• President Donald Trump's tariffs could have consequences for the current world order, Deutsche Bank said.
• The bank's researchers said US stocks are deeply exposed to a global trade war.
• If Trump doubles down there will be "immense global implications" for years to come, they said.

The stock market, the economy, and the entire world order are at risk if President Donald Trump forges ahead with his tariff plans, Deutsche Bank says.

Trump's announcement last week of at least 10% tariffs on goods from almost all foreign nations — and duties exceeding 50% in some cases — sent shockwaves through global markets.

The president has stood by his plan to improve America's trading terms with its partners despite broad backlash and threats of retaliation from other world leaders. The result has been the fourth-worst two-day decline for stocks since World War II, the bank's researchers said in a note published Monday, when global stocks were deep in the red again.

Jim Reid, Deutsche's global head of macro and thematic research, and his coauthors described Trump's tariff rollout as the "biggest shock to the global trading system" since the 1970s and the "largest tax increase for the US consumer" since the Vietnam War.

They underscored that the existing trade regime has correlated with ballooning US wealth, as companies and their shareholders have benefited from better supply chains, a broader marketplace, and access to cheaper labor in emerging countries. Ending it could raise costs for companies and narrow their profit margins, weighing on their stock prices.

"US equities have arguably been the ultimate beneficiary of this era and as such have a disproportionate amount to lose by its unravelling, especially when starting valuations have been so high," they said.

Deutsche Bank's economists most recently forecast less than 1% growth this year, unemployment approaching 5%, and a spike in core inflation toward 4%.

"Given the market moves and monumental uncertainty in recent days, this could well prove to be too optimistic," the bank's researchers said, adding that Trump's intransigence has paved the way for further market chaos.

They added that if Trump doesn't find an "elegant off-ramp" but instead "doubles down," that would have "immense global implications for 2025 and the years and decades ahead."

That's because if international trade deals fall apart, it will affect America's relationships with respect to "defense, geopolitics and the multi-lateral rules-based world order," they said.

UBS economists also sounded the alarm on Monday. Assuming the tariffs aren't negotiated down, they now expect real US GDP growth of 0.4% this year — down from 1.6% — and 2.2% price growth with core inflation at 4.6% by the end of this year.

They also predicted the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 1 percentage point this year to shore up economic growth.

• Warren Buffett socked away $321 billion while waiting for stocks to crash like they did Thursday.
• The legendary investor specializes in buying cut-price assets during periods of market panic.
• Buffett gurus told BI the billionaire may wait for lower prices or a clearer outlook before buying.

Warren Buffett famously says to "be greedy when others are fearful" and "when it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble." The legendary bargain hunter has been waiting years for stocks to crash like they did on Thursday — but he might not be buying yet.

President Donald Trump's declaration of a near-universal 10% tariff on foreign goods, and even steeper import taxes for the "worst offenders" such as China, vaporized $2.4 trillion or nearly a Nvidia's worth of market value from the S&P 500 on Thursday. The benchmark stock index tumbled further on Friday.

Some of Buffett's favorite stocks got spanked with Apple, American Express, Bank of America, and Occidental Petroleum all tumbling more than 9%.

Buffett didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

The downturn is likely to hearten the Berkshire Hathaway CEO, given he's a value investor who seeks to buy businesses at a discount to their worth. He's also known to capitalize on crises, for example when he deployed a full $26 billion across five deals between 2008 and 2009.

Buffett wrote in his 2017 shareholder letter that sharp sell-offs can create "extraordinary opportunities" for investors who heed poet Rudyard Kipling's words to "keep your head when all about you are losing theirs."

However, surging valuations have priced him out of buying stocks, acquiring businesses, and even repurchasing his own company's stock in recent years.

Buffett, 94, has also offloaded a net $158 billion of stocks over the past two calendar years. Berkshire's cash pile has roughly tripled from under $110 billion in September 2022 to $321 billion at the end of 2024 — that's bigger than Coca-Cola's market value.

Armed with an overflowing war chest, Buffett appears well-placed to wade into the market rout and scoop up stocks on the cheap. The internet certainly agrees — social media is rife with comments and memes about Buffett sitting pretty while markets are in chaos.

Wall Street has also rewarded Buffett's cash hoarding: Berkshire's stock price is up about 15% this year, trouncing the S&P's near-11% decline.

The share surge has added $23 billion to Buffett's personal fortune and vaulted him past the likes of LVMH's Bernard Arnault and Oracle's Larry Ellison into fourth place on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

Yet the famously patient and disciplined investor might wait longer before pouncing.

"When prices fall, it certainly encourages Buffett to buy unless he views new permanent damage greater than the price discount," Steven Check told Business Insider. He oversees $2 billion of assets as the CEO of Check Capital Management and has attended every in-person Berkshire annual meeting since 1996.

Stocks may be cheaper than before, but Check said Buffett will likely "require a much larger drop to do significant buying."

Waiting game

Buffett's followers will likely have to wait until Berkshire's meeting in May or its second-quarter portfolio update in August to learn whether the investor topped up his holdings this week.

Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University who's been teaching Buffett-style valuation to students for decades, told BI he's "watching his next move with the most careful and anxious attention" as it will "tell us a great deal about where he thinks the economy is going."

"If he plunges into the market and starts buying, it will signal that he believes the Trump tariffs were nothing more than a minor economic annoyance that created wonderful buying opportunities," he said. Hanke is a former economic advisor to President Ronald Reagan and was the president of Toronto Trust Argentina when it was the world's best-performing mutual fund in 1995.

If Buffett holds off, Hanke said it would suggest he's keeping in mind the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of March 1930, which "broke the back of the stock market, and helped to plunge the world into the Great Depression."

Hanke's "tentative guess" is that Buffett's knowledge of economic history will lead him to "remain on the sidelines, at least for a while" until the scope of what he's dealing with grows clearer.

If the frantic selling in markets continues, Buffett's moment might come sooner rather than later.

• President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on Wednesday.
• Many commentators have questioned the tariffs and highlighted their potential economic consequences.
• One said Trump was unlikely to U-turn on the tariffs, so it was time to "sell the dip," not buy it.

President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on Wednesday — and people have been reacting as global markets take a hammering.

Here's what big names in business and economics have been saying:

Business Roundtable

Joshua Bolten, the CEO of Business Roundtable, an association that represents more than 200 CEOs, said in a statement the tariffs "run the risk of causing major harm to American manufacturers, workers, families and exporters." He added: "Damage to the US economy will increase the longer the tariffs are in place and may be exacerbated by retaliatory measures."

He said the Business Roundtable "supports President Trump's goal of securing better and fairer trade deals with our trading partners" but called on him to introduce "additional reasonable exemptions" and a "transparent, predictable exclusion process."

Larry Summers

"Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much," Larry Summers, a former Treasury secretary, wrote on X. "The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now closer to $30 trillion."

Summers added that the tariffs were the most expensive and "masochistic" the US had imposed in decades.

Mohamed El-Erian

"The price action in global financial markets in the immediate aftermath of the US tariff announcement points to major worries about global economic growth," Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of bond giant PIMCO and the chief economic advisor at Allianz, said on X.

Mariana Mazzucato

"These tariffs will cause inflation in the United States; they will cause lower consumer power of US workers. The estimates are between $1,700 to $5,000 per family in terms of the costs of these tariffs," Mariana Mazzucato, an economics professor at University College London, told ITV's "Peston" program.

Boaz Weinstein

Boaz Weinstein, Saba Capital Management's founder, doesn't expect Trump to change course, posting on X: "I'm often wrong, but I don't see him doing a u-turn. This is not a buy-the-dip opportunity. It's a sell the dip opportunity."

David Rosenberg

"So, this tariff file is now being labeled 'Make America Wealthy Again'? What is with that adverb 'again' which is defined as 'returning to a previous condition'? The previous condition, I can tell you, was not nearly as good as the current condition, seeing as US net national net worth just reached a record level of $157 TRILLION (a cool $1.2 million per household … too bad we don't all live at the average!)," David Rosenberg, the founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates, said on X.

"Have tariffs really stood in the way of wealth creation in America? I think the title should simply be the truth: 'Let's Make the World Poor Again' (and then we can buy it at a discount)," Rosenberg added.

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor emeritus of the NYU Stern School of Business, said the "Liberation Day" label was "Orwellian doublespeak."

"Whatever the consequences of these tariffs will be — ie lower growth and higher inflation and how much of it depending on the eventual size of these tariffs post-negotiations that will be ugly and long-drawn. There is absolutely no 'liberation' at all in them: not for US consumers, workers and businesses, let alone for the rest of the world," he said on X.

Paul Krugman

"I guess it's just possible that when we get details about the Trump tariffs they will be lower than what he just announced, but based on what he said, he's gone full-on crazy," Paul Krugman, a Nobel Memorial Prize-winning economist and former MIT and Princeton University professor, wrote in his Substack newsletter.

"If you had any hopes that Trump would step back from the brink, this announcement, between the very high tariff rates and the complete falsehoods about what other countries do, should kill them," Krugman added.

Howard Silverblatt

"March continued with President Trump's rapid executive orders and policy changes, as tariffs (along with their potential impact on the economy), inflation, employment and consumer spending became the main concerns of the market, which pulled back with increased trading on strong negative breadth," wrote Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst of S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a S&P Global column.

"Adding to the concern were Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) government employment reductions, as well as US layoffs, which have increased (along with retail warnings)," he added.

The Yale Budget Lab

"The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 2.3% in the short-run, the equivalent of an average per household consumer loss of $3,800 in 2024$. Annual losses for households at the bottom of the income distribution are $1,700," wrote the Yale Budget Lab in a new analysis published on April 2, shortly after Trump's blanket tariff announcement.

Jared Bernstein

"True, the United States is a large and dominant country. And it is a relatively closed country, meaning we depend less on trade than most other countries," said Jared Bernstein, former chief economist, in his newsletter. "That means, as Trump has correctly argued, we can hurt them more than they can hurt us. He fails to give a coherent rationale for why we need to start a trade war with Canada, Mexico, Japan, Europe, and other traditionally reliable trading partners."

"First, though they've been explicitly cavalier about the pain they're causing, higher inflation, slower growth, lower investment, falling stock prices — as of this moment, the Dow is down 1,200 points — and higher recession chances could force them to recant. But, at least so far, that may have been the way of Trump 1; it's not the way of Trump 2," he added.

Justin Wolfers

"Monstrously destructive, incoherent, ill-informed tariffs based on fabrications, imagined wrongs, discredited theories and ignorance of decades of evidence. And the real tragedy is that they will hurt working Americans more than anyone else," said Justin Wolfers, economics professor at University of Michigan and public policy scholar, on BlueSky.

Daryl Fairweather

"If these tariffs were more targeted and on specific goods, I wouldn't be so sure we would have stagflation. But these appear to be extremely broad, so I expect higher inflation and lower or even negative economic growth," said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin chief economist, on BlueSky.

"Home construction was already going to be weak this year, but these tariffs (combined with labor problems from immigration policy) will mean fewer homes built," she added.

Bill Gross

The latest set of tariffs is "a similar event to going off the gold standard in 1971. It's an epic event. It's not something where you can time quickly for a market bottom. It's something that we're going to have to live with as long as President Trump continues with this stance," Bill Gross, the cofounder of Pimco, told CNBC.

"I don't think he's going to back down. President Trump, to be very blunt, is a macho male, and this macho male is not going to back down tomorrow simply because the Nasdaq's down 5%," said Gross, who's also known as "Bond King."

Gross said it's not a time for investors to bottom fish, likening it to "catching a falling knife."

Steven Blitz

"Tariffs attack US trading partners but, in effect, attack US corporate profit margins first," wrote Steven Blitz, the chief US economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard. "The 40-odd years of profits rising relative to GDP has ended. The macro risk hitting markets is real, but only accentuates the devaluation process."

"Further exacerbating market volatility is redirection of foreign capital from the US to wherever multiple expansion appears more promising," Blitz wrote.

Jim O'Neill

Jim O'Neill, former chief economist at Goldman Sachs, told BBC News on Friday that the "sensible" thing to do would be for the UK to speak to other members of G7, aside from the US, about lowering trade barriers between each other, particularly for cross-border services.

He said this would be "very healthy for all those countries because it's the one area of global trade that most countries haven't done enough in."

If the US wants to continue down this "kamikaze path," the UK will have to respond, O'Neill added. "It is the US which is going to be hurt more, especially in the short-term, from these rather insane moves."

Stephanie Kelton

"Just had a journalist ask me to explain "Liberation Day,"" Stephanie Kelton, author of The Deficit Myth, wrote in a post on X. "I told him it's about liberating Americans from some of the cash in their wallets."

George Saravelos

George Saravelos, a Deutsche Bank analyst, said in a Friday note that markets were pricing in a global recession.

"This is a US-centric fiscal shock driven by the Trump administration and it is fiscal policy that can unwind it. The countries that respond the quickest and most forcefully to this shock are those whose currencies will likely be the most resilient. And, on the flipside, the more the US fiscal strategy under the Trump administration lacks visibility, the more the market will punish the dollar and US assets.

"One last point: don't expect a reluctant-to-cut Fed to support the dollar. Remember that during the European supply-shock of 2022, the ECB turned hawkish. The euro sold-off regardless because real rates and growth expectations collapsed."

Kristalina Georgieva

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that US tariffs posed a "significant risk" to the global economy.

"We are still assessing the macroeconomic implications of the announced tariff measures, but they clearly represent a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth," she said in a statement on Thursday.

Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, told Ireland's Newstalk that the tariffs would be "negative the world over."

She said Trump's move "will not be good for the global economy and it will not be good for those who inflict the tariffs and those who retaliate."