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Received yesterday โ€” 12 August 2025

Trump's pick for BLS chief has floated pausing monthly jobs reports. Investors and economists say it's a terrible idea.

12 August 2025 at 20:15
trump
Trump's pick for Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner suggested suspending the jobs report.

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

  • Trump's Bureau of Labor Statistics nominee floated halting the US jobs report in a Fox News Digital interview.
  • E.J. Antoni, a Heritage Foundation economist, was nominated after Trump fired the previous commissioner.
  • The BLS has faced challenges with data accuracy due to limited resources and response rates.

E.J. Antoni, President Donald Trump's pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the chief economist at the right-leaning Heritage Foundation, floated pausing the monthly jobs report amid accuracy concerns. Market pros say that would be a terrible move.

Antoni told Fox News Digital on August 4 in an interview before his nomination that, "until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data."

Economists and market strategists told Business Insider on Tuesday that such a move would be damaging for investors and economic planners. It could lower trust in the timeliest data on unemployment and job growth, which gives insight into how corporate earnings will perform and the broader state of the US economy.

"The markets depend on employment reports and the inflation reports and those types of things for direction," said Lance Roberts, the chief strategist at RIA Advisors, which manages $2 billion. "You try to suspend that data, without really good reason, that's going to cause problems for markets."

Roberts said that it's important to keep the monthly pace for the non-farm payrolls report, and that revisions are part of the data-collection process.

"We revise GDP data every year, and then we revise it every three years, and the markets never freak out," he said, adding: "Markets run real-time, they need real-time data."

Max Stier, the president and CEO of Partnership for Public Service, told Business Insider that BLS data plays a key role in both the overall economy and people's financial decisions.

"It is imperative that the bureau continues to report this information in a timely, unbiased way to preserve its trustworthiness as an institution," Stier said.

Stier added that if Antoni is confirmed by the Senate to take on the commissioner role, he urges "Antoni to partner with the bureau's expert civil service to maintain the nonpartisan collection and presentation of their economic data."

Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, said the monthly jobs data shouldn't be suspended or delayed.

"The biggest revisions to jobs data often happen when the economy hits a turning point โ€” economists and economic policymakers largely understand this," Renter said. "To slow the availability of the data at such a juncture could severely hamper the ability of the Fed to conduct effective monetary policy, among other things."

Not everyone agrees, however. Irene Tunkel, the chief strategist of US equity strategy at BCA Research, told Business Insider on Tuesday that moving to a quarterly pace where the BLS has more time to survey businesses would be a better approach. Theoretically, a quarterly cadence would result in fewer revisions, Tunkel said, adding that the market can rely on private data from sources like ADP for more real-time information.

But private data sources don't have the funding that the BLS does, and are therefore even less reliable, said Preston Caldwell, a US economist at Morningstar.

"If markets believed the CES conveyed no useful information, they would already ignore it โ€” no damage done. So why suspend it? There's not a good substitute for the CES," Caldwell wrote in an email, referencing the Current Employment Statistics survey that produces the monthly job creation numbers from the BLS.

"If there was a cheap way to do it, a third-party data provider might be doing it already. But that's not the case."

Antoni's comments follow a worse-than-expected July jobs report

Antoni was nominated to the BLS role on August 11 after Trump fired former commissioner and Biden appointee Dr. Erika McEntarfer on August 1.

"Our Economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

A disappointing jobs report showed the US economy added 73,000 jobs in July, missing the consensus 106,000, and revisions to the previous two months showed there were way fewer jobs added than earlier reported. Revisions are a normal part of the BLS data collection, though the agency has struggled in recent years with limited resources and declining survey response rates.

The president claimed that the data was "RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad."

'"How on earth are businesses supposed to plan โ€” or how is the Fed supposed to conduct monetary policy โ€” when they don't know how many jobs are being added or lost in our economy? It's a serious problem that needs to be fixed immediately," Antoni told Fox News Digital, adding, "major decision-makers from Wall Street to D.C. rely on these numbers, and a lack of confidence in the data has far-reaching consequences."

Antoni has not yet been confirmed as commissioner. The Heritage Foundation and BLS did not immediately respond to Business Insider's requests for comment.

"Hiding the numbers just makes it that much harder to use the tools available to avoid further economic pain, prepare for what people need, and guard against a recession," former acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su told Business Insider.

Asked whether the BLS would continue to put out a monthly payrolls report, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a press conference on Tuesday that she believes that will be the case.

"I believe that is the plan and that's the hope and that these monthly reports will be data that the American people can trust," Leavitt said.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Received before yesterday

The Fed holds rates steady for the fifth time this year, but some officials think it's the wrong call

30 July 2025 at 18:00
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell said the Fed will hold interest rates steady in July.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

  • The Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady, aligning with market expectations.
  • Strong job growth and rising inflation likely influenced the Fed's decision to maintain rates.
  • Two Fed governors dissented from the decision, preferring lower rates.

America's central bank is once again holding interest rates steady, although two Fed governors disagreed with the move in a rare departure from the committee's typical unanimity.

The Federal Open Market Committee announced Wednesday that it will not cut its benchmark rate, holding for the fifth time this year. It's a decision in line with forecasts: CME FedWatch, which anticipates interest-rate changes based on market moves, had projected a 96.9% chance of a hold in July. The Fed said in its July 30 statement that strong jobs numbers and a recent uptick in inflation contributed to the call.

Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle W. Bowman dissented from the hold decision, saying they preferred a rate cut.

"What you want from everybody, and also from a dissenter, is a clear explanation of what you're thinking and what your argument is, and we had that today," Chair Jerome Powell said at the press conference. "It was a good meeting, and people really thought about this."

Powell added that "the majority of the committee" believes that current inflation and employment markers call for "moderately restrictive policy for now."

The chair said that the US is in a "solid position" economically, and the labor market is in balance. There's a slowing supply of jobs and demand for workers, contributing to a historically-low unemployment rate, he said. And, while Powell said the full impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs "remain to be seen," he said the price of many consumer goods are rising, which is a contrast from easing inflation on service prices.

"If we cut rates too soon, maybe we didn't finish the job with inflation. History is dotted with examples of that," Powell said. "And if we cut too late, maybe we're doing unnecessary damage to the labor market. We're trying to get that timing right."

Fed policy has gotten pushback from the Trump administration

While there's still time for the Fed's two penciled-in cuts in 2025, some economists and Trump administration leaders hoped for a change sooner rather than later. They've put the central bank โ€” and Powell โ€” in the hot seat.

President Donald Trump has consistently pushed for Powell to cut rates, writing in a July 8 Truth Social post that "'Too Late' Jerome Powell," "has been whining like a baby about non-existent Inflation for months, and refusing to do the right thing. CUT INTEREST RATES JEROME โ€” NOW IS THE TIME!" Trump has also suggested removing and replacing Powell before the end of his tenure next year, though Wall Street leaders and top CEOs have warned that changing the Fed's leadership could have significant market consequences.

Trump's cabinet members have echoed his criticisms. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview last week that the Fed is "fear-mongering over tariffs," and "I think that what we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful." Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick added that Powell is "doing the worst job" and "I don't know why he's torturing America this way. Our rates should be lower."

Waller, the dissenting Fed governor, also pushed for a rate cut ahead of Wednesday's meeting: "With inflation near target and the upside risks to inflation limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates before we cut the policy rate."

The Fed's play to keep rates steady is a response to key indicators of economic health. The US labor market exceeded expectations by adding 147,000 jobs in June โ€” due mostly to growth in the healthcare and hospitality sectors โ€” and unemployment cooled to 4.1%. Consumer sentiment and retail spending are making a small recovery from early summer dips, and GDP rose more than expected this month. Inflation climbed to 2.7% in June from 2.4% in May, moving further from the Fed's 2% goal. Keeping rates unchanged is a strategy to curb further inflation while the Fed still sees positive momentum in the job market, Powell said.

Powell has also said that he's watching Trump's tariff agenda closely. The White House's next planned tariff deadline is August 1, which could place new levies on top trade partners. The president struck a deal with the European Union earlier this week, which sets a 15% tariff on most imported European goods, a reduction from Trump's planned 30% tariff.

The Fed chair emphasized at Wednesday's press conference that his top priorities are to promote maximum US employment and stable prices, regardless of politics and policy.

"The credibility of the Fed on price stability is very, very important. People believe that we will bring inflation down," he told Congress last month, adding, "That credibility once lost is very expensive to regain."

Going forward, Powell said he is thinking about the reliability of the economic data. These concerns come as the White House's DOGE office continues to cut staff and agency budgets across the federal government.

"The government data really is the gold standard in data," he said. "We need it to be good and to be able to rely on it. We're not going to able to substitute that. We'll have to make due what what we have, but I really hope we have what we need."

Read the original article on Business Insider

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