US President Donald Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen were set for make-or-break talks in Scotland Sunday, aimed at ending a months-long transatlantic trade standoff, as negotiations went down to the wire.

Trump has said he sees a one-in-two chance of a deal with the European Union, which faces an across-the-board US levy of 30 percent unless it strikes a trade pact by August 1 — with Washington warning Sunday there would be “no extensions.”

Von der Leyen’s European Commission, negotiating on behalf of EU countries, is pushing hard for a deal to salvage a trading relationship worth an annual $1.9 trillion in goods and services.

According to an EU diplomat briefed ahead of the meeting, set for 4:30 pm (1530 GMT), the contours of a deal are in place after talks went late into Saturday night — but key issues still need settling.

And of course the final word lies with Trump.

“A political deal is on the table — but it needs the sign-off from Trump, who wants to negotiate this down to the very last moment,” the diplomat told AFP.

The proposal, they said, involves a baseline levy of around 15 percent on EU exports to the United States — the level secured by Japan — with carve-outs for critical sectors including aircraft and spirits, though not for wine.

Any deal will need to be approved by EU member states — whose ambassadors, on a visit to Greenland, were updated by the commission Sunday morning, and would meet again after any accord.

According to the EU diplomat, the 27 countries broadly endorsed the deal as envisaged — while recalling their negotiating red lines.

Baseline tariff

The Trump-von der Leyen meeting was taking place in Turnberry on Scotland’s southwestern coast, where the president owns a luxury golf resort. He was out on the course for much of the weekend.

The 79-year-old Trump said Friday he hoped to strike “the biggest deal of them all” with the EU.

“I think we have a good 50-50 chance,” the president said, citing sticking points on “maybe 20 different things”.

The EU is focused on getting a deal to avoid sweeping tariffs that would further harm its sluggish economy — while holding out retaliation as a last resort.

Under the proposal described to AFP, the EU would commit to ramp up purchases of US liquefied natural gas, along with other investment pledges.

Pharmaceuticals — a key export for Ireland — would also face a 15-percent levy, as would semi-conductors.

The EU also appears to have secured a compromise on steel that could allow a certain quota into the United States before tariffs would apply, the diplomat said.

Questions on auto sector

Hit by multiple waves of tariffs since Trump reclaimed the White House, the EU is currently subject to a 25-percent levy on cars, 50 percent on steel and aluminium, and an across-the-board tariff of 10 percent, which Washington threatens to hike to 30 percent in a no-deal scenario.

It was unclear how the proposed deal would impact tariff levels on the auto industry, crucial for France and Germany, with carmakers already reeling from the levies imposed so far.

While 15 percent would be much higher than pre-existing US tariffs on European goods — averaging 4.8 percent — it would mirror the status quo, with companies currently facing an additional flat rate of 10 percent.

Should talks fail, EU states have greenlit counter tariffs on $109 billion (93 billion euros) of US goods including aircraft and cars to take effect in stages from August 7. Brussels is also drawing up a list of US services to potentially target.

Beyond that, countries like France say Brussels should not be afraid to deploy a so-called trade “bazooka” — EU legislation designed to counter coercion that can involve restricting access to its market and public contracts.

But such a step would mark a major escalation with Washington.

Ratings dropping

Trump has embarked on a campaign to reshape US trade with the world, and has vowed to hit dozens of countries with punitive tariffs if they do not reach a pact with Washington by August 1.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday the August 1 deadline was firm and there will be “no extensions, no more grace periods.”

Polls suggest however the American public is unconvinced by the White House strategy, with a recent Gallup survey showing his approval rating at 37 percent — down 10 points from January.

Having promised “90 deals in 90 days,” Trump’s administration has so far unveiled five, including with Britain, Japan and the Philippines.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Thailand launched air strikes on Cambodian military targets on Thursday as Cambodia fired rockets and artillery, killing at least 11 civilians, in a dramatic escalation of a long-running border row between the two neighbours.

The neighbours are locked in a bitter spat over an area known as the Emerald Triangle, where the borders of both countries and Laos meet, and which is home to several ancient temples.

The squabble has dragged on for decades, flaring into bloody military clashes more than 15 years ago and again in May, when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a firefight.

The conflict blazed up on Thursday, with Cambodia firing rockets and artillery shells into Thailand and the Thai military scrambling F-16 jets to carry out air strikes.

The Thai ministry of public health said at least 11 civilians had been killed, most of them in a rocket strike near a petrol station in Sisaket province.

Footage from the scene showed smoke pouring from the roof of a convenience store attached to the petrol station. Provincial officials said most of the dead were students inside the shop when the attack happened.

Six Thai air force jets were deployed from Ubon Ratchathani province, hitting two “Cambodian military targets on the ground”, according to Thai military deputy spokesperson Ritcha Suksuwanon.

Both sides blamed the other for starting the fighting, which erupted near two temples on the border between the Thai province of Surin and Cambodia’s Oddar Meanchey.

Cambodian defence ministry spokeswoman Maly Socheata said in a statement that Thai troops launched an “armed assault on Cambodian forces”.

“In response, the Cambodian armed forces exercised their legitimate right to self-defence, in full accordance with international law, to repel the Thai incursion and protect Cambodia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” she said.

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to address what his foreign ministry labelled “unprovoked military aggression”.

Thailand’s government spokesman, meanwhile, accused Cambodia of being “inhumane, brutal and war-hungry”, and Bangkok’s foreign ministry said all border crossings had been shut and nearby residents evacuated.

The Thai military blamed Cambodian soldiers for firing first, and later accused them of a “targeted attack on civilians”, saying two BM-21 rockets had hit a community in Surin’s Kap Choeng district, wounding three people.

According to the Thai military, the clashes began around 7:35 am (0035 GMT) when a unit guarding Ta Muen temple heard a Cambodian drone overhead.

Later, six armed Cambodian soldiers, including one carrying a rocket-propelled grenade launcher, approached a barbed-wired fence in front of the Thai post, the army said.

Around 8:20 am, Cambodian forces opened fire toward the eastern side of the temple, about 200 metres from the Thai base.

Thailand’s acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said “the situation requires careful handling, and we must act in accordance with international law”.

“We will do our best to protect our sovereignty,” he said.

In a Facebook post, Thailand’s embassy in Phnom Penh urged its nationals to leave Cambodia “as soon as possible” unless they had urgent reasons to remain.

China, a close ally of Cambodia, said it was “deeply concerned” about the clashes, calling for dialogue — while also urging its citizens in Cambodia to avoid the country’s frontier with Thailand.

Long-running row

The violence came hours after Thailand expelled the Cambodian ambassador and recalled its own envoy in protest after five members of a Thai military patrol were wounded by a landmine.

On Thursday morning, Cambodia announced it was downgrading ties to “the lowest level”, pulling out all but one of its diplomats and expelling their Thai equivalents from Phnom Penh.

Recent weeks have seen a series of tit-for-tat swipes by both sides, with Thailand restricting border crossings and Cambodia halting certain imports.

The border row also kicked off a domestic political crisis in Thailand, where prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been suspended from office pending an ethics probe over her conduct.

A diplomatic call between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen, Cambodia’s former longtime ruler and father of Hun Manet, was leaked from the Cambodian side, sparking a judicial investigation.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim called on both sides to “stand down” and start talks.

Malaysia currently chairs the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which both Thailand and Cambodia are members.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Jeep owner Stellantis said on Monday it suffered a massive loss in the first half of the year, when it felt the first impact of new US tariffs and took a massive charge following a change in US laws.

The 2.3-billion-euro ($2.7-billion) net loss in the first half of the year came as sales in North America continued to slump, down 25 percent by volume in the second quarter year-on-year.

The carmaker, whose stable of brands also includes Peugeot, Citroen and Fiat, said first-half net revenues dropped 12.6 percent to 74.3 billion euros, according to the preliminary and unaudited results.

Sales of vehicles fell by six percent in the second quarter year-on-year, after having dropped nine percent in the first three months of 2025.

Stellantis said “the early effects of US tariffs” had a 300-million-euro negative impact and disrupted its plans to boost its struggling performance in North America.

Automakers have struggled to respond to US President Donald Trump’s new US tariff of 25 percent on imported cars that are not largely made within North America.

The company, which also owns the Chrysler, Dodge and Ram Truck brands, paused production at some plants in Canada and Mexico in April as the tariffs went into force.

Stellantis said the sharp drop in North American sales volume was “due to factors including the reduced manufacture and shipments of imported vehicles, most impacted by tariffs,” as well as lower sales for corporate fleets.

Restructuring charge

Stellantis also took a 3.3-billion-euro charge, which it said was “primarily related to programme cancellation costs and platform impairments, net impact of the recent legislation eliminating the CAFE penalty rate and restructuring”.

Trump’s massive tax and spending legislation, approved earlier this month, removed the penalties for not respecting the so-called CAFE fuel economy targets, meaning automakers can produce and sell more higher polluting cars in the United States.

The company said it was in the early stage of taking action to improve performance and profitability, with new products expected to deliver a larger impact in the second half of 2025.

Stellantis suspended its financial guidance in April due to the heightened uncertainty generated by US tariffs.

Analysts at finance group ODDO BHF said a drop in sales was widely expected and noted that new chief executives often clean house by passing new provisions or restructuring charges.

Company veteran Antonio Filosa took over as chief executive in June and immediately launched a management shake-up.

Filosa headed up the North American region that accounts for most company profits and whose struggles last year precipitated the sacking of Carlos Tavares, and has retained responsibility for the region.

While the overall six-percent drop in sales volumes was in line with analyst expectations, according to ODDO BHF, the 25-percent drop was double the 12 percent foreseen by analysts.

Shares in Stellantis fell 2.1 percent in morning trading on the Paris stock exchange, which was 0.4 percent lower overall.

Stellantis said it would release audited first half results on July 29 as scheduled.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s future was unclear Monday after his coalition appeared to have disastrously lost its upper house majority in elections that saw strong gains by a right-wing populist party.

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed almost continuously since 1955, and its partner Komeito had to win 50 seats in Sunday’s vote but they secured only around 41, according to local media projections.

Voters angry at inflation turned to other parties, notably the “Japanese first” Sanseito, which made strong gains with its “anti-globalist” drive reminiscent of US President Donald Trump’s agenda.

The debacle comes only months after Ishiba’s coalition also lost its majority in the lower house, suffering the LDP’s worst result in 15 years.

Ishiba, 68, a self-avowed policy “geek” seen as a safe pair of hands when he won the LDP leadership in September — on his fifth attempt — was tight-lipped late Sunday about his future.

“It’s a difficult situation, and we have to take it very humbly and seriously,” Ishiba told broadcaster NHK. Asked about his future, he said only that he “cannot speak lightly of it”.

“We can’t do anything until we see the final results, but we want to be very aware of our responsibility,” Ishiba added.

If he goes, it was unclear who might step up as the LDP’s 11th premier since 2000 now that the government needs opposition support in both chambers.

“Ishiba may be replaced by someone else, but it’s not clear who will be the successor,” Hidehiro Yamamoto, politics and sociology professor at the University of Tsukuba, told AFP.

Rice price

After years of stagnant or falling prices, consumers in the world’s fourth-largest economy have been squeezed by inflation since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

In particular, the price of rice has doubled, squeezing many household budgets despite government handouts.

Voter Hisayo Kojima — one of legions of older people in Japan’s falling and ageing population — said outside a voting station on Sunday that her pension “is being cut shorter and shorter”.

“We have paid a lot to support the pension system. This is the most pressing issue for me,” the 65-year-old told AFP in Tokyo.

Not helping is lingering resentment about an LDP funding scandal, and US tariffs of 25 percent due to bite from August 1 if there is no trade deal with the United States.

Japanese imports are already subject to a 10 percent tariff, while the auto industry, which accounts for eight percent of jobs, is reeling from a 25 percent levy.

Weak export data last week, which showed plummeting US-bound auto deliveries, stoked fears that Japan could tip into a technical recession.

Despite Ishiba securing an early meeting with Trump in February, and sending his trade envoy to Washington seven times, there has been no accord.

‘Japanese first’

The last time the LDP and Komeito failed to win a majority in the upper house was in 2010, having already fallen below the threshold in 2007.

That was followed by a rare change of government in 2009, when the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan governed for a rocky three years.

Today, the opposition is fragmented, and chances are slim that the parties can form an alternative government.

Populist opposition party Sanseito wants “stricter rules and limits” on immigration, opposes “globalism” and “radical” gender policies, and wants a rethink on decarbonisation and vaccines.

Last week, it was forced to deny any links to Moscow — which has backed populist parties elsewhere — after a candidate was interviewed by Russian state media.

“They put into words what I had been thinking about but couldn’t put into words for many years,” one voter told AFP at a Sanseito rally.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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