Hopeful Futures for UX Research

What path is UX research on?
Imagine if, amidst all the doom and gloom, the future for UX research was looking bright. It’s not just an exercise in wishful thinking: if we want to arrive in a hopeful future of any kind, we must first be able to envisage it.
What’s more, while there’s certainly a lot of churn and anxiety right now, there are reasons to believe the present isn’t all bad, either:
- The best estimate is that UX Research hiring levels are netting out at zero growth to slightly negative growth, but with significant churn. Many companies are laying off UX researchers, but a similar number are hiring. It also seems that hiring in tech is flat or slightly down vs 2020, while other sectors (financial services, medical, green tech) are growing their UX research workforce.
- We should differentiate between UX Research as a role and UX research as an activity. The latter is growing rapidly, through an increase in the number of People Who Do Research (PWDR, also referred to as ‘research democratization’), and based on capability-amplifying developments: Research Ops, remote research tools, and AI.
- UX researchers’ skillset itself (e.g., creative & analytical thinking) has a hopeful future, but requires us to be adaptable: roles, companies, and industries are changing. Leaning into adjacent skillsets (e.g., product management, strategy, knowledge management, developing solutions) can help us to adapt to a world of increasing role generalization, and could also enable us to move up the value chain within organizations.
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been trying to make sense of where UX research is at and where it’s going. As an exercise in speculative design, I lay out some ‘hopeful futures’: ideas about what our field could be morphing into, and what that means for all of our careers.
Why I wrote this
Selfishly, I’m invested in this field: I’ve been a researcher for nearly 30 years, and I want my skills to have a future. It’s also an act of love for the brilliant people I’ve worked with: if you are a UX user/designer/product researcher, I hope this is useful to you, too.
Method
This article is a synthesis of reports (mostly macroeconomic job reports, UX-specific reports, and AI trend analyses), podcasts, articles, social threads, conversations, and feedback on earlier drafts. If you want to dig into the sources, I’ve saved them here.
Health warnings
I should emphasize this is just one person’s opinion, and that statements about the future are prone to uncertainty and error. There are also gaps in the data, e.g., very recent job numbers, geographies outside the USA, and Europe.
I’ve tried to engage with a broad range of sources and sectors, but it’s quite possible that it doesn’t describe your specific location or situation. In particular, if you are recently laid off or job hunting, you might find this kind of structural perspective triggering or just too abstract to be helpful.
Why I’m optimistic
Before diving into the challenges, let’s start with evidence that user research skills and insights remain valuable, even if traditional UX researcher roles are shifting. I don’t want to downplay the challenges, but let’s first remind ourselves that there are reasons to be positive, too.
User insights are more in demand than ever
Uncertainty in the UXR job market shouldn’t be taken as a lack of desire for user insights. In fact, these signals suggest there’s more demand than ever:
- The number of People Who Do Research (PWDR1) is growing, even if the number of specialist UX researchers isn’t. On average, teams have five PWDRs per researcher on average in 2024, compared to 4:1 in 2023 and 2:1 in 2021 and 2022 (source).
- Investment is pouring into UX research tools. Dovetail raised $63M+ with a valuation exceeding $700M in 2022; Dscout raised $70M+ with significant expansion in 2022-2023; Sprig raised $90M+; User Testing raised $150M+ before IPO.
- New frontiers are coming into play, with new problems to solve. AI, of course, but also green tech, digital health, space, autonomous mobility, alongside traditional industries like financial services and medicine that are only now scaling up in UX.
- Most user research team budgets are stable or growing year-on-year (source), albeit research managers are emphasizing productivity-improving measures (tools, ops, and training), not just growing headcount.
Your skills have a hopeful future
Your UX research skills have a bright future: they are among the most in-demand over the next 5 years.

Some of these skills are core to UXR — even if we don’t have a unique claim to them, such as curiosity & lifelong learning, analytical thinking, systems thinking, and empathy & active listening. Others are skills that good UXRs are already using, and that I hope we can lean into more: AI & big data, technological literacy, resilience, flexibility & agility, leadership & social influence, programming. These latter skills are the basis for some of the ‘hopeful future vignettes’ that I suggest at the end of this article.
So even if our current jobs feel exposed, our skills have longevity. What this means: we should be open to the ways our roles are changing as we add new capabilities, responsibilities, and growth opportunities, which may start to make the label ‘UX researcher’ less useful for the work that some of us do.
We have agency
We’re living in a time of change, but we can also own some of the benefits.
- Productivity increases in some UX research tasks can enable us to spend the freed-up time on higher-value activities.
- AI-facilitated access to adjacent skills (e.g., writing code) means it’s easier for us to adopt some of the practices of adjacent roles (e.g., making interactive prototypes).
- As roles change, they offer the opportunity to redefine or expand what we do — if we’re willing to be adaptable.
- The pendulum may be swinging towards ‘UX generalism’ once again, but beyond that, there are jobs both existing (e.g., product management) and emerging (e.g., knowledge management) that we can be orienting towards.
See the ‘What Happens Next?’ section of this article for my speculations about what this might look like.
But we live in uncertain times
Now let’s acknowledge what’s making this period feel particularly challenging and examine what the data actually tells us about the job market. Optimism aside, we need to acknowledge that after many years of relative stability, many things are changing rapidly — and that’s scary.
Reading the UX research jobs market
It’s hard to get a handle on the state of the UX research job market in 2025.
Depending on where you look, you see wildly different messages. In particular, the macroeconomic picture is sometimes at odds with a lot of what we see in UX-specific reports or individual LinkedIn threads.
It’s also emotive. It’s not just data points, but people’s stories and livelihoods, unsurprisingly expressed in strong terms. Like everyone, I’ve got friends and colleagues who have been affected. I hear regularly from people who don’t perceive the same range of opportunities as there used to be in their niche or industry. LinkedIn can be harrowing to read.
Nonetheless, as we think about where UX research is going, it’s important to try to strip the noise from the signal. It dampens the anxiety, it helps us to make better decisions, and it gives us agency to think about the future.
A decade-long growth run has come to an end
The context for today’s anxiety becomes clearer when we look at just how extraordinary the past few years have been for UX research hiring. 2021 and 2022 saw explosive growth in UXR. In fact, during the 2021-2022 peak, we were the fastest-growing of all tech disciplines.

Even when UX role growth was flatter prior to 2021, UX research has represented a growing proportion of all UX roles over the past 10 years.

Since then, new hiring has cooled off considerably, and of course, there have been high-profile layoffs that have affected UX researchers (although I’ve seen no evidence that it has disproportionately affected UX researchers, outside individual companies).
So what’s going on?
Vacancy-wise, it’s hard to know if the market has bottomed out or not. Certainly, 2021/2022 seems to have been an extraordinary time, in hindsight. Although we don’t have more recent data for UX specifically, job postings for software development and information design (as proxies for tech more generally) are still below 2020 levels.


UXPA survey data suggests volatility with no net increase in roles, rather than further contraction: around a third of companies are laying off UXers, while a third are hiring, and a further third are making no changes.

This is interesting as it suggests that we may be looking for growth in the wrong place: the UXPA survey may also over-emphasize the status of UX research in established tech companies, and under-represent the growth of new UX research roles in newer industries or companies.
There are differences region by region and local market by local market. The trends in your city may look different from this, particularly if it’s dominated by one particular industry or employer, or if it has a lot of people looking for a job.
New jobs aren’t the same as old jobs
So it’s a high-churn market. As jobs disappear and new jobs appear, we shouldn’t expect them to be the same jobs. The market is more dynamic and volatile than we’re used to, and so flexibility and resilience are key.
Some industries seem to be growing (medical, financial), while others seem to be shrinking (tech). Although the personal disruption is sorrowful, at an industry level, I think it’s a good thing: we should be moving away from solved, over-invested problem spaces and into new domains where our skills can do the most good.
But why is our field changing?
Four major forces have converged to reshape how organizations think about user research and researchers’ roles within them.
1. There’s a revolution in UX research productivity
UX research is a manual process: 3 projects per quarter is about the limit for one IC researcher doing good work (including time for socializing it). UX research is a skillful job that requires years of training and investment; quite rightly, UX researchers are well-paid and thus expensive to hire. However, that only scales linearly (one extra UXR equals three projects per quarter, two equals six projects per quarter, etc.) and brings problems of complexity (need for management, coordination, duplication of work) that grow along with team size.
But demand for user insights continues to increase. And more recently, organizations have been tempted by other ways to meet that demand…
After years of apparent stasis in UXR practice (for example, the range of methodologies used doesn’t look much different from the late 1990s, and neither do UX researcher workflows), suddenly, there are many new possibilities in our world:
- Research democratization (i.e., the ratio of PWDR to researchers, which has gone from 2:1 in 2020 to 5:1 in 2025).
- Productivity multipliers: Research Ops, remote tools, AI.
- Unlocking the value in previous research, via better knowledge management (research repositories, chatbots).
Why now?
Back in the mid-2010s, tech companies had easy access to money, tools were basic, and Research Ops and AI weren’t on the scene yet. The argument for democratization was still ‘user research is a team sport’: helping teams align and become more user-centered. If you wanted more user insights, it made sense to keep hiring more UX researchers.
In 2025, the world’s very different. Funding has dried up. Tech companies are looking for cost savings and want to show shareholders that they’re investing in AI.
And with the advent of generative AI, better tools, Research Ops, and widespread democratization, alternative routes to scaling user insights are available.
So big structural changes have been brewing for years, and have now converged. But it didn’t have to be like this…
2. Failure to define & own the value of UX research
The ‘golden years’ were a missed opportunity. The rising tide of investment and hiring lulled us into believing we’d resolved questions about UXR’s value, while we focused on scaling and execution instead of solidifying our core proposition.
As times changed, several critical weaknesses became apparent:
- First, our value proposition remained ambiguous and inconsistent. We never collectively decided whether UXR’s primary value lies in illuminating others’ understanding of users, spotting opportunities, accelerating product development, de-risking decisions, or democratizing access to users. This ambiguity left us vulnerable when resources became constrained.
- Second, we over-identified with the processes of primary research (rather than the production and sharing of knowledge). I understand this — my first love is the thrill of conducting primary research — but when we needed to be flexible, or move into higher-value activities like synthesis or consultancy, this association held us back.
- As a consequence, we experienced two waves of disintermediation. The “first disintermediation” occurred as primary research became part of product and design roles through practices like research democratization and Continuous Discovery. The “second disintermediation” is happening now as synthesis — traditionally a domain we’ve tried, but struggled to own — is being claimed by others, with Product teams developing their own knowledge management functions: insight repositories and LLMs to integrate findings across sources.
- Instead of seeking to balance both user and business needs, we skewed enthusiastically towards our role as ‘user advocates’, and engaged only reluctantly with understanding what drives value for our business.
- Fifthly, we’ve struggled to position our unique value relative to other insight functions (Data Science, Marketing Research), creating confusion for stakeholders and territorial disputes between insight providers. This confusion is compounded by our tendency to frame value in terms of “user advocacy” rather than business outcomes, often marginalizing researchers in strategic conversations.
- Finally, we haven’t established widely accepted metrics for research quality or business impact. Without consensus on what constitutes “better” research or how to measure ROI, we’ve been vulnerable to simplistic arguments favoring speed and convenience over depth and rigor.
3. Solved problems
29 years after the launch of Amazon, 17 years after the launch of the iPhone, many standard GUI user journeys represent solved problems. A junior interaction designer (or AI) tasked with designing a checkout flow for an online store has access to a wealth of examples and best practices; there’s much less need for user research than when that journey was brand new. Companies that are 30+ years old, with long-established business models, are in large part owners of solved problems of interaction design, and are tinkering around the edges to optimize them. What’s more, mature organizations employ design systems that both imply codified best practices and funnel teams towards possible solutions for the sake of efficiency.
4. Challenges of scale
As UXR teams have grown, they’ve arguably become less, rather than more, efficient. It’s harder to avoid duplicated work; rivalries spring up and take energy to resolve; there’s more competition for stakeholders’ attention; more management is required. Nobody has time to read everything that’s being produced, let alone process it all. Research Ops has been grappling with this problem of immature research infrastructure with some success, but there’s still a long way to go in making the production and transmission of knowledge in organizations more efficient.
To sum up
UXR in 2025 finds itself squeezed on multiple sides. The nervousness is understandable. It might be comforting to hope that things will just revert to how they were before, and therefore we should simply stay on the same path, or make marginal changes. But that would be a missed opportunity. In the next section, I want to lay out some options that we could be building toward.
What might a hopeful future look like?
Below, I offer three hopeful scenarios for UX researchers. They’re not mutually exclusive, and they combine both defensive (helping to sustain us in our current roles) and prospective (creating new opportunities) properties.
1. Owning the productivity benefits
In this scenario, UXRs harness the potential of AI, democratization, better tools, and Research Ops, and are able to build on their current skill set to become ‘superpowered generalists’.
- An advantage of this approach is that it supports the continuation of a relationship model with partner disciplines (and thus retains product and domain knowledge).
- In particular, UXRs assume responsibility for achieving impact through scaled knowledge management, and lean away somewhat from being identified as a ‘doer of primary research’ — albeit running studies will still be a core part of their role.
- UXR may also evolve towards more of a ‘commissioning’ function, whether those commissioned are methodological specialists (for example, a pricing research expert), external suppliers, or AI agents.
- What happens to the time saved by using AI, etc.? One option is that UXRs simply do more projects per quarter. But that doesn’t move us up the value chain, or address our over-identification with primary research. So, instead, I would recommend that UXRs try to expand their scope by leaning into some of the emerging specialisms described in ‘2: Leaning into adjacent skillsets’ below.
- A risk: Many of the tasks that AI streamlines reflect work that juniors used to do. If that’s the case, where will the next generation of seniors come from?
2. Leaning into adjacent skillsets
In this scenario, UX researchers reshape their value proposition. The focus is less on the execution of primary research and knowledge generation, and more on making change happen.
Here are ten vignettes: ways for UX researchers to evolve their skillset, emerging specialisms, or even roles that might come into existence. Different people may lean towards different vignettes depending on their background and interests.
1. Solution builders
Researchers don’t just identify problems but actively create solutions, embracing participatory design methodologies and an action research mindset. We make prototypes in different media, design services. and deploy AI coding tools to build apps ourselves. We’re not just UX generalists; we identify as ‘creatives’ more generally.
2. Domain-specialist strategists
UX researchers get closer to business and product decision-making, advising or even taking decisions on strategic direction. We’re accountable for the quality of advice that we offer, based on our synthesis and interpretation of evidence collected by others. Researchers become more comfortable speaking in terms of business priorities, in relation to a specific domain such as financial service compliance.
3. Knowledge managers
Placing an emphasis on knowledge transmission rather than on primary research, we act as insight librarians and communicators. We design and manage next-gen knowledge management tools (such as LLM-based chatbots or research repositories). We also focus on telling compelling stories that inspire and reconnect teams to their purpose. Our process is to synthesize insights from different sources into unified narratives, helping understanding of users across organizational silos.
4. AI architects
Moving beyond designing for screens or human users, AI Architects continuously research and orchestrate the intricate interplay of human and AI. They investigate how AI agents communicate and adapt, and how human needs evolve as a result, defining the complex rules and underlying “interfaces” that enable (often autonomous) AI to work seamlessly with both other AI and humans. Their goal is to ensure the entire system functions harmoniously and productively.
5. Learning enablers
We deliver immersions and design learning journeys for product teams, developing hands-on, in-person knowledge that’s impossible to capture in reports. The role of UX researchers becomes about teaching others to engage with users, more than conducting primary research ourselves. We empower product managers, designers, and others to get closer to users and ask the right questions.
6. Methodological specialists
UX researchers lean into methodological specialisms (for example, ethnography, accessibility, sensitive topics) that are unsuitable for AI or part-time researchers from other disciplines. We leave easier, more general research to others, and focus on the projects that only we have the skills to do.
7. Unified insights
UX researchers join with marketing researchers and data scientists to form single, unified insights departments. The distinctions between these disciplines dissolve, and their skill sets overlap. Researchers learn and draw on a broader range of techniques in their projects or collaborate with specialists from other research backgrounds.
8. Ethical technology stewards
We focus on the long-term impacts of technology on users and society. We create responsible innovation frameworks, advocate for user safety and privacy, and help teams navigate complex ethical dilemmas in AI, automation, and other emerging technologies.
9. Research operations
We design and build research infrastructure to maximize impact. We implement participant management systems, create repositories that surface insights, and develop democratization frameworks that empower non-researchers with appropriate tools, guidance, and training.
10. Community weavers
We focus on communities as systems for knowledge transmission and action. We identify commonalities and aligned interests among our partners, and develop community structures, activities, rituals, and programs to bring them together (whether formal or informal) and make them aligned and productive. We build cultures and mechanisms of knowledge sharing, often horizontally across teams and organizations.
3. New frontiers
Already, UXRs dissatisfied with their current influence or mindful of changes to their field are exploring other roles. In the past couple of years, I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve been asked by UXRs whether they should consider a move into product management or train up on data science. As the benefits of UXR are eroded (particularly the intrinsic rewards of conducting primary research), this trend may increase both among tenured workers and new market entrants eyeing a career path. In this scenario, retaining the best talent within UXR gets harder.
Voting with our feet may also mean moving to new industries, such as AI, green tech, or space. These changes are overdue. Over the years, UXR hiring has ‘followed the money’ into well-capitalized large tech companies, with the result that a disproportionate amount of UXR talent is focused on a relatively small set of relatively solved problems, and has become more conservative in its appetite for risk and innovation. That’s made us slower to adapt when change happens quickly, for example, in needing to adapt our methodological toolkit to AI-mediated experiences. As new industries rise with new, unsolved design problems, that may change. Our skills are needed there: in the spaces of greatest uncertainty and benefit to others.
Null scenario: nothing much changes
Although I’ve laid out three scenarios for change, it’s also possible that current ways of working are so entrenched, and UXR labor is so concentrated in a small number of companies with set practices, that the status quo rolls on. This wouldn’t be a terrible outcome, but it would be a missed opportunity, and longer term, I would predict a slow decline (increasing commodification of work, best talent leaving, salaries reverting to the white collar mean).
What’s next?
Dear reader, if you’ve got this far, I would love to hear from you. In particular, did you agree/disagree with any of my interpretations? Do you find any of the ten potential futures ‘hopeful’? Let me know.
Thanks to the people who contributed feedback to this article, in particular:
Julia Barrett, Rich Brady, Jake Burghardt, Faisal Chaudhuri, Julia Fontana, Ben Garvey-Cubbon, Christian Gonzalez, Melanie Herrmann, Omead Kohanteb, Kristen Zelenka Lee, Kate Towsey, Katie Tzanidou, Utkarsh Seth, Nikki Anderson, Katharine Norwood, Svenja Ottovordemgentschenfelde, Carl Pearson, Amulya Tata, Kat Thackray, Steph Troeth, Renato Verdugo, Julie Schiller, and Nataliia Vlasenko.
- 1PWDR means people who aren’t in a specialist research role, but who nonetheless do user research. Their job titles might be Product Manager, Product Designer, UX Designer, Engineer, and so on. They may or may not have training in research methods, and may or may not be supervised by researchers.
Featured image courtesy: Victor.
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