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Received yesterday — 13 June 2025

Why APA Stock Just Popped

Independent oil and gas producer APA (NASDAQ: APA) gained 3.8% through 1:30 p.m. ET as news continues to pour in concerning Israel's attacks on Iran, and Iran's response to same.

Israeli warplanes struck multiple targets in Iran last night, prompting drone strike reprisals from Iran, and threats of more of the same. Investors worry oil supplies from Middle East producers could be at risk, and oil prices are on the rise in anticipation of this.

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Oil drill.

Image source: Getty Images.

What this means for oil prices

So far this afternoon, OilPrice.com is clocking a 6.5% rise in the price of WTI crude oil to $72.50 per barrel. International benchmark Brent Crude oil is up 6.4% and selling for just under $74 a barrel.

It's a knee-jerk reaction to the Israel-Iran news, to be sure, but don't expect these price rises to disappear anytime soon. To the contrary, as the conflict continues and potentially widens to include neighboring countries, worries could rise even further -- and oil prices along with them.

Is APA stock a buy?

That's not necessarily bad news if you're invested in oil stocks, however. Logically, if the price of oil rises, then the profits of companies that sell oil, and their stock prices, will also rise. In the case of APA, we're looking at a mid-cap energy stock that earned $804 million in profit last year even before prices began rising, and that trades for only about 7.2 times trailing earnings today.

APA also pays a generous 5% dividend yield. Arguably best of all, APA generates superior free cash flow of $1.2 billion, or about 20% more than reported trailing-12-month earnings. This is unusual for an energy stock. It's a strong argument in favor of buying APA stock, whatever happens in the Middle East.

Should you invest $1,000 in Apa right now?

Before you buy stock in Apa, consider this:

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Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $655,255!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $888,780!*

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*Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apa. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why Sherwin-Williams Stock Just Dropped

Ask Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW) why its stock price is going down today, and your reply will probably be to ask Citigroup instead.

This morning, the investment bank downgraded shares of the paint maker from buy to neutral, and Sherwin-Williams stock is down 3.3% through 12:20 p.m. ET in response.

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Smiling couple painting the walls of their house.

Image source: Getty Images.

What Citi thinks about Sherwin-Williams stock

"Housing dynamics" look "suppressed," warns Citi analyst Pat Cunningham in a note covered on StreetInsider.com today. Interest rates are high, and the likelihood of Federal Reserve cuts that would lower those rates looks slim. (Earlier today, J.P. Morgan's chief economist predicted the next Fed meeting will vote "unanimously" to leave rates unchanged.)

In the current economic environment, therefore, Citi says it has little "confidence in a material 2H25 US housing market recovery," nor a "favorable risk/reward" for buying Sherwin-Williams stock at its present price.

Is Sherwin-Williams stock a buy?

With its fortunes tied largely to the health of the residential housing market, Sherwin-Williams stock looks pricey at 34 times earnings, a projected growth rate of only 10%, and a meager dividend yield of just 0.9%. A better bet in the housing sector, thinks Citi, might be construction products company RPM International (NYSE: RPM), whose business is less tied to residential.

Despite its slower (8%) growth rate, RPM pays a dividend twice as big as Sherwin-Williams' (1.8%). And with its price-to-earnings ratio only 23, RPM stock costs half as much.

I'm personally not thrilled with these numbers either (paying 23x earnings for 10% growth doesn't seem much of a bargain). But Citi is right: As expensive as RPM stock looks, at least it's cheaper than Sherwin-Williams.

Should you invest $1,000 in Sherwin-Williams right now?

Before you buy stock in Sherwin-Williams, consider this:

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Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $655,255!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $888,780!*

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*Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends RPM International and Sherwin-Williams. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why ConocoPhillips Stock Just Popped

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) stock is on the rise Friday morning, up 2.5% through 10:55 a.m. ET, on worrisome news from the Middle East.

On Thursday evening, Israeli warplanes struck multiple targets in Iran, resulting in drone strikes from Iran on Israel. Investors are nervous that conflict in the Middle East will threaten the supply of oil from Mideast suppliers, raising oil prices.

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Oil rig at dawn.

Image source: Getty Images.

What this means for oil prices

So far, investors seem to be right about that. According to the latest data from OilPrice.com, WTI crude oil shot up nearly $5 today, the biggest one-day gain since 2022, to $72.70 per barrel. International benchmark Brent Crude is up a similar amount, selling for just under $74 a barrel.

While this might be a blip, it's a big one. And my hunch is it's not a temporary adjustment, as the conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to get worse before it gets better, and could even draw in neighboring countries, affecting oil supplies from the broader region.

Is ConocoPhillips stock a buy?

From an investors' perspective, of course, these kinds of worries do encourage a focus on oil stocks, which may benefit as oil prices rise, and oil profits increase. In the case of Conoco, we're looking at a global giant that earned $9.2 billion in profit last year even before prices began rising, and that trades for only about 12.6 times trailing earnings today

With a 3.3% dividend yield, the stock should perform well so long as Conoco can maintain a 10% or better earnings growth rate. Mideast tensions should help make that more likely, and lift the stock past analyst forecasts for 7% long-term earnings growth.

All things considered, I think Conoco stock looks like a reasonable way to play the situation.

Should you invest $1,000 in ConocoPhillips right now?

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Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $655,255!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $888,780!*

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*Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Received before yesterday

Why Space Stock Redwire Soared Today

Redwire Corporation (NYSE: RDW) stock jumped a lucky 7.7% Monday morning after the company gave an update on its plan to acquire privately held Edge Autonomy, "a leader in providing innovative autonomous systems, advanced optics, and resilient energy solutions" (i.e., drones).

As you may recall, Redwire announced in January that it will buy the maker of Penguin unmanned aerial vehicles for $925 million, payable in $150 million cash plus $775 million in Redwire stock.

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Soldier operating quadcopter drone against a sunset.

Image source: Getty Images.

The more things change, the more they stay the same

That's still the basic plan, but this morning Redwire announced that the purchase will actually be made with $160 million in cash (so $10 million more) and $765 million in shares of Redwire common stock (so $10 million less). Furthermore, $100 million of the "cash" portion of the price will be "paid" in the form of an unsecured promissory note from a Redwire subsidiary.

Is this good news or bad news for Redwire?

Why would Redwire make this change, and is it good news or bad news for the stock?

Well, consider that Redwire stock cost less than $15 before the Edge acquisition was announced but is worth nearly $20 today. Consider too that the Redwire stock being paid to Edge is still valued back near its January price -- $15.07 per share. So Edge is already making out like a bandit, receiving shares worth almost $20 when it expected to get shares worth less than $15. Owners of the private company have already made a tidy profit.

It makes sense that Redwire now wants to pay less in shares and more in cash. The adjustment is modestly good news for the stock -- probably not worth a 7% share price bump, but still good news.

Should you invest $1,000 in Redwire right now?

Before you buy stock in Redwire, consider this:

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*Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why Planet Labs Stock Shot to the Moon Today

Planet Labs (NYSE: PL), a small space stock that owns one of the world's biggest constellations of Earth observation satellites, exploded higher after beating on earnings last night.

Heading into the fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, analysts expected Planet to report a $0.03-per-share adjusted loss on sales of $62.3 million. Instead, it reported $66.3 million in sales and break-even profits. Investors applauded, sending the stock up 52.1% through 1:50 p.m. ET.

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Lots of satellites orbiting Earth.

Image source: Getty Images.

Planet Labs' Q1 earnings

The $66.3 million set a new quarterly sales record for Planet Labs, and was up 10% year over year, with 97% of the revenue recurring. Gross profit margins expanded from 52% a year ago to 55% this time around.

The company still lost money when earnings are calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) -- $0.04 per share -- but Planet's non-GAAP result was a wash at $0.00 earned. Best of all, Planet Labs for the first time ever reported positive free cash flow for a quarter: $8 million.

Is Planet Labs stock a buy?

Now the question is: Can Planet Labs keep up the good work?

CFO Ashley Johnson thinks so, advising that "We continue to have good visibility to meaningful revenue growth rate acceleration." Fiscal Q2 sales are projected to be about $66 million, roughly flat sequentially, but up about 8% year over year. Earnings are likely to be negative, though, and free cash flow as well.

For the full fiscal year, Planet sees sales growing between 9% and 15%, to $265 million or even $280 million. I suspect earnings and free cash flow will still end up negative for the year, but Planet's getting closer to sustainable free cash flow -- and more and more deserving of a buy rating.

Should you invest $1,000 in Planet Labs Pbc right now?

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Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $668,538!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $869,841!*

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*Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why MongoDB Stock Popped Today

MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB) stock, provider of cloud-based database services, soared 15.8% through 11:15 a.m. ET Thursday after announcing tremendous earnings last night.

Heading into its fiscal Q1 2026 report, analysts forecast MongoDB would earn $0.66 per share on sales of $527.5 million. Instead, MongoDB reported sales of $549 million -- and EPS $1 on the nose.

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Green arrow going up.

Image source: Getty Images.

MongoDB's Q1 earnings

Not all the news was good. Sales surged 22% year over year at MongoDB, but the gross profit margin the company earned on those sales contracted, from 73% to just 71%. Moreover, the $1 "profit" MongoDB reported was only an adjusted, non-GAAP number. Actual earnings as calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) remained negative, with MongoDB reporting a $0.46 GAAP loss for the quarter.

Still, that was less than half last year's Q1 GAAP loss of $1.10 per share. Even better, MongoDB grew its free cash flow 74% year over year, to $105.9 million in the quarter.

Is MongoDB stock a buy?

Thus, while still GAAP-unprofitable (MongoDB has never reported a GAAP profit) and lacking a P/E ratio, MongoDB has now generated nearly $166 million in free cash flow over the last 12 reported months, a new record. Granted, this still gives MongoDB stock a very expensive-looking price-to-free cash flow ratio of 114 -- but at least it's a positive number.

And MongoDB is still growing. Management says sales will probably exceed analyst estimates at $548 million to $553 million next quarter, and more than $2.25 billion for the year. Non-GAAP earnings forecasts also came in ahead of expectations.

Now, if only someone could convince MongoDB to give guidance in the form of free cash flow, maybe we could figure out if this stock is a buy!

Should you invest $1,000 in MongoDB right now?

Before you buy stock in MongoDB, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and MongoDB wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $668,538!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $869,841!*

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See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends MongoDB. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why Micron Stock Popped Today

The stock of semiconductor memory chipmaker -- including for artificial intelligence (AI) server farms -- Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) is hopping Thursday morning, up a solid 4.4% through 10:55 a.m. ET.

And you can thank the friendly analysts at Mizuho for that.

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Green arrow going up.

Image source: Getty Images.

What Mizuho says about Micron

Mizuho raised its price target on Micron stock yesterday after close of trading, reports The Fly, to $130 per share, with an outperform rating. Looking ahead to Micron's fiscal Q2 2025 earnings report, which is expected June 25, Mizuho expects to see strong guidance based on a couple of big numbers.

Global sales of high bandwidth memory (HBM) are expected to grow 55% industrywide through 2027, while Micron's sales of HBM are expected to grow 90% annually.

That means not only is Micron growing much faster than other memory makers, but it's also probably stealing a lot of market share from its rivals -- both things being great news for Micron stock, if they're correct. The analyst expects this to translate into both sales growth and "margin upside."

Is Micron stock a buy?

One hopes that Mizuho's right about that, because as things stand right now, Micron stock doesn't look terribly attractive. Earnings for the past 12 months are only $4.7 billion, giving the stock about a 25x P/E ratio -- not obscenely expensive, but certainly not "cheap."

Free cash flow at the memory maker is even worse, just $606 million for the past year, resulting in a price-to-free cash flow ratio of... 190! (Which does seem kind of obscene.) Still, Micron's a cyclical stock in the famously cyclical semiconductor industry, where "cheap" stocks can become "expensive," and vice versa, in the blink of an eye.

The best time to buy such stocks can be when their valuations look the worst -- like today.

Should you invest $1,000 in Micron Technology right now?

Before you buy stock in Micron Technology, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Micron Technology wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $668,538!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $869,841!*

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See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why ChargePoint Stock Plunged Today

Shares of electric vehicle charging company ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE: CHPT) short-circuited Thursday morning, plunging 19.8% through 10:05 a.m. ET after the company reported twice as big a loss as anticipated for its fiscal 2026 first quarter.

Heading into the company's earnings report, analysts had been forecasting that ChargePoint would report losses of $0.06 per share on more than $100 million in sales in the period, which ended April 30. In fact, ChargePoint's losses were $0.12 per share, and sales fell by 8.8% year over year to $97.6 million.

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1 dotted red arrow glowing and going down.

Image source: Getty Images.

ChargePoint's big Q1 loss

The news wasn't all bad. ChargePoint did improve its gross profit margin from 22% a year ago to 29%. Operating costs also declined, which improved operating margins.

On the bottom line, quarterly losses were the aforementioned $0.12 per share -- not great, but at least better than the $0.17 per share that ChargePoint lost a year ago. However, part of the improvement was due to ChargePoint issuing a lot of new shares, spreading its losses among 8.4% more shares outstanding. Its GAAP net loss was $57.1 million, down 20% from $71.8 million a year prior.

Is ChargePoint stock a sell?

Still and all, investors seem unhappy with the report, and at least part of the reason for that is management's guidance. ChargePoint predicts its fiscal Q2 2026 sales will land in the $90 million to $100 million range. About three-quarters of that range is less than it earned in fiscal Q1, suggesting the strong possibility that revenue will shrink sequentially. That contrasts poorly with the predictions of Wall Street analysts, whose consensus view was that ChargePoint's top line would grow respectably to more than $108 million in fiscal Q2.

It almost goes without saying that ChargePoint didn't guide investors to expect any profits in its fiscal Q2. The best the company was willing to offer on that point was that it "remains committed to its plans of achieving positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA during a quarter in fiscal year 2026." So, it's targeting sort of a profit in at least one quarter, but it wouldn't say which one.

That vague hope hardly seems a good reason to buy ChargePoint stock.

Should you invest $1,000 in ChargePoint right now?

Before you buy stock in ChargePoint, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and ChargePoint wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $668,538!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $869,841!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 789% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

How Much Does It Cost to Build a Space Station? Would You Believe Less Than $4 Billion?

It took 13 years, 15 nations, and roughly $100 billion to build the International Space Station (ISS). But one company thinks it can build a replacement for as little as $3 billion -- or less.

That company's name is Voyager Technologies ... and it's about to list an initial public offering (IPO).

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Astronaut looking at Earth out of a huge window on a space station.

Image source: Getty Images.

Details, details

I first wrote about the impending Voyager Technologies IPO back in February, but to be honest, there wasn't a whole lot to say about it then. Voyager made its first filing for initial public offering under a guarantee of confidentiality, you see. As a result, most of what we knew about Voyager's IPO at the time came directly from Voyager itself, via information published on its own website.

That just changed.

Last week, Voyager finally filed its IPO prospectus (termed an S-1) publicly. And while a lot of important data blocks in the document remain blank and yet to be filled in, Voyager did add a lot of background information on its business.

Voyager is best known today as one of four teams competing for NASA contracts to kick-start Voyager's efforts to create a replacement -- privately owned -- space station. But Voyager actually describes itself as an "innovation-driven defense technology and space solutions company," suggesting much more widely ranging interests, above and beyond just building a space station replacement. For this reason, structurally, the company has organized itself in three business divisions: Defense & National Security, Space Solutions, and Starlab Space Stations.

Details on Starlab in particular

The Starlab division will participate in an international joint venture to operate the proposed Starlab space station. "Equity" partners in this venture include Palantir Technologies, Airbus, Japan's Mitsubishi, and Canada's MDA Space. Voyager owns 67% of the JV, Airbus 30.5%, while Palantir, Mitsubishi, and MDA own less than 1% each. Hilton and Northrop Grumman are non-equity "strategic" partners performing various roles in the venture, and SpaceX is under contract to launch the space station aboard its Starship launch vehicle in 2029.

Voyager notes that its space station concept features a "proven metallic habitat design" that can "be deployed and achieve initial operational capability in a single launch on SpaceX's Starship." This single module, says Voyager, will replace "approximately 45% of the pressurized volume of the U.S. Segment (non-Russian) of the ISS." Two launches should therefore essentially replace the entire working volume of the U.S. portion of the space station.

And here's the best part: Whereas ISS cost $100 billion to build, Voyager said it expects to build and launch its Starlab for "approximately $2.8 billion to $3.3 billion."

How to value the Voyager IPO

That's a lot cheaper than the original recipe ISS cost. It's also a lot less cash than Voyager has on hand (just $175.5 million at last report), which explains why Voyager must IPO to raise the cash it needs to build Starlab.

The bigger question for investors is: Should you help them out with that, by handing over your cash to Voyager at the IPO? And that's a question of valuation.

Voyager generated $136.1 million in revenue in 2023, then grew its revenue 6% to $144.2 million in 2024. Much of this money has come from NASA, the company's largest customer, accounting for 25.6% of 2024 revenue.

NASA has awarded the company $217.5 million toward developing an ISS replacement. Of this, $147.2 million has already been paid out between 2022 and 2023. Including NASA, the company says it has won "approximately $800 million" in contracts and Space Act Agreements from the U.S. government, which gives you an idea of future revenue prospects. (Out of these contracts, $93.1 million is considered backlog -- work for which Voyager has "a written contract or purchase order" either in-hand or awaiting execution).

As for costs, well, those are large, significantly larger than revenue at present, resulting in a $65.6 million loss in 2024. Net losses per (still privately traded) share are about $9.88, up 88% year over year. And investors should expect losses to grow as the company spends to get Starlab completed and ready for launch. Revenue probably won't begin offsetting rising costs until 2029, when the space station launches and begins operations.

Should you buy the Voyager Technologies IPO?

Long story short, the prospectus just filed by Voyager paints the picture of a speculative investment, one with substantial revenue, but perhaps not enough to justify its projected $2 billion to $3 billion valuation at IPO.

Even at the low end of this valuation, $147 million in trailing-12-month sales implies a 13.6 price-to-sales ratio on the stock. As for P/E, well, Voyager has no earnings on which to hang a price-to-earnings valuation, and probably won't have any earnings for another four to five years.

Does all this mean you shouldn't invest in the Voyager IPO? Not necessarily. But it does mean you should make any "investment" by being fully conscious that what you're really doing is speculating on the venture not going bust. And you should probably examine your risk tolerance before doing that.

Where to invest $1,000 right now

When our analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor’s total average return is 979%* — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 171% for the S&P 500.

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why Okta Stock Plunged on Wednesday

Cybersecurity specialist Okta (NASDAQ: OKTA) took a tumble Wednesday, falling 14.6% through noon ET. The crazy thing is, Okta's news looked pretty good.

Wall Street anticipated Okta would report fiscal Q1 2026 profits of $0.77 per share, adjusted for one-time items, on sales of $680.1 million. In fact, Okta said it earned $0.86 per share on sales of $688 million.

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Dotted red arrow glowing and going down.

Image source: Getty Images.

Okta's Q1 earnings

What's not to like about that? Well, there are a few caveats and quibbles. Revenue grew a respectable 12%, which is good. However, while Okta beat on "adjusted" earnings, its actual earnings, as calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), were a lot less than the adjusted figure -- just $0.35 per share.

Still, that number was a lot better than last year's Q1, when Okta lost $0.24 per share.

What's more, Okta reported positive free cash flow of $238 million for the quarter, roughly four times its reported "profit," and up 11% year over year, in line with revenue growth.

Is Okta stock a sell?

Turning to guidance, Okta told investors its sales will grow about 10% in Q2, and 9% to 10% for fiscal 2026 as a whole. The company didn't give GAAP earnings numbers, couching guidance in "adjusted" terms again. Still, the company's predictions of an $0.83 or $0.84 profit in Q2, and anywhere from $3.23 to $3.28 per share for the year, were all comfortably ahead of analyst estimates.

So why are investors selling Okta stock today?

I can only imagine it's the valuation that's spooking them. Priced at 24.5 times trailing free cash flow, Okta stock looks a bit rich for low-teens sales and FCF growth. And growth is slowing, too. It's not a great look for a supposed growth stock.

Should you invest $1,000 in Okta right now?

Before you buy stock in Okta, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Okta wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $653,389!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $830,492!*

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Okta. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why Oklo and Centrus Energy Stocks Popped, but AES Dropped

Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) stock, a start-up nuclear power company developing mini-nuclear reactors, surged more than 10% yesterday after announcing a partnership with Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power. Alongside Centrus Energy (NYSEMKT: LEU), the company has been riding an even bigger wave of investor enthusiasm that began last week, when President Trump on Friday signed a series of executive orders to promote development of the nuclear power industry in America.

Both stocks are up again modestly today, with Oklo stock rising 1.7% through 10:30 a.m. ET, and Centrus Energy stock up about twice that -- a 3.4% gain.

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In contrast, electric utility AES (NYSE: AES), which does not operate nuclear power plants, seems to be missing out entirely on the nuclear stocks boom. AES stock is down 3.7% today, and down an even more dramatic 52% over the past 52 weeks.

People hold hands in a field of flowers outside a nuclear power station.

Image source: Getty Images.

Oklo and Centrus in the news

Yesterday, Oklo said it will collaborate with its Korean partner to advance the technology of its new Aurora powerhouse, as well as Korea Hydro's own "innovative domestic advanced nuclear technology, the i-SMR." The announcement seems to have caught the attention of investment bank William Blair, which initiated coverage of Oklo stock today with an "outperform" rating.

Oklo plans to build a 75-megawatt Aurora powerhouse at the Idaho National Laboratory site, and says it has another 14 gigawatts of nuclear power plants lined up after that, in its "growing order pipeline." Blair says the company has laid out "a fast-tracked regulatory pathway called a custom combined construction and operating license approval (COLA)" that "will permit Oklo to capture upside from rising electricity prices, especially from premium clean energy PPAs," as StreetInsider.com reports today.

The analyst also likes Oklo's vertically integrated business model, in which the company intends to not only design but also build, own, and operate its own nuclear power plants.

Blair also likes Centrus Energy, but for different reasons. In today's note, the banker pointed out that Centrus currently holds one of only two Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licenses that have been issued for low-enriched uranium (LEU). Centrus holds the only NRC license issued for enriching uranium to high levels, turning it into what is called "high-assay low-enriched uranium," or "HALEU."

This places Centrus in a prime position to benefit from U.S. government policy to decrease reliance on Russia to sell us enriched uranium for use in U.S. nuclear power plants. And Blair places a value of about $15 billion on this market -- which Centrus apparently owns 50% to 100% of!

Which nuclear power stock should you buy?

Blair values Oklo stock at $70 per share, versus the $55 and change that the stock costs today. The prospect of a 27% profit may tempt investors, but beware: Oklo remains in start-up mode, has no revenue coming in, and isn't expected to begin generating revenue before 2027. Analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence don't expect to see profitability before 2029.

And Centrus?

Blair has a $185 fair valuation on Centrus stock, implying that one could go up as much as 45%. What's more, Centrus is already more of a going concern, with $471 million in revenue collected over the last 12 months, and a very respectable $106 million profit.

At $2.2 billion in market capitalization currently, the stock only costs about 20 times earnings. With a big Trump tailwind at its back, Centrus stock could be a winner.

And what about AES?

What about AES stock, today's big loser?

AES has been in a downtrend since reporting a sizable earnings miss early in the month. (AES was supposed to earn $0.34 per share in Q1, but reported only a $0.27 adjusted profit). The Fly points out that the company's guidance for the rest of this year looked weak as well. And just yesterday, Argus Research analyst John Eade downgraded AES stock to "hold," warning of a "strained" balance sheet and growth prospects that don't get out of the mid-single digits this year.

That may not sound exciting to momentum traders swept up in the nuclear wave this week. But AES stock has a lot to recommend itself to value and dividend investors. Its $7.2 billion market cap and $1.3 billion in trailing earnings mean the stock costs barely 5.5 times trailing earnings, and AES pays a generous dividend yield of nearly 7%.

Does AES also carry a lot of debt? It does -- nearly $30 billion, net of cash on hand. But AES is making good use of its debt to produce profits and divvy out dividends to its shareholders. It may not be as sexy as a nuclear stock, but for long-term, value-focused investors, AES stock may end up as the most rewarding investment of the three.

Should you invest $1,000 in The AES Corporation right now?

Before you buy stock in The AES Corporation, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and The AES Corporation wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $653,389!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $830,492!*

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why Urban Outfitters Stock Zoomed Higher Thursday

Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) stock exploded 21.4% higher through 11 a.m. ET Thursday after demolishing Q1 earnings forecasts last night.

Heading into the report, Wall Street analysts forecast Urban Outfitters would earn only $0.83 on less than $1.3 billion in Q1 sales. In fact, the retailer earned $1.16 per share on sales of more than $1.3 billion.

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Arrow up with dice percentage sign.

Image source: Getty Images.

Urban Outfitters Q1 earnings

Sales surged nearly 11% year over year for Urban Outfitters, with "comparable retail segment net sales" (i.e., same-store sales) increasing 4.8%. SSS growth was strongest at the company's Anthropologie brand, up 6.9%, with SSS gains of 3.1% at Free People and 2.1% at Urban Outfitters per se.

CEO Richard Hayne exulted over the "record first-quarter revenues and profits," highlighting "positive sales growth and improved profitability across all brands and segments." Earnings of $1.16 -- a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) number, by the way -- nearly doubled in comparison to last year's Q1.

Is Urban Outfitters stock a buy?

Management didn't give guidance on what to expect in Q2, but Hayne did forecast "continued success." Wall Street seems on board with the assessment as well, forecasting 15% earnings growth this year to $4.91 per share.

Assuming Urban Outfitters hits that number, the stock would be selling for 15 times current-year earnings, right in line with a 15% growth estimate. Even with no dividend to boost the stock's attractiveness, the worst I could say about Urban Outfitters today is that the stock looks fairly priced, and largely unaffected by President Trump's tariffs war.

Call me an eternal optimist, but Urban Outfitters stock looks like a buy to me.

Should you invest $1,000 in Urban Outfitters right now?

Before you buy stock in Urban Outfitters, consider this:

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Why Snowflake Stock Is Red Hot on Thursday

Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) stock floated 8.9% higher through 10:25 a.m. ET Thursday after the company posted top- and bottom-line "beats" in its first-quarter earnings report last night.

Heading into the report, Wall Street analysts forecast Snowflake to earn $0.21 per share on $1.01 billion in revenue. In fact, Snowflake earned $0.26 per share on sales of $1.04 billion.

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A child looks through a paper snowflake.

Image source: Getty Images.

Snowflake's Q1 earnings

The provider of artificial intelligence (AI) software reported 26% revenue growth in Q1, and a 124% "net revenue retention rate" -- meaning effectively all existing Snowflake customers renewed their subscriptions, and the company added even more new customers. Remaining performance obligations, or backlog, grew 34%, foreshadowing additional sales growth to come.

That's the good news. The bad news is that despite the $0.26 profit analysts are cheering about, Snowflake's earnings as calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) were negative -- a $1.29-per-share loss that was actually worse than last year.

But the other good news is that free cash flow was positive. The company reported $183.4 million in positive cash profits, calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures.

Is Snowflake stock a buy?

Investors seem happy with that number, but I consider it a yellow flag.

Why? Well basically, because last year in Q1, Snowflake generated $339 million in free cash flow. So this week's number actually represents a 46% decline in FCF. So while sales are surging, and Snowflake CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy may be doing a good job of convincing customers that "every enterprise [can] achieve its full potential through data and AI," Snowflake itself isn't making nearly as much money on AI now as it did a year ago.

With Snowflake stock costing nearly 79 times FCF today, it may be time to sell.

Should you invest $1,000 in Snowflake right now?

Before you buy stock in Snowflake, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Snowflake wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $644,254!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $807,814!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 962% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 169% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

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Why Cleveland-Cliffs Stock Plunged After Earnings

Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) stock reported a loss last night that was much worse than anticipated, sending its stock tumbling in early trading Thursday, down 16.2% through 10:35 a.m. ET.

Analysts expected the steelmaker to lose $0.83 per share, but Cleveland-Cliffs actually lost $0.92. Operating revenue was $4.5 billion, not the $4.6 billion Wall Street wanted.

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Steelworker pouring molten steel.

Image source: Getty Images.

Cleveland-Cliffs Q1 earnings

Not all the news was bad. Consolidated revenue was $4.6 billion, up sequentially. Still, even this number fell 11.5% year over year.

When calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), not adjusted for one-time items, the quarterly loss was actually $1 per share, not $0.92. This was six times worse than last year's Q1 earnings.

Is Cleveland-Cliffs stock a buy?

These probably aren't the results investors were looking for from a steelmaker ostensibly benefiting from President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel imports. Still, those tariffs hadn't fully kicked in by the time Q1 had ended, and things could improve.

Cleveland-Cliffs is also cutting costs to become more competitive, idling six plants "to optimize its footprint, reposition away from loss-making operations, and release excess working capital" -- and save $300 million a year. Management forecasts steel production costs will fall by $50 per ton this year, better than its earlier $40 prediction. Capital spending is also going down, to $625 million this year.

Management didn't give hard numbers for earnings guidance, however, and it's currently burning more than $1 billion a year and reporting even bigger GAAP losses. Tariff relief might help with that. This is a cyclical business, after all, where good times can quickly follow bad.

Still, it's hard to recommend buying into an unprofitable steelmaker. For the time being, I'm not going to do that.

Should you invest $1,000 in Cleveland-Cliffs right now?

Before you buy stock in Cleveland-Cliffs, consider this:

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Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $623,103!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $717,471!*

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Why Joby Aviation Stock Popped After Earnings

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) stock jumped 6.8% through 10:10 a.m. ET this morning after "beating" earnings last night. Analysts forecast Joby would lose $0.19 per share in its first quarter of 2025, but the electric air taxi company reported a loss of only $0.11 per share.

Joby has no revenue, so analysts didn't bother making a revenue forecast -- and Joby reported no revenue.

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A person with a suitcase looks up at a hovering air taxi.

Image source: Getty Images.

Joby Aviation Q1 earnings

Being a pre-revenue company, Joby's "earnings" press release focused on business developments instead. The company noted it has picked a new CFO, Rodrigo Brumana, a veteran of HP, Amazon, eBay "and, most recently, Poshmark."

The company said it has made "progress on the certification of our aircraft," and said it has begun "routine transition flights with a pilot onboard the aircraft, marking a critical step toward starting FAA flight testing."

Perhaps most importantly, Joby said it ended Q1 2025 with $813 million in the bank, and another $500 million investment from Toyota Motor on the way.

Is Joby stock a buy?

That's important because, with no revenue and no cashflow coming in from its business, Joby currently has to draw on its cash reserves to keep itself in business as it moves toward having a product to sell. Last year, Joby burned through $487 million in negative free cash flow, a number that's starting to inch higher in 2025.

The good news is that, with Toyota's backing, the company still has enough money to keep it afloat for nearly three more years before it runs out of cash. The bad news is that analysts forecast Joby won't turn profitable before 2030 -- five years away.

Joby stock remains speculative. If you decide to buy into it, make sure to buy small.

Should you invest $1,000 in Joby Aviation right now?

Before you buy stock in Joby Aviation, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Joby Aviation wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $623,103!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $717,471!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 909% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 162% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

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*Stock Advisor returns as of May 5, 2025

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, HP, and eBay. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Why Frontline Stock Popped, but Exxon and ConocoPhillips Dropped

Uh-oh. OPEC is up to something, and it's probably not good for oil stocks -- or more precisely, not good for all oil stocks.

Over the weekend, the OPEC+ group of oil producing nations, plus a few that aren't officially a part of the cartel, such as Russia, announced plans to "surge" production of oil in June, as CNBC reports.

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Stocks of oil-producing companies including ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) are reacting poorly to the news, down 2.5% and 3.6%, respectively, as of 10:20 a.m. ET. In contrast, Frontline (NYSE: FRO) stock, which operates tankers that carry oil products from place to place, is doing very well indeed this morning -- up 3.9%.

So what's up with that?

Good news for Frontline is bad news for Exxon and Conoco

When you think about it, the price moves of these three stocks are actually entirely logical. Over the past year, international benchmark Brent crude prices are down a staggering 28%, as are the prices of WTI crude (the U.S. benchmark).

Worries over President Donald Trump's tariff policy, and its effect on global trade and global economic growth, are certainly contributing to the problem; there has been a notable drop-off in oil prices since Inauguration Day back in January, and especially since early April, when the president began announcing his "reciprocal tariffs" initiative. And now, despite oil prices weakening already, OPEC+ is planning to increase production? For the second time in two months? (OPEC already boosted production in May, by the same 441,000 barrels-per-day amount it just announced for June.)

Any first-year economics student can tell you what happens next: When you increase supply (twice!), and demand holds constant, prices fall. What's more, when you increase supply, and demand falls (because, for example, someone's slowing down the global economy by raising tariff barriers to trade), prices fall even more.

That's almost certainly what's going to happen here, and if prices fall, and costs don't fall along with them, this means profits will decline at both ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips.

An oil tanker surging through the sea.

Image source: Getty Images.

And what about Frontline stock?

Conversely, this bad news for Exxon and Conoco is actually good news for Frontline. And why? Because, as that same economics student can tell you, when prices of a good or service fall, the demand for that good or service tends to increase. Basically, oil is going on sale right now, and so the likely result is that people will buy more of it.

Of course, unless those people live in Saudi Arabia, or another OPEC+ country, in order to buy the cheap oil they're going to have to first hire a tanker to ship it from where it's produced to where they live. Because shipping oil from Point A to Point B is Frontline's raison d'etre, this means more business for Frontline, more demand for Frontline's services, and more profit for Frontline stock.

Which oil stock should you buy right now?

Investors are therefore behaving logically today, selling oil producers before their profits sink, but buying oil transport companies like Frontline before their profits boom. Of course, it doesn't hurt that at just 7.7 times trailing earnings, Frontline already looks like a much cheaper stock than Exxon or Conoco. Nor does it hurt that Frontline pays its shareholders a very generous 4.7% dividend yield.

That said, investors who think long-term perhaps shouldn't rule out the idea of buying into Exxon and Conoco stocks on today's sell-off. For one thing, the oil majors are no dividend slouches themselves. Conoco pays a 3.4% dividend yield, and Exxon pays 3.7% -- both very respectable numbers.

Both stocks look reasonably priced, as well, with Conoco costing only 11.7 times trailing profits, and Exxon not that much more expensive at 14.1 times earnings. Plus, don't forget the other rule of economics: Among cyclical stocks like these, cheap prices grow demand, and when demand grows, prices tend to grow as well. Eventually, this situation will right itself, and Exxon and Conoco profits will bounce right back. The best time to buy their stocks is before that happens.

Should you invest $1,000 in Frontline Plc right now?

Before you buy stock in Frontline Plc, consider this:

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Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $623,685!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $701,781!*

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Why Airbus Stock Popped Today

Airbus (OTC: EADSY) is getting a lift from two stock analyst names this morning, as first Barclays lowered its price target on the stock to 185 euros (but maintains an "overweight" rating on the stock, according to StreetInsider.com), while Paris shop Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the European aerospace giant to "buy" with a 170-euro price target.

Airbus shares are responding with a move 2.8% higher through 10:45 a.m. ET.

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What analysts say about Airbus

Airbus stock is down about 8% over the past month as investors punish the stock for "higher macroeconomic risk" on recession concerns, as The Fly points out today. The stock has already bounced off its lows, however, gaining about 10% over the past three weeks. Kepler, however, believes there are even more gains to be found here and agrees with Barclays that Airbus stock is a buy.

So is Airbus stock a buy?

Are these analysts right about Airbus? Well, it's worth pointing out that rival Boeing (NYSE: BA) just got an upgrade to "outperform" this morning from Bernstein SocGen (part of AllianceBernstein), which sees Boeing's fortunes reviving as it works through problems with its 737 MAX airplane program and begins ramping production up to perhaps 38 planes per month by July, and 42 by the end of this year.

And not meaning to knock Boeing, but when you compare the two stocks side by side, Airbus really does look like the stronger operation right now. Airbus earned $4.4 billion in profit last year, versus Boeing's $11.5 billion loss. Airbus is forecast to grow its earnings to $5.8 billion this year, whereas Boeing will be lucky to earn anything at all. And while Boeing should be on firmer footing by 2026, when it's expected to earn $4 billion, Airbus profits in 2026 could be nearly twice as big -- $7.3 billion!

Listen, at 26 times earnings, even I won't try to make the case that Airbus stock is a bargain. But relative to Boeing, it's clearly the stronger performer. So if Boeing deserves an upgrade, then... why not Airbus?

Should you invest $1,000 in Airbus SE right now?

Before you buy stock in Airbus SE, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Airbus SE wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $594,046!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $680,390!*

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Why Viking Therapeutics Stock Popped Today

Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX) stock inched 2.3% higher through 10:20 a.m. ET Monday, and for a most curious reason.

Truist Securities analyst Joon Lee just lowered his price target on the unprofitable biotech stock. Now why would investors think this is good news for Viking?

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Truist's backhanded compliment for Viking Therapeutics

The theory goes like this: Lee cut his price target on Viking from $95 to $75 a share, warning the company faces "intensifying competition in the obesity space" (as The Fly reports today). Yet even so, Lee says that 2025 will be a "year of execution" for Viking as it begins phase 3 clinical trials on its new GLP-1 obesity drug, VK2735.

Good results from this trial could make Viking the third major investment play on weight loss, joining Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly at the top of this market.

That's the competition Lee is talking about: Novo and Lilly. But even if Viking doesn't win the market entirely, even capturing just a sliver of the multibillion-dollar global market for GLP-1 drugs could be "material" to Viking's results.

Is Viking Therapeutics stock a buy?

Lee is correct. In fact, with no revenues, much less profit, to its credit, getting literally any drug to market would be a material success for Viking, much less gaining a toehold in the red-hot market for GLP-1 weight loss drugs.

It won't happen quickly; analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast less than $2 million in revenue for Viking this year. However, they expect that number to grow rapidly, to $38 million by 2027, for example -- and to $729 million by 2029, the first year analysts expect to see Viking earn a profit.

Still, a lot has to go right for Viking between now and then, and things could fall apart in a hurry if the phase 3 trials don't pan out. For now, I have to consider Viking still a speculative stock. If you feel you must buy it, make sure to "buy small" and stay diversified.

Should you invest $1,000 in Viking Therapeutics right now?

Before you buy stock in Viking Therapeutics, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Viking Therapeutics wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $594,046!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $680,390!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 872% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 160% for the S&P 500. Don’t miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Truist Financial. The Motley Fool recommends Novo Nordisk and Viking Therapeutics. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

No Good Deed Goes Unpunished at Northrop Grumman, as Cost Improvements Cut Profits in Half

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) stock is in a funk. With the company reporting earnings on Tuesday, the stock promptly tanked 12.6%. Rebounding briefly on Wednesday, Northrop then proceeded to resume sliding a day later before bouncing again on Friday.

Northrop Grumman Q1 earnings

It's not hard to guess why. Year over year, Northrop Grumman suffered a significant slide in sales as two of its business segments -- its two biggest business segments, aeronautics and space -- saw sales weaken by 8% and 18%, respectively, in the first quarter. Modest gains in the company's other two, smaller businesses of defense and mission systems weren't enough to keep sales stable.

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Total sales across the company fell 7%.

Operating profit at the defense company declined as well. Indeed, it was cut roughly in half, down 46% at $573 million for the quarter. Operating profit margins shrank 450 basis points to just 6.1%. Earnings per share tumbled 47% to just $3.32 per share, and free cash flow ran negative to the tune of $1.8 billion.

What went wrong at Northrop

So it was pretty much miserable news all around. Most pundits focused on a single aspect of the news, the 18% fall-off in sales at the company's space business. Northrop blamed the decline on the "wind-down of work on the restricted space and Next Generation Interceptor (NGI) programs, which reduced sales by $228 million, as well as decreases for Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) missions, Space Development Agency (SDA) satellite programs and other restricted space programs."

That's a pretty big list of programs responsible for the decline, though. It might have taken less time for Northrop to list space programs that were not responsible!

On the plus side, at least profit margins on the sales Northrop did make in space inched higher, rising 50 basis points to 11%. Also, it's worth pointing out that despite all its troubles, Northrop still managed to earn $283 million in operating profit from its space work. That's not as much as it earned a year ago, but it's still a decent number.

To my mind, therefore, Northrop's bigger issue in Q1 wasn't its space business at all, but rather its aeronautics division -- the business segment responsible for building Northrop Grumman's new B-21 stealth bomber.

B-21 stealth bomber.

Image source: Northrop Grumman.

B-21: No bingo, no bueno!

Northrop has been doing tremendous work on the B-21 project, which has been praised by defense market analysts and the U.S. Air Force alike for its "smooth progress" and for "coming in under budget" -- a rarity in defense contracting. Indeed, by some estimates the B-21's looking likely to cost taxpayers as much as 28% less than it was originally forecast to cost.

That's great news for taxpayers. It's unfortunately turning out to be less-great news for Northrop Grumman shareholders, however, at least in the short term. Explaining why its profits got cut roughly in half last quarter, management said, "The loss [for Northrop's aeronautics unit, not for the whole company] largely relates to higher manufacturing costs ... from a process change made by the company to enable an accelerated production ramp, as well as increases in the projected cost and quantity of general procurement materials."

In other words, parts and materials needed to build the B-21 cost more in the quarter, and Northrop didn't pass those on to the government. To the contrary, Northrop made efforts to drive costs down further, and accelerate production -- and ate those costs, too!

Is Northrop Grumman stock a buy?

So basically, Northrop Grumman took one for the team last quarter. Should its stock be punished for that? Not necessarily.

Look, I've made no secret of the fact that I'm not thrilled with the valuation on Northrop Grumman stock. Like many other defense stocks, I think Northrop stock costs too much. Although its valuation has shrunk over the course of this year's slow-burn sell-off, Northrop Grumman stock still sells for nearly 1.7 times trailing sales, more than 18 times earnings, and a staggering 37 times free cash flow, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Northrop's also guiding for low-single-digit sales growth this year (just 2% or 3%), and for less profit than Wall Street wants to see (perhaps as little as $25 per share).

Still, Northrop's space business remains profitable. Its defense business is working hard to ramp production on the B-21, and performing in a manner that's likely to endear it to cost-cutters in the Trump administration. If there's any fairness in the world, that should translate into additional contract wins for Northrop as it proves itself to be the rare defense contractor that knows how to deliver cutting-edge products on time and on (or even under) budget.

If you liked Northrop Grumman stock before this week's sell-off, and weren't scared off by the pricey valuation then, I don't necessarily think you should sell it now that it's nearly 12% cheaper, just because it's making investments to do its job even better and more efficiently in the future.

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It's 2 Steps Forward, 1 Step Back for Lockheed Martin as Weak Guidance Deletes an Earnings Beat

Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) reported earnings on Tuesday, and the crowd went mild.

Seriously. Rarely has an earnings beat the size of the one Lockheed reported this week been met with such a gigantic collective shrug of dismissal as this one. Heading into earnings day, Wall Street analysts confidently predicted Lockheed would report a $6.31-per-share profit on $17.8 billion in sales. Instead, Lockheed reported $18 billion in sales, and a $7.28-per-share profit, a full 15% better than expected. But two days later, Lockheed Martin stock is still up less than a couple of percentage points.

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And I can't help but wonder why.

Lockheed Martin beat big in Q1 earnings (or did it?)

The most logical culprit for investors' underwhelming response to Lockheed's earnings beat is the fact that its sales didn't grow all that much year over year, rising just 4%. True, earnings grew 14% year over year as its gross profit margin improved markedly (to nearly 13%).

That said, the quality of Lockheed Martin's earnings seems suspect. While generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) results certainly improved, the cash flow backing up those GAAP earnings didn't -- at all. Operating cash flow for the quarter was actually down year over year at just $1.4 billion, and free cash flow (FCF) declined significantly, from $1.3 billion in Q1 2024 to just $955 million in Q1 2025. Long story short, for every $1 in GAAP profit Lockheed says it earned, the actual cash profit it produced was only $0.56.

That's not a good number. (But read on -- it might get better.)

Going line by line at Lockheed Martin

Sales grew in three of Lockheed Martin's four main business segments, with space being the exception. Profit margins expanded in all four, with the company's missiles and fire control business throwing up the strongest numbers, $3.4 billion in sales at a 13.8% operating profit margin, up an astounding 340 basis points from a year ago.

The company's flagship aeronautics business (responsible for building F-16 fighter jets and F-35 stealth fighters) put up the weakest results. Sales grew a subpar 3% here, with profit margins showing both the smallest improvement year over year (just 30 basis points), and also the weakest absolute results of any division. Lockheed earned only 10.2% margins in aeronautics last quarter.

With aeronautics still Lockheed's biggest business segment, that doesn't bode well for future profits.

F-16s in flight.

Image source: Getty Images.

Lockheed Martin's full-year guidance

Speaking of the future, guidance may be another reason why investors aren't rewarding Lockheed much for its big earnings beat. According to management, 2025 revenue will range from $73.75 billion to $74.75 billion, so basically $74.25 billion at the midpoint, or very close to the $74.27 billion Wall Street consensus.

Earnings for the year, however, will fall short. Management anticipates profits of $27 to $27.30 per share. That makes the midpoint of the range $27.15, or $0.07 short of the consensus estimate of $27.22.

So Lockheed essentially told investors that, despite beating earnings by nearly $1 a share in Q1, it's not going to raise guidance for the full year by $1 a share. To the contrary, Lockheed is probably going to miss earnings later this year. Sure, the miss will be by only a few pennies. But the fact that Lockheed will miss at all has to concern investors.

Is Lockheed Martin stock a sell?

So that's the bad news. The good news is this: While profits may not be all investors hope for this year, free cash flow is looking likely to rebound strongly from Q1's underwhelming performance. Last year, Lockheed generated $5.3 billion in free cash flow, almost exactly equal to its reported net income of $5.3 billion. This year, Lockheed thinks it can generate anywhere from $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion -- much better than you might expect after Q1 FCF fell short of $1 billion.

Taken at the midpoint of $6.7 billion, that works out to free-cash-flow growth of 26%, a superb growth rate, and much stronger than the company's forecast for sales growth (just 4.5%).

Assuming Lockheed hits its free-cash-flow target, furthermore, the stock would be trading at only about 16.2 times current-year FCF. For a defense stock expected to grow profits at nearly 13% annually over the next five years, and paying a respectable 2.8% dividend yield, that's not expensive at all.

In fact, it just might be cheap enough to make Lockheed Martin stock a buy.

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Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Lockheed Martin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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