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Received yesterday — 28 July 2025

Facing Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU couldn’t risk fighting a trade war with the U.S., analyst says

28 July 2025 at 17:34
  • The U.S.-EU trade deal has been blasted as too lopsided in favor of President Donald Trump, as it sets tariffs higher than Europe wanted and pledges hundreds of billions of dollars to be spent in America. But according to an analyst at the Brookings Institution, that ignores a crucial geopolitical angle: The EU needs U.S. weapons to help Ukraine fight Russia.

The trade deal President Donald Trump announced Sunday with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen didn’t go over well in some parts of Europe.

One French executive said Trump “humiliated us,” and French Prime Minister François Bayrou described the deal as “submission.” Economist Olivier Blanchard blasted it as “completely unequal” and a defeat for the EU.

That’s as the U.S. sets a 15% tariff rate for most EU products, less than the 30% Trump threatened but more than the 10% Europe sought. The EU also pledged to invest $600 billion in the U.S., buy $750 billion of American energy products, and load up on “vast amounts” of U.S. weapons.

But according to Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, the deal isn’t a defeat if you look at it from a different point of view.

“Instead, it’s recognition of economic and geopolitical realities whereby the EU needs the U.S. more than the other way around,” he wrote in a Substack post. “At the end of the day, the EU needs U.S. weapons to keep Ukraine afloat into its struggle for survival against Russia. That just isn’t a setting where you escalate a trade conflict.”

In fact, Trump has warmed up considerably toward the European view on Ukraine, which has been fighting off Russia’s invasion for more than three years.

After expressing deep skepticism on U.S. support for Kyiv, berating Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House, and temporarily cutting off military aid, Trump has helped reinforce Ukraine.

Earlier this month, he vowed to send more Patriot missile-defense systems to Ukraine and agreed to a plan where European nations buy American weapons, then transfer them to Ukraine.

Trump has also indicated he’s fed up with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s lack of progress in peace talks. And on Monday, Trump gave Moscow less than two weeks to reach a deal or else face steep sanctions.

Meanwhile, analysts at Macquarie also noted that after markets previously saw the U.S. abandoning its global security obligations, the recent deals with the EU, the U.K., and Japan signal an effort to heal those relationships.

“In the background has been a renewed commitment to U.S. geopolitical engagement, too, of course—a recommitment to Ukraine’s security, taking out Iran’s nuclear assets, etc.,” they said in a note.

To be sure, Europe has also committed to rearming its own military forces and has pledged massive spending increases, including money for homegrown defense contractors.

But that will take time, as NATO forces are already highly reliant on and integrated with American weapons systems.

Despite recent transatlantic tensions, there is greater urgency in Europe to rearm as the Russia threat looms over the entire continent, not just Ukraine.

In February, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service assessed the risk from Russia once its Ukraine war stops or freezes in place.

Russia could launch a local war against a bordering country within six months, a regional war in the Baltics within two years, and a large-scale attack on Europe within five years if the U.S. does not get involved, according to a translation of the report from Politico.

“Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided,” the report said. “This is particularly true if Russia assesses that the U.S. cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

© Diego Herrera Carcedo—Anadolu/Getty Images

Ukrainian soldiers from the Donetsk oblast on July 24.
Received before yesterday

Dow futures rise on US-EU trade pact as investors brace for fast and furious week of earnings, China talks, Fed, GDP, jobs report, tariff deadline

27 July 2025 at 22:21
  • U.S. stock futures pointed to more gains after a week filled with record highs as Wall Street cheered the U.S.-EU trade deal announced on Sunday. Investors are also bracing for a frantic week loaded with market-moving events such as earnings from top companies, key economic reports, the Fed’s policy meeting and more trade news.

Wall Street looks to begin a jam-packed week on a high note as investors cheer the U.S.-EU trade deal that was announced on Sunday.

The agreement with America’s biggest trading partner removes a key source of market uncertainty and the threat of a damaging trade war. It also adds to an increasingly bullish narrative as the S&P 500 notched five record highs last week.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 161 points, or 0.36%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.34%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.46%.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was flat at 4.386%. The U.S. dollar dipped 0.12% against the euro but was steady against the yen.

Trump’s deals with the EU and Japan set 15% tariffs rates on both trade parters, who have also vowed to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the U.S.

Gold edged down 0.15% to $3,330.50 per ounce. U.S. oil prices rose 0.1% to $65.22 per barrel, and Brent crude climbed 0.1% to $68.51.

Investors will not be able to look away over the coming week as every single day could produce significant market-moving news.

High-stakes trade negotiations between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled to start on Monday in Stockholm. That comes as a tariff truce between the two sides is due to end Aug. 12, though they are reportedly going to extend the deadline by 90 days.

Tariff drama will continue throughout the week as other countries try to reach deals with the U.S. before Friday’s deadline, when a pause on aggressive “reciprocal” rates will expire.

Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs face legal challenges, with a court hearing scheduled Thursday on whether the president has authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose wide-ranging duties.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day policy meeting. Analysts don’t expect the central bank to adjust rates, but Governor Christopher Waller has indicated he will dissent and call for a cut.

Chairman Jerome Powell’s press briefing on Wednesday afternoon will likely be dominated by questions related to the White House’s attacks about renovations at the Fed’s headquarters and calls from Trump allies for Powell to be ousted due to the project’s cost overruns.

Meanwhile, several closely watched datasets are due that will offer more clues on how tariffs may—or may not—be impacting the economy. On Tuesday, reports on consumer confidence, home prices, and job openings will come out.

On Wednesday, ADP’s private-sector payroll survey, second-quarter GDP data, and pending home sales are scheduled.

On Thursday, weekly jobless claims and the personal consumption expenditures report, which includes the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, are due.

And on Friday, the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing activity index, and construction spending round out the week in data.

Don’t forget earnings. Boeing announces quarterly results on Tuesday, Microsoft follows on Wednesday, while Apple and Amazon report Thursday. Oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron put out their numbers on Friday. 

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

© Spencer Platt—Getty Images

Wall Street is bracing for a week filled with several market-moving events.

Trump scores another big trade deal after securing promise of massive investment, but China will be less willing to cave, analyst says

27 July 2025 at 20:18
  • President Donald Trump said the EU will invest $600 billion in the U.S., buy $750 billion of American energy products, and purchase “vast amounts” of weapons as part of a trade deal that sets a 15% tariff. It comes a week after a similar agreement with Japan, which pledged to invest $550 billion in key U.S. industrial sectors.

Now that trade deals have been clinched with the European Union and Japan, the U.S. looks to focus on China as the world’s two biggest economies prepare for high-stakes talks.

Negotiations between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled to start on Monday in Stockholm. 

That comes as a trade truce between the two sides is due to end Aug. 12, though they are reportedly going to extend the deadline by 90 days.

U.S. deals with Japan and the EU could offer a blueprint for China. The EU will invest $600 billion in the U.S., buy $750 billion of American energy products and purchase “vast amounts” of weapons, according to Trump.

It comes a week after a similar agreement with Japan, which vowed to invest $550 billion in key U.S. industrial sectors. Both the EU and Japan will face a 15% tariff on most of their exports to the U.S.

Bessent highlighted the $550 billion pledge as a key reason the U.S. and Japan were able to settle on a levy that was lower than the 25% rate Trump had threatened earlier.

“They got the 15% rate because they were willing to provide this innovative financing mechanism,” he told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, when asked if other countries could get a similar rate.

Similarly, Trump had hinted that the EU would have to “buy down” the threatened tariff rate of 30% and pointed to the Japan deal.

But talks with Beijing may be tougher.

“When Japan broke down and made a deal the EU had little choice,” Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, said in a note on Sunday. “The biggest piece in the trade deal puzzle still remains, and the Chinese are unlikely to be as willing to fold.”

Without a lasting agreement between the U.S. and China, tariffs could soar back to prohibitively high levels that would effectively cut off trade. In April, Trump had set tariffs on China at 145%, prompting Beijing to retaliate with its own levy of 125%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has reached deals elsewhere in Asia, with the Philippines and Indonesia facing 19% tariffs while Vietnam has a 20% duty. That’s as Trump seeks to discourage the trans-shipment of Chinese goods via other countries in the region.

Any pledges of investment in the U.S. also come as Trump’s tariffs face legal challenges, with a court hearing scheduled Thursday on whether the president has authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose wide-ranging duties.

On Sunday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that the EU’s $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases would come over the next three years, meaning they will happen while Trump is in office.

But U.S. tariffs could be invalidated before any money is spent, and Wall Street is skeptical that Japan will fully deliver on a target that isn’t a binding commitment.

Analysts at Piper Sandler have concluded that Trump’s tariffs are illegal and noted that the $550 billion Japanese investment comes with few concrete details.

“Our trading partners and major multinationals know Trump’s tariffs are on shaky legal ground,” they wrote. “Therefore, we find it hard to believe many of them are going to make massive investments in the US they would not have otherwise made in response to tariffs that may not last.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

© Li Ying—Xinhua via Getty Images

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng in London on June 9.

U.S. and EU reach a trade deal that sets 15% tariff rate and pledges hundreds of billions in investments

27 July 2025 at 18:56
  • President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met in Scotland on Sunday to iron out a U.S.-EU trade deal. Without an agreement, the EU was due to get hit with a 30% tariff rate on Aug. 1, up from the current “reciprocal” duty of 10%. Last week, Trump reached a trade deal with Japan that set a 15% rate.

The U.S. and European Union agreed on trade terms that include a 15% rate on most EU products as well as hundreds of billions of dollars of investments in American industry.

President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met in Scotland on Sunday to iron out the agreement.

Trump said the EU will invest $600 billion in the U.S. and buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products, with “vast amounts” of American weapons in the mix. He also said the EU will be “opening up their countries at zero tariff.”

Von der Leyen said the 15% rate was “all inclusive,” but Trump later added that it didn’t apply to pharmaceuticals and metals though it does to autos.

“I think that basically concludes the deal,” he told reporters. “It’s the biggest of all the deals.”

Von der Leyen also said the agreement would “rebalance” trade between the two partners. The U.S. goods trade deficit with the 27-member EU was $235.6 billion in 2024, a 12.9% increase from 2023, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

She later confirmed that the $750 billion in U.S. energy purchases would come over the next three years, while adding that both sides will drop tariffs to zero on aircraft, plane parts, certain chemicals, and chip equipment, as well as some farm products, generic drugs, and raw materials. No decisions have been made on a rate for wine and spirits, she added.

The Distilled Spirits Council of the United States hailed the agreement, though U.S. and EU tariffs on spirits still must be negotiated.

“We are optimistic that in the days ahead this positive meeting and agreement will lead to a return to zero-for-zero tariffs for U.S. and EU spirits products, which will benefit not only our nation’s distillers, but also the American workers and farmers who support them from grain to glass,” CEO Chris Swonger said in a statement.

But von der Leyen also introduced some uncertainty by saying the 15% rate does apply to pharmaceuticals while also suggesting more details will come from the U.S. and that pharma overall is “on a different sheet of paper.”

A deal with America’s biggest trading partner removes a key source of market uncertainty and the threat of a damaging trade war.

Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said in a note that European carmakers are among the big winners from the deal as tariffs on autos will drop to 15% from the current 25%, securing a carve-out similar to what Japan obtained last week. U.S. defense and energy stocks also stand to gain.

“Stocks hardly need much of an excuse to rally right now, and agreement of the ‘biggest ever deal’—Trump’s words, not mine—not only removes a key left tail risk that the market had been concerned about, but also yet again reiterates that the direction of travel remains away from punchy rhetoric, and towards trade deals done,” he wrote.

Heading into their meeting, Trump and von der Leyen said they saw a fifty-fifty chance of reaching a deal. Trump ruled out pharmaceuticals from any deal and said the tariff rate on the EU wouldn’t go below 15%.

The EU already faces a 50% U.S. tariff on steel and aluminum. Without a deal by Aug. 1, the EU was set to get hit with a 30% “reciprocal” tariff, up from 10%.

Last week, Trump reached a trade deal with Japan that set a 15% rate and included a pledge for Tokyo to invest $550 billion in key U.S. industrial sectors, with Trump able to direct the funds.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Japan’s investment offer was key to clinching a trade deal and suggested it could help other countries get a comparable rate, though Wall Street analysts have expressed skepticism that the money will fully materialize.

In fact, Trump hinted that the EU would have to “buy down” the threatened tariff rate of 30% and pointed to the Japan deal.

In case no deal with the U.S. was made, the EU had already preplanned retaliatory tariffs of up to 30% on more than $100 billion worth of American exports, such as aircraft, cars, and bourbon.

Meanwhile, other U.S. trading partners are staring down the Aug. 1 deadline, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that no further extensions will be given.

But the U.S. and China are reportedly extending their trade truce by 90 days as talks between Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled to start on Monday in Stockholm. Without an extension, their tariff pause was scheduled to end on Aug. 12.

“When Japan broke down and made a deal the EU had little choice. The biggest piece in the trade deal puzzle still remains, and the Chinese are unlikely to be as willing to fold,” Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, said in a note. “The next big durable theme in markets is security, and the EU deal only accelerates it.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

© Andrew Harnik—Getty Images

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Donald Trump at Trump Turnberry golf club in Scotland on Sunday.

‘US exceptionalism roars back’ as markets defy doomsayers and draw record foreign inflows after panic over Trump tariffs

27 July 2025 at 16:05
  • Foreign investors returned to U.S. stocks and bonds in force in May, just a month after retreating in the wake of President Donald Trump’s unexpectedly aggressive tariffs. New data show record net inflows, as the highest tariff rates were on hold to allow breathing room for trade talks. U.S. stocks have since retaken record highs, though bond yields remain elevated.

Just as American consumers have demonstrated extraordinary resilience amid President Donald Trump’s tariffs, foreign investors apparently have a strong stomach for market chaos.

The most recent data from the Treasury Department shows that foreigners plowed a net $311.1 billion into U.S. securities in May, a record high, after pulling out $14.2 billion in April.

“All this is notable because so many commentators prophesied the end of US ‘exceptionalism’ after the turbulence of recent months,” Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote Wednesday in a post titled “US exceptionalism roars back” on his Substack. “The reality is that markets are far more accepting of all the ups and downs than people realize. US ‘exceptionalism’ is alive and well.”

Meanwhile, for the 12 months through May, net foreign inflows neared their all-time high from July 2023, when they topped $1.4 trillion to mark the peak of the American exceptionalism narrative in markets, he added.

The rebound in May signals a stunning turnaround from April, as Wall Street feared the end of U.S. supremacy in the global economy and markets.

In the immediate aftermath of “Liberation Day,” the S&P 500 flirted with a bear market, crashing nearly 20% from its prior high while the Nasdaq passed that threshold.

The 10-year Treasury yield initially plunged but then soared more than 70 basis points in just days as investors worried top U.S. debt holders would dump their holdings.

But a month later, the opposite happened.

“The hurdle for the US to experience genuine capital flight is high and certainly wasn’t breached in April,” Brooks wrote.

To be sure, the 10-year yield remains above its pre-Liberation Day level, and the dollar has suffered its worst first half in more than 50 years.

And while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have retaken their prior records and continue to charge even higher, stock indexes in Europe and China are still outperforming U.S. rivals.

Meanwhile, talks with Japan and trade partners have cemented tariffs rates that are higher than the initial 10% baseline. Negotiations with other countries are still ongoing, and failure to reach a deal could send tariff rates even higher.

Nevertheless, market veteran Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, was also heartened by the data showing record inflows into U.S. markets.

“So, we take comfort from the data that confirm that it is the bears on the outlook for a massive selloff in US bonds, US equities, and the US dollar who might be delusional, not us,” he wrote on Monday. “Our faith in the kindness of strangers has been validated by the latest Treasury data.

Just a few months ago, top names on Wall Street were sounding the alarm on Trump’s tariffs and their long-term repercussions.

Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin warned in April that the country was eroding its “brand,” explaining that from American culture to its financial and military strength, the U.S. is an aspiration for most of the world.

 “On the financial markets, no brand can compare to the brand of the U.S. Treasuries… we put that brand at risk,” he said, adding that it takes a very long time to remove the tarnish on a brand. 

In May, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said the era of U.S. exceptionalism has “been put on pause.”

And last month, Deutsche Bank said America’s prized exceptionalism is the collateral damage of Trump’s tariff war.

“Our outlook argues that the structural foundations of U.S. exceptionalism—particularly the ability to finance itself cheaply via the dollar’s reserve status—have begun to erode,” economist Jim Reid wrote in a note. “So we remain structurally bearish on the dollar and expect U.S. term premia to keep rising.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

© Nicolas Economou—NurPhoto via Getty Images

Foreign investors plowed a net $311.1 billion into U.S. securities in May, a record high, after pulling out $14.2 billion in April.

Here’s how the Federal Reserve funds itself, including renovations, without taxpayer dollars

26 July 2025 at 20:33
  • The White House’s recent criticism of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation project has highlighted the central bank’s sources of funding. Unlike federal departments that receive taxpayer dollars via appropriations from Congress, the Fed is self-funded, largely via interest income from government securities it holds.

The Federal Reserve’s funding has come under scrutiny as the White House attacks the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation for cost overruns.

That controversy was underscored on Thursday, when President Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell disagreed over the cost during a visit to the central bank. Trump’s allies have suggested the project could be grounds for ousting Powell, but the president has said he would not fire him, though Trump continues to demand lower rates.

Unlike the Pentagon and a new weapons system that has blown through its budget, the Fed and its operations are funded differently.

While the Defense Department and other executive branches receive money from Congress, the Fed is self-funded, largely via interest income from government securities it holds.

That means no taxpayer dollars have been appropriated for Fed operations — including building projects like the headquarters renovation.

Most of the Fed’s income comes from assets such as Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities that sit on the central bank’s balance sheet and earn interest.

That balance sheet exploded in size during the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19 pandemic as the Fed bought trillions of dollars of bonds to prop up the economy.

Other sources of income include interest on foreign currency investments held by the Fed; fees for services like check clearing, funds transfers, and clearinghouse operations provided to depository institutions; and interest on loans to depository institutions. 

To be sure, the Fed’s mission isn’t to maximize its earnings from trading securities. Instead, it has a dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. Buying and selling assets is only a means for achieving those ends.

Meanwhile, the Fed also has costs, including interest payments on reserve balances, interest payments on securities sold via repurchase agreements, and operational costs like payroll and its buildings. Costs go up when the Fed hikes interest rates like it did in 2022 and 2023 to tamp down inflation.

When income exceeds those costs, the Fed hands over the surplus to the Treasury Department. In fact, in the decade before COVID, the Fed sent about $1 trillion to the Treasury.

When the Fed’s costs exceed its income, the central bank creates an IOU known as a “deferred asset” to pay for operations. As interest rates rose, the Fed’s deferred asset grew from $133 billion in 2023 to nearly $216 billion in 2024. As of Wednesday, it was $236.6 billion.

Once rates come down further and income tops losses again, the Fed will pay back the deferred asset and then resume giving the Treasury any excess earnings.

“In conclusion, tighter monetary policy to rein in inflation has resulted in a reduction of net income for the Fed,” the St. Louis Fed said in a 2023 explainer. “This does not mean that the Treasury has to recapitalize the Fed, but rather that the Fed records a negative liability in the form of a deferred asset. This deferred asset accumulates until the Fed sees positive net income, which should happen once interest rates on the long-duration assets it owns start exceeding the interest paid on bank reserves and reverse repo facilities.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

© Chip Somodevilla—Getty Images

President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell tour the Federal Reserve’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project on Thursday.

US-Japan trade deal gives Trump control over $550 billion in investments. It could be ‘vapor ware’ — and a model for other countries

26 July 2025 at 18:27
  • One of the provisions of the trade deal that set a 15% tariff on Japan is a pledge from Tokyo to invest $550 billion in key American sectors. The White House said the money will be deployed “at President Trump’s direction,” potentially giving him a bigger say in U.S. industrial policy. But details remain thin, and analysts are skeptical.

The pledge from Japan to invest $550 billion in key U.S. industries could show other countries how to clinch a trade deal with the U.S., even as analysts question how real that money is.

As part of the agreement that set a 15% tariff rate on Japan, the White House said it includes a “Japanese/USA investment vehicle” that will be deployed “at President Trump’s direction” into strategic sectors.

They include energy infrastructure and production, semiconductors, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, and shipbuilding, according to a fact sheet from the administration. The U.S. would retain 90% of the profits, though the Japanese government believes profits will be split based on “the degree of contribution and risk taken by each party,” according to the Financial Times.

Still, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted the fund as a key reason the U.S. and Japan were able to settle on a levy that was lower than the 25% rate Trump had threatened earlier.

“They got the 15% rate because they were willing to provide this innovative financing mechanism,” he told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, when asked if other countries could get a similar rate.

Indeed, analysts at Bank of America said that the Japan deal “looks like a reasonable blueprint” for other auto-exporting countries like South Korea.

Both countries have similar trade characteristics with the U.S., such as high current account surpluses, high U.S.-bound exports, and less open domestic markets via non-tariff measures, the bank said in a note on Friday.

At the same time, the U.S. is also negotiating deals with the European Union and other trading partners ahead of an Aug .1 deadline, when Trump’s pause on his reciprocal tariffs will expire.

But Wall Street has serious doubts that the $550 billion will actually materialize. Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute and a former Bank of Japan policymaker, said in a note Wednesday that the investment pledge is merely a target and not a binding promise.

“In reality, under the Trump administration, many Japanese companies likely view the business environment in the U.S. as deteriorating due to tariffs and other factors,” he explained. “Furthermore, at current exchange rates, labor costs in the U.S. are extremely high, providing little incentive for Japanese firms to expand investment there. If anything, we may see a stronger trend toward diversifying investments away from the U.S.”

Meanwhile, Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Brad Setser, a former U.S. Trade Representative advisor and Treasury Department official, similarly expressed skepticism about the money.

“Odds are it is vapor ware, beyond the known deals (Alaska LNG),” he posted on X on Wednesday, likening it to a highly touted product that may never become available, “but it would be strange (and would potentially set up future problems) if the US relied almost entirely on other people’s money to fund its own industrial strategies.”

He later added “there is a lot less here than meets the eye,” and pointed out that the industrial sectors highlighted as areas for investment are already logical ones for Japan, given current supply-chain concerns.

A source familiar with the matter acknowledged to Fortune that a lot of details of the $550 billion have yet to be ironed out. That includes the timeframe of the investment as well as an advisory board and guardrails against potential conflicts of interest.

But the source added that the investment would be funded by the Japanese government and is not a just pledge from Tokyo to buy commodities or for Japanese companies to steer investments into the U.S.

It also means Japan is fronting the cash to finance projects that are likely to be in the private sector, the source said, offering a hypothetical example of a chip company looking to build a U.S. plant.

Under this scenario, the investment vehicle could finance construction of the factory and lease it out at favorable terms to the chip company, with 90% of the rent revenue going to the U.S. government.

The $550 billion pledge also comes as Trump’s tariffs face legal challenges, with a court hearing scheduled Thursday on whether the president has authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose wide-ranging duties.

That could make it attractive for countries to promise a lot of money sometime in the future to obtain immediate tariff relief, while running out the clock as legal battles play out.

Analysts at Piper Sandler have concluded that Trump’s tariffs are illegal and noted that the $550 billion Japanese investment comes with few concrete specifics.

“Our trading partners and major multinationals know Trump’s tariffs are on shaky legal ground,” they wrote. “Therefore, we find it hard to believe many of them are going to make massive investments in the US they would not have otherwise made in response to tariffs that may not last.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

© Mandel Ngan—AFP via Getty Images

President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba outside the West Wing of the White House on Feb. 7.

Gwyneth Paltrow tackles Astronomer’s most common questions as ‘very temporary’ spokesperson — ‘OMG! What the actual f’

26 July 2025 at 16:03
  • The data infrastructure and operations company showed it also has a sense of humor after its CEO and HR chief resigned amid fallout from a kiss-cam moment that captured them hugging during a Coldplay concert. The company posted a video of actress Gwyneth Paltrow, the ex wife of Coldplay singer Chris Martin, addressing the company’s most common questions.

Astronomer showed it also has a sense of humor after its CEO and HR chief resigned amid fallout from a kiss-cam moment that captured them hugging during a Coldplay concert.

The data infrastructure and operations company posted a video late Friday of actress Gwyneth Paltrow, who said she was hired on a “very temporary basis” to speak on behalf of the more than 300 employees at Astronomer.

“Astronomer has gotten a lot of questions over the last few days, and they wanted me to answer the most common ones,” she said. 

The first question was shown in text on screen as, ‘OMG! What the actual f,’ to which Paltrow enthusiastically replied, “Yes, Astronomer is the best place to run Apache Airflow unifying the experience of running data, ML, and AI pipelines at scale! We’ve been thrilled so many people have a newfound interest in data workflow automation!”

The other common question shown on screen was, “How is your social media team holding,” prompting Paltrow to respond by saying, “Yes, there is still room available at our Beyond Analytics event in September.”

The video came at the end of a tumultuous period for Astronomer. The once-obscure company went viral after Coldplay singer Chris Martin, who was previously married to Paltrow, spotted the company’s Andy Byron and Kristin Cabot hugging during a kiss-cam moment at a concert and said they are “having an affair or they’re just very shy.” 

Byron, who is married, and Cabot, attempted to hide from the cameras. They have since resigned from their respective roles as CEO and HR chief.

On Monday, Astronomer’s interim CEO and cofounder, Pete DeJoy, addressed the public for the first time since taking over for his scandal-laden predecessor.

“The events of the past few days have received a level of media attention that few companies—let alone startups in our small corner of the data and AI world—ever encounter,” he wrote on LinkedIn. “The spotlight has been unusual and surreal for our team and, while I would never have wished for it to happen like this, Astronomer is now a household name.”

Meanwhile, Paltrow also sought to help steer the public away from the scandal in her video for Astronomer on Friday.

“We will now be returning to what we do best: delivering game-changing results for our customers,” she said cheerfully. “Thank you for your interest in Astronomy.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

© Christopher Polk—NBC/NBCU Photo Bank/NBC via Getty Images

Singer Chris Martin and actress Gwyneth Paltrow at the 71st Annual Golden Globe Awards held at the Beverly Hilton Hotel on January 12, 2014.
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