in the most future-critical segment of the electronics supply chain. In other words: if ASML’s order book slows, it means that downstream chipmakers may anticipate softer demand, have rising uncertainty about capex returns, or are bracing for policy headwinds.

The context matters: This is a moment when AI demand has been surging, but in 2025 it’s now colliding with macro uncertainty, particularly driven by U.S.-EU tariff threats, China export restrictions, and capex fatigue after a historic tech investment wave. ASML’s lead times are 12 to 18 months—with orders today reflecting confidence in global chip demand well into 2026. If that confidence is wavering, it ripples through the entire innovation economy.

ASML is not just another tech stock—it is the linchpin of the global semiconductor supply chain. The company is the world’s sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, the critical technology that enables the production of the most advanced chips used in everything from AI accelerators to smartphones and data centers.

What’s behind the growth warning?

Several factors converged to cloud ASML’s outlook. One was tariff uncertainty. President Trump’s threat of 30% tariffs on European imports, including semiconductor equipment, has rattled ASML’s customers. The company warned that tariffs on new systems and parts shipped to the U.S., as well as possible retaliatory measures, could directly hit its gross margins and delay customer investment decisions.

Ongoing trade disputes and export controls, especially involving China and the U.S., have made it harder for ASML to forecast demand. Clients are increasingly cautious, with some potentially postponing or scaling back orders. While Q2 bookings were strong, Barclays analysts noted ASML would need to double its current order pace to meet previous 2026 growth forecasts. The backlog coverage for 2026 is at its lowest in three years, raising doubts about near-term momentum.

Market reaction

The market’s response was swift and severe as ASML shares fell 11%, their steepest single-day drop since October 2024, when a disappointing third-quarter earnings report led to the stock price falling 16%. Wednesday’s selloff dragged down the broader European tech sector and hit U.S. semiconductor equipment peers such as Lam Research and Applied Materials.

In contrast, AI chipmakers such as Nvidia and AMD rose, buoyed by positive news on U.S. export policy to China, highlighting a divergence between chip designers and the equipment supply chain.

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• Prime Day is Amazon’s most important sales event of the year. It all started when Diego Piacentini, an Amazon executive, noticed the success of Alibaba’s Singles Day in China and pitched Jeff Bezos that his “everything store” do something similar. Today, Prime Day generates billions in revenue for the tech giant.

Amazon Prime Day is one of the most lucrative and influential retail events in the world. Last year, it generated a whopping $14.2 billion in sales, according to Capital One.

But the origins of this sales juggernaut trace back to a single executive’s vision and a pivotal pitch to Amazon’s founder, Jeff Bezos.

The genesis of Prime Day

In the early 2010s, Amazon’s international business was led by Diego Piacentini, a seasoned executive who had joined the company in 2000 after a successful career at Apple. As Amazon’s global footprint expanded, Piacentini was tasked with finding new ways to energize both customers and the company’s growing base of Prime members outside the U.S.

According to Brad Stone’s book “Amazon Unbound,” Piacentini was inspired by the explosive success of Alibaba’s Singles Day in China, which had quickly become the world’s largest online shopping event. So Piacentini pitched Jeff Bezos on Amazon having its own event, and Bezos was into it, thinking the primary goal would be to drive sales to Prime, the company’s subscription service.

After obtaining Bezos’s blessing, Amazon executives reportedly went back and forth on when to hold their event. But according to Stone’s book, Amazon leadership eventually opted not to go toe-to-toe with Alibaba’s Singles Day, which is held in November, and instead decided on having their own sale during the summer months, a traditionally slower time in retail. The logic there was customers would have enough money during the summer months since they weren’t doing all of their holiday shopping just yet, and that also meant there would be ample warehouse space.

Amazon Prime Day got the green light in January 2015, with the goal of launching on July 15 to coincide with Amazon’s 20th anniversary.

From ‘Project Piñata’ to ‘Christmas in July’

The internal codename for the Amazon Prime Day initiative was “Project Piñata.” Meagan Wulff Reibstein, a young product manager who spent seven years at Amazon before departing for a VP role at Zillow, was assigned to execute the plan. She traveled to Amazon’s international hubs—Tokyo, London, Paris, and Munich—to convince suppliers and partners to participate in the event.

The first Prime Day launched across nine countries, and the response was immediate. In Japan, the massive surge in traffic crashed the local website. Across Europe and the U.S., customers snapped up deals, even as some complained about limited inventory and underwhelming discounts.

Despite technical hiccups and mixed reviews, the numbers told a different story: 34.4 million items sold and 1.2 million new Prime members added in a single day. “It was Christmas in July quite frankly—a bigger day than Black Friday,” Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky told investors on an earnings call the following week.

Amazon Prime Day has only grown since then. In its second year, Prime Day sales jumped by 60%. By 2019, Amazon expanded the event to be two days, and in 2025, the event now spans four days. It kicked off on Tuesday, July 8, and runs until Friday, July 11—a full 96 hours to take advantage of deals.

Prime Day has become a crucially important event for Amazon. Last year, consumers in 23 different countries purchased over 300 million items with an average order value approaching $60. Notably, 88% of all Prime Day consumers were Prime members, and 85% of customers had been Prime members for over a year. And people tend to buy lots of Amazon products, specifically: Last year, Prime Day shoppers bought more Amazon Fire Sticks than any other item.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

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Coca-Cola will soon return to using real cane sugar in its U.S. products after decades of relying on high fructose corn syrup, according to none other than President Donald Trump, who claimed personal credit for brokering the shift.

In a social media post, the president called the move “just better” for American consumers, and also predicted “this will be a very good move by them,” referring to the Atlanta-based beverage giant.Trump revealed on social media that Coca-Cola has “agreed to use REAL Cane Sugar in Coke in the United States” after discussions between himself and company leadership. 

In a statement, a Coca-Cola company spokesperson said: “We appreciate President Trump’s enthusiasm for our iconic Coca‑Cola brand. More details on new innovative offerings within our Coca‑Cola product range will be shared soon.”

The change is significant—since the mid-1980s, virtually all Coca-Cola sold in the U.S. has been sweetened not with sugar, but with high fructose corn syrup, a less expensive alternative, but a very politically potent one.

The commercial production of high fructose corn syrup takes place in Iowa, the top corn-producing state in the U.S. It’s been a major product for agribusiness since the 1970s, with companies such as Archer Daniels Midland having key plants in Iowa. They are a big player in Washington, D.C., as is the “farm lobby,” which refers to a number of institutions that lobby on behalf of farmers’ interests. U.S. farm policy—shaped by the farm lobby—subsidizes corn heavily and imposes tariffs and quotas on imported sugar, making high fructose corn syrup the default sweetener for many U.S. food producers. All of these dynamics are reinforced by Iowa’s role in presidential politics, with the state being the first presidential caucus in the electoral calendar.

When did Coke switch to corn syrup?

Coca-Cola’s original formula, dating back to its 19th-century origins, used cane sugar as the sweetener of choice. That changed during a period of economic and regulatory upheaval in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Faced with rising sugar prices, prompted in part by U.S. government quotas and tariffs on imported sugar alongside growing subsidies for domestic corn, Coca-Cola began blending corn syrup with sugar in its beverages. The transition was complete by 1984. Even after the “New Coke” formula controversy and the return of “Coca-Cola Classic,” the drink retained high fructose corn syrup as its sweetener, not sugar.

The cult of “Mexican Coke”

Coca-Cola in other countries—most famously in Mexico and across Europe—has continued to use cane sugar, spawning a cult following for “Mexican Coke” among U.S. consumers who preferred the original taste.

American soda fans have long claimed to notice a difference in beverages sweetened with cane sugar. Imports of “Mexican Coke,” made with real sugar, became a popular niche item, prompting limited edition “throwback” sodas using cane sugar to appear periodically.

It remains unclear how quickly Coca-Cola will phase in cane sugar nationwide, and it likewise remains unclear how this move fits within Trump’s broader use of tariffs, including the tariffs predating his tenure that make sugar imports more expensive than subsidized corn. But it’s a major change beyond just a beverage giant’s soda recipe.

Coca-Cola did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Fortune has also sent requests for comment to the American Farm Bureau Federation and the Iowa Corn Promotion Board.

For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. 

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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