The Federal Reserve kept its key rate unchanged Wednesday as it waits for additional information on how tariffs and other potential disruptions will affect the economy this year.

The Fed’s policymakers signaled they still expect to cut rates twice this year, even as they also project that President Donald Trump’s import duties will push inflation higher. They also expect growth to slow and unemployment to edge up, according to their latest quarterly projections released Wednesday.

Fed policymakers had cut their rate three times late last year but have since have been on hold. Inflation has cooled steadily since January, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference that tariffs are likely to reverse that progress and push inflation higher in the coming months. The Fed expects the bump to inflation will be temporary, but they want to see more data to be sure.

“Increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity,” Powell said. “This is something we know is coming, we just don’t know the size of it.”

Changes to the Fed’s rate typically — though not always — influence borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards, and business loans.

So far inflation has continued to decline while some cracks have appeared in the economy, particularly in housing, where elevated borrowing costs are slowing sales and homebuilding. Hiring has also slowed. Such trends would typically lead the Fed to reduce its key rate, which is currently at about 4.3%.

Yet Powell said the economy remains in good shape and the Fed has to consider the potential for prices to rise soon.

“You can see perhaps a very, very slow continued cooling” in the job market, “but nothing that’s troubling at this time,” he said.

“We have to be forward looking,” Powell said later. “We expect a meaningful amount of inflation to arrive in coming months and we have to take that into account.”

Powell also said the Fed will learn much more over the summer about how tariffs will affect the economy. George Pearkes, global macro strategist for Bespoke Investment Group, said he interpreted that to mean the Fed won’t cut until September, at the earliest. Its next meeting is in July.

“Unless we see a really, really rapid deterioration in the labor market we won’t see a cut until September, and maybe not even then,” he said.

Wall Street investors currently expect the Fed to cut in September, according to futures prices tracked by CME Fedwatch.

Fed officials see inflation, according to their preferred measure, rising to 3% by the end of this year, from 2.1% in April, according to the projections released Wednesday. They also project the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5%, from 4.2% currently. Growth is expected to slow to just 1.4% this year, down from 2.5% last year.

Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and a former Fed economist, said that the projections show that policymakers do expect inflation to come down in 2026 and 2027, with the tariffs having just a temporary impact. Without the duties, officials would be more likely to cut rates soon, she said.

“The Fed seems to be in agreement that this will be temporary, but they don’t have high enough conviction yet,” she said.

So far, inflation has cooled this year to just 2.1% in April, essentially back at the central bank’s target of 2%. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, remains elevated at 2.5%.

Trump has pointed to the mild inflation figures to argue that the Fed should lower borrowing costs and has repeatedly criticized Powell for not doing so. On Wednesday he called Powell “stupid” and accused him of being “political” for not cutting rates.

“So we have no inflation, we have only success,” Trump said, before the Fed announced its decision. “And I’d like to see interest rates get down.”

Trump has previously argued that a rate cut would boost the economy. Now his focus has shifted to the federal government’s borrowing costs, which have shot higher since the pandemic, with interest payments running at an annual rate of more than $1 trillion.

Pushing the Fed to cut rates simply to save the government on its interest payments typically raises alarms among economists, because it would threaten the Fed’s congressional mandate to focus on stable prices and maximum employment.

One of Trump’s complaints is that the Fed isn’t cutting rates even as other central banks around the world have reduced their borrowing costs, including in Europe, Canada, and the U.K. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan kept its key short-term rate unchanged at 0.5%, after actually raising it recently.

But the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England have reduced their rates this year in part because U.S. tariffs are weakening their economies. So far the U.S. economy is mostly solid, with the unemployment rate low.

The Bank of England has cut its rate twice this year but is expected to keep it unchanged at 4.25% when it meets Thursday.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

© Mark Schiefelbein—AP

WASHINGTON (AP) — Retail sales fell sharply in May as consumers pulled back from a spending surge early this year to get ahead of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on nearly all imports.

Sales at retail stores and restaurants dropped 0.9% in May, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, after a decline of 0.1% in April. The figure was pulled down by a steep drop in auto sales, after Americans ramped up their car-buying in March to get ahead of Trump’s 25% duty on imported cars and car parts. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.3%.

The sales drop is hitting after sharp declines in consumer confidence this year. Still, inflation has cooled steadily and unemployment remains low, which could fuel steady spending in the coming months, as the economy has remained mostly solid.

A category of sales that excludes volatile sectors such as gas, cars, and restaurants rose last month by 0.4%, a sign that consumers are still spending on some discretionary items.

Overall, the report suggests consumers have pulled back a bit but not dramatically so. The retail sales report covers about one-third of consumer spending, with the other two-thirds consisting of spending on services. Economists expect overall consumer spending to grow in the April-June quarter.

“Today’s data suggests consumers are downshifting, but they haven’t yet slammed the brakes,” Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley wealth management, said in an email. “Like the economy as a whole, consumer spending has been resilient in the face of tariff uncertainty.”

Yet many categories saw sharp declines. Car sales plunged 3.5%, while sales at home and garden centers dropped 2.7%. They fell 0.6% at electronics and appliance stores and 0.7% at grocery stores. There were some bright spots: Sales rose 0.9% at online retailers, 0.8% at clothing stores, and 1.2% at furniture stores.

Sales at restaurants and bars, a closely watched indicator of discretionary spending, fell 0.9% in May, though that followed a solid gain of 0.8% in April.

It is a difficult time for retailers, many of whom built up large inventories this spring after Trump warned that he would impose widespread import taxes. Traffic at the port in Los Angeles has fallen sharply in recent weeks, suggesting fewer goods are entering the United States.

Some consumer products companies say they are seeing the impact of tariffs on their own costs and sales.

Paul Cosaro, CEO of Picnic Time, Inc, which makes picnic accessories like baskets, coolers, and folding chairs, said that orders from retailers are down as much as 40% this summer compared with a year ago. His company sells to a variety of stores like Target and Williams-Sonoma.

Cosaro noted that some stores have been cautious because they’re not sure how shoppers will react to higher prices. Some cancelled orders because Cosaro couldn’t tell them how much the new prices would be due to all the uncertainty. Roughly 80% of the company’s goods are made in China, with the rest in India and Vietnam.

The company, founded roughly 40 years ago and based in Moorpark, California, was forced to raise prices on average from 11% to 14% for this summer selling season, Cosaro said.

A folding outdoor chair now costs $137 this month, up from $120 in late 2024, he added. The company’s sales are still down this year, even though some shoppers accelerated their purchases out of concern that prices would rise.

“Shoppers are very price sensitive,” Cosaro said.

The company has implemented a hiring freeze because of all the extra tariff costs, he added. So far this year the company, which employs from 70 to 100 people, has had to pay $1 million in tariffs. A year ago at this time, the bill was a third of that amount.

The retail sales report comes as other evidence indicates shoppers have been pulling back more amid worries about higher prices from Trump’s tariffs.

Naveen Jaggi, president of retail advisory services in the Americas for real-estate firm JLL, said that he’s hearing from malls that sales are slowing down heading into the official summer months. Retailers are pushing up back-to-school promotions to this month from July, he said. They want to get shoppers in early for fear consumers may not want to spend in the later months when prices will likely go up, he said.

So far, Trump’s tariffs haven’t yet boosted inflation. Consumer prices rose just 2.4% in May compared with a year ago, the government said last week.

Many stores and brands, including Walmart, Lululemon, and J.M. Smucker Co., have said they plan to or have raised prices in response to tariffs.

Deckers Outdoor, which is behind such shoe labels as Hoka and Uggs, said late last month that it plans price increases, which will likely hurt sales.

“We expect to absorb a portion of the tariff impact,” Chief Financial Officer Steven Fasching told analysts. “We also believe there is potential to see demand erosion associated with the combination of price increases and general softness in the consumer spending environment.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

© Gary Hershorn—Getty Images