Numerous countries around the world are facing the prospect of much higher duties on their exports to the United States on Friday, a potential blow to the global economy, because they haven’t yet reached a trade deal with the Trump administration.

Some of the United States’ biggest trading partners have reached agreements, or at least the outlines of one, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Even so, those countries face much higher tariffs than were in effect before Trump took office. And other large trading partners — most notably China and Mexico — received an extension to keep negotiating and won’t be hit with new duties Friday, but they will likely end up paying more.

President Donald Trump intends the duties to bring back manufacturing to the United States, while also forcing other countries to reduce their trade barriers to U.S. exports. Trump argues that foreign exporters will pay the cost of the tariffs, but so far economists have found that most are being paid by U.S. companies. And measures of U.S. inflation have started to tick higher as prices of imported goods, such as furniture, appliances, and toys rise.

For those countries without an agreement, they could face duties of as much as 50%, including on large economies such as Brazil, Canada, Taiwan, and India. Many smaller countries are also on track to pay more, including South Africa, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and even tiny Lesotho.

The duties originated from Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” announcement that the United States would impose import taxes of up to 50% on nearly 60 countries and economies, including the 27-nation European Union. Those duties, originally scheduled for April 9, were then postponed twice, first to July 9 and then Aug. 1.

Will the deadline hold this time?

As of Thursday afternoon, White House representatives — and Trump himself — insisted that no more delays were possible.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday that Trump “at some point this afternoon or later this evening” will sign an order to impose new tariff rates starting midnight on Friday.

Countries that have not received a prior letter on tariffs from Trump or negotiated a trade framework will be notified of their likely tariff rates, Leavitt said, either in the form of a letter or Trump’s executive order. At least two dozen countries were sent letters setting out their tariff rates.

On Wednesday, Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social, “THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE IS THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE — IT STANDS STRONG, AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED.”

Which countries have a trade agreement?

In a flurry of last minute deal-making, the Trump has been announcing agreements as late as Thursday, but they are largely short on details.

On Thursday, the U.S. and Pakistan reached a trade agreement expected to allow Washington to help develop Pakistan’s largely untapped oil reserves and lower tariffs for the South Asian country.

And on Wednesday, Trump announced a deal with South Korea that would impose 15% tariffs on goods from that country. That is below the 25% duties that Trump threatened in April.

Agreements have also been reached with the European Union, Pakistan, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and the United Kingdom. The agreement with the Philippines barely reduced the tariff it will pay, from 20% to 19%.

And which countries don’t?

The exact number of countries facing higher duties isn’t clear, but the majority of the 200 have not made deals. Trump has already slapped large duties on Brazil and India even before the deadline was reached.

In the case of Brazil, Trump signed an executive order late Wednesday imposing a 50% duty on imports, though he exempted several large categories, including aircraft, aluminum, and energy products. Trump is angry at Brazil’s government because it is prosecuting its former president, Jair Bolsonaro, for attempting to overturn his election loss in 2022. Trump was indicted on a similar charge in 2023.

While Trump has sought to justify the widespread tariffs as an effort to combat the United States’ chronic trade deficits, the U.S. actually has a trade surplus with Brazil — meaning it sells more goods and services to Brazil than it buys from that country.

Negotiations between the U.S. and Canada have been complicated by the Canadian government’s announcement that it will recognize a Palestinian state in September. Trump said early Thursday that the announcement “will make it very hard” for the U.S. to reach a trade deal with Canada.

Late Wednesday, Trump said that India would pay a 25% duty on all its exports, in part because it has continued to purchase oil from Russia.

On Thursday, the White House said it had extended the deadline to reach a deal with Mexico for another 90 days, citing the complexity of the trade relationship, which is governed by the trade agreement Trump reached when he updated NAFTA in his first term.

For smaller countries caught in Trump’s cross hairs, the Aug. 1 deadline is particularly difficult because the White House has acknowledged they aren’t able to negotiate with every country facing tariff threats. Lesotho, for example, a small country in southern Africa, was hit with a 50% duty on April 2, and even though it was postponed, the threat has already devastated its apparel industry, costing thousands of jobs.

“There’s 200 countries,’’ the president acknowledged earlier this month. “You can’t talk to all of them.’’

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AP Writers Josh Boak and Wyatte Grantham-Philipps contributed to this report.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave little indication on Wednesday of bowing anytime soon to President Donald Trump’s frequent demands that he cut interest rates, even as signs of dissent emerged on the Fed’s governing board.

The Fed left its key short-term interest rate unchanged for the fifth time this year, at about 4.3%, as was expected. But Powell also signaled that it could take months for the Fed to determine whether Trump’s sweeping tariffs will push up inflation temporarily or lead to a more persistent bout of higher prices. His comments suggest that a rate cut in September, which had been expected by some economists and investors, is now less likely.

“We’ve learned that the process will probably be slower than expected,” Powell said. “We think we have a long way to go to really understand exactly how” the tariffs will affect inflation and the economy.

There were some signs of splits in the Fed’s ranks: Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voted to reduce borrowing costs, while nine officials, including Powell, favored standing pat. It is the first time in more than three decades that two of the seven Washington-based governors have dissented. One official, Governor Adriana Kugler, was absent and didn’t vote.

The choice to hold off on a rate cut will almost certainly result in further conflict between the Fed and White House, as Trump has repeatedly demanded that the central bank reduce borrowing costs as part of his effort to assert control over one of the few remaining independent federal agencies.

Powell has in the past signaled during a news conference that a rate move might be on the table for an upcoming meeting, but he gave no such hints this time. The odds of a rate cut in September, according to futures pricing, fell from nearly 60% before the meeting to just 45% after the press conference, the equivalent of a coin flip, according to CME Fedwatch.

“We have made no decisions about September,” Powell said. The chair acknowledged that if the Fed cut its rate too soon, inflation could move higher, and if it cut too late, then the job market could suffer.

Major U.S. stock indexes, which had been trading slightly higher Wednesday, went negative after Powell’s comments.

“The markets seem to think that Powell pushed back on a September rate cut,” said Lauren Goodwin, chief market strategist at New York Life Investments.

Powell also underscored that the vast majority of the committee agreed with a basic framework: Inflation is still above the Fed’s target of 2%, while the job market is still mostly healthy, so the Fed should keep rates elevated. On Thursday, the government will release the latest reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and it is expected to show that core prices, excluding energy and food, rose 2.7% from a year earlier.

Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial, says he expects the tariffs will only temporarily raise inflation, but that it will take most of the rest of this year for that to become apparent. He doesn’t expect the Fed to cut until December.

Trump argues that because the U.S. economy is doing well, rates should be lowered. But unlike a blue-chip company that usually pays lower rates than a troubled startup, it’s different for an entire economy. The Fed adjusts rates to either slow or speed growth, and would be more likely to keep them high if the economy is strong to prevent an inflationary outbreak.

Earlier Wednesday, the government said the economy expanded at a healthy 3% annual rate in the second quarter, though that figure followed a negative reading for the first three months of the year, when the economy shrank 0.5% at an annual rate. Most economists averaged the two figures to get a growth rate of about 1.2% for the first half of this year.

The dissents from Waller and Bowman likely reflect jockeying to replace Powell, whose term ends in May 2026. Waller in particular has been mentioned as a potential future Fed chair.

Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in a note to clients this week if the pair were to dissent, “it would say more about auditioning for the Fed chair appointment than about economic conditions.”

Bowman, meanwhile, last dissented in September 2024, when the Fed cut its key rate by a half-point. She said she preferred a quarter point cut instead, and cited the fact that inflation was still above 2.5% as a reason for caution.

Waller said earlier this month that he favored cutting rates, but for very different reasons than Trump has cited: Waller thinks that growth and hiring are slowing, and that the Fed should reduce borrowing costs to forestall a rise in unemployment.

There are other camps on the Fed’s 19-member rate-setting committee — only 12 of the 19 actually vote on rate decisions. In June, seven members signaled that they supported leaving rates unchanged through the end of this year, while two suggested they preferred a single rate cut. The other half supported more reductions, with eight officials backing two cuts, and two — widely thought to be Waller and Bowman — supporting three reductions.

The dissents could be a preview of what might happen after Powell steps down, if Trump appoints a replacement who pushes for the much lower interest rates the White House desires. Other Fed officials could push back if a future chair sought to cut rates by more than economic conditions would otherwise support.

Overall, the committee’s quarterly forecasts in June suggested the Fed would cut twice this year. There are only three more Fed policy meetings — in September, October, and December.

When the Fed cuts its rate, it often — but not always — results in lower borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

Some economists agree with Waller’s concerns about the job market. Excluding government hiring, the economy added just 74,000 jobs in June, with most of those gains occurring in health care.

“We are in a much slower job hiring backdrop than most people appreciate,” said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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President Donald Trump publicly scorned Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday for the cost of an extensive building renovation as the two officials began a tour of the unfinished project.

Trump said the project cost $3.1 billion, much higher than the Fed’s $2.5 billion figure, while Powell, standing next to him, silently shook his head.

“This came from us?” Powell said, then figuring out that Trump was including the renovation of the Martin Building that was finished five years ago.

“Do you expect any more additional cost overruns?” Trump asked.

“Don’t expect them,” Powell said.

Trump said in his career as a real estate developer he would fire someone for cost overruns. The president joked that he would back off Powell if he lowered interest rates.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve, known for its tight lips, structured formality and extraordinary power to shape the global economy, opened up a costly building renovation Thursday to reporters and President Donald Trump.

Trump and his allies say a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed headquarters and a neighboring building reflects an institution run amok — a belief they hope to verify in an afternoon tour of the construction site. The Fed allowed reporters to tour the building before the visit by Trump, who, in his real estate career, has bragged about his lavish spending on architectural accoutrements that gave a Versailles-like golden flair to his buildings.

The visit is an attempt to further ratchet up pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whom the Republican president has relentlessly attacked for not cutting borrowing costs. Trump’s criticisms have put the Fed, a historically independent institution, under a harsh spotlight. Undermining its independence could reduce the Fed’s ability to calm financial markets and stabilize the U.S. economy.

“This stubborn guy at the Fed just doesn’t get it — Never did, and never will,” Trump said Wednesday on Truth Social. “The Board should act, but they don’t have the Courage to do so!”

Journalists get rare tour of Fed renovation

On Thursday, reporters wound through cement mixers, front loaders, and plastic pipes as they got a close-up view of the active construction site that encompasses the Fed’s historic headquarters, known as the Marriner S. Eccles building, and a second building across 20th Street in Washington.

Fed staff, who declined to be identified, said that greater security requirements, rising materials costs and tariffs, and the need to comply with historic preservation measures drove up the cost of the project, which was budgeted in 2022 at $1.9 billion.

The staff pointed out new blast-resistant windows and seismic walls that were needed to comply with modern building codes and security standards set out by the Department of Homeland Security. The Fed has to build with the highest level of security in mind, Fed staff said, including something called “progressive collapse,” in which only parts of the building would fall if hit with explosives.

Sensitivity to the president’s pending visit among Fed staff was high during the tour. Reporters were ushered into a small room outside the Fed’s boardroom, where 19 officials meet eight times a year to decide whether to change short-term interest rates. The room, which will have a security booth, is oval-shaped, and someone had written “oval office” on plywood walls.

The Fed staff downplayed the inscription as a joke. When reporters returned to the room later, it had been painted over.

During the tour, Fed staff also showed the elevator shaft that congressional critics have said is for “VIPs” only. Powell has since said it will be open to all Fed staff. The renovation includes an 18-inch (45-cm) extension so the elevator reaches a slightly elevated area that is now accessible only by steps or a ramp. A planning document that said the elevator will only be for the Fed’s seven governors was erroneous and later amended, staff said.

Renovations have been in the works for a while

Plans for the renovation were first approved by the Fed’s governing board in 2017. The project then wended its way through several local commissions for approval, at least one of which, the Commission for Fine Arts, included several Trump appointees. The commission pushed for more marble in the second of the two buildings the Fed is renovating, known as 1951 Constitution Avenue, specifically in a mostly glass extension that some of Trump’s appointees derided as a “glass box.”

Fed staff also said tariffs and inflationary increases in building material prices drove up costs. Trump in 2018 imposed a 25% duty on steel and 10% on aluminum. He increased them this year to 50%. Steel prices are up about 60% since the plans were approved, while construction materials costs overall are up about 50%, according to government data.

Fed staff also pointed to the complication of historic renovations — both buildings have significant preservation needs. Constructing a new building on an empty site would have been cheaper, they said.

As one example, the staff pointed reporters to where they had excavated beneath the Eccles building to add a floor of mechanical rooms, storage space, and some offices. The Fed staff acknowledged such structural additions underground are expensive, but said it was done to avoid adding HVAC equipment and other mechanics on the roof, which is historic.

The Fed has previously attributed much of the project’s cost to underground construction. It is also adding three underground levels of parking for its second building. Initially the central bank proposed building more above ground, but ran into Washington, D.C.’s height restrictions, forcing more underground construction.

Renovation project could be impetus to push out Powell

Trump wants Powell to dramatically slash the Fed’s benchmark interest rate under the belief that inflation is not a problem, but Powell wants to see how Trump’s tariffs impact the economy before making any rate cuts that could potentially cause inflation to accelerate.

The renovation project has emerged as a possible justification by Trump to take the extraordinary step of firing Powell for cause, an act that some administration officials have played down given that the Fed chair’s term ends in May 2026. White House budget director Russell Vought suggested in a July 10 letter to Powell that changes to the renovations in order to save money might have violated the National Capital Planning Act.

Fed staff said there were just two changes to the plans they had submitted to the National Capital Planning Commission, and neither were significant enough to warrant a re-submission of the plans. They removed a seating area on the roof of the Eccles building, because it was an amenity, and two water features in front of the second building, which they said saved money.

More recently, Trump has said he has no plans to oust Powell, which could be illegal based on a note in a May Supreme Court ruling. The Supreme Court found that Trump had the power to remove board members of other independent agencies, but indicated that a Fed chair could only be removed for cause.

Pushing Powell out also would almost certainly jilt global markets, potentially having the opposite effect that Trump wants as he pushes for lower borrowing costs.

Not everyone in Trump’s administration agrees with the president’s contention that Powell needs to resign.

“There’s nothing that tells me that he should step down right now,” said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whom Trump has floated as a potential replacement for Powell, in a recent interview with Fox Business. “He’s been a good public servant.”

When asked last week if the costly rebuilding could be grounds to fire Powell, Trump said, “I think it sort of is.”

“When you spend $2.5 billion on, really, a renovation,” Trump said, “I think it’s really disgraceful.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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